Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 031358 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 958 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front with scattered showers and storms will work through the region later today through early tonight, bringing much drier and cooler conditions to the area by midweek and beyond. High pressure will build into the region during this time period before warmer and more humid conditions slowly return this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... The showers that moved into the Tri-State this morning have pretty much dissipated. A fair bit of cloud cover remains from this, but expect it to thin enough for atmosphere to destabilize. Forcing will be weak in both low and mid levels, but still expect scattered to numerous showers develop with some thunderstorms, with better coverage northwest of I-71. Forecast highs look reasonable at this point. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... Will see scattered showers/storms linger into the evening for at least several hours as the better instby/low level convergence moves further into the heart of the area toward 00z. Beyond this, however, will see activity slowly wane except perhaps along/just ahead of the actual front itself. Will therefore keep chance PoPs near the I-71 corridor through at least the first part of the overnight period as isolated lingering activity drifts northeast through the region. Have kept temps up a bit for tonight with the expectation for fairly widespread cloud cover -- especially toward Tuesday morning on the backside of the front in the increasing northerly low level flow regime. Tuesday will end up being dry for most locations except perhaps for spots south/east of I-71 where some isolated afternoon showers may sprout during peak diurnal heating. However, guidance has trended a bit quicker with the infiltration of much drier low level air from the NW through the day, which will keep most spots dry as dewpoints/PWATs drop steadily through the day. This will signal the beginning of an extended period of cool/drier conditions overspreading the Ohio Valley from midweek through the end of the week. Highs on Tuesday will range from the mid 70s (west) to lower/mid 80s (east). && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Mid level trof over the Great Lakes to lift into southeast Canada with west-northwest flow developing over the Ohio Valley Tuesday night. Surface high pressure to nose into the area Tuesday night offering dry conditions and cooler temperatures. Drier air and light winds will allow lows Tuesday night to drop to readings ranging from the mid 50s northwest to the upper 50s southeast. As mid level ridge builds from the Rockies into the Plains a westerly flow will persist through mid week across the Ohio Valley. Large area of surface high pressure to build across the area offering a period of dry weather. In low level CAA pattern temperatures look to be a good 5 degrees below normal with highs on Wednesday from the lower 70s northwest to the lower 80 southeast. This broad surface high to build across the area through the end of the week into the weekend. This will provide dry weather and a gradual warming trend. Highs to warm from upper 70s to 85 on Thursday to the mid and upper 80s Saturday. In the southerly return flow moisture increases during the later half of the weekend. There continues to be model solutions spread and therefore some uncertainty regarding timing of potential pcpn with the approaching mid level shortwave. Have limited precipitation mention to chance category on Sunday. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Focus for the afternoon will turn to scattered disorganized shower and storm development -- focused initially near/west of the I-71 corridor toward western terminals of KCVG, KLUK, and KDAY and spreading more north/east by later in the afternoon. However, will see at least some isolated to scattered activity linger well into the evening as the weak frontal boundary/low level convergent axis drifts south/east through the area past 00z. Will maintain VCSH through at least 03z for even KDAY and perhaps a bit longer for the I-71 terminals. Either way, will see activity wane past midnight as instby/forcing weakens. However, seems plausible that we may see a few stray/isolated showers linger through the overnight period for a few spots. Coverage will be low enough as to maintain a dry fcst for the terminals for most of the overnight period, but certainly a -SHRA cannot be completely ruled out. Light southerly winds this morning will increase to about 7-8kts out of the southwest by this afternoon before going more westerly late in the day and eventually light/variable toward 06z. Will then see winds go more northerly/northwesterly toward 12z Tuesday and beyond. There are indications for MVFR /or lower/ CIGs building in from the NW toward 12z Tuesday, which would most likely impact KDAY, but very well may drift far enough SE to affect other sites as well toward daybreak and beyond. In fact, there are some indications for IFR CIGs and MVFR VSBYs at KDAY, with some MVFR VSBYs/CIGs elsewhere -- especially very late in the period. Still much time to figure out the specifics, but confidence is increasing in the lower CIG/VSBY potential locally Tuesday morning. OUTLOOK...IFR CIGs and MVFR VSBYs possible early Tuesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KC NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...KC

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