Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 240357

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1057 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

Warm southerly breezes dominate the weather pattern late this
afternoon, as the main warm front has lifted northeast into NE KS.
Dryline making slow progress into central KS at this time, but a
strong elevated mixed layer (cap) will kept a lid on anything
developing along the dryline. As the evening progresses, expect warm
advection and isentropic lift ahead of the main low pressure area to
increase the chances for showers and a few thunderstorms for areas
just to the NE of the forecast area, over NE KS, closer to the warm
front. This increasing warm flow, may lead to some patchy drizzle
just to the west-SW of KEMP so will add this mention for this
evening, as low level saturation increases over the northern Flint

Main cold front associated with a developing surface low pressure
area is expected to develop over NW KS, and is expected to sweep
southeast across the forecast late tonight into Sat morning, as the
low treks east into wrn MO by Sat morning. Expecting any precip
along the front to the stay to the north of the forecast area,
where elevated mixed layer is weaker and convergence is a better.

Sat-Sun: the cold front will push south into the Red River valley
for Sat thru Sat night, with high pressure leading to a nice spring
day. Some cold advection will lead to cooler temps, closer to
normal. The weak ridging and surface ridge will quickly shift to the
east of the forecast late Sat night, with SW flow leading to low
level moisture quickly returning to the plains by early Sun morning.
Isentropic lift/moisture return and upslope flow will lead to
increasing clouds by Sun morning, with possibly a few scattered
showers breaking out across southern KS by Sun afternoon. Models
differ on how they want to handle the main surface trough and low
pressure area for Sun evening/night.  With either solution,
increasing depth of the moisture in the sw flow, suggests shower and
embedded thunderstorm chance will ramp up for Sunday evening and
Sunday night.  Still some uncertainty on where the heaviest rainfall
will be, but certainly looks like a decent rain chance, as diffluent
flow increases across the area. The rainiest time frame looks to be
late Sun night through Mon morning.

Stalled frontal boundary will be slow to move across the forecast
area for Mon and possibly through Tue morning, as the boundary
remains parallel to the mid level SW flow.  Looks like a rainy start
to the week, as low level moisture will continue to overrun the
boundary as least through tue morning, for an off and on shower and
thunderstorm chances.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Friday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

Some uncertainty on the how the middle of the week will play out, as
the main shortwave over the Rockies gradually makes its way across
the plains for Tue evening, with the frontal boundary pushing south
into OK for Tue night.  the uncertainty lies in how far south the
front will actually get before stalling over OK. Moisture over the
top of the boundary may make it back into southern KS for the middle
of the week for additional shower chances.

Temperatures will be problematic for the end of the forecast,
depending on amount of clouds/precipitation. Potentially could see a
couple of fairly couple of day near, with temps a little below
seasonal norms.



.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1051 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

Aviation concerns will be low clouds moving out of se KS and some
possible over central KS Sat morning.

Surface low currently situated over central KS with a convective
complex tracking over south central/se Nebraska. Looks like this
area of storms may have formed an MCV, based on radar trends.
MVFR ceilings will remain over se KS for the next few hours before
pushing east by around 10z. May see some MVFR cigs spill down
from the north affecting central KS Sat morning as cooler air
continues to move in. Cold front is expected to move through KICT
around 11z and KCNU around 13z, flipping winds around to the north
and northwest.


Issued at 259 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

Gusty winds late this today with fairly dry air will result in a
very high grassland fire danger for most locations. Conditions
improve on Saturday-Sunday, but increasing winds on Monday will lead
to a very high grassland fire danger again for most areas.



Wichita-KICT    51  66  38  58 /   0   0  10  30
Hutchinson      49  64  36  57 /  10   0  10  20
Newton          49  62  36  56 /   0   0  10  30
ElDorado        50  63  36  57 /   0   0  10  30
Winfield-KWLD   53  67  39  59 /   0   0  10  40
Russell         47  62  35  56 /  10   0  10  20
Great Bend      48  64  36  57 /  10   0  10  20
Salina          48  60  35  56 /  20   0  10  30
McPherson       48  61  35  56 /  10   0  10  30
Coffeyville     56  68  38  59 /  10   0   0  40
Chanute         53  63  36  56 /  20   0   0  40
Iola            53  61  36  56 /  20   0   0  30
Parsons-KPPF    55  66  38  58 /  10   0   0  40




SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
FIRE WEATHER...Ketcham is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.