Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 210317 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1017 PM EST Mon Jan 20 2020 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will slowly build into the area through mid week. Temperatures will gradually moderate and will rise above normal by Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Cold air stratocu refuses to break up as low level moisture remains trapped under inversion. Adjusted the forecast to linger the clouds past midnight, then as high builds in a little further, slowly scattered then out by 12Z. Still feel that lows will reach 10 and 15 after clouds scatter. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will gradually build southeast into the Ohio Valley on Tuesday. The ridge axis is expected to shift east Tuesday night. There will be some FEW-SCT diurnally driven cumulus clouds, so skies will be either mostly sunny or partly cloudy. Highs will range from the upper 20s north to the lower 30s south. Skies will become mainly clear Tuesday night. It will be another cold night with lows generally in the mid teens with a few location a little warmer or cooler from this majority range. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Upper level ridge and surface high pressure keep weather dry through the first part of the long term period with temperatures near climatological normals on Wednesday and above normals on Thursday. During the day on Thursday, a deepening trough enters the central US becoming the next area to watch for Friday and into the weekend. The trough slowly moves eastward and transitions into a closed low over the Ohio Valley during the day on Friday. High confidence remains that precipitation overspreads the area on Friday with the forecast currently at 60-75% PoPs. Still struggling to decipher the variety of precipitation types starting Friday morning and moving into Saturday. Thermal profiles suggest that a rain-snow mix is possible early Friday before transitioning to all rain for the rest of the day. Due to the strength and location of the low still rather variable from run to run, confidence on the precipitation type forecast is low at this time. Canadian, ECMWF, and GFS ensemble means hint at light snow accumulations during the first half of Friday, suggesting some solutions do lean toward a colder outcome. For now, a warmer solution was chosen. As the closed low moves further east, a second opportunity for frozen precipitation arrives during the day on Saturday as colder air attempts to transition rain into a rain-snow mix. These details are strongly determined by the exact placement of the low. Decided to keep most of the forecast liquid with wx gradually transitioning to a rain-snow mix late in the day on Saturday. Lingering snow showers and mostly conditions are possible moving into the day on Sunday as the low pressure continues to move away from the region. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Lingering northerly flow across the region continues to bring cold air stratocu across the tafs. Flow off Lake Michigan has brought MVFR ceilings back across DAY at the start of the period. Latest satellite loop is suggesting that those clouds could brush CVG/LUK in the first few hours of the taf period. Over the eastern tafs, a fetch off the LP of MI is bringing slightly drier air, allowing the clouds to be more scattered in nature. A surface high will gradually build southeast into the region later tonight. This should finally end the flow off the lakes, bringing an end to the MVFR ceilings. A few sc may linger through the night. Tuesday during the day, can`t rule out some scattered cu developing with the lingering moisture. During the afternoon some broken cirrus may work into Central OHio. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities likely Friday into Saturday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hickman/Sites NEAR TERM...Sites SHORT TERM...Hickman LONG TERM...McGinnis AVIATION...Sites

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