Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 251318 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 918 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2022 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will move off to the east today as more humid air begins to move northward. A cold front will approach the region tonight, then move southeast through the region Sunday into Sunday night. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to accompany this system. High pressure will build back into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley for the beginning of the workweek, offering cooler and drier conditions. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Convection off to our northwest will continue to weaken as it moves east into a less favorable environment. However, debris cloudiness from this will continue to spill eastward into our area as we head into this afternoon. This could help limit temperatures a bit, especially across our northwest. In return flow across the area though, we should still see highs into the upper 80s to lower 90s. Some better lower level moisture will push up into our southern areas through this afternoon, leading to some increasing instability. This may be enough for some isolated thunderstorm development toward mid afternoon for areas along and south of the Ohio River.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... For tonight, diurnal isolated convection across our south/southeast should wane by sunset. Aforementioned cold front will continue its movement east. There seems to be a lack of forcing overnight for maintaining convection to our west, so will only allow for a low chance of showers/storms across the northern/western zones. Clouds will increase. It will be warmer and more humid with lows in the upper 60s to the lower 70s. For Sunday into Sunday night, the cold front is expected to move east/southeast through the region. This system is being pushed along by a digging mid level trough into the Great Lakes and southeast Canada. Upper support over the area seems to be weak. However, ample moisture is forecast ahead of the front. With enough breaks in the day, combined with weak low level forcing, convective allowing models indicate the likelihood for showers and thunderstorms, especially along and ahead of the front during the afternoon and evening hours. Although overall shear will be weak, MLCAPEs in the 1500-2000 J/kg range will be enough fuel for thunderstorm development. The main hazardous threats appear to be wind (DCAPEs approaching 700 J/kg) and heavy rainfall (pwats of 2"+) as mid level lapse rates remain poor for large hail. Will continue to mention the possibility for strong to marginally severe thunderstorm winds along with localized flooding. Later Sunday night, pcpn will come to an end as the front pushes away, allowing for cooler and drier air to filter into the region. It will be warm and humid on Sunday with highs in the mid and upper 80s. Lows Sunday night will fall back into the upper 50s to the lower 60s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... All indications are that a considerably drier and cooler air mass moves in heading into early next week following the cold front. A longwave trough pushing into eastern Canada noses southward into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley ushering in a strong surface high pressure. SPC sounding climatology shows that forecast 850 mb temperatures (7-8C) and PWAT values (~0.50") will both be well below seasonal normals. These air mass characteristics provide comfortable conditions both Monday and Tuesday with temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s along with low humidity. Surface high pressure weakens and shifts eastward on Wednesday as a secondary shortwave trough digs into the Great Lakes. The considerably dry air mass remains in place limiting the potential for precipitation to reach far enough south to impact the local forecast area. The high pressure shifting to the east will allow for increasing temperatures Wednesday and into Thursday, perhaps even into the lower 90s by Thursday. Humidity levels also gradually increase Wednesday and Thursday as a pool of moisture moves in from the north associated with the weakening cold front. The first chance for rain arrives late Thursday into Friday as westerly upper level flow and the associated embedded shortwaves advance far enough southward to enhance synoptic lift. At this time, boundary layer moisture doesn`t appear too significant, yet still enough to yield 1000-2000 J/kg. Given the subtle nature of the forcing, details on severe weather threats and timing are still quite low. Will stick with chance thunderstorms for Friday and Saturday as the cold front moves through the Ohio Valley over the course of the two days. Examining ensemble solutions shows a range of speed differences with some possibility for the front to be through the area by the holiday weekend. && .AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... For today, a mid level ridge axis will extend across the Ohio Valley. Low level flow will begin to veer to a southerly direction, allowing low level moisture to creep northward. This should bring some afternoon cumulus clouds to KCVG/KLUK/KILN. Deeper moisture and diurnal instability should keep any isolated convection to the southeast of the terminals toward south central Ohio and northeast Kentucky. Upstream convection will result in mid and high clouds spilling southeast across the region. For tonight, considerable mid and high clouds are expected. The mid level ridge axis will flatten as a cold front makes in roads into our region from the west. There could be a shower/storm near or after midnight closer to the northern terminals. Too low of a threat at this time to mention. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms likely Sunday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hickman NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...Hickman LONG TERM...McGinnis AVIATION...Hickman

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