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000
FXUS62 KJAX 172131
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
531 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2019

.NEAR TERM /Tonight and Tomorrow morning/...

Scattered showers and storms will continue to build and move
across the forecast area until later tonight, with the strongest
storms currently occurring south of I-10 as well as west of I-75
with more isolated developments crossing over inland southeast
Georgia. Southeasterly winds will calm overnight, with convection
dying down for most areas earlier in the evening. Winds will veer
to out of the southwest overnight as the weak trough continues its
path northward towards the Carolinas. Overnight low temperatures
are expected to be in the lower 70s for inland areas and in the
mid 70s for coastal areas. Patchy fog developments are possible by
early morning but widespread fog is not expected.

.SHORT TERM /Tuesday and Wednesday/...

Southwesterly winds will bring in moist and warm air into the
region with Precipitable Water (PWAT) levels rising to over 2
inches, resulting in abundant storms and showers on Tuesday and
Wednesday. Scattered convection can potentially develop region-
wide, but the areas with the strongest levels of development are
going to occur along and just west of the I-95 corridor on
Tuesday, and on Wednesday the area of strongest convection will
occur along the I-75 corridor and then be carried eastward with
the prevailing flow. High temperatures during this span will
range between the upper 80s and low 90s, with coastal locations
not experiencing temps much cooler than inland areas due to the
westerly/southwesterly winds halting the east coast sea breeze
from moving onshore.

.LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...

Daily showers and thunderstorms will continue on until the end of
the week, with convection developing along with shortwave troughs
passing over the region from out of the west. PWAT levels will be
reduced over southeast Georgia and part of northeast Florida on
Thursday, with values dropping to about 1.5 inches making
it likely to experience less widespread convection compared with
Wednesday. However, moist conditions will return on Friday
ensuring another daily round of numerous storms and showers.
Forecast models show a high pressure influence affecting the
region over the weekend with the prevailing flow rotating over the
southeast US, shifting the predominant wind flow to out of the
north by Sunday and varying levels of moisture crossing over the
area making for intermittent spans of stormy activity. High
temperatures are going to steadily rise going into the weekend
reaching into the mid 90s by Sunday, with apparent temperatures
between 100 and 105. Overnight low temperatures are expected to be
in the mid to low 70s for inland area and in the upper 70s along
the coast.

&&

.AVIATION...

Scattered showers and t-storms have moved to inland northeast
FL area with much less activity as of 245 pm over southeast GA.
We will have trimmed off the threat of showers and storms for
some of the TAFs as radar trends and obs suggest only stronger
activity rest of today will be toward OCF-GNV and points northward
to Lake City and Live Oak areas. Convection should fade by the
evening hours as daytime heating wanes, and ending around the
00z-01z time frame. Patchy fog possible late tonight for one or
two inland TAFs but chances too low to mention at this time.
Another round of showers and storms for Tuesday, and addition of
PROB or Tempo groups will likely be in included in subsequent
TAFs with start timing toward the noon hour.

&&

.MARINE...

Winds will be out of the southeast today and tonight, shifting to
out of the southwest tomorrow as a weak trough over the region
moves off towards the Carolinas. Winds out over inland and
offshore Florida waters will increase to SCEC levels later tonight
and storm activity will increase over near and offshore waters
overnight and early tomorrow morning. Daily shower and storm
patterns are expected through Friday with winds reaching caution
level speeds later this week. Rip current risks are expected to
decrease tomorrow due to the winds shifting to out of the SW.

Rip Currents: Moderate Risk for NE Florida, Minor Risk for
tomorrow.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  90  71  90  72 /  50  30  40  30
SSI  84  77  85  76 /  10  30  40  20
JAX  88  72  90  74 /  40  10  40  20
SGJ  86  75  88  73 /  30  20  50  20
GNV  86  70  88  73 /  60  40  50  10
OCF  85  72  87  73 /  60  40  70  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Corless/Peterson/Enyedi