133
FXUS64 KTSA 121905
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
205 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of this afternoon through tonight)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Upper low moving east of the Four Corners Region this afternoon with
subtropical jet lifting northeast through Texas into Oklahoma.
Atmosphere has become marginally unstable across portions of area
ahead of the more overcast conditions. Widespread rain with embedded
thunderstorms will continue spreading into the region this evening
into the overnight hours in zone of stronger WAA. Locally heavy
rainfall will be possible, especially along and north of I-44, where
some flooding concerns could develop with any training storms.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Sunday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

As low lifts into Kansas late tonight into Monday, additional
showers/thunderstorms will develop ahead of cold front, which is
forecast to move into northeast Oklahoma around mid day. Modest
diurnal heating, coupled with steep mid level lapse rates and
stronger deep layer shear, will support a few strong to marginally
severe storms across SE OK/NW AR into the afternoon hours with a
wind/hail threat.

Scattered showers with a few embedded thunderstorms will remain
possible Monday night as main upper level trough axis swings
through overnight. A few lingering showers during the day Tuesday
are possible on backside of upper low, before precipitation
shifts east of northwest Arkansas by Tuesday afternoon.

Shower/thunderstorm chances ramp back up again Thursday into
Friday as a series of upper disturbances traverse with a weak cold
front sagging into area. Locally heavy rainfall could be possible
during this time as PWATs climb into the 1.5-1.6 inch range ahead
of boundary.

A little more uncertainty further into the extended forecast next
weekend with a larger spread in the models. In general, warming
trend expect with high temperatures running several degrees above
normal.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Area of light to moderate showers across western and central OK
will continue to make gradual progress east through the remainder
of the afternoon. An eventual increase in precip coverage through
the forecast area is expected closer to 00z and continue beyond
that, with transition to MVFR conditions at most sites in the
03z-06z time frame. This period will also see an increase in
instability, so the PROB30 for thunder at all sites is maintained
through a good part of Monday morning. Indications are that IFR
ceilings will become more prevalent by around 12z, with at least
some potential for LIFR conditions in thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   61  77  59  79 /  90  60  20  10
FSM   63  79  61  79 /  70  70  30  30
MLC   62  79  58  80 /  70  50  20  10
BVO   58  76  56  79 /  90  70  30  10
FYV   59  77  57  75 /  70  80  50  50
BYV   59  75  58  72 /  70  80  50  60
MKO   61  76  58  75 /  80  70  30  20
MIO   61  74  58  74 /  90  90  50  40
F10   61  77  57  77 /  80  60  20  10
HHW   63  80  59  80 /  50  50  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...14