Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 221753 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 153 PM EDT Fri Mar 22 2019 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level disturbance will bring shower activity to the region today. An expansive area of high pressure will move into the Ohio Valley tonight, providing dry conditions and warming temperatures on Saturday and Sunday. Low pressure will move east through the region on Sunday night and Monday, bringing rain to the area. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... An upper level disturbance will move through today. Widespread shower activity has already developed across northern portions of the forecast area generally north of Interstate 70. The greatest chance of precipitation today will move into central Ohio and the Scioto Valley. There will be a mix of rain and snow, however expect most of the precipitation to be primarily rain. Went close to the blend for temperatures today with high temperatures in the 40s to around 50 around the Ohio River. Winds have already started to pick up this morning and will continue to do so for the afternoon hours. There are steep low level lapse rates in place and decent low level flow. Due to this expect some wind gusts around 35 mph today at times. Wind gusts will begin to subside at the end of the near term, however some wind gusts will still be possible. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... Any showers are expected to be dissipated by sunset or a little after, leaving dry conditions through the rest of the short term forecast. With an area of surface high pressure moving in from the upper midwest, and heights rising as a ridge builds across the Mississippi Valley, conditions should begin warming aloft heading into Saturday morning. This should lead to an erosion of any leftover stratocumulus clouds, with generally clear skies expected by Saturday morning. As the surface high and upper ridge become established over the Ohio Valley on Saturday afternoon, they will represent an extremely dry air mass, with precipitable water values of under two tenths of an inch. These conditions will lead to very favorable radiational cooling on Saturday morning, with min temps dropping well into the 20s, and possibly close to 20 degrees in the northern sections of the forecast area. However, plentiful sun and the dry air mass will allow for a fairly strong warm-up by Saturday afternoon, with max temps in the upper 40s to lower 50s -- a diurnal change of about 25 degrees. It is interesting that the operational GFS is above its various ensemble members for temperatures on Saturday, but given the pattern, the higher numbers seem like the better option. Thus, this forecast is close to an operational GFS/NAM blend. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Surface high pressure will move off to the east Saturday night. Meanwhile, a mid level ridge axis aloft will dampen and shift east as well. A weakening disturbance in the flow from the west will bring an increase in clouds. Lows will range from the upper 20s east to the lower 30s elsewhere. For Sunday into Sunday night, clouds will continue to increase/thicken as an upper level closed low over the central Plains opens up as a s/wv and gets nudged east by a large scale mid level trough digging southward into the Great Lakes and New England. Weak low pressure with the s/wv will combined with a southward moving cold front to bring an increasing chance of showers through the period, with categorical PoPs expected all locations by Sunday night. Highs on Sunday will range from the lower 50s northwest to the lower 60s southeast. Lows Sunday night will range from the upper 30s north to the upper 40s south. On Monday, the weak low and cold front will continue to push southeast. This will allow pcpn to taper off from the north during the day as drier air filters in. Some clearing could occur in the northern sections late in the day. Winds will be from the northeast and gusty across the north/west between 20 and 30 mph. It will be cooler with highs ranging from the lower 40s north to the lower 50s south. For Monday night into Tuesday, a large area of surface high pressure will build south into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Skies will clear Monday night with sunny skies expected on Tuesday. Despite the sunshine, temperatures will be below normal for late March as cooler air moves into the region. After lows in the 20s, highs will range from the lower 40s north to the mid/upper 40s south. For Tuesday night into Wednesday, although the center of the sprawling high will move east to New England then eventually off the New England coast, it will still extend westward into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. After a cold start in the 20s on Wednesday morning, temperatures will begin to moderate with plenty of sunshine Wednesday. Highs Wednesday will range from near 50 north to the mid/upper 50s south. A mid level ridge axis will move from the Plains to the Appalachian region Wednesday night into Thursday. At the same time, surface high pressure will continue to move slowly off the New England coast while a frontal system slowly moves east across the mid section of the U.S. This pattern will allow clouds to increase on Thursday. Increasing southerly flow between the two aforementioned systems will allow temperatures to warm into the 60s all locations. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MVFR and VFR cigs will be around through the afternoon and early evening hours. As an upper level disturbance moves through there will be some shower activity around KCMH and KLCK and therefore have a VCSH in there. Winds will be gusty through this time period as well. Later this evening cloud cover will decrease, winds will begin to subside, and precipitation will taper off. VFR conditions are then expected for the remainder of the TAF period. OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions are possible on Sunday night and Monday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hatzos NEAR TERM...Novak SHORT TERM...Hatzos LONG TERM...Hickman AVIATION...Novak

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