Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 181054

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
654 AM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018

Temperatures will remain below normal through the coming week.
However, our weather will also be fairly quiet, with high
pressure mostly in control. There is a small chance for some
snow to skim by the Poconos and Catskills Tuesday into
Wednesday, but at this time it appears more likely that the
system will stay southeast of our region.


310 AM Update...
The near term will feature cold yet quiet weather, as ridges of
dry high pressure are separated only by a weak moisture-starved
front that will pass through the area late today into tonight.

It has taken awhile for decoupling to occur due to pressure
gradient that still exists over the area. However, surface ridge
is now poking in over the region which is slackening the wind
and allowing for window of radiational cooling up to dawn this
morning. As expected, there is a quite a spread in temperatures,
and the coldest readings are in the northeastern zones. At this
hour Woodgate in the far corner of Oneida County has actually
hit zero. Single digit temperatures can be found peppered in
pockets of Oneida-Onondaga-Madison-Otsego counties. Most
locations of Central New York are in the teens, while for
Northeast PA-Sullivan County NY 20s are more common.

Upstream, GOES-16 satellite imagery shows evidence of our next
weak wave, now dropping through Ontario with a deck of clouds a
few to several thousand feet above ground level. A decent amount
of sunshine can still be expected for our area today, though
these clouds will encroach across Central NY this afternoon,
and into Northeast PA tonight, before scattering out as another
high pressure ridge takes over on Monday. A stray flurry is not
totally impossible tonight as the subtle front slips through,
but overall moisture appears limited enough to make a mention of
flurries not even worth placing into the forecast.

Highs today will range from around 30 northeast to mid 30s-mid
40s for Finger Lakes-Southern Tier NY and especially Northeast
PA where mildest readings will be found. Tonight will be
similar to this morning; lows ranging from single digits far
northeast to teens-lower 20s elsewhere. Weak cool air advection
behind the weak front Monday, will be counterbalanced by
abundant sunshine to still allow temperatures to hit upper 20s-
near 30 north, to lower 30s-lower 40s central and south. This
will be about 7-14 degrees shy of climatological average highs.


Latest suite of model runs indicate both coastal storms will
remain far enough south and east to have very little impact in
local area. Monday night into Tuesday, mid level wave will move
through the mid Atlantic region with surface low tracking from
the Tennessee valley and off the Delmarva coast. This system
will then lift northeast and well out to sea while the next
upper level wave digs through the southeast states with
resulting secondary surface low forming over the southeast and
tracking northeast off the North Carolina coast. The ECMWF
remains farther south with both systems compared to the GFS.
Will continue with just slight chance/chance pops through the
period across the far southeast forecast area. High pressure
over eastern Canada will make for a very tight moisture gradient
with soundings showing plenty of low level dry air. At this
time it looks as if the Poconos and perhaps the southern
Catskills could see a few tenths of snowfall. Will remove
mention of storm from HWO. Otherwise it will remain dry across
the region with a continuation of cold temperatures.


Wednesday night through Friday night looks quiet with surface
high pressure over eastern Canada. Temperatures will run about
10 to 15 degrees below seasonal normals.

Saturday through Sunday, low pressure will move from the mid
west across the Ohio Valley and through the mid Atlantic region.
The GFS is faster with this system than the ECMWF. Will carry
chance/slight chance pops through the period with the highest
pops in the southern forecast area. Precipitation type will be
primarily light snow although during the afternoon periods the
snow could mix with rain as temperatures rise into the upper 30s
to around 40 in valley areas.


High pressure and a dry atmosphere will mostly yield quiet
conditions through the TAF period. However, the only exception
is that a weak shallow cool front will slip over the area late
today into tonight, allowing a VFR deck of clouds to drop north
to south over the area, initially in the 5-7 kft agl range.
Eventually tonight, high end MVFR ceilings will be realized at
KBGM- KITH-KELM and even KAVP late, but probably not dipping
quite into MVFR for KSYR-KRME. Ceilings will tend to scatter
out as we head into Monday. Light and variable wind early this
morning, will become NW 4-8 knots late morning through
afternoon before slacking in evening.


Monday through Monday night...VFR.

Tuesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR. Small chance of snow and
restrictions at KAVP on Tuesday; system probably staying south.




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