665
FXUS63 KICT 102337
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
637 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet with seasonal temperatures continue through Saturday

- Shower and thunderstorm chances return Sunday morning into  next
  week -- best chances Sunday into Monday

- Severe weather is not expected over the next 7 days

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 201 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

As of 2 PM, a shortwave, midlevel ridge axis was sliding across the
central and southern Plains. An associated surface ridge axis
extended from eastern CO through northeast OK. This ridge axis has
resulted in light northerly winds across the forecast and should
continue to be the case overnight. Benign weather will continue
over the next 24-36 hours across the state. Temperatures will
remain seasonal for early to mid-May standards in the 70s to
near 80. The next chance (80-100%) for showers and thunderstorms
arrives Sunday into Monday as a decaying midlevel low slowly
moves across the central Plains. Ensemble guidance continues to
suggest PW values will increase to near 1" by Sunday morning,
which should support moderate rain at times. Latest NBM
probabilities reveal the entire forecast area has a greater than
70% chance for receiving at least 0.50" from Sunday through
Monday night.

Midlevel ridging will slide into the central US Tuesday, briefly
ending rain chances. The next midlevel shortwave trough approaches
the area Wednesday into Thursday, bringing rain chances back to the
area. Again, an overlap of shear and instability appears unlikely
which should keep the severe thunderstorm potential low.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 635 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours.

Few to scattered VFR clouds will gradually diminish with the
loss of daytime heating. Winds will generally remain
northwesterly at around 5 to 15 knots through the TAF period.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BMB
AVIATION...JC