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000
FXUS61 KILN 040755
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
355 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will move into the area late this afternoon
bringing a chance of rain tonight into Sunday. High pressure
will settle north of the area Sunday afternoon bringing back a
brief period of dry conditions before rain chances return early
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Upper level ridge will continue to move east of the Ohio Valley.
In sequence with this, a weak surface low and front will also
advance eastward. Model RH panels are showing that mid and high
clouds will gradually overspread the region, especially during
the afternoon hours.

Front will make the Indiana/Ohio border by late afternoon, but
pcpn appears that it will be post frontal, so only the far west
will see a chance of showers.

Upped highs today a few degrees. The far nw counties will only
make the lower 60s, where the front reaches. To the southeast of
the front highs will make the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Front will finish pushing through the fa tonight, with
scattered showers behind it. As upper flow turns zonal the front
will stall out west to east just south of the area. Lows will
range in the 40s to around 50 from the northwest to southeast.

A surface high will build across the Great Lakes on Sunday. Any
lingering showers will dissipate from north to south on Sunday.
Clouds will linger across much of the area on Sunday, with the
exception being the northern counties where the building high
will bring drier air and some sunshine.

Temperatures will be cooler behind the front on Sunday, ranging
from the upper 50s for the northern half of the fa. In the lower
Scioto Valley into northeast KY highs will still reach the upper
60s.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Expect periods of unsettled weather due to a couple of low pressure
systems traveling across Southern Canada and the Northern USA.

Monday will be dry to start with high pressure centered over the
Great Lakes. The threat for showers and a few thunderstorms begins
Monday afternoon when a batch of short wave energy and moisture are
forecast to interact with a developing warm front extending from
Canadian low pressure. The likelihood of showers and thunderstorms
will persist Tuesday and Wednesday as the low travels to New England
and drags a weak cold front through the Ohio Valley.

The next low pressure system is shown to develop and move quickly
ahead of a strengthening jet stream, allowing additional showers to
form on Thursday. A few showers may linger through Friday and
Saturday in the chilly cyclonic flow behind the low.

A rather warm first few days of the long term should be observed,
with highs reaching the 60s and 70s Monday through Wednesday. A
notable cooling trend is probable for the remainder of the period
under cold advection and reduced geopotential heights, with forecast
highs in the 50s and 60s Thursday, falling to the 40s and 50s for
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Even as H5 ridge works up the Ohio Valley, clouds are struggling
to work east into the region. Based on latest satellite loop,
backed off clouds for the overnight, keeping them few to
scattered. This increases the chance of fog a LUK this morning
as winds are forecast to turn to the southeast towards 12Z.
Added MVFR/IFR fog to LUK between 09-12Z.

Weak surface and cold front will move east up the Ohio Valley
after 12Z. Mid clouds will gradually create ceilings by
afternoon. Latest guidance is indicating that the pcpn will be
mainly post frontal, reducing the chance of thunder.

Precipitation chances reach the wrn tafs after 00Z, closer to
03Z. By this time ceilings will be approaching the lower end of
VFR.

In the extended portion of the CVG taf, showers will become more
scattered, so went with just VCSH. Ceilings are forecast to drop
to MVFR at the same time.


OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions are possible Saturday night into
Sunday. MVFR conditions and thunderstorms possible Monday and
Tuesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Franks/Sites
NEAR TERM...Sites
SHORT TERM...Sites
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...Sites