Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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198 FXUS61 KILN 170607 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 107 AM EST Sun Nov 17 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will extend across the region today. An upper level system will swing across the region Monday into Tuesday, offering an increase in clouds. Temperatures will increase to near normal levels by mid week as upper level ridging builds into the Great Lakes and the Ohio Valley. The next good chance for rain will occur Thursday ahead of an approaching frontal system. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... High pressure will extend across the region tonight. Only a few high clouds are expected. Winds will diminish overnight. This should allow for at least some patchy river valley fog across southern locations. Lows will generally fall into the lower to mid 20s with perhaps some isolated upper teens possible in the normally low-lying, sheltered locations. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Middle level flow backs southwesterly as a trof develops over the MS VLY Sunday. Mid and high level clouds to increase, especially during the afternoon ahead of this system. In WAA pattern temperatures to warm up some but still remain around 5 degrees below normal. Sundays forecast highs to range from the lower 40s northwest to the lower 50s southeast. Mid level trof to track southeast into the Ohio Valley Sunday night. Due to lack of moisture and forcing will only allow for an increase in clouds. Forecast lows expected to be close to 30. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Throughout the day on Monday, a weak upper level shortwave progresses through the Ohio Valley within a much broader longwave trough over the eastern US. With moisture lacking and overall forcing fairly weak, dry weather is anticipated for the area. Another shortwave moves through on Tuesday, but similar to Monday, the lack of strong lift and sufficient moisture leads to a dry forecast, but extensive cloud cover keeps temperatures below average. For the middle of the week, an amplifying ridge stretches northward into the Great Lakes, opening up a brief opportunity for near normal temperatures for Wednesday to even above normal on Thursday. The warm up is a result of a developing area of low pressure that moves into the Great Lakes on Thursday. Moisture and warm air advection promotes the development of showers starting as soon as Thursday morning. There are some operation model differences between the ECMWF/GFS, but EPS/GEFS means are in better agreement with a fairly wet Thursday. Lingering showers are possible Friday morning, but high pressure quickly builds in from the west, leading to drier weather to end the week. Temperatures to start the period are below average with the warm up across the middle of the week ushering in near to above normal temperatures. Cold front moves through during the day on Thursday with below normal temperatures to return on Friday. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Area of broken cirrus that affected the tafs during the evening is shifting to the east and will will leave clear skies for the rest of the night. Light winds associated with high pressure are allowing some fog development in the river valleys. LUK has already seen some MVFR/IFR fog. Expect the fog to affect LUK through sunrise, with some MVFR fog also possible at CVG and ILN. Later today high clouds will increase from the west ahead of a H5 trof. Surface winds will veer from east to south during the day around 5 knots. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings possible Monday night into Tuesday. MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Thursday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hickman/AR/Sites NEAR TERM...Hickman SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...McGinnis AVIATION...Sites

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