Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME
Issued by NWS Portland, ME
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
778 FXUS61 KGYX 031540 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 1040 AM EST Sun Nov 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Cooler and dry conditions will prevail today as high pressure moves over the region. High pressure moves offshore Monday with a warm front lifting through New England Monday night or Tuesday. Very warm conditions return Tuesday into Wednesday before a cold front brings a cooling trend the second half of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 1040 AM Update...Minor update to reflect observational trends. 625AM Update...The forecast remains on track at this hour on this chilly morning. Most locations are currently sitting in the 20s as of 6AM, but Sanford and Fryeburg (a couple of the normally cooler spots) are reporting temps of 18 degrees. Previous... Stubborn cloud cover in the mountains continues to outperform model guidance thanks to sufficient moisture in the 3000-4000 ft AGL layer and low-level upslope flow. The same is true east of Augusta in an area of low-level convergence. This has kept temperatures "warmer" over these areas while areas to the south cooled off efficiently with the clear skies and light winds. Latest satellite imagery shows evidence that these clouds may be starting to erode with the expectation of largely clearing out by mid morning but could be a little later if the NAM is to be believed. The clouds east of Augusta are expected to dissipate within a couple of hours. Otherwise, a sunny day is ahead with height rises and plenty of dry air aloft as high pressure continues to build in from the west. Similar temperatures are expected to those of yesterday with highs ranging from the mid 40s to lower 50s but with lighter winds. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... High pressure settles more or less directly overhead tonight offering excellent conditions for radiational cooling. With how dry the air is expect temperatures to drop very quickly once the sun goes down. The one caveat is that cirrus will increase overnight but don`t think it will be enough to level off temperatures until late (if at all). Regardless, it looks to be a chilly night with lows in the 20s and mid-upper teens in some of valleys and normally cooler locations. On Monday, a low pressure system heading toward the Great Lakes will shift the surface high pressure offshore into the Gulf of Maine by the afternoon. Ahead of this low pressure, clouds will lower and thicken during the day with mostly cloudy conditions for much of the area from late morning onward. Could see a bit of light rain or light snow across the far north and mountains as we get toward late afternoon or early evening as a warm front approaches, but the low levels might still be too dry for this to occur. The clouds are expected to keep highs in the mid to upper 40s for most except southern NH could still see lower 50s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Clouds will continue across the region on Monday night into Tuesday morning as warm air advection continue across a broad warm front. By late in the day, the mild southwesterly flow will have an impact on the region as H8 temperatures soar to near +13C. Widespread 60s with well above normal temperatures can be expected and a few readings near 70 degrees will reach southwest interior Maine and southern New Hampshire. This forecast is slightly above most available guidance solutions and with any scattered showers once again confined to the north. 12Z operational models and ensemble solutions suggest a cold front will begin to cross the region on Wednesday. Similar to last week, cold air will hang back to our northwest allowing for very warm temperatures for this time of the hear once again. Widespread 70s can be expected, even along much of the shoreline. The record high for November 6th is 71 degrees set back in 2020. Cooler and relatively dry air will spread across the Northeast due to high pressure through the end of the week and start of the weekend. A strong cold front may allow for a stray rain shower across the south on Thursday, with perhaps a few snow showers in the mountains. && .AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Short Term...Low-end VFR cigs expected to remain at HIE early this morning, but these should become more FEW-SCT by 12-14Z. Sunny/VFR elsewhere today. VFR prevails all sites tonight and Monday with increasing clouds, but these will be the middle and high variety. Long Term...Mainly VFR conditions for much of the period. The greatest chance for MVFR conditions will be across the north where scattered but brief showers can be expected most days. && .MARINE... Short Term...Conditions remain below SCA thresholds today through Monday. Winds will steadily decrease as high pressure builds in from the west today and then settles overhead tonight. The high shifts east Monday bringing a return to southerly flow, which will start to increase late in the day. Long Term...An increasing southwesterly gradient will develop ahead of an approaching cold front Tuesday into Wednesday allowing for SCA conditions. A gusty cold front may cross the region late in the week allowing for increasing west to west northwesterly gradient flow. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Combs/Schroeter SHORT TERM...Combs LONG TERM...Cannon