Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 040755 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 355 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2020 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will move into the area late this afternoon bringing a chance of rain tonight into Sunday. High pressure will settle north of the area Sunday afternoon bringing back a brief period of dry conditions before rain chances return early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Upper level ridge will continue to move east of the Ohio Valley. In sequence with this, a weak surface low and front will also advance eastward. Model RH panels are showing that mid and high clouds will gradually overspread the region, especially during the afternoon hours. Front will make the Indiana/Ohio border by late afternoon, but pcpn appears that it will be post frontal, so only the far west will see a chance of showers. Upped highs today a few degrees. The far nw counties will only make the lower 60s, where the front reaches. To the southeast of the front highs will make the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... Front will finish pushing through the fa tonight, with scattered showers behind it. As upper flow turns zonal the front will stall out west to east just south of the area. Lows will range in the 40s to around 50 from the northwest to southeast. A surface high will build across the Great Lakes on Sunday. Any lingering showers will dissipate from north to south on Sunday. Clouds will linger across much of the area on Sunday, with the exception being the northern counties where the building high will bring drier air and some sunshine. Temperatures will be cooler behind the front on Sunday, ranging from the upper 50s for the northern half of the fa. In the lower Scioto Valley into northeast KY highs will still reach the upper 60s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Expect periods of unsettled weather due to a couple of low pressure systems traveling across Southern Canada and the Northern USA. Monday will be dry to start with high pressure centered over the Great Lakes. The threat for showers and a few thunderstorms begins Monday afternoon when a batch of short wave energy and moisture are forecast to interact with a developing warm front extending from Canadian low pressure. The likelihood of showers and thunderstorms will persist Tuesday and Wednesday as the low travels to New England and drags a weak cold front through the Ohio Valley. The next low pressure system is shown to develop and move quickly ahead of a strengthening jet stream, allowing additional showers to form on Thursday. A few showers may linger through Friday and Saturday in the chilly cyclonic flow behind the low. A rather warm first few days of the long term should be observed, with highs reaching the 60s and 70s Monday through Wednesday. A notable cooling trend is probable for the remainder of the period under cold advection and reduced geopotential heights, with forecast highs in the 50s and 60s Thursday, falling to the 40s and 50s for Friday. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Even as H5 ridge works up the Ohio Valley, clouds are struggling to work east into the region. Based on latest satellite loop, backed off clouds for the overnight, keeping them few to scattered. This increases the chance of fog a LUK this morning as winds are forecast to turn to the southeast towards 12Z. Added MVFR/IFR fog to LUK between 09-12Z. Weak surface and cold front will move east up the Ohio Valley after 12Z. Mid clouds will gradually create ceilings by afternoon. Latest guidance is indicating that the pcpn will be mainly post frontal, reducing the chance of thunder. Precipitation chances reach the wrn tafs after 00Z, closer to 03Z. By this time ceilings will be approaching the lower end of VFR. In the extended portion of the CVG taf, showers will become more scattered, so went with just VCSH. Ceilings are forecast to drop to MVFR at the same time. OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions are possible Saturday night into Sunday. MVFR conditions and thunderstorms possible Monday and Tuesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Franks/Sites NEAR TERM...Sites SHORT TERM...Sites LONG TERM...Coniglio AVIATION...Sites

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