Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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290
FXUS62 KILM 221126
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
342 AM EDT Thu Aug 22 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated showers and thunderstorms, will become more numerous
in the days ahead, as a front approaches the coast late week,
and stalls into the weekend. The increase in clouds and rain
chances, should bring cooler daytime temperatures this weekend
and early next week. A slow moving tropical low may move up
through the Southeast waters early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
No major changes to our thinking for today. Fairly typical
summertime pattern with Bermuda ridge axis to our south and Piedmont
trough just inland from the area. Should see another round of
showers/tstms during peak heating this aftn/early evening but not
expecting significant coverage with overall marginal forcing aloft.
That said kept PoPs in the typical summertime 25-35% variety. Severe
and flooding concerns overall low today. Temps will be a touch
above normal today in prefrontal regime, but expecting heat
indices to be below advisory level.

Some differences in the guidance regarding potential decaying
convective activity nearing the area tonight associated with short
wave energy rounding a slowly advancing mid level trough to our NW.
Given unfavorable diurnal timing have kept PoPs slight chance or
below for now. PoPs continue to slowly edge up into Fri as much
advertised frontal system approaches. Did trim back timing a bit
first part of the day though, with best chances away from the coast
after 18Z. Northern part of area is in a Marginal Risk for severe
from SPC as forcing slowly improves and plenty of instability during
peak heating. Temps a degree or two cooler on Fri than Thu as the
pattern begins evolving, which will put things right around normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Mid to upper trough will push a cold front down into the
Carolinas Fri night into Saturday. The upper level trough will
become stretched out from W to E leaving the front running
parallel to flow over the region as it stalls over the weekend.
At the same time, a wave or low will move up from Bahamas up
off of the Southeast coast through the latter half of the
weekend. This will lead to a more unsettled weather pattern with
greater shower and thunderstorm activity in a warm and moist
air mass into the weekend. Temps above normal to start Fri night
may end up below normal Sat as front drops down with increased
clouds and pcp. Lows Sat night should end up near normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Winds should shift around to the NE on Sunday as front drops
south through the Carolinas. The winds may increase depending on
development of low pressure as wave moves up from the the
Bahamas off the Southeast coast. Although the deep layer
moisture diminishes a bit into early next week, some uncertainty
exists in terms of clouds and pcp. Overall, expect better chance
of shwrs along and south of front with lingering clouds and pcp
possible to the north of front. ECMWF shows a better push of
lower dewpoint air in northerly flow early next week, but will
maintain higher cloud cover, chc of pcp and winds. This low
should track off to the N-NE leaving best chc of pcp near the
coast or off shore into the middle of next week. Temps should
spring back from near or below normal into Monday to above
normal Tues into Wed as air mass dries out some.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions to continue this forecast period. Expect scattered
clouds above between 4k and 5k ft with the diurnal heating mainly
beginning after 15 UTC. A scattered thunderstorm is possible, with
the better chance at the inland TAF sites of KFLO and KLBT. Winds
are expected to be from the southwest this afternoon around 10 knots
with higher values at the coastal sites of KILM, KCRE, and KMYR as a
sea-breeze develops and moves inland.

Extended...Mainly VFR thru Fri with brief MVFR/IFR periods each
day due to aftn/evening convection and fog and/or stratus
around daybreak. A cold front will drop south and stall across
the region late Fri thru Mon. This will lead to an increase in
tsra coverage with MVFR/IFR conditions possible at any time of
the day or night.

&&

.MARINE...
Summertime pattern on tap today and tomorrow, with mostly moderate
SW/SSW flow around offshore high pressure and inland
troughing/slowly approaching front. Seas will be 2 to 4 feet in a
mix of short period SSW waves from aforementioned local winds and
typical ~1-2ft SE swell at 8-10s. Both winds and seas will be
strongest in the afternoon/early evenings per usual.

Southwesterly flow around Bermuda High may increase slightly Fri
night ahead of a cold front, but overall expect winds becoming
lighter and more variable over the weekend as a front stalls
near or over the local waters. Winds should switch around to the
north by the latter half of the weekend as tropical wave/low
moves up from the Bahamas in the Southeast waters. Front pushes
a little farther south Sun with northeast flow around 10 kt
setting up. Seas around 3 ft Fri night drop closer to 2 ft Sat
and Sun before northeast flow pushes seas closer to 3 ft on Mon.
SW wind wave around 5 seconds weakens Sat as SE swell around 9
seconds becomes more dominant. Then shorter period NE wind wave
will increase Sun into Mon.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for SCZ054-056.
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ106-108.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...RH
MARINE...RGZ/MCW



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