Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

Home |  Current Version |  Previous Version |  Text Only |  Print | Product List |  Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43
778
FXUS61 KGYX 031540
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1040 AM EST Sun Nov 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler and dry conditions will prevail today as high pressure
moves over the region. High pressure moves offshore Monday with
a warm front lifting through New England Monday night or
Tuesday. Very warm conditions return Tuesday into Wednesday
before a cold front brings a cooling trend the second half of
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1040 AM Update...Minor update to reflect observational trends.

625AM Update...The forecast remains on track at this hour on this
chilly morning. Most locations are currently sitting in the 20s as
of 6AM, but Sanford and Fryeburg (a couple of the normally cooler
spots) are reporting temps of 18 degrees.

Previous...

Stubborn cloud cover in the mountains continues to outperform
model guidance thanks to sufficient moisture in the 3000-4000 ft
AGL layer and low-level upslope flow. The same is true east of
Augusta in an area of low-level convergence. This has kept
temperatures "warmer" over these areas while areas to the south
cooled off efficiently with the clear skies and light winds.
Latest satellite imagery shows evidence that these clouds may be
starting to erode with the expectation of largely clearing out
by mid morning but could be a little later if the NAM is to be
believed. The clouds east of Augusta are expected to dissipate
within a couple of hours.

Otherwise, a sunny day is ahead with height rises and plenty of
dry air aloft as high pressure continues to build in from the
west. Similar temperatures are expected to those of yesterday
with highs ranging from the mid 40s to lower 50s but with
lighter winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
High pressure settles more or less directly overhead tonight
offering excellent conditions for radiational cooling. With how
dry the air is expect temperatures to drop very quickly once the
sun goes down. The one caveat is that cirrus will increase
overnight but don`t think it will be enough to level off
temperatures until late (if at all). Regardless, it looks to be
a chilly night with lows in the 20s and mid-upper teens in some
of valleys and normally cooler locations.

On Monday, a low pressure system heading toward the Great Lakes
will shift the surface high pressure offshore into the Gulf of
Maine by the afternoon. Ahead of this low pressure, clouds will
lower and thicken during the day with mostly cloudy conditions
for much of the area from late morning onward. Could see a bit
of light rain or light snow across the far north and mountains
as we get toward late afternoon or early evening as a warm front
approaches, but the low levels might still be too dry for this
to occur. The clouds are expected to keep highs in the mid to
upper 40s for most except southern NH could still see lower 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Clouds will continue across the region on Monday night into
Tuesday morning as warm air advection continue across a broad
warm front. By late in the day, the mild southwesterly flow will
have an impact on the region as H8 temperatures soar to near
+13C. Widespread 60s with well above normal temperatures can be
expected and a few readings near 70 degrees will reach southwest
interior Maine and southern New Hampshire. This forecast is
slightly above most available guidance solutions and with any
scattered showers once again confined to the north.

12Z operational models and ensemble solutions suggest a cold
front will begin to cross the region on Wednesday. Similar to
last week, cold air will hang back to our northwest allowing for
very warm temperatures for this time of the hear once again.
Widespread 70s can be expected, even along much of the
shoreline. The record high for November 6th is 71 degrees set
back in 2020.

Cooler and relatively dry air will spread across the Northeast
due to high pressure through the end of the week and start of
the weekend. A strong cold front may allow for a stray rain
shower across the south on Thursday, with perhaps a few snow
showers in the mountains.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term...Low-end VFR cigs expected to remain at HIE early
this morning, but these should become more FEW-SCT by 12-14Z.
Sunny/VFR elsewhere today. VFR prevails all sites tonight and
Monday with increasing clouds, but these will be the middle and
high variety.

Long Term...Mainly VFR conditions for much of the period. The
greatest chance for MVFR conditions will be across the north
where scattered but brief showers can be expected most days.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Conditions remain below SCA thresholds today
through Monday. Winds will steadily decrease as high pressure
builds in from the west today and then settles overhead tonight.
The high shifts east Monday bringing a return to southerly
flow, which will start to increase late in the day.

Long Term...An increasing southwesterly gradient will develop
ahead of an approaching cold front Tuesday into Wednesday
allowing for SCA conditions. A gusty cold front may cross the
region late in the week allowing for increasing west to west
northwesterly gradient flow.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...Combs/Schroeter
SHORT TERM...Combs
LONG TERM...Cannon