610
FXUS61 KGYX 120623
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
123 AM EST Thu Feb 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes for this forecast package other than to tweak
precipitation chances through the rest of tonight/early today
based on the latest radar observations and high resolution
guidance trends.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Some light snow remains possible over the Midcoast and across the
mountains through this morning, then mainly dry conditions
prevail until at least Saturday.

2. Seasonable temperatures are likely through the end of the week
and into the weekend, with above average temperatures possible next
week.

3. A potential system late this weekend and early next week continues
to waffle back and forth on recent model runs, but remains an
item of focus. Currently limited threat for an impactful system.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...

An upper low and associated surface low move up into the Canadian
Maritimes this morning as an inverted trough extends to the west of
the surface low and rotates down into the Midcoast. Thus, we can
expect some more light snow here through around 12z or so, but only
a light coating of additional accumulation is expected. The
mountains and vicinity will also see some lingering snow showers
through the morning given upslope flow, but this activity should
diminish by later this morning as upper ridging starts to nudge in.
Mainly dry conditions are then expected until at least Saturday when
another quick moving upper low may lead to some more light snow
depending on the eventual track.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...

Temperatures will mainly be seasonal through the rest of the week
and into the weekend. Highs through Saturday will generally range
from the upper teens to mid 20s north, to the low to mid 30s south.
It then appears that a more substantial warmup will commence Sunday
into next week with readings possibly back into the 40s by Monday.
Widespread values in the 40s are then looking more possible by
midweek. Lows will generally remain slightly below normal through at
least the weekend with a decent snowpack in place.

KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...

Attention remains on a potential system for Sunday and Monday.
Models and ensemble members have continued to show a widespread
array of solutions for storm track.  The general consensus appears
to be a more out to sea track, but confidence remains very low.

The main source of uncertainty pertains to how quickly a shortwave
in the northern jet stream branch merges with a moisture-rich wave
in the southern branch. Models will likely continue to wobble back
and forth with the timing of this convergence, with a clearer
picture unlikely to emerge until at least late Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Periods of MVFR ceilings will remain possible this morning at
HIE, LEB, RKD, and AUG. A brief dip into MVFR to IFR visibilities
will also be possible at these terminals if a heavier snow
shower moves over ahead this morning. Ceilings will lift into
VFR categories through the afternoon, except MVFR lingers at HIE.
Elsewhere, expect VFR conditions through Thursday night.

Outlook:

Friday - Sunday AM: VFR prevails.

Sunday - Monday: Restrictions with snow are possible. Should the
storm miss to the south, VFR would prevail.

Tuesday: VFR most likely.

&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure deepens across Atlantic Canada through the day as
high pressure builds in from the west. SCA conditions continue
through the day in northwesterly flow and will likely linger
into early Friday. High pressure then builds across the waters
into the weekend, with conditions mostly below SCA levels late
Friday and into the weekend. Low pressure likely then tracks
south of the Gulf of Maine on Sunday and Monday.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for ANZ150-152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for ANZ151.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hargrove/Palmer/Clair