Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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FXUS61 KGYX 231949

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
349 PM EDT Sat Mar 23 2019

Gusty northwest flow continues in the wake of departing low
pressure. These winds will usher in colder air over the next
couple of days. But first mild weather is in store for Sunday as
sunshine and west winds help push readings into the 50s. The
stronger cold front approaches Sunday night. Some very light
snow is possible along the front but most noticeable will be
temperatures falling into the 30s for places Monday and Tuesday.
However, late it the week it looks like we may swing back in the
other direction towards warmer than normal.


Main story this evening is the wind. Upslope snow showers are
gradually coming to an end in the North Country...and little to
no additional accumulation is expected as drier air works its
way in from the W. But CAA continues...and winds are
occasionally gusting to 30-35kt. Decrease will be gradual
tonight as pressure gradient remains fairly strong across the
region. Eventually gusts will abate but breeze stays up
overnight and keeps temps from bottoming out. Blended in raw 2 m
temp guidance to reduce the radiational cooling effect. That
should keep readings in the 20s...except for the Nrn valleys
that may slip into the upper teens.


Sun looks like a pretty nice day overall. Deeper mixing and
warmer temps aloft will help propel afternoon highs into the 50s
for many areas...perhaps near 60 for Srn NH. Winds will remain
breezy...with an occasional gust around 20 mph. One to get out
and enjoy.

Sun night the real push of colder air comes in the form of a
cold front out of Canada. As it drops Swd some of the WAA from
central CONUS storm system will increase the lift along the
boundary and allow for some light precip. But with forcing
mostly parallel to the front and moisture limited...I am not
expecting much more than some very light snow or even rain. In
areas of the best lift a light dusting is possible.


A cold front passing through the forecast area Sunday night will
usher in colder air for Monday and Tuesday. Expect Tuesday high
temperatures to run 5 to 10 degrees below normal.

The remainder of the week will feature increasing warmth and dry
conditions as ridge sets up over the southeast US and brings the
warmth north. This will also slow the progression of fronts
across the eastern third of the country keeping us dry through
at least the first half of the weekend. The GFS wants to bring a
cold front through Saturday afternoon while the ECMWF holds this
feature off until Sunday. Temperatures will climb into the 50s
Thursday with the 60 degree mark possible by Friday and Saturday
in souther portions of the forecast area.


Short Term...Lingering MVFR CIGs at HIE will continue for
another few hours before drier air helps scatter out the statocu
deck. NW winds with gusts to 30kt will continue into the evening
as well before diminishing after sunset. Otherwise VFR
conditions will prevail thru Sun. A cold front will approach
from the N Sun night and areas of MVFR CIGs may develop. There
may also be some -SN along the front which could produce local
IFR conditions...but confidence is low in the coverage of

Long Term...VFR conditions expected.


Short Term...Still getting some gale force gusts S of Port
Clyde. Will continue the gale warning into this evening for
those areas outside the bays...but drop N of Port Clyde and
Casco and Penobscot Bays to SCAs. The bays will see SCA
conditions diminish late tonight...with SCA conditions
continuing on the outer waters into Sun. Winds and seas will
diminish below SCA thresholds during the day but the approach
of a cold front from the N may allow winds to increase back to
near 25kt Sun night.

Long Term...Winds and seas will increase later in the week as
winds turn to the southwest.


MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ151-153.
     Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ150.



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