671
FXUS61 KGYX 151916
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
316 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak transitions from high to low pressure will provide several
rounds of showers into the weekend, but will start to lose some
steam by Friday, with limited chances for showers over the week,
and temperatures fair close to normal. Stronger high pressure
and warmer temperatures move in for early next week, with
temperatures remaining seasonable for mid May.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Showers and isolated thunderstorms continue across northern
areas through the evening, with a general trend for these to
slowly drift northward through the evening. They have been slow
moving, with heavy rainfall rates embedded within these storms,
but not lasting long enough to cause any flooding concerns so
far. Some isolated localized flooding can`t be ruled out over
the next few hours, as some cells are starting to run over the
same areas. Localized higher terrain also raises the threat a
bit, but any issues would be expected to be highly localized.

Through the overnight, these showers and storms dissipate, with
mostly cloudy conditions expected elsewhere. A low pressure
center continues to slowly move off the Mid Atlantic coast south
of New England tonight. Scattered showers likely reach into
southern New Hampshire late tonight, but the bulk of the precip
stays south of the NH/Mass border tonight.

Marine fog is expected to bank up along the coastline tonight,
and likely in from coastline through the MidCoast. This result
in areas of fog after midnight, with reduced visibilities at
times. The fog quickly begins to burn off after sunrise tomorrow
morning, and will be last to leave the immediate coastline
around mid-morning tomorrow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Tomorrow looks like a similar day to today overall, but with
todays features in different locations. Showers look more
frequent across southern NH tomorrow, but there is still some
question as to how much moisture reaches this far north from the
low pressure center. There is likely to be a sharp northern
edge with this rain shield, so it`s not out of the question
that southern NH could spend most of the day raining, while
central NH remains mostly dry. A wobble of about 20 miles or so
will play a big role in determining whether Manchester and
Nashua are mostly wet or dry tomorrow, but at this point it
looks reasonable to expect at least some rain. Afternoon showers
and a few thunderstorms are likely again across northern areas
tomorrow, with some brief heavy downpours likely again.

Between the two areas of rain, mostly dry conditions and some
sunshine yield a relatively dry and mild day. Central Maine
looks most likely to see the most breaks of sun, allowing temps
to warm to near 70 again. Mid to upper 60s are expected
elsewhere, with lower 60s through the rainier locations.

Areas of fog are possible again tomorrow night, especially
along the coastline and MidCoast. Clouds linger most of the
night, with showers dissipating after the evening hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The 500 MB pattern across the N Hemisphere trends toward more
amplified over Eurasia, and flatter over NOAM...with N jet
retreating poleward toward the arctic circle over time. This
leads to generally warmer 850 temps, and to weaker less dynamic
system S of the jet into the CONUS. More specifically for the
NE CONUS, it leads to very weak wave sliding just S of the areas
under weak 500 MB ridge to our N. Ultimate this leads to
several of weak and pulsating Rex blocks, which will generally
help expand the ridging to our N southward into New England, and
keep things mainly dry. Flow will remain light, so the coast
will mostly be be at the mercy of the sea breeze through the
period, with temperatures pretty close to or above normal inland
most days, and close to normal or a little lower on the coast.

Friday, should be seasonable as we get ridging to move overhead
with highs inland 70-75 but in the low to mid 60s on the coast,
with mins Fri night in the the mid to upper 40s. If theres a
best chance for showers in the forecast, it looks like Sat
afternoon, but better in the mtns, as a fast moving 500 MB wave
moves through. SE flow freshens on Sat ahead of a front, and
marine air should work further inland, with highs mostly in the
60s to around 70 in the CT valley. The sfc front wants to stall
over the Gulf of ME on Sunday and keep us on the cool side of
the sfc air, and ENE flow, so current forecast is for temps
similar similar to Sat, but it should be mainly dry with more
sun in the afternoon.

Early next week, we actually see some stronger ridging sandwich
between closed low near the Carolinas, and another one in the
Newfoundland/Labrador area. So, it looks dry and partly to
mostly sunny with temps warming up on Monday, and the again on
Tuesday, when temps near 80 will be possible in the S half of NH
and interior SW NH.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term...Mainly VFR conditions continue into the evening,
outside of brief showers at HIE and possibly AUG through the
evening. Marine fog moves onshore tonight, with IFR conditions
likely at times at RKD and AUG. Some IFR restrictions are also
possible at PWM, but confidence is lower for this than terminals
farther east. Valley fog is also likely at HIE and LEB
tomorrow. Conditions gradually improve at all terminals
tomorrow, with some showers and brief restrictions possible at
southern terminals tomorrow afternoon. Marine fog is possible
again tomorrow night along the coast.

Long Term...VFR will be most common Friday through Monday, but could
see some periods of IFR Fri night into Sat morning on the
coast, and then maybe temp MVFR conds in showers on Sat
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Low pressure tracks south of the waters over the
next couple of days. Marine fog develops tonight, and likely
lingers near the shoreline through tomorrow night. Seas
gradually build to near 5ft by late tomorrow night, but looks to
remain below SCA levels for now.

Long Term...Winds/seas will stay below SCA levels Friday through
Monday, as flow remains light.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...Clair
SHORT TERM...Clair
LONG TERM...Cempa