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000
FXUS61 KILN 190033
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
833 PM EDT Wed Jul 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will shift east of the region tonight into
Thursday. An area of low pressure will bring unsettled weather
across the region for Friday into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Cumulus clouds dissipating with only thin high clouds streaming
in from disturbance currently over the northern plains. High
pressure firmly ahold of area with northwest flow still
dominating. This will yield one more night of cool temperatures
with low RH conditions. Made only very slight temperature
adjustments mainly in the northern forecast area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Continued dry conditions are expected during the day on
Thursday. There will be an increase in clouds Thursday night. Showers
and thunderstorms will begin to move into the region at the end
of the short term as an area of low pressure approaches the
region. Temperatures will be slightly warmer on Thursday with
high temperatures generally in the middle 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mid level short wave energy is forecast to push east across the mid
Ohio Valley Friday morning. This will likely be associated with an
MCS as suggested by several of the CAMs, moving east into our area
through the morning hours. Given the time of day, would expect this
to be in a weakening state as it moves across our area. Exactly how
this morning MCS plays out could affect how well we destabilize
through the afternoon. The general consensus though is for good
instability to develop off to our southwest,possibly nosing up into
mainly southwest portions of our fa through late afternoon into
early evening. This will be accompanied by some stronger short wave
energy rotating around an upper level low dropping down across the
western Great Lakes. This should allow for additional thunderstorm
development from mid to late afternoon and into the evening hours.
While the better forcing looks to remain to our southwest, wind
fields/instability across our area will likely still be strong
enough to support at least a lower end threat for severe storms. The
main threat would be damaging winds, with the best chance for this
being across our southwest, closest to the better forcing and
instability.

The upper level low will then drift slowly south across the mid Ohio
Valley over the weekend and into early next week. This will keep a
chance of showers and thunderstorms going Saturday and Sunday and
possibly into Monday. Would expect this to at least have some
diurnal component to it and will generally have likely pops during
the afternoon and evening hours Saturday and Sunday, trimming back
to chance later in the night and into the morning hours. For Monday
will then just linger some lower chance pops. Weak mid level ridging
will try to build into the area through mid week which should allow
for a decreasing chance for precipitation.

The upper level low will keep temperatures slightly below normal
through the weekend with highs Saturday and Sunday in the upper 70s
to around 80. We should then see a gradual warming trend with highs
back into the low to mid 80s through mid week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure dominating and dry low levels lingering through
much of TAF period will result in just a few VFR cumulus again
during diurnal period from about 15-23z. No BR expected
overnight with the very dry low levels. Winds slackening to less
than 05kts overnight, then pivoting to the southeast.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible at times from Friday through
Sunday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Novak
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...Novak
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...JDR