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000
FXUS63 KICT 160533
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1233 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

A pronounced shortwave trough over New Mexico this afternoon (per
water vapor imagery), will propagate slowly eastward over the
southern Plains tonight into Sunday. A weak surface-850 mb cold
front, extending from southeast Nebraska to central and southwestern
Kansas, will sink slowly southward. By early Sunday evening, the
front should extend from central Missouri across southeast Kansas to
western Oklahoma. The front and approaching mid-level shortwave
trough will be potential trigger mechanisms for thunderstorms.
Initial isolated strong-severe storms could form by early this
evening along the front in central Kansas where the inhibition is
weakening. Storm activity should increase across northern
Oklahoma/southern Kansas later this evening/overnight, as moisture
transport develops/strengthens in response to a weak low-level jet,
coincident with very weak height falls aloft. Will taper rain
chances from 20/30% in central Kansas, to likely (60-70%) in the far
south tonight. MUCAPE of 2500-4000 j/kg, deep-layer shear of 25-35
knots, and strong downdraft CAPE of ~1500 j/kg will support isolated
occurrences of large hail, however damaging winds would be the most
probable severe threat with cold pool development likely. Localized
strips of heavy rainfall are also possible mainly in the south,
given higher precipitable water and slow Corfidi propagation
vectors.

Will maintain 20-30% thunderstorm chances in south-central and
southeast Kansas for Sunday-Sunday night, as the shortwave trough
continues its slow migration across Oklahoma and southern Kansas.

-Caruso

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

By Monday morning, the upper-level low will be located in the
vicinity of northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas, with the
stationary surface front stretching across far southeast Kansas,
extending both northeast-ward towards the St. Louis metro area and
southwest-ward towards Oklahoma City. During the morning commute,
lingering showers and thunderstorms will be possible roughly
along and east of the Kansas Turnpike. Instability parameters will
have decreased somewhat so showers/thunderstorms are not likely
to be severe by this time as they continue to weaken in intensity
as they track to the southeast. Models differ on the solution for
the remainder of the day on Monday from the afternoon-evening,
with the ECMWF and GFS suggesting weak 500mb ridging across
central Kansas in the wake of the exiting system (keeping the
forecast dry), while the NAM keeps this ridging slightly further
to the west. Thinking that this ridging will likely keep rain
chances in check for central Kansas for much of the day, so have
trended back pops here for this issuance, keeping in mind they may
need to be trimmed even further with later forecasts.

Overnight Monday night and through Wednesday morning, a series of
mid/upper shortwaves will usher in more chances for periodic showers
and thunderstorms across the forecast area. Although widespread
severe storms appear unlikely, a few storms could be strong during
this period. A break in the active pattern looks to come during the
day on Thursday when most of the area should remain dry before storm
chances increase once again by Friday evening and into Saturday.

Temperatures throughout the extended period will largely remain
below normal values, with highs in the low 80s Monday - Wednesday.
Temperatures are expected to warm back up to near climatology during
the latter portion of the workweek, with temperatures reaching the
upper 80s or low 90s.

-Vaughan

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

Messy aviation forecast with good instability across southern half
of forecast area, but flow aloft is weak so much of the movement
is cold pool dominated. Will have tempo TSRA at KICT and KCNU for
several hours early on, then transitioning to VCTS into the
morning. Anticipate precipitation to end before mid morning at
KICT,although KCNU could linger well into the moring with
approaching upper low. This will also play into chances this
afternoon as effective surface boundary may be quite diffuse.
Anticipating only isolated at best this afternoon at KCNU with
some support from northern side of upper low and slight uptick
during the evening. -Howerton

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    67  83  64  83 /  60  20  20  20
Hutchinson      65  84  63  83 /  40  10  10  30
Newton          65  82  64  81 /  50  20  10  30
ElDorado        67  81  64  81 /  60  20  20  30
Winfield-KWLD   67  82  64  82 /  60  40  20  30
Russell         64  84  60  83 /  10  10  10  30
Great Bend      64  83  60  83 /  10  10  10  20
Salina          65  86  62  84 /  10  10  10  30
McPherson       64  84  62  82 /  30  10  10  30
Coffeyville     69  82  65  83 /  70  50  30  50
Chanute         67  82  64  82 /  60  40  30  40
Iola            67  82  64  82 /  60  30  20  40
Parsons-KPPF    66  82  65  83 /  70  40  30  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...TAV
AVIATION...PJH