Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 151433 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 933 AM EST Sat Dec 15 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A large, slow moving low pressure system will move from the Tennessee Valley into the Southern Appalachians this weekend. Widespread rain and mild conditions are expected into tonight. The rain will taper off early Sunday as the low moves off to the east coast. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Frontogenetic band will continue to slowly lift across the forecast area. Looks like forcing may decrease a bit later so band may have some breaks in it by the time it reaches the northern part of the forecast area. Cannot rule out some ponding of water or even minor flooding generally across the Tri-State where greater amounts have already occurred with additional 1/2 to 1 inch possible. Not expecting much movement in temperatures through the day. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... Large mid level low to track northeast through the TN Vly tonight and east into the Delmarva region Sunday. As the mid level low approaches - elongated surface low to pivot thru the Ohio Valley tonight. Favorable moisture and forcing will continue into this evening with the potential for localized flooding continuing. As the system pushes off to the east, rain will begin to taper off from west to east late tonight into early Sunday. Expect considerable cloudiness through the night with lows from the mid/upper 30s northwest to the mid 40s southeast. Northwest flow develops on Sunday with a good deal of clouds early. Forecast soundings show moisture becoming more shallow as the day wears on. Therefore, expect a decrease in clouds Sunday afternoon. Sundays highs to range from the mid 40s northwest to the upper 40s southeast. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... An upper ridge will travel from the Great Plains Monday to the Great Lakes Tuesday and then to the East Coast on Wednesday. Surface high pressure forming under the confluent northwest flow ahead the upper ridge will push across the Ohio Valley, resulting in dry weather conditions in the subsident anticyclonic circulation around the high. An upper trough will be approaching on Thursday. As the upper trough deepens and a closed upper low and surface low develop, moisture and lift will increase rather dramatically, producing the likelihood for showers by Thursday night, with snow possibly mixing in Friday as colder air filters in toward the end of the event. Temperatures will start near normal Monday and Tuesday, with highs averaging 40. Warm advection on a southerly flow will nudge readings up to the 40s and low 50s by Thursday, before a retreat back to the low 40s on Friday. && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Moisture to continue to increase ahead of surface and mid level low slowly approaching from the TN Vly. Ceilings to drop down thru MVFR into the IFR category from south to north with widespread rain. MVFR visibility restrictions will also develop with the rain. In favorable region of lift and moisture, widespread rain and low clouds are expected to remain across the TAFs through the day. As the low moves into the Ohio Valley tonight - low ceilings to continue and lower with low IFR conditions expected. Rain will begin to diminish in coverage from the west late tonight. Northeast winds at 10 to 15 knots will gust up to 25 kts this morning and then back to the north around 10 kts by evening and then northwest by Sunday morning. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR conditions will be possible at times through Sunday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...Coniglio AVIATION...AR

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