Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 311751 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 151 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2020 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will bring sunny but cool conditions today. A cold front will affect the region Sunday bringing scattered showers and a reinforcing shot of colder air. A large Canadian high pressure system will bring dry weather for next week, with much below normal temperatures expected early in the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Surface high pressure lead to clear skies light winds and cold temperatures overnight. Sub-freezing temperatures has led to the end of the frost/freeze program at all but ILN/s far southern counties. Surface high pressure to continue to build off to the east today. This will bring sunny skies and a low level southerly flow. After a cold, temperatures to rise to highs about 5 to 10 degrees below normal. Expect highs to range from the near 50 in the northeast to the upper 50s in nrn KY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... Saturday night will see the approach of a cold front. Winds will continue to back to the southwest, while increasing. Clouds will begin to increase after midnight. Scattered showers ahead of the front may work into West Central Ohio at the end of the night. Temperatures will bottom out earlier before beginning to rise towards morning. The front will push across the fa Sunday morning. Models have increased the precipitation associated with the front, so upped PoPs across the area. Put the highest PoPs in Central Ohio (50-60%). Tapered them down to upper 20s to lower 30s in southeast Indiana. With the early fropa, West Central Ohio will see falling temperatures. Farther south and east, highs will occur during the late morning, before falling during the afternoon. Winds will be on the increase during the afternoon in the cold advection. Gusts could reach 35 to 40 mph. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Surface high pressure in the Midwest will combine with northwest flow aloft behind an upper l/w trough crossing to the East Coast. By Tuesday afternoon, the high will settle over the CWA with upper level flow becoming less amplified and eventually zonal westerly by Wednesday. Surface return flow will have set up by then, and continue through the end of the week. Sunday night will be the coolest of the period with lows Monday morning in the upper 20s. Likewise, Monday will only see highs in the mid to upper 40s. Temperatures will rise a little each overnight period and rebound a bit stronger during the day given ample sunshine and a dry airmass. By Wednesday night, lows will have risen to the 40s, with highs rising to and topping out in the mid 60s. These temperatures will continue through the end of the forecast. Some increasing cloud cover will eventually put the kibosh on warming at the end of the forecast period. Temperatures for the last few days of the forecast will be about 10 degrees above normal, on both the highs and the lows. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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VFR conditions to persist today into this evening with only some increase in high level clouds this evening as sfc high pressure builds off to the east. Clouds will increase overnight ahead of an approaching cold front. A 45-50 kt southerly low level jet pivoting thru the area late tonight will lead to a period of LLWS. Expect a period of MVFR ceilings to develop late tonight into Sunday morning. A 2 to 3 hours window will exist early Sunday for scattered showers with the best coverage across the northern TAF sites. Clouds will lift to VFR from late morning into the early aftn from west to east. Southwest winds will shift to the west and then northwest Sunday morning with wind gusts up to 35 kts. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...Freeze Watch from Sunday evening through Monday morning for OHZ077. KY...Freeze Watch from Sunday evening through Monday morning for KYZ089>100. IN...Freeze Watch from Sunday evening through Monday morning for INZ073>075-080.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...KC/Sites NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...Sites LONG TERM...Franks AVIATION...AR

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