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198
FXUS61 KILN 170607
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
107 AM EST Sun Nov 17 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend across the region today. An upper
level system will swing across the region Monday into Tuesday,
offering an increase in clouds. Temperatures will increase to
near normal levels by mid week as upper level ridging builds
into the Great Lakes and the Ohio Valley. The next good chance
for rain will occur Thursday ahead of an approaching frontal
system.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
High pressure will extend across the region tonight. Only a few
high clouds are expected. Winds will diminish overnight. This
should allow for at least some patchy river valley fog across
southern locations. Lows will generally fall into the lower to
mid 20s with perhaps some isolated upper teens possible in
the normally low-lying, sheltered locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Middle level flow backs southwesterly as a trof develops over
the MS VLY Sunday. Mid and high level clouds to increase,
especially during the afternoon ahead of this system. In WAA
pattern temperatures to warm up some but still remain around 5
degrees below normal. Sundays forecast highs to range from the
lower 40s northwest to the lower 50s southeast.

Mid level trof to track southeast into the Ohio Valley Sunday
night. Due to lack of moisture and forcing will only allow for
an increase in clouds. Forecast lows expected to be close to 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Throughout the day on Monday, a weak upper level shortwave
progresses through the Ohio Valley within a much broader
longwave trough over the eastern US. With moisture lacking and
overall forcing fairly weak, dry weather is anticipated for the
area. Another shortwave moves through on Tuesday, but similar to
Monday, the lack of strong lift and sufficient moisture leads
to a dry forecast, but extensive cloud cover keeps temperatures
below average.

For the middle of the week, an amplifying ridge stretches
northward into the Great Lakes, opening up a brief opportunity
for near normal temperatures for Wednesday to even above normal
on Thursday. The warm up is a result of a developing area of low
pressure that moves into the Great Lakes on Thursday. Moisture
and warm air advection promotes the development of showers
starting as soon as Thursday morning. There are some operation
model differences between the ECMWF/GFS, but EPS/GEFS means are
in better agreement with a fairly wet Thursday. Lingering
showers are possible Friday morning, but high pressure quickly
builds in from the west, leading to drier weather to end the
week.

Temperatures to start the period are below average with the
warm up across the middle of the week ushering in near to above
normal temperatures. Cold front moves through during the day on
Thursday with below normal temperatures to return on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Area of broken cirrus that affected the tafs during the evening
is shifting to the east and will will leave clear skies for the
rest of the night.

Light winds associated with high pressure are allowing some fog
development in the river valleys. LUK has already seen some
MVFR/IFR fog. Expect the fog to affect LUK through sunrise, with
some MVFR fog also possible at CVG and ILN.

Later today high clouds will increase from the west ahead of a
H5 trof. Surface winds will veer from east to south during the
day around 5 knots.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings possible Monday night into Tuesday. MVFR
ceilings and visibilities possible Thursday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hickman/AR/Sites
NEAR TERM...Hickman
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...McGinnis
AVIATION...Sites