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000
FXUS61 KGYX 281122
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
722 AM EDT Sun May 28 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Sunny and warm is more or less the forecast for the next week
save for one minor speed bump on Monday. In an otherwise well
above normal temperature forecast, Monday will feature a cold
front that keeps readings closer to normal and by no means is
that a forecast to complain about for Memorial Day. Temperatures
will begin to rebound quickly on Tuesday, especially for the
areas away from the coast. By midweek most locations will be
pushing 90 degrees. The next attempt to cool down and maybe
bring some rain to the area will be Friday into Saturday as a
cold front drops south out of Canada.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
715am Update...Morning satellite confirms continued hazy skies
due to smoke from distant wildfire activity. This will have
minimal effect at the surface regarding the hot temperatures
expected today, but hazy visibility may be noted out hiking. Not
much change in thinking for the forecast today, with
warm temps aloft around 23C at 950mb ready to mix down per 12z
GYX sonde.

Previous Discussion...
Sunny and hot will be the theme today. Although good mixing
should allow for a breeze through the afternoon.

After a mild night across the region, morning temp rises will
have a good jump under full sun and westerly winds today.
Continued to bring temperatures across the interior into the
upper 80s today, with a few 90 degree readings in southern NH
and far southern ME.

Diurnal mixing with a increasing pres gradient will allow for
winds to gust up to around 20 or 25 mph. Higher gust values are
possible across northern NH and the western ME mountains. The
combination of deep mixing potentially dropping dew point values
into the mid 30s during peak heating will lower some area RH
values into the upper teens this afternoon. Thus, elevated fire
weather conditions will be attainable across northern NH and
western ME. That said, state fire agencies are reporting much of
the region past transition and nearly full green up. Besides
taking care around the campfire, it would be wise to carry extra
water in these dry conditions if out exploring.

A weak cold front will approach from the north later this
afternoon. This will bring the chance of an isolated shower
first across west-central ME, and then parts of southern ME and
northern NH this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
The aforementioned cold front won`t have much moisture with it
as it drops through ME this evening and then NH overnight. It
will bring a rapid cooling to many interior locations into the
evening hours, as well as a northerly wind shift. Can`t rule out
a isolated shower or sprinkle as it cross the mountains and
Midcoast, but much of the extra instability from daytime will
have dissipated much south of those locations.

While this will help cool temperatures overnight, it could also
provide a bit of late evening mixing that dilutes any surface
inversions setting up. This could actually keep some locations
in southern or central NH warmer later into the evening or early
overnight. Eventually, the northernly winds will bring temps
down to similar overnight lows as Sat night.

Cooler Monday, although in this case it just means highs around
normal; low to mid 70s. NE flow behind the cold front will
encourage more inland propagation of a sea breeze during the
day, allowing cooler marine air to infiltrate inland during the
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Overview: Rex block with ridging surface and aloft locally will
hold until the end of the week. Temps well above normal along
with precip below normal is expected.

Impacts: A lack of widespread wetting rain may lead to expanding
areas of areas of abnormally dry conditions.

Forecast Details: Really not much to add detail-wise to the
extended forecast as it remains warm and dry.

Warmest air will be carried north around the periphery of the
high and then recycled. So each day should gradually get warmer
than the last as those mid level temps tick upward. The lack of
rainfall and abundant sunshine should allow for deep
mixing...despite the greening up of vegetation. So by midweek
max temps will be pushing 90 for most locations. The warmest day
looks to be Thu currently...as compressional warming ahead of
a cold front helps increase temps by an additional couple of
degrees.

I did include some isolated thunder late in the period...as the
front crosses the region. Convective guidance is starting to
flag that Fri/Sat time window for possible storms. The set up is
a little out of the ordinary...with lapse rates originating from
northern Canada vs. the High Plains...but are forecast to be
enough to support convection. Limiting factor will be whether we
have enough low level moisture to support any appreciable
updraft strength.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term...VFR with afternoon west wind gusts around 15 to 20
kt. A northerly wind shift is expected this evening as a cold
front drives south. This will have some VFR cigs with it and
perhaps a VCSH. Conditions continue VFR Monday, with breezy east
to northeast winds.


Long Term...Widespread VFR conditions expected under high
pressure. Winds will generally be light...but weak gradient will
lead to afternoon sea breezes and potentially shifting wind
direction at coastal terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Below SCA expected over the coastal waters. Bays
and harbors may see some gusts to 25 kt this afternoon as land
locations warm and become breezy, for this reason have placed
Penobscot Bay in a SCA in anticipation for a busy boating day
and these gusts. A cold front will pass over the waters this
evening and overnight with a northerly wind shift. Winds
continue to turn NE into Monday, with gusts remaining below SCA.


Long Term...With high pressure firmly in control of the
region...winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA
thresholds. The weaker pressure gradient will mean that sea
breezes should prevail in the afternoons.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MEZ023>028.
NH...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NHZ014.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 2 AM EDT
     Monday for ANZ151.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Cornwell
SHORT TERM...Cornwell
LONG TERM...Legro
AVIATION...Cornwell/Legro
MARINE...Cornwell/Legro