Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

FXUS63 KILX 130845

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
345 AM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018

A strong 524 dm 500 mb low northeast of the Great Lakes will drop
down into the southern Great Lakes by early evening, as a
nor`easter off the mid Atlantic coast brings another winter storm
to New England today thru Wed morning. This will pivot a fairly
strong short wave currently just north of Lake Superior, southward
to along the IL/IN border by sunset. Steeping lapse rates as 850
mb temps fall to minus 8-12C by sunset over CWA (coldest in
eastern IL). This will likely develop broken stratocumulus clouds
over central and eastern parts of CWA during today, along with
isolated light snow showers and scattered flurries by afternoon
from Peoria to Effingham east. Southeast IL could also see
scattered sprinkles. Highs only in the upper 30s and lower 40s,
with mildest readings south of I-70 and from Springfield sw. Brisk
nw winds again today to factor in a wind chill.

Scattered flurries to diminish near the Indiana border during
early evening, then stratocumulus clouds and nw winds to decrease
from the west during tonight as 1036 mb Canadian high pressure
over ND settles southward into the Ozarks by dawn Wed. Colder lows
in the lower 20s expected overnight.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018

Strong upper level low moves over the Canadian Maritimes on Wed
while Canadian high pressure moves over the southern MS river
valley. This will bring mostly sunny skies Wed and increasing wsw
winds to start to modify temps. Highs Wed range from mid 40s over
eastern IL, to the lower 50s in west central IL. Fair skies
tonight as a weak front pushes southward through central IL during
tonight, and thru southeast IL early Thu morning. Front to pass
through dry with very limited moisture and lift. Lows Wed night in
the upper 20s and lower 30s, coolest from I-74 ne. Mostly sunny
skies on Thu with north winds less than 10 mph. Highs in the
upper 40s to near 50F from I-74 ne and 50-55F sw of I-74.

A Canadian high pressure settles into the western Great Lakes on
Friday, while low pressure emerges over western KS from southeast
CO. Models have focused light precipitation chances further sw
over sw third of CWA Thu night into Friday ahead of a warm front
near the MO/AR border, with a light mix possible overnight Thu
night into Fri morning. Cooler highs Fri in the low to mid 40s,
coolest from I-74 north. Low pressure tracks over eastern KS and
western MO during Fri night and likely spreads a band of rain
showers changing to snow showers ne across CWA during Fri night.
Could be some minor snow accumulations overnight Fri night of a
half inch or less with lows in the upper 20s and lower 30s.
Lingering light showers possible Sat morning, then dry Sat
afternoon thru Sunday evening as weak high pressure noses into IL
from the upper Midwest. Highs Sat in the upper 40s and lower 50s,
then milder 50s on Sunday.

Another storm system ejects out of the central Rockies and into
the central plains on Sunday night and ne toward IL on Monday.
This will likely bring another round of showers overnight Sunday
night and Monday, along with isolated thunderstorms especially sw
CWA. Highs Monday in the low to mid 50s, with upper 50s by


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1102 PM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018

VFR conditions are expected through this forecast period.
Scattered to occasionally broken VFR ceilings, which affect BMI
and CMI this evening, were slowly tracking off to our southeast.
Additional cirrus and a few mid level clouds were to our northwest
as another upper level wave over northern Minnesota slips south
into the region on Tue. Forecast soundings indicating some VFR
cigs possible again after 15z Tuesday with the initial cig bases
possibly near MVFR for a brief time. May see some scattered
flurries or sprinkles as the weak upper level wave moves through
in the afternoon with skies gradually clearing as we head into
tomorrow evening. Northwest winds will continue overnight at
around 10 kts, with northwest winds on Tuesday at 12 to 17 kts
with a few gusts up to 23 kts at times thru the afternoon before
quickly diminishing after 00z.




AVIATION...Smith is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.