655
FXUS61 KBGM 120758
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
358 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Frontal system pushes into the region overnight with more rain
showers. Isolated to scattered showers are expected to continue
on Sunday with a brief break Sunday night, before the next
frontal system approaches Monday morning. An active pattern will
continue this week with unsettled weather through at least mid
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
100 AM Update:

Only minor adjustments to PoPs and QPF based on the latest radar
trends, HRRR and 3km NAM. Overall, forecast remains on track,
with no significant changes.

Previous Discussion Below

Continued minor adjustments with the shower coverage through the
overnight based on latest radar trends. Increased QPF slightly
in the Southern Tier of NY into the Finger Lakes as well with
the late evening update.

Sped up the timing heading into the evening hours with the
arrival of the next round of more widespread showers. Previous
discussion below.

220 PM Update:

Unsettled weather will continue through most of the period with
just brief high pressure Sunday night into Monday morning.

Weak surface low pressure and upper level shortwave trough will
push across the Great Lakes this afternoon and evening, kicking
off more widespread showers tonight. Out ahead of this system,
we are seeing a few diurnal rain showers popping up across
central NY. The diurnal heating, aided with the cool air aloft,
could produce an isolated rumble of thunder.

The low will fill and become vertically stacked overnight into
Sunday as it moves over Central NY. This will keep shower chance
up through the day tomorrow, especially with diurnal heating
during the afternoon hours. This low moves east of the area by
Sunday evening which will allow for showers to gradually taper
off and should see some clearing in the clouds overnight into
early Monday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
355 AM Update:

Weak ridging will be sliding east of the area Monday night with
a warm front north of our region. Latest model guidance has
trended a bit drier Monday night with most of the rain shower
activity located to our north and west/closer to the warm front.
Currently maintaining slight chance to low-end chance PoPs for
areas west of I-81 Monday night, but if this drier trend
continues, it is possible the entire area remains dry Monday
night. Lows are expected to be in the upper 40s to upper 50s.

A slow-moving frontal boundary will be moving eastward on
Tuesday, which will re-introduce showers to the forecast.
Depending on the progression of this front, it is possible that
much of Tuesday morning may remain mainly dry, especially east
of I-81, before coverage of showers and perhaps a few
thunderstorms increases during the afternoon. Otherwise it will
be mainly cloudy with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

The upper level low will slowly drift eastward and the
associated frontal boundary will stall over/around our area
Tuesday night through Wednesday, which will keep showers and
some thunderstorms around. Right now, it appears the best chance
for more widespread coverage of showers on Wednesday will be
across areas east of I-81/south of I-88, but this is subject to
change depending on the progression of the frontal boundary.
Otherwise, mainly cloudy skies are again expected, with perhaps
some partial clearing late in the day Wednesday for areas west
of I-81. Highs are expected to be mainly in the 60s.

The upper level low drifts eastward/away from the area Wednesday
night, which will allow for the coverage of showers to diminish.
However, some model guidance keeps this upper low close enough
to have showers linger around a bit longer.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
355 AM Update:

Weak ridging builds in Thursday into Friday, which will allow
for a brief drier period of weather. The one caveat is that the
upper low may remain close enough to the region Thursday for a
few isolated showers. That being said, chances are that Thursday
will be dry with partly to mostly sunny skies and highs in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.

Unfortunately, this dry period of weather looks to be rather
short-lived as yet another frontal system looks to move through
the region late in the period. However, as is typical this far
out, significant timing differences are present, which creates
uncertainty for Friday`s forecast. Should this next system
approach the area a bit slower, Friday may remain dry, but a
quicker approach would re-introduce a chance for showers.
Confidence in seeing rain showers is higher for Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
130 AM Update

Conditions will transition to MVFR after 06-08z as a frontal
system moves in overnight from the west with light rain.

Restrictions will generally hold steady around MVFR/Fuel Alt
through the rest of the overnight and Sunday morning hours but
could touch IFR at ITH and BGM at times with some low clouds
and patchy fog around.

There will be improvement tomorrow afternoon after 16-19Z, with
MVFR ceilings going to VFR at ITH, SYR, ELM and RME by 18-20z.
BGM and AVP are expected to remain MVFR through about 13/00z,
but confidence is rather low. There could be enough afternoon
mixing to scatter out the conditions to VFR at times late in the
day. Patchy low clouds and perhaps some fog returns by late
Sunday evening, but the clouds certainly look more scattered.

Outlook...

Sunday night through Wednesday...Occasional rain showers may
bring intermittent restrictions as multiple disturbances pass
through the region. Some periods of mainly VFR conditions
possible in between disturbances, but timing of this is uncertain.

Thursday...Becoming VFR as a ridge of high pressure moves
overhead.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJG/MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK/MJM/MWG
SHORT TERM...BJG
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...BJT