Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 241536
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1036 AM CDT Thu May 24 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1030 AM CDT Thu May 24 2018

High pressure just off to our east late this morning will continue
to drift away from our area today. This should allow the higher
dew point air to our west to filter in this afternoon and tonight
setting the stage for a very warm and increasingly humid holiday
weekend. Late morning temperatures already around 80 degrees
headed for afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s. Another quiet
night across the area with early morning lows a bit warmer thanks
to a southerly breeze. Most areas should drop to between 60 and
65 degrees just before dawn on Friday. Made some minor tweaks to
the late morning temperature trends, otherwise, the rest of the
forecast is in good shape. No late morning ZFP update needed.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 158 AM CDT Thu May 24 2018

Upper level ridging extends up the Mississippi Valley into
Manitoba early this morning. This should start to flatten a bit
tonight as a wave over northern Montana starts to push east. With
not much change in air mass, temperatures will edge up a bit from
yesterday, with most areas in the mid to upper 80s. Can`t rule out
some 90 degree readings west of I-55, especially over the sandy
soils near the Illinois. High-resolution models indicate some
thunderstorm development to our west after midnight. Currently
think any impact from this would be Friday morning, so will
maintain a dry forecast for now.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 158 AM CDT Thu May 24 2018

Dominant feature of the next several days will be the summer-like
air mass. No real pushes of colder air are on tap, as an upper
ridge strengthens over the Plains this weekend. Incoming tropical
system from the Gulf will get trapped over the southeast U.S. and
contribute to the blockage of weather patterns. Thus, a slow
building of the heat and humidity will occur through the holiday
weekend. Most areas will be 90 or above for highs into the middle
of next week, with heat index values in the mid-upper 90s.

With the stagnant pattern in place, convective trends will
generally be diurnal. Most convection will be scattered, with any
meaningful impact from the tropical remnants holding off until the
end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 631 AM CDT Thu May 24 2018

Quiet aviation weather will prevail over the next 24 hours, under
high surface pressure. Weak pressure gradients will allow winds to
sustain below 10kt, with directions mainly from the SE.

Dry air in the upper levels will mean cloud cover will be
minimal, with mainly thin cirrus from time to time through 12z
Friday.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Shimon


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