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786
FXUS61 KILN 152351
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
651 PM EST Sat Dec 15 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will track across eastern Kentucky into the mid
Atlantic tonight into Sunday. A dry cold front will cross the
region on Monday. High pressure will then build in through mid
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Low pressure along the Kentucky-Tennessee border will move
northeast into West Virginia tonight. As this occurs, the band
of rain across the forecast area will continue to pivot but
weaken overnight. Meanwhile another area of rain immediately
north of the low will spread back into the area, affecting
primarily the eastern counties. Temperatures will be fairly
steady through the evening and then only slowly drop late
tonight on the back side of the low.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Low clouds will persist through the morning but then clear from
west to east in the afternoon as low pressure moves further
away from the area weak ridging pushes into the region. This
ridging will continue through Sunday night with mainly clear
skies. Temperatures will remain above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Reinforcing trough/front will move through on Monday, but with
limited moisture expect dry and sunny conditions with highs ranging
from the upper 30s across the north to mid 40s near the Ohio River
and across northern Kentucky.

Cooler air then filters in Monday night into Tuesday as high
pressure builds in from the west. The center of the anticyclone
looks to be parked overhead around 18Z Tuesday, then will shift east
promoting a return flow by Wednesday. Tuesday will be another sunny
day with temperatures near climo, then high clouds will start to
increase later Wednesday due to warm advection, and temperatures
will also rise above climo with Wednesday maxima from the mid 40s
north to around 50 south.

A digging/intensifying upper trough approaches on Tuesday, and
evolves into a potent upper low by the end of the week. This will
likely produce rain Thursday into Friday. As the storm exits, rain
may change over to snow late Friday or Friday night before ending.
In addition, if this storm wraps up then strong gusty winds may be
possible Friday into Saturday as temperatures Saturday drop back
down near climo.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Areas of rain will continue to slowly rotate across the area
into tonight as a surface low pressure system moves northeast
along the Ohio River. The I-71 corridor is currently in a lull
in the precipitation so will just allow for a vcsh through the
first few hours of the TAF period. It appears that the central
Ohio TAFs have the best chance for seeing additional pcpn later
this evening and into the overnight hours as the low continues
to lift northeast. Otherwise, expect IFR cigs to persist
through Sunday morning along with some possible MVFR vsbys
restrictions. Cigs should begin to improve as we head through
Sunday afternoon and some drier air works in from the west.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...BPP
AVIATION...JGL