Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 190033 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 833 PM EDT Wed Jul 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will shift east of the region tonight into Thursday. An area of low pressure will bring unsettled weather across the region for Friday into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Cumulus clouds dissipating with only thin high clouds streaming in from disturbance currently over the northern plains. High pressure firmly ahold of area with northwest flow still dominating. This will yield one more night of cool temperatures with low RH conditions. Made only very slight temperature adjustments mainly in the northern forecast area. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Continued dry conditions are expected during the day on Thursday. There will be an increase in clouds Thursday night. Showers and thunderstorms will begin to move into the region at the end of the short term as an area of low pressure approaches the region. Temperatures will be slightly warmer on Thursday with high temperatures generally in the middle 80s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Mid level short wave energy is forecast to push east across the mid Ohio Valley Friday morning. This will likely be associated with an MCS as suggested by several of the CAMs, moving east into our area through the morning hours. Given the time of day, would expect this to be in a weakening state as it moves across our area. Exactly how this morning MCS plays out could affect how well we destabilize through the afternoon. The general consensus though is for good instability to develop off to our southwest,possibly nosing up into mainly southwest portions of our fa through late afternoon into early evening. This will be accompanied by some stronger short wave energy rotating around an upper level low dropping down across the western Great Lakes. This should allow for additional thunderstorm development from mid to late afternoon and into the evening hours. While the better forcing looks to remain to our southwest, wind fields/instability across our area will likely still be strong enough to support at least a lower end threat for severe storms. The main threat would be damaging winds, with the best chance for this being across our southwest, closest to the better forcing and instability. The upper level low will then drift slowly south across the mid Ohio Valley over the weekend and into early next week. This will keep a chance of showers and thunderstorms going Saturday and Sunday and possibly into Monday. Would expect this to at least have some diurnal component to it and will generally have likely pops during the afternoon and evening hours Saturday and Sunday, trimming back to chance later in the night and into the morning hours. For Monday will then just linger some lower chance pops. Weak mid level ridging will try to build into the area through mid week which should allow for a decreasing chance for precipitation. The upper level low will keep temperatures slightly below normal through the weekend with highs Saturday and Sunday in the upper 70s to around 80. We should then see a gradual warming trend with highs back into the low to mid 80s through mid week. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure dominating and dry low levels lingering through much of TAF period will result in just a few VFR cumulus again during diurnal period from about 15-23z. No BR expected overnight with the very dry low levels. Winds slackening to less than 05kts overnight, then pivoting to the southeast. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible at times from Friday through Sunday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Novak NEAR TERM...JDR SHORT TERM...Novak LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...JDR is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.