Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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FXUS61 KGYX 211303
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
903 AM EDT Fri Sep 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over New Brunswick will retreat well offshore
today. A cold front will cross the region tonight followed by
high pressure on Saturday. A secondary cold front will push
south through the region Sunday. High pressure will build over
the region Sunday night and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

900 AM...At 12z a 991 millibar low vicinity Lake Superior with
a warm front extending through the lower Great Lakes and upstate
New York. NWS Doppler Radar mosaic showed a broken area of
convection along and to the north of this boundary. The front
and associated convection will gradually lift north today with
highest pops reserved for northern and mountains sections. A
gusty southerly flow will develop behind the warm front late
this morning then continue into tonight. I reviewed BUFKIT
forecast soundings and raised wind gusts to near 40 mph tonight
along the mid coast immediately ahead of the cold front.
Otherwise...I made adjustments to near term grids to reflect the
current mesonet and radar trends.


Prev disc... 725 am Update:
Warm front aloft continues to push into region. A band of
showers across upstate NY along the leading edge of the mid
level surge of waa will be moving thru the mtns mid to late
morning as POPs reflect in forecast. No changes needed at this
time since timing and location of showers appears good. Input
latest mesonet data with only minor tweaks needed to near term
temps forecast.

Previous Discussion:
A warm frontal boundary currently moving north across the area.
Plenty of clouds across the region associated with the warm
front. Scattered showers over the mountain areas may be possible
today as the boundary shifts north. Further south across
central and southern areas the clouds will continue to spill
across the region during the day, although by afternoon some
breaks expected over southern areas where they will become well
into the warm sector. A southerly wind flow will increase during
the day across the area and become gusty especially over the
higher terrain. Temps will be milder with the waa pattern with
highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
All models agree on timing of cold front moving through the
region later tonight with the loss of diurnal heating.
Scattered showers and maybe a few tstorms are possible along and
ahead of the rather strong cold front. A strong southwest wind
field will be in place aloft so the showers and isolated tstorms
will be fast moving and may create some brief strong gusty
winds. Temps will remain mild over most areas due to the mixing
and clouds with the CAA holding of until Sat morning.

During Saturday skies become sunny with near seasonal temps in
the range of the 60s to near 70. Breezy conditions in the
morning will gradually diminish in the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Models are in generally good agreement during the long-term period.
A ridge of high pressure over the area Saturday night will slip
southward overnight as a weak cold front approaches from the north.
The front will cross the region Sunday but with little available
moisture, the weather should remain dry.  High pressure will build
southward from Canada Sunday night and Monday.

As the area of high pressure moves offshore Tuesday, a
southwest flow will bring warmer temperatures and increasing
moisture into the region. This flow will also bring a threat of
showers into the region for Tuesday through Wednesday. A cold
front will cross the region late Wednesday or Wednesday night,
bringing an end to any showers. Cool dry weather is expected
Thursday with a possible return to showery weather for Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term...VFR to MVFR conditions in ceilings this morning.
Conditions improve by afternoon following a warm frontal
passage. Areas of MVFR and lcl IFR conditions tonight with
shra/tsra with sfc winds gusting to 30 kt as a cold front
crosses the area. VFR condition`s return Sat through Sat night.

Long Term...Mainly VFR conditions expected Saturday night through
Monday night with MVFR conditions possible Tuesday in showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...South to southwest winds increase ahead of an
approaching strong cold front today and tonight with Gale force
winds expected to develop for all waters except Casco Bay. Winds
shift to northwest behind the front late tonight with gusty
winds.  Winds and seas will gradually subside behind the front
Saturday as high pres builds across the waters.

Long Term...SCAs possible late Tuesday through Wednesday as an
increasing southwest flow develops across the waters.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 8 AM EDT Saturday for
     ANZ153.
     Gale Warning from noon today to 8 AM EDT Saturday for
     ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$

ES



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