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000
FXUS61 KBGM 281035
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
635 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front moves through the region today with a few showers and
thunderstorms. A stronger cold front an area of low pressure
brings another round of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday. High
pressure attempts to build into the region for the middle of
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

Only minor changes with the sunrise update, previous discussion
on track.

A warm front will slowly move east of the region this morning. This
allows most of the region to enter a warm sector ahead of a cold
front across the Great Lakes. As a result, shower and spotty
thunderstorm chances shift north and east this morning to the NY
Thruway area southeast toward Sullivan County NY. Some clearing is
anticipated later this morning and afternoon across most of CNY
into NE PA with these areas a bit more firmly in the warm
sector. With most of us in the warm sector 70`s should be
realized for this afternoon.

Enough lift and moisture looks present for some showers to develop
this afternoon with the afternoon heating. It does not look really
unstable but enough to promote a few thunderstorms as well. CAPE
values are modeled to reach around 500 J/KG today coupled with 20-30
knots of 0-6KM bulk shear. As a result, a few thunderstorms may
organize into a couple of clusters with some gusty winds from
the Finger Lakes this afternoon into NE PA by early evening.

The frontal boundary remains over the region through Monday.
However, lift needed for more than a spotty shower or thunderstorm
shifts to our northwest with an area of low pressure across the
Great Lakes. Given the continued warm and moist advection with
westerly/southwesterly air, low temperatures will continue to trend
warmer only falling into the 50`s tonight.  With the front over our
region Monday a fairly noticeable temperature gradient looks to
set up from south to north from the 80`s to even a few 60`s for
highs north of NY Thruway.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
340 AM Update...
Upper level ridge axis remains over the region Monday night with a
trough beginning to push into the Great Lakes. Moisture, lift, and
modest instability moves ahead of the trough and along the ridge
setting off some rain showers and isolated thunderstorms across the
region. Warm air advection continues with mild temperatures settling
in overnight. Lows are expected to range in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Similar pattern continues on Tuesday as the upper level low slowly
moves into the region dragging a cold front along with it. Both of
these features provide enhanced lift over our region increasing the
chance of thunderstorms with the possibility of some being severe in
nature. In terms of instability CAPE values are ranging from 500-800
J/Kg with 0-6 km bulk shear values up to 35 knots. Severe chances
will depend on timing of the front and how quickly the ridge breaks
down Tuesday morning. Current model runs show the trough arriving
late afternoon and early evening. A warm front may also move ahead
of the cold front with some pop up showers possible. This may also
limit instability for the afternoon as well. Highs are expected to
range in the upper 70s to low 80s with lows in the 50s overnight.

In terms of flash flooding, corfidi vectors remain favorable for a
short time frame in the afternoon. This supports potential training
to occur in developing storms. Although the warm cloud depth layer
remains unfavorable at this time which could also hinder these
chances. Otherwise PWAT values are about 2-3 standard deviations
above normal suggesting sufficient moisture will be available to
replenish storms.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
340 AM Update...
Temperatures behind the front wont cool significantly as warm
air quickly returns to the region with a ridge sliding into the
Eastern US on Wednesday. A slight chance of showers are
possible, depending how fast the upper trough exits. There are
some timing differences in model guidance. Otherwise a brief dry
period works its way into the region Thursday as the ridge
strengthens. Rain showers and thunderstorm chances return on
Friday and Saturday as an upper trough over the central US
begins to advance eastwards. With the ridge in place during this
period temperatures will range in the upper 60s to mid 70s
during the day. Overnight lows will remain relatively mild
falling into the low to mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

IFR ceilings at KBGM and KAVP should slowly lift to VFR between
14-17Z. Restrictions become increasing likely after 16Z as
showers and a few thunderstorms develop across central New York
that shift southeast to around KAVP by 00Z Monday. Included some
TEMPO groups this afternoon to best pinpoint the timing of any
scattered thunderstorms with restrictions.

Widespread IFR or even lower ceilings along with some
visibility restrictions are expected to form during the
evening. It is still somewhat uncertain to if fog or low stratus
will be the culprit.

Outlook...

Monday... Ceilings lift throughout the morning then VFR.

Tuesday...Restrictions likely in rain showers and
thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon and evening.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR; slight chance for a shower.

Thursday...VFR Likely.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWG
NEAR TERM...MWG
SHORT TERM...ES
LONG TERM...ES
AVIATION...MWG