National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KILN 210317
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1017 PM EST Mon Jan 20 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will slowly build into the area through mid week.
Temperatures will gradually moderate and will rise above normal
by Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Cold air stratocu refuses to break up as low level moisture
remains trapped under inversion. Adjusted the forecast to
linger the clouds past midnight, then as high builds in a little
further, slowly scattered then out by 12Z.

Still feel that lows will reach 10 and 15 after clouds scatter.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will gradually build southeast into the Ohio
Valley on Tuesday. The ridge axis is expected to shift east
Tuesday night. There will be some FEW-SCT diurnally driven
cumulus clouds, so skies will be either mostly sunny or partly
cloudy. Highs will range from the upper 20s north to the lower
30s south.

Skies will become mainly clear Tuesday night. It will be
another cold night with lows generally in the mid teens with a
few location a little warmer or cooler from this majority range.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Upper level ridge and surface high pressure keep weather dry
through the first part of the long term period with temperatures
near climatological normals on Wednesday and above normals on
Thursday. During the day on Thursday, a deepening trough enters
the central US becoming the next area to watch for Friday and
into the weekend.

The trough slowly moves eastward and transitions into a closed
low over the Ohio Valley during the day on Friday. High
confidence remains that precipitation overspreads the area on
Friday with the forecast currently at 60-75% PoPs. Still
struggling to decipher the variety of precipitation types
starting Friday morning and moving into Saturday. Thermal
profiles suggest that a rain-snow mix is possible early Friday
before transitioning to all rain for the rest of the day. Due to
the strength and location of the low still rather variable from
run to run, confidence on the precipitation type forecast is
low at this time. Canadian, ECMWF, and GFS ensemble means hint
at light snow accumulations during the first half of Friday,
suggesting some solutions do lean toward a colder outcome. For
now, a warmer solution was chosen.

As the closed low moves further east, a second opportunity for
frozen precipitation arrives during the day on Saturday as
colder air attempts to transition rain into a rain-snow mix.
These details are strongly determined by the exact placement of
the low. Decided to keep most of the forecast liquid with wx
gradually transitioning to a rain-snow mix late in the day on
Saturday. Lingering snow showers and mostly conditions are
possible moving into the day on Sunday as the low pressure
continues to move away from the region.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Lingering northerly flow across the region continues to bring
cold air stratocu across the tafs. Flow off Lake Michigan has
brought MVFR ceilings back across DAY at the start of the
period. Latest satellite loop is suggesting that those clouds
could brush CVG/LUK in the first few hours of the taf period.
Over the eastern tafs, a fetch off the LP of MI is bringing
slightly drier air, allowing the clouds to be more scattered in
nature.

A surface high will gradually build southeast into the region
later tonight. This should finally end the flow off the lakes,
bringing an end to the MVFR ceilings. A few sc may linger
through the night.

Tuesday during the day, can`t rule out some scattered cu
developing with the lingering moisture. During the afternoon
some broken cirrus may work into Central OHio.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities likely Friday into
Saturday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hickman/Sites
NEAR TERM...Sites
SHORT TERM...Hickman
LONG TERM...McGinnis
AVIATION...Sites