National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KILN 311751
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
151 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring sunny but cool conditions today.
A cold front will affect the region Sunday bringing scattered
showers and a reinforcing shot of colder air. A large Canadian
high pressure system will bring dry weather for next week, with
much below normal temperatures expected early in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Surface high pressure lead to clear skies light winds and cold
temperatures overnight. Sub-freezing temperatures has led to the
end of the frost/freeze program at all but ILN/s far southern
counties. Surface high pressure to continue to build off to the
east today. This will bring sunny skies and a low level
southerly flow. After a cold, temperatures to rise to highs
about 5 to 10 degrees below normal. Expect highs to range from
the near 50 in the northeast to the upper 50s in nrn KY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Saturday night will see the approach of a cold front. Winds will
continue to back to the southwest, while increasing. Clouds
will begin to increase after midnight. Scattered showers ahead
of the front may work into West Central Ohio at the end of the
night. Temperatures will bottom out earlier before beginning to
rise towards morning.

The front will push across the fa Sunday morning. Models have
increased the precipitation associated with the front, so upped
PoPs across the area. Put the highest PoPs in Central Ohio
(50-60%). Tapered them down to upper 20s to lower 30s in
southeast Indiana.

With the early fropa, West Central Ohio will see falling
temperatures. Farther south and east, highs will occur during
the late morning, before falling during the afternoon.

Winds will be on the increase during the afternoon in the cold
advection. Gusts could reach 35 to 40 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Surface high pressure in the Midwest will combine with northwest
flow aloft behind an upper l/w trough crossing to the East Coast. By
Tuesday afternoon, the high will settle over the CWA with upper
level flow becoming less amplified and eventually zonal westerly by
Wednesday. Surface return flow will have set up by then, and
continue through the end of the week.

Sunday night will be the coolest of the period with lows Monday
morning in the upper 20s. Likewise, Monday will only see highs in
the mid to upper 40s. Temperatures will rise a little each overnight
period and rebound a bit stronger during the day given ample
sunshine and a dry airmass. By Wednesday night, lows will have risen
to the 40s, with highs rising to and topping out in the mid 60s.
These temperatures will continue through the end of the forecast.
Some increasing cloud cover will eventually put the kibosh on
warming at the end of the forecast period. Temperatures for the last
few days of the forecast will be about 10 degrees above normal, on
both the highs and the lows.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR conditions to persist today into this evening with only some
increase in high level clouds this evening as sfc high pressure
builds off to the east.

Clouds will increase overnight ahead of an approaching cold
front. A 45-50 kt southerly low level jet pivoting thru the
area late tonight will lead to a period of LLWS. Expect a
period of MVFR ceilings to develop late tonight into Sunday
morning. A 2 to 3 hours window will exist early Sunday for
scattered showers with the best coverage across the northern TAF
sites. Clouds will lift to VFR from late morning into the early
aftn from west to east.

Southwest winds will shift to the west and then northwest
Sunday morning with wind gusts up to 35 kts.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
OH...Freeze Watch from Sunday evening through Monday morning for
     OHZ077.
KY...Freeze Watch from Sunday evening through Monday morning for
     KYZ089>100.
IN...Freeze Watch from Sunday evening through Monday morning for
     INZ073>075-080.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KC/Sites
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...Sites
LONG TERM...Franks
AVIATION...AR