Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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786 FXUS61 KILN 152351 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 651 PM EST Sat Dec 15 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will track across eastern Kentucky into the mid Atlantic tonight into Sunday. A dry cold front will cross the region on Monday. High pressure will then build in through mid week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... Low pressure along the Kentucky-Tennessee border will move northeast into West Virginia tonight. As this occurs, the band of rain across the forecast area will continue to pivot but weaken overnight. Meanwhile another area of rain immediately north of the low will spread back into the area, affecting primarily the eastern counties. Temperatures will be fairly steady through the evening and then only slowly drop late tonight on the back side of the low. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Low clouds will persist through the morning but then clear from west to east in the afternoon as low pressure moves further away from the area weak ridging pushes into the region. This ridging will continue through Sunday night with mainly clear skies. Temperatures will remain above normal. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Reinforcing trough/front will move through on Monday, but with limited moisture expect dry and sunny conditions with highs ranging from the upper 30s across the north to mid 40s near the Ohio River and across northern Kentucky. Cooler air then filters in Monday night into Tuesday as high pressure builds in from the west. The center of the anticyclone looks to be parked overhead around 18Z Tuesday, then will shift east promoting a return flow by Wednesday. Tuesday will be another sunny day with temperatures near climo, then high clouds will start to increase later Wednesday due to warm advection, and temperatures will also rise above climo with Wednesday maxima from the mid 40s north to around 50 south. A digging/intensifying upper trough approaches on Tuesday, and evolves into a potent upper low by the end of the week. This will likely produce rain Thursday into Friday. As the storm exits, rain may change over to snow late Friday or Friday night before ending. In addition, if this storm wraps up then strong gusty winds may be possible Friday into Saturday as temperatures Saturday drop back down near climo. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Areas of rain will continue to slowly rotate across the area into tonight as a surface low pressure system moves northeast along the Ohio River. The I-71 corridor is currently in a lull in the precipitation so will just allow for a vcsh through the first few hours of the TAF period. It appears that the central Ohio TAFs have the best chance for seeing additional pcpn later this evening and into the overnight hours as the low continues to lift northeast. Otherwise, expect IFR cigs to persist through Sunday morning along with some possible MVFR vsbys restrictions. Cigs should begin to improve as we head through Sunday afternoon and some drier air works in from the west. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...BPP AVIATION...JGL

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