Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 201317

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
817 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2019

Showers continue to slowly shift eastward out of central Illinois
this morning. Current radar shows light showers still in east
central Illinois, with an eastward progression, these should exit
the CWA by sunrise. Went ahead and cancelled the FFA earlier this
morning, as heavy rainfall ended throughout the area.

Behind this system, a return to normal weather patterns looks to
arrive today. A weak High pressure ridge will begin to develop
this afternoon, bringing drier air into the Midwest, along with
some clearing skies. Although not expecting complete clear skies,
some rays of sunshine will be possible later today. Another cool
day is in store, as temps will only climb back into the 70s, but a
warm up is coming this weekend.

Overnight, temps will fall back into the low 60s. This will allow
for a more spring-like night, as dewpoints will also drop to near

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2019

Finally getting back to a normalized weather setup where High/Low
pressure systems traverse the country and ridges and troughs
develop. Lately, it has been a west-east boundary line that waves
have been riding.

Looking ahead to Friday, the ridge will shoot NE, bringing the
next advancing system into the region. Low pressure will slide
into the northern Rockies today, this is the reason the ridge will
begin to shift east Friday. As this Low rotates in the mountains,
it will take a couple days before ejecting out and tracking
through Canada. This Low will become the driving force for weather
through the weekend. A wave system, will slide through the region
Friday afternoon/evening. This feature will form in the southern
Rockies, however it will get attached to the leading boundary of
the main Low. This will bring showers and thunderstorms to the
area, including the chance for strong to severe storms, as SPC has
raised a Slight Risk along and SW of a Galesburg to Olney line.
Main threats include damaging wind and hail, although brief
tornadoes cannot be ruled out.

This weekend will shift into a summer-like pattern, with hot and
humid conditions. Temperatures Saturday are forecast to climb into
the mid and upper 80s as WAA lifts through the region, and more
moisture gets lifted northward. This lift will bring dewpoints
into the 70s across central Illinois. Something that has not been
talked about much this year, Heat Index, will become mentioned
this weekend. Currently, Saturday`s Heat Index values will reach
the 90s, while Sunday will top out in the mid 80s to mid 90s
range. However, with all this heat and humidity arriving...showers
and thunderstorms will become more prevalent. The Low riding
through Canada will drive numerous rounds of showers and storms
through the Midwest Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. This will bring
another soaker to an already over-saturated region. Rain totals
for this weekend are forecast between 1.00-2.50 inches.

A cold front will finally slide through Tuesday, pushing all the
rain east. High pressure will slide into the southeast US during
mid-week. However, with a more summer-like pattern continuing next
week, this High will hold warmer temperatures and moisture around
the main circulation. This will bring the chance for off and on
showers through mid-week, however at this time the probability is
low enough that the mention is only of chance.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 817 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2019

Areas of early morning IFR cigs will erode from the west and lift
this morning, steadily improving to VFR by afternoon. Otherwise,
VFR conditions expected through the next 24 hours. Winds NW 08-14
kts with gusts over 20 kts this morning, then speeds/gusts
diminishing slowly late in the morning. Winds turning light and
variable after 01Z.




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