513
FXUS61 KGYX 261728
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
128 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring drier air along with warm temperatures
for the coming weekend. Surface low pressure may approach the
Gulf of Maine early next week, with unsettled weather moving
into the region mid week. Temperatures remain warm through the
period, with increasing humidity next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
130pm Update...Quick update to bring in a few more clouds this
afternoon as cu has rapidly expanded. Otherwise not many
changes, very comfortable this afternoon.

930am Update...Slight cast of elevated smoke passed over
southern ME and NH this morning, HRRR/RAP Smoke do bring another
plume over Quebec into the area this afternoon. While this is
expected to remain elevated, we will have deeper mixing today.
This will help bring some low level winds to the surface,
already underway. Also brought dew point temps down a couple
degrees given the dry sounding profiles. Mostly sunny day
expected, still mentioning some sprinkles in the mountains late
afternoon as weak boundary crosses into the area.

550am Update...
A few very light showers will continue at times in the northern
mountains this morning before diminishing. The latest Namnest
also indicates there will be a slight chance of a shower north
late in the day as well. Otherwise, very quiet with mostly
sunny skies downwind of the mountains. Temperatures will top out
at near or above normal levels.

Prev Disc...
An upper level trough will continue to slowly exit the region
today. Dry air will allow for mostly sunny skies across the
region. Nevertheless, the exiting trough combined with upslope
winds across the northern mountains may allow for a brief
sprinkle or shower along the higher terrain. Any precipitation
would be light.

A northwesterly gradient will allow for offshore winds along the
coast. Therefore, highest temperatures this afternoon will be
near the shoreline where readings may top out in the 80 to 85
degree range. Elsewhere, expect mainly upper 70s to lower 80s
for afternoon highs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A ridge of high pressure will build towards our forecast area
tonight from the Great Lakes region. Have chosen to use a blend
of MAV/MET guidance to lean towards a cooler solution for
overnight lows. With the ridge building in to the region, clear
skies and light winds will allow for radiational cooling.
Overnight lows will mostly fall through the 50s, but some upper
40s will be possible in the mountain regions. Patchy fog will
develop across some of the inland valleys.

The ridge continue over the region on Saturday. With warm air
advection beginning, temperatures will be slightly warmer than
Friday, mainly in the 80s with some upper 80s possible over
southern New Hampshire. Late day sea breezes may form along the
immediate coast in the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Overview: Broad high pressure through the weekend brings warm
but quiet weather to the region. The warming trend continues
into early next week, with the next chance for more consistent
rainfall into the middle of next week. Trends bring some
uncertainty to temperatures early week.

Details: Broad high pressure will have its center pass south of
New England. This should provide ample sun to the region as
well as drier continental air that keeps humidity down. The weak
flow and warm interior temps in the mid to upper 80s should
allow for afternoon seabreeze on Sunday.

While a warm up has been called for into next week, there is
uncertainty of late as some guidance displays surface low
pressure making an approach to the Gulf of Maine Sunday night
into Monday. This low develops at the base of the passing high
pressure this weekend, roughly off the coast of North Carolina.
Adrift in the broad high, steering flow is enough to pull this
low north as it deepens. Occlusion and stacking with the upper
trough takes place fairly quick, before the feature approaches
the New England coast. This tends to weaken and fan modeled
precip over the coastal waters, and confidence is low in
placement at this time. Thus PoP forecast doesnt bring much
mention of rain into Monday.

Coming full circle, this could result in greater cloud cover
and thus impacts to daytime temperatures. So while temperatures
are fairly locked in for the weekend, this becomes more
uncertain into Monday and Tuesday. Current forecasts in the
upper 80s may taper down to the mid or lower 80s depending on
cloud depth.

By Tuesday, the overall high will have translated east more, and
this puts much of the East Coast in return flow ahead of
incoming low cutting across the Great Lakes. This leads to a
period of unsettled weather for the region with rain chances
lingering perhaps to late next week. This will bring a bump in
humidity with temperatures staying in the 80s. Will need to
watch these trends as resulting heat index could jump into the
90s next week. Should rain be more prolific, would expect these
hot temps to be harder to reach at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term...Mainly VFR conditions today with the exception of
possible brief periods of MVFR in any light and widely scattered
showers across portions of the mountains. VFR conditions
expected tonight with localized IFR conditions in inland valley
fog. VFR all areas on Saturday.

Long Term...VFR this weekend with some valley fog development
overnight. Clouds may thicken and lower Monday, but uncertain
whether these approach restrictions. Unsettled weather into
Tuesday and mid week will bring more in the way of SHRA as well
as lower ceilings.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...West to northwesterly winds today will remain just
below SCA thresholds. The gradient will diminish tonight into
Saturday with localized sea breezes forming during the afternoon
near the shoreline.

Long Term...Below SCA conditions this weekend as broad high
pressure passes. One feature to watch would be the potential
development of a surface low pressure system off the East Coast
that steers northward towards the New England coast into Monday.
This may result in increased wave heights/swell with waves 7+
feet possible in vicinity of the Gulf of Maine early next week.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...Cannon/Cornwell
SHORT TERM...Cannon
LONG TERM...Cornwell