Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 210046
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
846 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving upper level low pressure system will track
through the Mid-Atlantic region this weekend, bringing
scattered rain showers to the area. On and off rain showers
with mild temperatures continue into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
845 PM update...
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms have developed
across Bradford County and parts of the central southern tier in
a very narrow moisture axis rotating around the upper level
low. This activity may brush Schuyler and Yates County through
11PM then dissipate with loss of heating. Rest of forecast in
good shape.

355 PM Update...Upper level low continues to spin across the
Ohio Valley while very slowly moving east. Water vapor loop
shows the deep, southerly moisture plume has shifted east of our
area now, and central NY/NE PA is along the edge of the mid
level dry slot. Visible satellite shows breaks of sun developing
across our central and western zones (close to the mid level dry
slot)...however surface and mixed layer instability is rising
due to daytime heating. Latest mesoanalysis shows between
250-500 J/kg and lifted indices between 0 to -2. KBGM radar
shows scattered showers moving SE to NW across the region late
this afternoon, but lightning is very limited. There is still a
lot deep layer shear, perhaps too much, with 0-6km shear now
around 70 kts. SPC dropped the marginal risk for severe storms,
so with this update, we are just expecting perhaps an isolated
t`storm through 7PM. Later this evening and tonight it should be
mainly dry under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Cannot rule out
a stray shower or sprinkle. Mild with lows in the mid 40s to
around 50.

The upper level low moves along the Mason-Dixon line on Sunday,
bringing mostly cloudy skies and scattered showers to the region
once again. Some of the showers could be rather slow moving as
the steering flow decreases. Therefore may need to keep an eye
out for locally heavy downpours. Not much if any instability so
thunder seems rather unlikely. Remaining mild with highs in the
60s. Southwest winds turn northwest late in the day; under 10 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
355 PM Update...Upper level low passes by well to our south
across the Mid-Atlantic. Our area will see a variable flow
regime, starting east-southeast then turning more north-
northeasterly as the low moves east along the coast. There will
be a slight chance to low end chance for some wrap around
showers under mostly cloudy skies. The upper level low then
slides further northeast off the coast of Long Island Monday
into Monday night. Latest guidance seems to be backing off on
rain potential during this timeframe...but with that said there
will still be a chance for scattered rain showers during this
period. Late Monday night the low shifts east, well off the
coast and our weather should dry out areawide as upper level
heights rise. Staying milder than average this period with lows
in the 40s and highs in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Tuesday starts off with warm, moist air funneling into the area
thanks to southerly flow ahead of the approaching cold front. This
could touch off some showers during the morning, followed by
increasing chances for scattered showers and storms through the
afternoon and evening ahead of the front. Models continue to
indicate a few hundred J/KG of CAPE in the area for later in the
day Tuesday, and while winds could turn gusty in storms, there is
little to indicate any risk of strong to severe storms. Furthermore,
while PWATs increase to around an inch Tuesday night, we are not
working with any deep layer moisture. So, while some heavier
downpours are possible in storms, flooding shouldn`t be much of a
concern. Otherwise, Tuesday looks to be the warmest day of the
extended period, with lows generally in the mid/upper 40s and highs
in the 70s.

The front finally works through Tuesday night, stalling out to our
south as the surface low slowly makes its way towards New Brunswick.
Chances for showers will linger through Wednesday behind this
exiting system, and while our best chances for a brief dry period
will be Thursday afternoon as we experience some ridging, a stray
shower cannot be ruled out especially across the southern portions
of the area ahead of another approaching shortwave. This drags
another cold front through Friday, with better chances for showers
throughout the day. Rain wraps up into Saturday as high pressure
takes control once again. As for temperatures, look for lows
generally in the 40s and highs in the 50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through this TAF period. An upper
level low will remain in the mid Atlantic region through
Sunday. Scattered mid level clouds are expected overnight with
ceilings around 4K feet developing by mid morning Sunday.
Isolated showers are expected on Sunday but coverage not enough
to include in TAF. Late Sunday afternoon at KITH ceilings may
fall into the MVFR category as winds go light northwest.

South/southeast winds around 10 knots decreasing to around 5
knots overnight. Variable winds around 5 knots on Sunday.

Outlook...

Sunday night through Monday...Mainly VFR with occasional
restrictions possible in rain showers.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

Tuesday Night and Wednesday...Restrictions possible in periods
of rain and a chance of thunderstorms.

Thursday...VFR expected.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MJM
NEAR TERM...MJM/RRM
SHORT TERM...MJM
LONG TERM...HLC
AVIATION...RRM


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