Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 221909

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
209 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018


Tonight and Monday...Forecast Confidence Is High.

A 500 mb mid level low will remain well south of the area on
Monday, with weak ridging across southern Wisconsin. The
influence of the surface high centered well east of the area will
keep things dry. Only a few high clouds.

Monday night Through Tuesday Night...Forecast Confidence Is

The 500 mb low moves slowly east northeast Monday night into
Tuesday, staying well southeast of the area. A few models bring a
hundredth of precipitation into the far southeast on the
periphery of the 500 mb low circulation. Kept a very low PoP in
for now. The north edge of Mid and even some low clouds may brush
the southeast.

Cold air advection occurs later Tuesday night on the backside of
the eastern U.S. low. The models are in decent agreement with a
rather strong 500 mb shortwave trough moving southeast across
Wisconsin Tuesday night.

The main question will be how moisture moves into the area ahead
of the trough. For now, have only a few north areas with low end


Wednesday Through Sunday...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

A period of quiet weather looks in store for Wednesday into
Thursday morning, as high pressure passes through or just south of
the region.

Models then are indicating a cold front to move southeast through
the region Thursday or Thursday evening. They also bring a fairly
robust and deep 500 mb shortwave trough southeast through the
region. There is some moisture to work, along with steep low
level lapse rates. Continued blended model PoPs for Thursday into

Quiet weather then returns Friday night into Sunday. Temperatures
should be a little below seasonal normals, moderating back to
normal Saturday and Sunday.



VFR with high pressure centered over the eastern Great Lakes.
Light northeast to east winds.



High pressure centered over the eastern Great Lakes will bring
light northeast to east winds and low waves. Elevated northeast
winds will bring building waves Tuesday night into Wednesday, that
may result in a Small Craft Advisory.




Tonight/Monday and Aviation/Marine...Hentz
Monday Night through Sunday...Hentz is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.