922
FXUS63 KICT 160519
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1219 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Best chance for widespread showers and storms across the area is
  expected Wednesday night to Thursday night.

- Warmer on Wednesday with a brief cooldown on Thursday followed by
  temperatures rising into the weekend.

- Spotty scattered showers and storms are possible through the
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Tonight into Thursday night... A low-level jet will increase tonight
coupled with increasing low-level moisture advection leading to a
chance of storms north of our area overnight. On Wednesday,
increasing southerly flow at the surface will lead to warmer
temperatures ahead of a cold front. High temperatures are expected
to rise into the 90s with some areas around 100. This cold front is
expected to move into our area on Wednesday night as a shortwave
trough traverses east across the Northern Plains. As the front
advances south, chances for widespread showers and storms increase
Wednesday night into Thursday night. Strong to a few severe
thunderstorms are possible given the strong instability and
increasing low-level jet. Given the weak deep layer shear and decent
values of DCAPE, the main impacts would likely be strong gusty
winds, locally heavy rain, and small hail. With the front pushing
further south on Thursday, high temperatures will be in the upper
70s to lower 90s. By Thursday night, PWAT values are expected to
increase to about 2.00" which is close to the daily max making
efficient rainfall likely. Given weaker instability and wind shear
is forecast, severe thunderstorms are not anticipated.

Friday to Friday night... On Friday, the front will lift back north
into the area returning southerly flow at the surface. High
temperatures will return back into the 90s. Low level moisture
advection will persist with instability increasing in northern
Kansas leading to an additional small chance of storms on Friday
night.

Sat-Tue... Going into the weekend, our area will be more influenced
by the weak upper-level ridge. Thickness will increase with high
temperatures rising into the mid 90s to low 100s. Diurnally driven
scattered storms will be possible at times during the weekend.
Moving into early next week, similar temperatures are expected to
the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1211 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Currently, a complex of showers and storms is progressing across
Nebraska and far northern Kansas, and much of this activity is
expected to stay north of the I-70 corridor. However, an outflow
boundary is racing southward into portions of central Kansas,
and a wind shift to northerly/northeasterly is expected for a
handful of hours across central Kansas. Winds will gradually
return to southerly by 12Z.

Much of the morning and early afternoon hours will remain quiet
with surface winds around 10 to 15 knots out of the south across
the area.

A cold front will sag into central Kansas late this
afternoon/early this evening, and scattered showers and storms
are forecast to develop along it and likely impact a number of
TAF sites and surrounding locations after 00Z. Strong to
marginally severe storms cannot be ruled out with up to quarter
sized hail and 50-60 knot winds possible. However, there is
still some uncertainty about coverage of storms, so it was
decided to go with PROB30s for KRSL, KGBD, KSLN, and KHUT until
details can be nailed down a bit better. Additionally, northerly
winds will accompany frontal passage with wind speeds around 10
to 15 knots.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...JC