Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 170249
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
949 PM EST Fri Nov 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Continental high pressure over the region will result in a clear
and seasonably cool weekend. A coastal trough will bring a few
light showers on Monday, followed by cooler air through midweek,
as Canadian high pressure drops southeast into the Carolinas.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 949 PM Friday...No remarkable changes to the forecast
with the mid evening updates, Frost Advisory layout for NE SC
remain unchanged as well.

As of 722 PM Friday...No significant edits were needed to the
forecast for the early evening updates, clear and crisp fall air
to settle in, densely, and winds have died at most inland
locals at 0z, setting the stage widespread 30s overnight under
mainly a clear dome. No changes to the `Frost Advisory`, had
considered adding Robeson and Bladen counties but dewpoint
depressions of 2-3 deg F at Min-T time around 36-ish will make
it difficult to attain `widespread` coverage, and as such will
retain `patchy` frost wording for the areas surrounding the
`Advisory` zones.

As of 310 PM, The center of high pressure will slide east
across the Ohio River Valley this evening and is forecast to
build over WV/VA Saturday morning. At the sfc, a trough will
remain along the east facing slopes of the Appalachians early
this evening, shifting to an inverted trough centered along the
Savannah River as high pressure increases across the mid-
Appalachians. Sfc winds are forecast to become very light to
calm late this evening as winds decouple and the broad inverted
trough develops across the Carolinas and NE GA. The combination
of mostly clear sky, light to calm winds, and dewpoints in the
upper 30s should result in prime radiational cooling conditions
this evening. Cooling should slow late tonight and during the
pre-dawn hours as dewpoint depressions close to within 1-2
degrees and llvl thicknesses recover slightly. Using a blend of
MOS, and considering the nearly saturated BL, I will indicate
low temperatures in the mid 30s inland to the low 40s along the
coast. Frost supporting conditions are forecast for most inland
areas, with less wind over the inland SC counties, resulting in
areas of frost. I will post a Frost Advisory for most of the
inland SC counties, with a mention of patchy frost for the rest
of the inland zones. Areas along the coast will see temperatures
slightly too warm to mention frost in the forecast. Otherwise,
the forecast will feature dry conditions with clear to mostly
clear conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 pm Friday...After a chilly start, under sunny skies
temperatures will recover into the lower/mid 60s Saturday
afternoon. Then, mostly clear skies and light winds will
support efficient radiational cooling Saturday night, allowing
temperatures to bottom out in the upper 30s/lower 40s inland
and 45-50 on the coast. A few pockets of frost could once again
develop well inland, but the potential for significant frost does
not appear as ideal as tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 PM Friday...High pressure will shift off the coast by
Sunday, and the airmass will moderate allowing temperatures
to recover into the mid/upper 60s most areas. A coastal trough
could support a few showers over coastal waters, but any
precipitation should remain away from land areas. Sunday night, the
coastal trough will sharpen and could push a few showers into
coastal counties. Otherwise, increased cloud cover will hold low
temps in the lower/mid 40s inland and in the 50s on the coast.
Monday, weak surface cyclogenesis along the coastal trough, perhaps
supported by a weak shortwave trough aloft, could translate to
isolated/scattered showers. latest forecast pushed slight chance
into coastal areas but per area consensus held PoPs below 15 percent
with no mention of showers inland. The, high pressure and cooler
temperatures should prevail through Thursday, before low pressure
brings the next chance for rain to the area late this week.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 00Z... Clear skies and VFR will continue throughout the
forecast period. Winds will diminish overnight as a surface high
over the Ohio Valley region builds and pushes eastward. At this
time, no fog expected despite strong radiational cooling and calm
winds. Dry low-levels should keep fog potential near zero. Clear
skies on Sat other than some high Ci developing during the afternoon.

Extended Outlook...VFR Sat/Sun and possible MVFR Mon with an
approaching disturbance off the coast. VFR Tue/Wed.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Tonight: High pressure will spread across the marine zones through
the overnight hours. North-northwest winds will continue around 10
kts, a little lighter near shore. Wave heights are expected to range
between 2-3 ft across the near shore waters, with 4 ft seas around
10 NM off the NC coast.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Friday...A relatively weak pressure pattern between
high pressure centered north of the waters and a coastal trough
expected to develop Sunday will maintain northeast winds and
associated seas well below Small Craft Advisory levels.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 PM Friday...Weak low pressure will push offshore early
next week, and high pressure will build from the north.
As a result, offshore winds 10-15 knots with gusts as high as 20
knots will turn toward the north/northeast late this period.
Combined seas will build to 2 to 4 feet and will include a 9-10
second period swell from the east-southeast.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM EST Saturday for SCZ017-023-
     024-032-033-039.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Colby
NEAR TERM...CHS/Colby
SHORT TERM...CHS
LONG TERM...CHS
AVIATION...21



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