Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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FXUS61 KGYX 161346
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
946 AM EDT Wed Jun 16 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds into the region for the middle of the week
with seasonable temperatures and a dry westerly flow.
Temperatures start to increase by the end of the week. A cold
front crosses Saturday with a chance for showers and
thunderstorms.Sunday and Monday look dry and warm as high
pressure builds in again. Another cold front could bring a
chance of showers and storms on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1045 AM Update...
Have increased pops for later this afternoon across the northern
higher terrain. HRRR brings precipitation into this region as
moisture wraps back into the forecast areas around the periphery
of the upper level closed low. Minor adjustments also made to
the near term forecast of temperatures, dew points and winds.

7am update... minor adjustments to clouds
which have now cleared from most of the area, along with current
temps.

Prev... The cold front has now cleared all of the land, with
satellite imagery showing the fog bank over the eastern portion
of the waters indicating the remaining boundary. Northwesterly
flow has started to increase somewhat and thus have dropped fog
for the inland areas as the combination of dry advection and
well mixed atmosphere should keep all but the most isolated
valleys clear. Dewpoints have dropped into the 40s on the
western edge of the CWA and will continue to drop through the
day.

For today, the wind will pick up slightly as the low pressure
continues to move off to the east. A few gusts to 20mph are expected
through afternoon. Aloft the upper level low and cold airmass shifts
eastwards, with most of the instability showers centered over
northern Maine and into New Brunswick, with only a few sprinkles
possible along the canadian border in our area. For today remained
slightly bullish for temperatures keeping the mid 70s in place all
the way to the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Overnight clear skies with lows dropping to the mid 40s. With the
drying trend have not added any fog for the river valleys but will
need to watch the midday dewpoints today to ensure everything is
able to dry out.

For Thursday high pressure begins to build in and a warming trend
starts. Paradoxically this drops the temps slightly for the
midcoast where southerly flow will develop resulting in on shore
flow in addition to the seabreeze. Elsewhere highs in the upper
70s south to low 70s north under clear skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The nrn hemisphere continues its long term stretch of no stable
pattern, especially across NOAM region. This will bring waves
through the region every 2-3 days with a threat for showers and
storms, but no significant widespread rainfall. Temps will vary
as well, but for the most part they look to stay mainly normal
to above through the long term.

Friday looks dry and generally sunny as sfc high passes to our
S, and SW flow develops. Highs push mostly into the mid 70s to
low 80s, coolest in the mtns, and on the mid-coast. For the
most part Fri night should stay dry, as weak low moves east out
of Ontario and into Quebec. There`s a chance that a few showers
cross the nrn zones as weak WAA ahead of the low grazes that
area. Lows range from the mid 50s in the mtns to the upper 50s
and low 60s in the south.

On Sat, that weak low and associated 500 MB trough approaches,
the region, crossing New england Sat night. This will bring a
threat of showers and thunderstorms, especially Sat afternoon
and evening. Highs Sat range from the mid-upper 70s in the N
and and on the midcoast, to the low-mid 80s elsewhere. Mainly
sunny conds  should persist into the afternoon outside the
mountain, with clouds moving in later in the afternoon with the
SHRA/TSRA. Any convection could will wind down during the
evening, wit clearing overnight, and lows in the low 50s in the
N, to near 60 in the south. The surge of cooler air behind the
front is short lives, although Tds drop off a little bit on
Sunday as sfc high shifts in from the W. It looks mainly sunny
with highs in the mid 70s N to the low 80s in the S.

Another 500 MB trough, larger and broader, moves out of the
plains toward the GReat Lakes Monday, and helps build up ridge
over the NE CONUS, which allow fairly deep SW flow to bring in
warmer air in the mid levels, and push highs on Monday into the
80s everywhere, except along the mid coast beaches. Srn NH spots
could approach 90. The large trough will affect the region Mon
night into to Tue night, and this will bring the threat of more
SHRA/TSRA, and higher RH levels. Cooler air moves in for the
middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term...Rapidly changing conditions along the coast this
morning as the fog bank begins to pull east. It is now well
clear of PWM, however RKD may see a few more hours of IFR fog
possible. By 12Z everywhere will be VFR with skies becoming SKC
as high pressure builds in for the next few days. NWly flow this
afternoon may gust as high as 17kts before calming overnight.

Long Term...Mainly VFR expected Friday into Fri night, although
outside chance for some coastal stratus along the coast Fri
night. A cold front will produce scattered SHRA/TSRA Sat
aft/eve, which could produce flight restrictions at times. VFR
returns late Sat night into Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Cold front in the process of clearing the waters
this morning with dense fog remaining across the eastern portion
of the area. NWly flow will develop today behind the front but
hold short of SCA, although a few isolated gusts to 25kts are
possible. High pressure builds in tomorrow as flow gradually
becomes more southerly.

Long Term...Winds/seas could approach SCA levels fro a short
period late Fri night into Sat.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Cannon/Cempa


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