Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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594
FXUS62 KMFL 211218
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
818 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2019

.UPDATE...

Surface high pressure centered over the eastern Gulf of Mexico
will be the dominating influence on our weather today, bringing
dry and quiet weather to South Florida. The 21.12z MFL sounding
showed a very dry airmass, with a precipitable water value of 0.51
inches, which is near the record daily minimum. Return periods for
this value average once or twice per year per NAEFS and GEFS
return intervals respectively. Made a few minor changes to the
grids to account for current sky coverage but otherwise the
forecast is in good shape and no significant changes are planned
this morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 726 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2019/

AVIATION...

VFR through the TAF period. Light and variable winds early this
morning will turn NNE-NE by early afternoon for the east coast
terminals while APF remains N-NW. Occasional gusts to 20 kt are
possible this afternoon. Winds will again turn light and variable
after sunset tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 324 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2019/

DISCUSSION...
A secondary front has moved through the region helping to reinforce
the cooler and drier air. A cool and crisp morning with lows ranging
from the lower 50s over the interior to around 60 along the coast.
High temps will be below normal in the upper 70s to around 80.

A sunny, dry and seasonably cool weather across South Florida to
end the weekend and into next week. High pressure will dominate
the weather pattern with a benign weather pattern across the
region. It will be noticeably less humid across the area with low
dewpoint temperatures. High pressure will slowly move into the
the western Atlantic as high temperatures will be in the upper 70s
and low 80s to begin the week.. As we progress through the week
winds will veer from NW- NE-E by midweek. As winds veer low level
moisture, humidity and temperatures will increase to the mid and
upper 80s by Wednesday and Thursday.

Towards the end of the week, models do not agree on the timing and
location of a mid-upper level trough moving across the CONUS and the
development of a low pressure system. We will continue to monitor
models as we approach next weekend, but regardless of the exact
surface and upper level features the trend is temperatures will be
warming and rain chances increasing.

MARINE...
High pressure dominating the weather pattern with
dry and benign weather. Winds will be northwesterly today veering
to northeast and easterly by mid-week. Seas in the Atlantic and
Gulf will be generally 2 to 3 feet, except for offshore Gulf
which will be 3 to 5 feet.

AVIATION...
VFR through the period with lightening westerly to northwesterly
flow overnight. Winds will pick up again out of the northeast by
afternoon along the east coast terminals while APF remains
generally northwesterly to northerly today. Some gusts to around
20 kts are possible on Sunday. Wind should become lighter again
after sunset.

BEACH FORECAST...
There is a high risk of rip currents at the Gulf coast
beaches through this evening. Life threatening rip currents will pose
a hazard to swimmers. Heed the advice of lifeguards. Swimming is
not recommended.

FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure across the region with a cool and dry airmass.Winds
will be northwest today veering to northeasterly later this afternoon
for portions of east coast. Minimum relative humidity values will
approach critical threshold today in the low to mid 30s leading to
enhanced fire weather conditions. However, wind critical thresholds
are not expected to be met
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  80  62  81  66 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  79  65  80  68 /   0   0   0   0
Miami            81  64  81  67 /   0   0   0   0
Naples           77  58  82  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ069.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

UPDATE...34/SPM










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