Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 160533
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
133 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will usher another round of showers into NY and PA
tonight and Sunday. A few thunderstorms are possible from the
Twin Tiers southward Sunday afternoon as unstable air works into
the region. A frontal boundary will remain near NY and PA for
most of the upcoming week with unsettled weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

Midnight update... The first batch of showers is moving into
the Catskills and exiting our region as of midnight Sunday
morning. A brief break is occurring this first batch and rain
chances were lowered a bit to account for this during the
overnight. However, another batch of showers is still expected
to move northeastward into NE PA and the Southern Tier by
daybreak. Rainfall continues to be in the light to moderate
range. Temperatures are still expected to be fairly steady
around 60 as well overnight.


930 PM update...made some more adjustments to POPs,
temperatures, sky and wind as precipitation rapidly overspreads
NY and northern PA. The mosaic radar imagery shows the remnant
of an MCS moving across northwest and north central PA at this
time. This feature was encountering much more stable air over
northeast PA and central NY. The MCS will get caught up in the
advancing upper level short wave which was moving across
southeast Ontario into southwest Quebec. Showers will continue
to increase for the overnight period as a result. Another MCS
over western Ohio and eastern Indiana will eventually follow
this first MCS and again encounter more stable air in central NY
and northeast PA mainly during the day on Sunday with more
showers. The NAMnest is quickest in exiting the precipitation
Sunday afternoon with the other hi resolution CAMs models
hanging on to precipitation until later in the afternoon. All
the CAMs models suggest precipitation all the way to northern NY
into the afternoon which is at odds with our current NWS NDFD
forecast. This suggests uncertainties as to how far north the
precipitation lingers in NY state Sunday afternoon. My gut
feeling is that we will be increasing POPs farther north into
the early to mid afternoon hours Sunday with the next fresh set
of guidance from the 00z balloon launches.

545 PM update...did a quick update to account for more showers
in the twin-tier region. Showers were rapidly spreading across
western and central NY and northern PA in response to a well-
defined upper level short wave moving into the eastern Lakes
region. Southwest low-level winds were increasing in response
to the arrival of this upper feature increasing moisture
transport. Model soundings show a layer of moisture between 850
mb and 600 mb which is sufficient for some light rain showers
especially given the divergence aloft. Increased POPs to
account for this. Also adjusted temps, winds and sky cover also.

240 PM update...

A frontal system moving through the Great Lakes toward NY and PA
will bring thickening clouds and an increase in showers this
evening and overnight. PWAT values of 1.25 to 1.50 inches are
fairly typical of stormy patterns during the summer, and without
a threat for thunderstorms, hydro concerns are not forecast.

Showers will continue Sunday. A small amount of instability
could potentially develop over the far southern forecast area on
Sunday afternoon and cause isolated thunderstorms. High
temperatures in the lower-70s are forecast.

High pressure will briefly build southward Sunday night and
bring an end to the rain north of the Southern Tier. A few
showers will continue from the Southern Tier southward into PA.
Temperatures will fall into the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
An active period, with multiple waves moving through a moist and
unstable westerly flow. Best chance for periods of showers and
thunderstorms will be across NE PA and perhaps up into the NY
southern tier through the short term period...meanwhile much of this
time frame may end up dry further north toward the NY Thruway
corridor. Temperatures will be near average with highs in the 70s
(near 80 south) and lows in the mid-50s to low 60s.

Monday and Monday night: Starting off dry as high pressure noses in
from Ontario/New England. Then a shortwave rolls through the Ohio
Valley, with a weak surface low reflection moving eastward across
southern PA. Instability increase Monday afternoon and evening,
mainly south of the NY/PA border. PWATS rise to around 1.5 inches
along and south of the NY/PA border and surface dew points rise back
into the upper 50s and lower 60s. There are still minor model
differences in the exact track and timing of the above mentioned
feature, but it seems there will be a good chance for showers and a
few thunderstorms again from the NY southern tier south into  NE PA
late Monday and Monday night...in fact the latest ECMWF actually
shows a period of heavier rain moving through during this time.
Therefore, went ahead and added some likely PoPs for our southern
and eastern zones. Also went close to WPC QPF for this period, which
was quite high; a half to three quarters of an inch near Scranton--
Honesdale and Monticello.

Tuesday and Tuesday night: Zonal, moist and unstable flow continues
as the stalled frontal boundary remains over the region. Additional
weak disturbances will likely moves through the area...but tough to
time these at this range. Therefore went to high end chance to low
end likely far south in NE PA, to lower end chance for the NY
southern tier, the mainly dry or slight chance up toward the Thruway
corridor of NY. Again, it looks like there could be moderate amounts
of instability mainly from the Twin Tiers south so added in chances
of thunder here.

Wednesday and Wednesday night: A very persistent pattern continues
with much of the same into this period. Higher chance PoPs still for
NE PA, fading to low chance or slight chance north. It appears there
is decent agreement between the latest guidance that the flow will
turn a bit more southwesterly out ahead of the next more significant
shortwave and low pressure system that looks to potentially impact
our area toward Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
345 PM UPDATE...

Rain chances will increase for Thursday with another surface low
moving through the Ohio Valley and towards New England. The best
chances for rain will be during the afternoon and evening ahead of
the approaching cold front, and with some elevated CAPE and a well-
sheared environment, thunderstorms are looking increasingly likely.
With precipitable water up to 1-1.5 in during this time, there is a
chance for heavy downpours in storms.

Chances for showers linger throughout the day Friday behind the
exiting system, and while most areas should stay dry Friday night
into Saturday morning with high pressure briefly building in,
chances for showers will increase again Saturday with another surge
of moisture across the region as another surface low developing in
the Plains heads towards Lake Superior.

Otherwise, little change in temperatures with this forecast update.
Highs will generally be in the mid 70s, and lows in the mid/upper
50s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Conditions ranging from VFR at KAVP to IFR at KRME. For NY TAF
sites trends will be for ceilings to to stay steady or lower
through most of the pre-dawn hours today. ALl NY terminals are
expected to have MVFR ceilings by sunrise which linger through
most of the day Sunday. IFR ceilings are expected to be
predominant at KRME but may also be present for a while (10-16Z
window) at KBGM, KITH and KSYR Sunday morning. Winds will be
lighter today under 10 knots. Slow improvement in ceilings to
VFR Sunday evening.

Outlook...

Monday and Monday night: mainly VFR.

Tuesday through Thursday... Restrictions Possible with a period
or two of showers. The highest coverage looks to be on
Thursday. A thunderstorm or two can not be ruled out at some
point.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN/DJP
NEAR TERM...DJN/DJP/MWG
SHORT TERM...MJM
LONG TERM...HLC
AVIATION...MWG



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