National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KILN 230259
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1059 PM EDT Tue Jun 22 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will offer mostly dry conditions through Thursday.
Chances for showers and a few storms will return late Thursday
night into Friday, with a wet and more active pattern expected
through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Thin band of cirrus will move east and across the region early
in the period. Calm to light and variable winds will become more
southerly towards daybreak and pick up slightly in the morning.

Dry air in place will limit any widespread fog development,
though some patchy shallow fog may form in river valleys. Lows
will drop to within a few degrees of 50.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The center of the surface high pressure system will have
already moved east of our counties by 12z Wednesday, leading to
a return in south- southeasterly flow at the surface. While a
notable change in the airmass will not occur until Thursday, a
slight uptick in dewpoints of about 5-10 degrees from Tuesday`s
temperatures is expected. Nonetheless, with dewpoints near 50,
outdoor conditions will remain very pleasant.

A shot of PVA across portions of northern Indiana and NW Ohio
will provide thicker cloud coverage north of I-70, especially
towards Indiana and west-central Ohio. Additionally, cannot rule
out a few light showers out of the mid-level clouds that develop,
so have introduced a 20% PoP in our far northwest counties for
Wednesday morning/afternoon.

Skies become mostly clear again Wednesday night, but the
moisture advection will limit temperatures from dropping too
much.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
We should be able to squeeze out a dry day on Thursday. Return
southerly flow between a surface high to our east and a frontal
system well to the west will not only help boost temperatures back
to more summer levels but will also mark the beginning of a humid
pattern as well. Highs will warm into the mid 80s.

A warm, humid, and wetter pattern is poised to set up over the
region as we head into the weekend and into early next week. The
long wave pattern will feature upper level ridging building into the
western CONUS while an upper ridge remains in place off the East
Coast. This will result in a very slow-moving mid level trough from
the mid section of the U.S. into the western Great Lakes. At the
surface, a slow-moving cold front will be found, and it looks to
encroach our region early next week. In the meantime, showers and
thunderstorms will increase in probability into the weekend, with
Saturday and Sunday featuring the greatest chances. With pwats
approaching and perhaps exceeding 2 inches, the atmosphere will be
primed to produce locally heavy rainfall. The ECMWF and GFS
ensembles are placing the heaviest rain potential across Illinois and
Indiana with some of the higher amounts encroaching our eastern
Indiana/western Ohio/northern Kentucky CWA. Thus, we will have to
monitor trends into the weekend to see if flooding will become a
threat over parts of the area. As stated, it will be warm and humid
with highs in the lower to mid 80s and lows in the upper 60s to the
lower 70s. By early next week, the mid level trough is forecast to
elongated and remain fairly quasi-stationary. This will keep the
threat for shower/storms going in the moist south to southwest flow
with the highest chances being favored during the afternoon and
evening (diurnal cycle). Highs will be in the 80s and lows in the
60s.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Weakening cu field lingering over the northwestern third of CWA
will continue to dissipate this evening as some cirrus cross
east over the region. Northerly winds 6-8kt will turn south as
night falls and go slack at 3kt or less in most locations.
Enough dry air under the surface high will be in place so that
fog development should be limited to river valleys.

High clouds will skim the region from west to east and be more
favored north of the I-70 corridor.

.OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible on Friday and Saturday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Clark
NEAR TERM...Franks
SHORT TERM...Clark
LONG TERM...Hickman
AVIATION...Franks