Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 211327 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 927 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will provide dry weather into the weekend. A slow-moving low pressure system will bring a chance of precipitation into the Ohio Valley early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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A weakening mid level low will lift very slowly north across Illinois through this afternoon. Any pcpn associated with this should remain off to our west. However, some mid and high level clouds associated with the low will spill into mainly our western areas at times today. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... Aforementioned mid level low will continue to weaken and shear tonight into Friday while a coastal low begins to develop off the southeast U.S. coast. Our area will remain in weak ridging aloft along with a surface ridge extending west from New England. This will result in less clouds over time. Lows 55 to 60 will warm into the upper 70s to the lower 80s once again. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Period begins under high pressure, providing dry weather Friday night into Sunday. Unsettled conditions may arrive starting Sunday afternoon when there will be a slight chance of showers in far western locations ahead of an upper low advancing slowly from the west. Shower chances then spread east across the area through the remainder of the long term, even as the upper low weakens when it reaches Indiana. A few thunderstorms may occur Wednesday afternoon under marginal instability. As we enter astronomical autumn (249 am Saturday), temperatures are likely to stay above normal through much of the period. Highs are forecast to generally range in the mid and upper 70s Saturday through Monday, slipping to the near normal low and mid 70s Tuesday and Wednesday due to thickening clouds and possible precipitation. && .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... For today, mid level low to our west will slowly shear with time while weak mid level ridging remains over our area. Just some mid and high level clouds are expected. Winds from the east/southeast between 5 and 8 knots will become more east toward 00Z around 5 knots. For tonight, the system to the west will continue to shear and weaken. Clouds will thin overnight. Some local river fog will be possible at KLUK. Winds will be from the east around 5 knots. OUTLOOK...No significant weather is expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hickman NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...Hickman LONG TERM...Coniglio AVIATION...Hickman

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