Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
065 FXUS62 KJAX 150449 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 1249 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .NEAR TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 1247 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Low pressure trough off the Florida East Coast near the Gulf Stream this morning will track slowly westward today pushing across North Central Florida this afternoon and into the Eastern Gulf Tonight. With the strong northerly shear aloft across the low pressure system, not expecting much intensification of the low pressure, but it will interact the East Coast sea breeze front as it pushes westward across North Central this afternoon and the tropical moisture with this system will help to trigger numerous to widespread showers and storms across NE FL as it moves across the region this afternoon, and again the main threat will be heavy rainfall, but a few strong to isolated storms with gusty winds to 40-60 mph still possible through the afternoon and into the early evening hours. Farther north across SE GA, slightly lower moisture values will lead to more scattered shower and storm coverage. Surface flow will more onshore from the Northeast today at 10-15 mph along the Atlantic Coastal areas with highs in the upper 80s to around 90F, with heat indices of 100-105F along the I-95 and US 301 corridors, while farther inland with later arrival of convection, expect Max Temps to reach into the lower/middle 90s with peak heat indices around 105F. Convection over inland areas will fade after sunset and end by midnight, while the South to Southeast flow on the back side of the system will continue widely scattered showers and storms, mainly over the Atlantic Coastal waters tonight, but a few may push onshore into the Atlantic Coastal counties during the overnight hours as they weaken. Low temps generally in the lower/middle 70s inland and upper 70s along the Atlantic Coast. && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday through Thursday night) Issued at 1247 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Area of low pressure will move west across northern Gulf Wednesday, as high pressure builds to the east. There will still be local impacts from the low Wednesday, in the form of higher precipitation chances over inland areas, as moisture wraps northeast across region from the low. Precipitation chances will decrease a little on Thursday, as high pressure ridge moves closer to overhead. Temperatures this period will trend a little above average. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Monday) Issued at 1247 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 The high pressure ridge will continue to extend across the area Friday. The ridge will move to the southeast over the weekend, as a trough develops in the southeastern US. This pattern will persist then into early next week. Above average precipitation chances expected this period, especially inland due to flow from the south then southwest. Temperatures will trend above normal this period. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1247 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Northeast flow off the Atlantic is expected to help moisten the low levels this morning and expect MVFR CIGS to develop at all TAF locations through the 06-09Z time frame and linger through the 15Z time frame. Only a few showers (VCSH) are expected through 15Z at CRG/SGJ, otherwise will need to wait for the East Coast sea breeze to develop and push inland through the afternoon hours and expect PROB30 groups for TSRA activity at SGJ/CRG/JAX and with higher rainfall chances at GNV/VQQ will place TEMPO groups there, mainly from 18-22Z time frame. Further north at SSI, shower activity will mostly develop west of the station and will just leave with VCSH for now. Convection will end at the coastal TAF sites in the 00-02Z time frame, and in the 02-04Z time frame at the inland TAF sites of VQQ/GNV. && .MARINE... Issued at 1247 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 A weak area of low pressure over the Gulf Stream off the Florida East Coast will begin to shift westward this morning. An increase in showers and thunderstorms coverage is expected Today as the low shifts westward across the Florida peninsula tonight and into the eastern Gulf on Wednesday, with low pressure potentially strengthening later in the week near the northern Gulf coast. NHC has highlighted the northern Gulf coast for a low chance of tropical/subtropical development for this week. Prevailing northeasterly winds Today will shift to southerly by tonight as the low shifts west of our local waters, with south-southeasterly winds briefly strengthening to Caution levels tonight and Wednesday. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms will continue through late in the week as southerly winds prevail. Rip Currents: A more solid Moderate risk of rip currents is expected today as the low pressure off the Florida East Coast tracks westward into Florida Peninsula tonight, which will increase onshore winds slightly today with surf/breakers around 2 feet. Moderate risk will continue on Wednesday as South to Southeast winds increase surf/breakers to 2-3 ft. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 94 73 92 74 / 40 20 60 10 SSI 86 78 88 79 / 40 20 40 10 JAX 90 75 93 76 / 60 30 70 10 SGJ 87 75 91 76 / 70 40 70 10 GNV 90 72 92 74 / 90 50 90 20 OCF 89 72 91 74 / 100 70 90 20 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$