Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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FXUS61 KGYX 061030
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
630 AM EDT Wed Jul 6 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A front will cross the area today and bring with it drier
conditions tonight and Thursday. Gusty northwest winds will also
help to allow temperatures to climb into the 70s and 80s.
Tonight will be a cool night with typically colder valley
locations falling into the 40s. Thursday will be slightly cooler
and see the sea breeze push well inland in the afternoon.
Another front will cross the area Friday with fair weather
expected over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Update...Cold front is sweeping across the forecast area at this
hour. Scattered showers are popping up along the boundary...and
will more or less slide thru southern NH over the next hour or
two. Otherwise the tendency will be for drier conditions with
more clearing south of the mtns.

Previous discussion...Bulk of the forcing is out of the
forecast area this morning as LLJ lifts north and east. The core
of that LLJ is still producing some deeper convection and
occasional lightning over the coastal waters...though much of
that activity is beyond Platts and Jeffreys Banks at this point.
Onshore flow is continuing some showers and mostly drizzle
across western ME at this hour. I will be keeping relatively
high PoP but low QPF going for the next couple of hours before
transitioning to upslope shower activity.

Post frontal passage will feature deep mixing today. Temps
should be able to climb well into the 70s and low to mid 80s for
most locations...outside of the farthest north valleys.
Additionally breezy winds will gust to 25 or 30 mph at times.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
High pressure in control tonight and Thu. That high will allow
for radiational cooling tonight that sees typical colder valleys
dip into the 40s. The combination of cool temps and recent rain
should result in patchy valley fog.

Thu will be a seasonable day with weak pressure gradient
resulting in afternoon sea breeze working its way inland.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Overview: A cold front will drop through the region on Friday
bringing the chance for rain. On its heels will be a strong area
of high pressure with mostly dry weather through the weekend
and beginning of next week. Temperatures remain seasonal, with a
slight warming trend through the middle of next week.

Details: Two main weather attractions in the extended to focus
on. One being the cold front Friday, the other a large dome of
high pressure set to follow up.

For the cold front, there has been quite a bit of uncertainty
w/ regards to timing and strength of the front here in New
England. With the parent low anchored east of Hudson Bay, there
isn’t much forcing associated along the front, and thus its at
threat of washing out or passing through the region very weak.
This seems to be the recent trend, but will need to follow this
event through. If secondary low along the front develops (as
hinted in previous guidance runs), timing may support a more
widespread precip event with higher thunder chances.

As it stands now, there isn’t a very promising push of cold
air aloft, and thus what daytime instability can build Friday is
limited to the low levels. With this, have a general chance of
showers Friday w/ the frontal passage. Did mention some thunder
chances in the western ME mountains to the ME capitol region in
anticipation for some slightly better thermodynamics here. 0-6km
shear is certainly impressive through the afternoon as the
zonal mid jet moves overhead with SW low level flow, but it
looks like a case of high shear and low CAPE.

High pressure will begin to nose into the region Saturday as
the low begins to shift east. This will usher in plenty of dry
air and light winds through the boundary layer. Through the
weekend and early next week, presence of the high means a
diurnal sea breeze, high temperatures around normal, and
potentially some cooler nights with calm winds and clear skies.

The next chance of more widespread rain wouldn’t be until this
high clears...potentially Tuesday. This would follow a bit of a
warmup in temperatures w/ return flow and SW flow feeding warm
air and moisture back into the region. Regardless, little chance
at improving some moderate drought conditions developing in the
CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term...Areas of IFR conditions will gradually improve this
morning...then rapidly become VFR behind the cold front.
Northwest flow developing behind the front should result in some
lingering MVFR CIGs around HIE before lifting and scattering of
the cloud deck there as well. Surface wind gusts around 20 to 25
kt possible at all terminals this afternoon. VFR conditions and
diminished winds expected tonight at Thu. Patchy valley fog
possible tonight...especially HIE and LEB.

Long Term...Mostly VFR expected through Sunday. There will be a
cold front passing through Friday that could bring -SHRA or the
slight chance of TS to the area in the afternoon. Some BR may
develop along the Maine coast ahead of this front Fri.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Winds will shift to northwesterly this morning and
continue to be gusty thru afternoon. SCA remains in effect for
all waters. Winds will quickly diminish this evening and
overnight with seas gradually following suit. Winds and seas
expected to remain below SCA thresholds tonight thru Thu.

Long Term...Below SCA conditions expected through Sunday. A
cold front will be passing over the waters Friday, but strength
is in question. Regardless, some fog will be possible Friday
ahead of the front, with a NW wind shift behind.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Legro
SHORT TERM...Legro
LONG TERM...Cornwell
AVIATION...Cornwell/Legro
MARINE...Cornwell/Legro


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