Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 281033
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
535 AM EST Tue Jan 28 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Seasonable temperatures will dominate the Eastern Carolinas for
much of this work week. Another quick moving system will bring a
few showers early Thursday followed by a stronger system and
better chance of rain later in the period.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Dry and quiet wx expected through the near term period as high
pressure builds into the area from the W. Not much in the way of
cloud cover today/tonight, as the entire column will be quite dry.
Exception is Wed, when moisture increases around 700-500 mb ahead of
a mid-level shortwave trough. Better moisture and lift will hold off
until after the daytime period, so just advertising a dry forecast
with increasing clouds. Temps will be near normal...highs mainly in
the mid 50s both days, with lows tonight in the low/mid 30s.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A quick moving mid level system will bring a chance of showers
to the area for the short term period. The track is somewhat to
the south and the higher pops reside in our South Carolina
counties. No thunder is anticipated in our area with the system
as well. Lows Thursday morning will be muted somewhat with the
moisture in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Some insolation Thursday
will match odds with modest cold air advection with highs in
the 50s. Finally Friday morning will see middle 30s or so.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Still no model consensus on the system to affect the area late
week into the weekend. The GFS remains the slower of the
guidance with a later phasing system while the ECMWF is much
more progressive and weaker with the mid level trough. Really
the only changes made to this mornings forecast were to trim
back pops incrementally late Saturday as even the slower GFS is
a little faster. The temperature forecast remains intact with
near seasonal values for the most part with a fairly decent
warmup early next week without any significant cold air
advection in the system`s wake and prospects for a building
ridge.


&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Cold front has pushed offshore, with northerly winds expected today.
Some ground fog will quickly mix out shortly after sunrise. Winds
will diminish tonight, with some fog possible around 10Z.

Extended Outlook...Potential for MVFR conditions associated with
rain chances Wednesday night, as a disturbance moves eastward
across SC. More showers possible late Friday, otherwise VFR
expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Benign marine conditions continue through mid week as sfc high
pressure slowly builds in from the W. ~15 kt NW winds this morning
will drop to 5-10 kt this aftn, continuing at that magnitude tonight
into Wed while slowly veering to the NE. Seas 1-3 ft due to weak
wind waves and a 1 ft 10-11 second easterly swell.

A northeast flow will prevail across the waters for several
days or at least until a front moves across this weekend with a
westerly flow in its wake. Wind speeds aren`t overwhelming with
the highest values, on the upper end of a 10-15 knot range
occurring Thursday. Significant seas will be representative of
these wind fields with a range of 2-4 feet. There remains a
possibility of a window of small craft seas late in the period
depending on the evolution of the what is currently a low
confidence system.


&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...43
MARINE...MAS/SHK



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