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000
FXUS61 KILN 221753
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
153 PM EDT Fri Mar 22 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level disturbance will bring shower activity to the
region today. An expansive area of high pressure will move into
the Ohio Valley tonight, providing dry conditions and warming
temperatures on Saturday and Sunday. Low pressure will move east
through the region on Sunday night and Monday, bringing rain to
the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
An upper level disturbance will move through today. Widespread
shower activity has already developed across northern portions
of the forecast area generally north of Interstate 70. The
greatest chance of precipitation today will move into central
Ohio and the Scioto Valley. There will be a mix of rain and
snow, however expect most of the precipitation to be primarily
rain.

Went close to the blend for temperatures today with high
temperatures in the 40s to around 50 around the Ohio River.

Winds have already started to pick up this morning and will
continue to do so for the afternoon hours. There are steep low
level lapse rates in place and decent low level flow. Due to
this expect some wind gusts around 35 mph today at times. Wind
gusts will begin to subside at the end of the near term, however
some wind gusts will still be possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Any showers are expected to be dissipated by sunset or a little
after, leaving dry conditions through the rest of the short
term forecast. With an area of surface high pressure moving in
from the upper midwest, and heights rising as a ridge builds
across the Mississippi Valley, conditions should begin warming
aloft heading into Saturday morning. This should lead to an
erosion of any leftover stratocumulus clouds, with generally
clear skies expected by Saturday morning. As the surface high
and upper ridge become established over the Ohio Valley on
Saturday afternoon, they will represent an extremely dry air
mass, with precipitable water values of under two tenths of an
inch.

These conditions will lead to very favorable radiational cooling
on Saturday morning, with min temps dropping well into the 20s,
and possibly close to 20 degrees in the northern sections of the
forecast area. However, plentiful sun and the dry air mass will
allow for a fairly strong warm-up by Saturday afternoon, with
max temps in the upper 40s to lower 50s -- a diurnal change of
about 25 degrees. It is interesting that the operational GFS is
above its various ensemble members for temperatures on Saturday,
but given the pattern, the higher numbers seem like the better
option. Thus, this forecast is close to an operational GFS/NAM
blend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Surface high pressure will move off to the east Saturday night.
Meanwhile, a mid level ridge axis aloft will dampen and shift
east as well. A weakening disturbance in the flow from the west
will bring an increase in clouds. Lows will range from the upper
20s east to the lower 30s elsewhere.

For Sunday into Sunday night, clouds will continue to
increase/thicken as an upper level closed low over the central
Plains opens up as a s/wv and gets nudged east by a large scale
mid level trough digging southward into the Great Lakes and New
England. Weak low pressure with the s/wv will combined with a
southward moving cold front to bring an increasing chance of
showers through the period, with categorical PoPs expected all
locations by Sunday night. Highs on Sunday will range from the
lower 50s northwest to the lower 60s southeast. Lows Sunday
night will range from the upper 30s north to the upper 40s
south.

On Monday, the weak low and cold front will continue to push
southeast. This will allow pcpn to taper off from the north
during the day as drier air filters in. Some clearing could
occur in the northern sections late in the day. Winds will be
from the northeast and gusty across the north/west between 20
and 30 mph. It will be cooler with highs ranging from the lower
40s north to the lower 50s south.

For Monday night into Tuesday, a large area of surface high
pressure will build south into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.
Skies will clear Monday night with sunny skies expected on
Tuesday. Despite the sunshine, temperatures will be below normal
for late March as cooler air moves into the region. After lows
in the 20s, highs will range from the lower 40s north to the
mid/upper 40s south.

For Tuesday night into Wednesday, although the center of the
sprawling high will move east to New England then eventually off
the New England coast, it will still extend westward into the
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. After a cold start in the 20s on
Wednesday morning, temperatures will begin to moderate with
plenty of sunshine Wednesday. Highs Wednesday will range from
near 50 north to the mid/upper 50s south.

A mid level ridge axis will move from the Plains to the
Appalachian region Wednesday night into Thursday. At the same
time, surface high pressure will continue to move slowly off the
New England coast while a frontal system slowly moves east
across the mid section of the U.S. This pattern will allow
clouds to increase on Thursday. Increasing southerly flow
between the two aforementioned systems will allow temperatures
to warm into the 60s all locations.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR and VFR cigs will be around through the afternoon and early
evening hours. As an upper level disturbance moves through there
will be some shower activity around KCMH and KLCK and therefore
have a VCSH in there. Winds will be gusty through this time
period as well.

Later this evening cloud cover will decrease, winds will begin
to subside, and precipitation will taper off. VFR conditions
are then expected for the remainder of the TAF period.

OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions are possible on Sunday night and
Monday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hatzos
NEAR TERM...Novak
SHORT TERM...Hatzos
LONG TERM...Hickman
AVIATION...Novak