Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 160552
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
152 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019

.AVIATION...
Atlantic showers are developing this morning with additional
convective activity expected along the east coast as the morning
continues. Thunderstorms are expected by the afternoon, possibly
bringing brief bouts of IFR/LIFR to directly impacted terminals.
Activity will move from east to west as the day progresses with
diminishing convection after sunset on Sunday.

&&

UPDATE...
Most of the showers and thunderstorms have dissipated over South
Florida this evening with only isolated showers over the western
interior areas. These showers should continue to dissipate through
the evening hours as the heating is lost.

A short wave over the Central Gulf of Mexico this evening will
continue to move eastward and should move through South Florida on
Sunday. This should allow for showers and thunderstorms to develop
over the Atlantic waters late tonight and move westward into the
east coast metro areas Sunday morning. Therefore, isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue over the east
coast metro areas late tonight into Sunday morning, with isolated
showers this evening over the interior and west coast metro areas.

Rest of the forecast looks good at this time and no other changes
are planned.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 420 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2019/

.WET PATTERN CONTINUES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK...
.HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK...

DISCUSSION...
A mid to upper level trough of low pressure will remain over South
Florida the rest of this weekend into early next week, as short
waves move through South Florida along the trough of low pressure.
At the same time, a surface high over the Western Atlantic waters
will shift slowly southward into the Bahamas. This will keep the
deep tropical moisture in place over South Florida, as the light
steering flow shifts from a easterly direction late this weekend
to more of a south/southwest direction early next week. Therefore,
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue
over South Florida with the best coverage over the east coast
metro areas during the late night and morning hours shifting to
the interior and west coast metro areas during the afternoon and
evening hours on Sunday and Monday. The best coverage will then
shift to the east coast metro areas for Tuesday into Wednesday, as
the wind flow shifts more to a south/southwest direction.

The PWAT values will also remain in the 2 to 2.1 inch range over
South Florida through middle of next week which is near the 90th
percentile for this time of year. This will lead to the possibility
of some heavy rainfall from the slow moving thunderstorms.

EXTENDED FORECAST...
The mid to upper level trough of low pressure will dissipate late
next week allowing for some drier air to work into South Florida.
This will allow for the PWAT`s to fall back around 1.6 to 1.7
inches which is near normal for this time of year. The steering
flow will still remain in the south/southwest direction, as the
surface ridge will still be located over the Bahamas. Therefore,
the coverage will be more scattered over South Florida with the
best coverage over the interior and east coast metro areas.

MARINE...
The winds will be southeasterly late this weekend into Monday
before shifting to the south/southwest direction for Tuesday
through Friday of this week. The speeds will be 10 knots or less
tonight through Friday over most of South Florida waters, except
for the Atlantic waters where the wind speeds will be 10 to 15
knots tonight through Tuesday night. This will keep the seas at 3
feet or less in the Atlantic waters and 2 feet or less in the Gulf
waters of South Florida through Friday. Therefore, boating
conditions will be good outside of any showers or thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  86  75  85  74 /  60  50  70  50
Fort Lauderdale  85  77  84  77 /  60  60  70  60
Miami            86  77  85  76 /  60  50  70  50
Naples           87  75  86  74 /  60  40  60  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.

&&

AVIATION...02/RAG



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