592
FXUS61 KBGM 122348
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
748 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Clouds will decrease tonight with cool conditions and patchy
fog developing. Warmer temperatures are expected Monday, however
a warm front will push through the area and kick off afternoon
scattered showers and thunderstorms. An upper level low moves
over the region on Tuesday and Wednesday with more periods of
rain possible.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Slow clearing will continue throughout the evening with the loss
of daytime heating. However, kept shower chances around in the
Finger Lakes and Southern Tier of NY later into the evening
with the latest update.


320 PM Update

Upper level low pressure continues pushing eastward this
afternoon and this evening, allowing for drier condition to
prevail. Partly cloudy skies are expected for much of tonight
as weak high pressure briefly pushes in. The clearing skies and
light winds should allow for some patchy fog to form, however
clouds will start to increase again by early Monday morning,
which could dissipate fog before sunrise.

A slow moving warm front will push east over the region on
tomorrow. Along this front there will be a period of rain
showers in the morning to early afternoon hours; with more
coverage of showers the further north in Central NY and in the
Finger Lakes Region. NE PA and into the Catskills should stay
mostly dry with perhaps an isolated shower. By tomorrow afternoon,
the warm front should push north of the region. Temperatures
will be much warmer tomorrow with clearing behind the front.
However, some weak instability will develop with some sunshine
peaking through during the after early evening hours. This
will could be enough for a few thunderstorms to develop late in
the day generally from the Southern Tier on northward. Outside
of any showers and thunderstorms, it will be partly sunny with
highs ranging from the low to mid-70s west of I-81, with
mid-60s to around 70 east. After sunset, shower and
thunderstorms will start to decrease in coverage with chances
only possible across the far north in the vicinity of the warm
front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
330 PM Update:

With upper level ridging to our east and a warm front to the
north, our region gets placed in a warm sector keeping
conditions dry early Tuesday morning. A slow-moving frontal
boundary will shift eastwards Tuesday afternoon kicking off rain
showers and isolated thunderstorms. Instability parameters are
weak so not expecting any significant impacts with storms that
form. Otherwise it will be mainly cloudy with highs in the mid
60s to lower 70 and lows in the mid 50s to low 60s. An upper
level low over the midwest approaches the east coast Tuesday
night into Wednesday. As a result the frontal boundary is
expected to stall over our area allowing showers to continue
through Wednesday evening. The upper level low drifts
eastward/away from the area Wednesday night, which will allow
for the coverage of showers to diminish. However, some model
guidance keeps this upper low close enough to have showers
linger around a bit longer. Highs on Wednesday will range in the
mid to upper 60s with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
330 PM Update:

Upper level ridge begins to builds in Thursday through Friday,
allowing a brief period of dry weather. Although some model guidance
delays the upper low departing ahead of the building ridge. This
could keep showers lingering well into Thursday morning. Dry period
looks to be rather short-lived as another disturbance approaches the
region just in time for the weekend. Timing differences are present
with this next system, which creates uncertainty for Friday`s
forecast. At this moment the first part of Friday appears dry with
precipitation moving sometime overnight through Saturday. Model
guidance begins to diverge for the remaining period. Otherwise
temperatures in the long term will range in the upper 60s to mid 70s
during the day with lows falling in the 50s overnight.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
735 pm update...

VFR expected for most sites the next 24 hours.

A front is stalling across the area this evening. Showers that
were with the front are drying up. Lingering MVFR should return
to AVP from 05z to 13z. In CNY low clouds are lifting as drier
air moves in. The big question is whether valley fog will form
with partial clearing and calm winds. Included a tempo for MVFR
vsby fog at ELM from 8 to 12z.

Warm frontal rain moves in Monday afternoon to RME/SYR. RME
should fall to MVFR cigs starting at 18z.

Winds light to calm tonight. Monday winds south to southwest at
8 kts.

Outlook...

Monday night through Wednesday...Occasional rain showers may
bring intermittent restrictions as multiple disturbances pass
through the region. Some periods of mainly VFR conditions
possible in between disturbances, but timing of this is
uncertain.

Thursday through Friday...Becoming VFR as a ridge of high
pressure moves overhead.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK/MWG
SHORT TERM...ES
LONG TERM...ES
AVIATION...TAC