000
FXUS63 KICT 241753
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1253 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Two rounds of severe weather possible Thursday: Thursday
  morning, and again Thursday night.

- Conditional severe chances east of the Flint Hills Friday
  afternoon/evening.

- Another round of severe weather anticipated on Saturday;
  likely to impact most of the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

     Today...
A few showers are developing off of a mid-level
baroclinic zone this morning, but rain is struggling to make it to
the ground given stout low-level dry air. Still, sprinkles to light
rain may affect some locations through the morning hours. Later
today, showers and storms are likely to develop across Oklahoma, and
this activity may sneak northward into southern Kansas this
afternoon/evening; however, rain chances will be low (at or below
30%). As moisture surges northward tonight, more widespread shower
and storm coverage is expected, although more robust activity will
likely wait until Thursday morning to impact the area.

     Thursday...
There are numerous scenarios that could play out on
Thursday, but a couple of them stand out with some of the short term
modeling. Most of the 00Z CAMs tonight show moderate elevated
instability surging into southern Kansas early Thursday morning as
mid-level moisture pushes northward. A cluster of storms is progged
to develop along the mid-level baroclinic zone, which will
likely be located across central or south-central Kansas early
Thursday morning. Sufficient shear and instability should be
enough to support organized elevated storms Thursday morning for
much of southern and eastern Kansas, and it`s possible an
organized MCS could impact many locations east of the I-135
corridor. Main concerns with any storms Thursday morning will be
large hail (perhaps larger than quarter-sized), and isolated
damaging wind gusts. This is where a lot of uncertainty begins
to enter the forecast. Many of tonight`s CAMs suggested that
elevated convection would throw an outflow boundary westward
throughout the day. The first scenario, and the one that is
looking increasingly more likely, is that this outflow boundary
restricts the warm sector to the CWA`s south and west. This
would limit significant severe storms (most likely supercells
developing off of a dryline in the High Plains) to southwest
Kansas and the OK/TX Panhandles. The other scenario, like what
is depicted off of the HRRR and Fv3, has the outflow boundary
stay quite a bit further east allowing for a much larger
eastward extent of moist, unstable air. This, along with backed
surface winds within the OFB`s proximity, could lead to enhanced
tornado potential Thursday evening for locations west of the
US-281 corridor if storms move far enough east before CIN builds
in during the nighttime hours. Either way, the dryline/Pacific
front is expected to surge eastward, and with background
synoptic lift, additional storms should develop across western
Kansas and move eastward across the forecast area overnight.
However, storm mode will likely be mixed to linear, and the
threats for areas along and west of the Flint Hills will be
limited to marginal severe hail and damaging winds.

     Friday...
Ongoing storms overnight will accompany a Pacific
Front/dryline progressing eastward across the area. However, models
are suggesting the progression of this feature may be a bit slower
than previously forecast. As such, a moderately unstable airmass
will likely be in place Friday afternoon for locations along and
east of the Flint Hills. If a storm were to develop during the
afternoon hours, the environment would be able to support supercells
capable of all modes of severe weather including large hail,
damaging winds, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes. That being said,
the upper trough is expected to be exiting the region to the north
and east, and height rises across the area would likely induce
subsidence across much of eastern Kansas which would hinder storm
development. As a result, storm coverage is expected to be isolated
at best for locations across southeast Kansas. The threat for severe
storms should come to an end by sunset Friday evening as any
ongoing storm should be in Missouri by that time.

     Saturday...
Low-level moisture should gradually return to north and west
overnight Friday into Saturday morning as a second upper trough
approaches the region from the Rockies. There is some
variability between some of the mid-range global models, but the
triple point should be somewhere in the vicinity of south-
central Kansas with a frontal boundary extending northeastward
into the Missouri Valley and a dryline extending southward into
western Oklahoma. By midday Saturday, current modeling suggests
capping may be next to non-existent, and it`s possible
thunderstorms may initiate early in the afternoon even without
optimal synoptic support. Moderate instability and sufficient
shear should support organized storms, but storm mode has the
potential to be quite messy, especially further north where
storm motions will be parallel with the frontal boundary. The
frontal boundary and dryline will likely retreat throughout the
day, and with better synoptic support arriving later in the
afternoon/evening, multiple rounds of storms may be possible.
Any storm that can remain discrete/semi-discrete will have the
opportunity to produce all modes of severe weather, including
tornadoes. Given the possibility of training thunderstorms,
flooding caused by heavy rainfall may be a threat that needs to
be taken into consideration, even with how little rainfall the
region has seen so far this spring. Storm chances should come to
an end overnight from west to east.

     Sunday and Next Week...
The moist, unstable airmass should get
shunted well off to the east by midday Sunday, but portions of far
southeastern Kansas may still see initial storm development Sunday
afternoon before storms move into Missouri. Any severe threats would
likely be limited to large hail and damaging winds. An upper ridge
is expected to slide into the central plains by the beginning of
next week, and warming trend is likely to ensue as a result. Rain
chances should be low at best for much of next week, and the next
opportunity for storms across the area will have to wait until
the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Shower/thunderstorm chances will gradually be on the increase
tonight, persisting through at least Thursday morning, as
800-600mb warm/moist advection increases amidst increasing
instability. The instability/shear combination should favor at
least a handful of strong to severe storms capable of large
hail, along with locally heavy rainfall. Covered this threat
with PROB30 groups for now at all TAF sites. Additionally, the
increasing low-level moisture will support widespread MVFR to
possibly IFR ceilings later tonight through Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 251 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Friday: Very high grassland fire danger is expected Friday afternoon
as dry air and windy conditions affect portions of central and south-
central Kansas.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...ADK
FIRE WEATHER...JC