Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 230259 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1059 PM EDT Tue Jun 22 2021 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will offer mostly dry conditions through Thursday. Chances for showers and a few storms will return late Thursday night into Friday, with a wet and more active pattern expected through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Thin band of cirrus will move east and across the region early in the period. Calm to light and variable winds will become more southerly towards daybreak and pick up slightly in the morning. Dry air in place will limit any widespread fog development, though some patchy shallow fog may form in river valleys. Lows will drop to within a few degrees of 50.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... The center of the surface high pressure system will have already moved east of our counties by 12z Wednesday, leading to a return in south- southeasterly flow at the surface. While a notable change in the airmass will not occur until Thursday, a slight uptick in dewpoints of about 5-10 degrees from Tuesday`s temperatures is expected. Nonetheless, with dewpoints near 50, outdoor conditions will remain very pleasant. A shot of PVA across portions of northern Indiana and NW Ohio will provide thicker cloud coverage north of I-70, especially towards Indiana and west-central Ohio. Additionally, cannot rule out a few light showers out of the mid-level clouds that develop, so have introduced a 20% PoP in our far northwest counties for Wednesday morning/afternoon. Skies become mostly clear again Wednesday night, but the moisture advection will limit temperatures from dropping too much. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... We should be able to squeeze out a dry day on Thursday. Return southerly flow between a surface high to our east and a frontal system well to the west will not only help boost temperatures back to more summer levels but will also mark the beginning of a humid pattern as well. Highs will warm into the mid 80s. A warm, humid, and wetter pattern is poised to set up over the region as we head into the weekend and into early next week. The long wave pattern will feature upper level ridging building into the western CONUS while an upper ridge remains in place off the East Coast. This will result in a very slow-moving mid level trough from the mid section of the U.S. into the western Great Lakes. At the surface, a slow-moving cold front will be found, and it looks to encroach our region early next week. In the meantime, showers and thunderstorms will increase in probability into the weekend, with Saturday and Sunday featuring the greatest chances. With pwats approaching and perhaps exceeding 2 inches, the atmosphere will be primed to produce locally heavy rainfall. The ECMWF and GFS ensembles are placing the heaviest rain potential across Illinois and Indiana with some of the higher amounts encroaching our eastern Indiana/western Ohio/northern Kentucky CWA. Thus, we will have to monitor trends into the weekend to see if flooding will become a threat over parts of the area. As stated, it will be warm and humid with highs in the lower to mid 80s and lows in the upper 60s to the lower 70s. By early next week, the mid level trough is forecast to elongated and remain fairly quasi-stationary. This will keep the threat for shower/storms going in the moist south to southwest flow with the highest chances being favored during the afternoon and evening (diurnal cycle). Highs will be in the 80s and lows in the 60s. && .AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Weakening cu field lingering over the northwestern third of CWA will continue to dissipate this evening as some cirrus cross east over the region. Northerly winds 6-8kt will turn south as night falls and go slack at 3kt or less in most locations. Enough dry air under the surface high will be in place so that fog development should be limited to river valleys. High clouds will skim the region from west to east and be more favored north of the I-70 corridor. .OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible on Friday and Saturday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Clark NEAR TERM...Franks SHORT TERM...Clark LONG TERM...Hickman AVIATION...Franks

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