-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
533
FXUS61 KILN 131019
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
619 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Periods of showers and storms are expected through the upcoming week,
particularly midweek and beyond. A seasonably warm and humid pattern
is likely to be maintained through the week as well. An active
pattern toward the end of the week may bring episodes of heavy rain
and flooding potential.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The S/W that provided the forcing for the numerous SHRA/TSRA on
Saturday continues to pull off to the E, but quite a bit of LL
moisture (as well as subtle lift) remains entrenched across the
region as the weak front crawls to the SE. This front will eventually
wash out in the area through the near term period, without much of a
push of drier air into the region.

With a still-amply saturated profile and some low-end elevated instby
being maintained, a stray SHRA/TSRA will remain possible through
daybreak, particularly near/SE of the I-71 corridor. And although
the coverage of SHRA/TSRA during the daytime will be far less than
was the case Saturday, do expect we will see some diurnally-driven
enhancement to the coverage once again by the afternoon. At this
juncture, it appears that the greatest coverage of daytime activity
will be across parts of central/south-central OH into NE KY (i.e.
near/SE of I-71), albeit still somewhat ISO in nature. But a low-
end PoP continues area-wide this afternoon.

Temps today will be seasonable, topping out in the mid to upper 80s
amidst dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Attention by this evening will turn to a large cluster of storms
migrating to the E across parts of MO/IL/IN. The trend in the
guidance over the past 24-48 hours for the tonight/Monday time period
has been to a much wetter setup for us locally. The changes in some
of the data as it relates to influx of drier air (or lack thereof)
has been somewhat remarkable as both deterministic and ensemble data
has shown that above normal PWs are likely to be maintained across
the entire ILN FA through this period, suggesting that our much
anticipated (and needed) dry stretch won`t be as dry as was once
expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
The short term period is going to be a far more active one than was
expected only 1-2 days ago. The focus for tonight is going to be the
approach of a compact S/W, which will actually bring /increased/
moisture back N into the area amidst increased forcing and lift as
well. While the complex of TSRA that will be rolling through MO/IL/IN
this evening should weaken a bit with eastward extend (and loss of
diurnal instby/heat) around sunset, we are expecting that a
re-invigoration of intensity/coverage may occur locally tonight as
some LL convergence increases within an environment with skinny
(albeit sufficient) CAPE and PWs that will increase to 150%+ of
seasonal norms. The latest guidance suggests that TSRA will increase
in coverage near/past midnight initially across EC IN and the Miami
Valley into the Tri-State, moving very slowly off to the ENE through
the remainder of the night. This activity should be maximized near/N
of the OH Rvr and near/S of I-70, although certainly some SHRA/TSRA
will be possible just about anywhere. The main concern with tonight`s
storms will be very efficient/heavy rain, especially with some
slow/erratic storm motions. Some isolated spots may pick up another
1-2" as the clustering of storms crawls to the E toward daybreak and
beyond, which may create some localized flooding if this activity
moves over the same areas that received 1-2+" on Saturday.

Moreover, the above normal PWs will linger through the day on Monday.
Even as the primary S/W shifts off to the E early in the day, a
lingering disturbance stretched from ENE to WSW across srn parts of
the area should be sufficient to continue SCT SHRA/TSRA through the
afternoon, particularly S of I-70. Additional pockets of heavy rain
can be expected with steering-layer flow becoming increasingly weak.
This potential for heavy rain and isolated flooding during the
afternoon Monday should be maximized near/S of the OH Rvr, although
the potential for any severe storms appears quite low at this time.

Near normal temps are expected both tonight and Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
While there may have been a significant change in the near/short
term forecast for a wetter Sunday night into Monday, there does
still appear to be a brief window where drier air will work into the
region. Monday night into early Tuesday sees a lull in PoPs with
only slight chance wording currently forecast. That won`t last long
as a weak system moves northeastward into the lower Ohio Valley
Tuesday afternoon. The area will likely see a diurnal increase in
showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon, lingering into the
evening hours. Tuesday night, low-level flow increases at 850mb,
suggesting moisture advection overnight will allow for additional
showers and some thunderstorms, especially across eastern Indiana
and western Ohio closer to the LLJ.

Wednesday, above normal PWATs persist over the region with weak
shortwaves attempting to punch into the ridge established over the
Mid-Atlantic. The lack of a strong forcing mechanism means Wednesday
features another day where showers and thunderstorms increase in
coverage throughout the afternoon, continuing into the evening.
Given the broad area of deep moisture, locally heavy rainfall
leading to flooding begins to increase as a concern.

The threat for flooding increases moreso into Thursday as a front
descends out of the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley. Aloft, an
upper level jet streak supplies more robust broad scale vertical
lift, aiding in rainfall production within the persistent region of
above normal PWATs. Mean flow will be parallel to the cold front
boundary, providing additional support to the heavy rainfall
potential. Conditions unlikely to dry out Thursday night given the
favorable jet stream and lingering front.

Friday, the front may still be over the region, although there is
some question as to where it will be located. An additional
component to monitor will be another surge of moisture from the
south associated with some sort of loose Gulf Coast system that will
shift northward along the western edge of the ridge along the
southeast US coast. If the front is still over the local area, this
would add additional concerns for heavy rainfall for the third
straight day.

Into next weekend, confidence is very low on how the overall pattern
evolves. The latest 00Z GEFS has above normal PWATs trending
northward into the Ohio Valley, suggesting there is at least some
opportunity for the front to be lingering over the area. NBM
focusing the highest PoPs across the south makes sense given this
uncertainty.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Although a few ISO SHRA will be possible through the morning hours,
have maintained a dry fcst at the terminals for the first part of the
period. The main item of interest this morning will be the timing of
lifting/scattering of the MVFR/IFR CIGs through 16z. CIGs will
return to SCT/BKN VFR Cu area-wide by the afternoon.

There will again be some diurnally-driven SHRA/TSRA, but expect that
this will remain very ISO/spotty in nature and should be focused
primarily around KCMH/KLCK by early to mid afternoon. Have included a
PROB30 at these sites to account for this potential, although suppose
that any site may briefly be impacted by stray activity during the
daytime.

The focus by this evening through tonight will be the approach of a
large cluster of SHRA/TSRA, which will move into the local area after
00z. Although there should be a gradual weakening trend past sunset,
do think there will be some clusters of SHRA/TSRA to contend with,
particularly for wrn sites (KCVG/KLUK/KDAY/KILN), between about 00z-05z.
Some redevelopment of activity is expected thereafter within a
narrow W-E oriented corridor, which should line up near KILN/KDAY
after 05z through the remainder of the period. While the exact
locations/times of impacts are still uncertain, there is a signal for
at least SCT activity to be maintained for a few of the sites
through daybreak (and beyond) Monday. The main impacts are expected
to be sudden/brief reductions in VSBY.

Outside of SHRA/TSRA activity, conditions should remain VFR from 15z
through the remainder of the daytime. However, some MVFR CIGs may be
possible once again toward sunrise Monday.

WSW winds at 10kts or less will prevail through the period outside of
storm activity.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Monday and Wednesday through
Thursday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...McGinnis
AVIATION...KC