Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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610
FXUS63 KILX 070155
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
755 PM CST Fri Dec 6 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 328 PM CST Fri Dec 6 2019

After a chilly night with lows dipping into the lower to middle
20s across central Illinois, abundant sunshine will warm
temperatures well into the 40s on Saturday. The next chance for
rain will hold off until Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 753 PM CST Fri Dec 6 2019

Clear or mostly clear skies with only some patches of cirrus are
in place across central Illinois. Winds have dropped off under the
influence of high pressure building overhead with a number of
sites now reporting calm conditions.Temperatures should radiate
efficiently down to the dew points which are currently in the low
to mid 20s. No significant changes made to the forecast this
evening, though did adjust hourly trends to drop temperatures a
little faster.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST Fri Dec 6 2019

Clouds linger south of the I-70 corridor this afternoon, while
skies have become sunny across the remainder of central Illinois.
As a ridge of high pressure currently extending from Ontario to
the Southern Plains settles into the region, brisk northerly winds
will become light and variable after sunset. This will set the
stage for nearly ideal radiational cooling conditions through much
of the night. Some light SE return flow will develop across the
far W/NW KILX CWA toward dawn: however, it will do little to
impede cooling as overnight lows dip into the lower to middle 20s.
Once the high shifts further eastward, increasing southerly
boundary layer flow will help warmer air quickly return on
Saturday. With full sunshine and S/SE winds, have trended toward
the warmest numeric guidance...with highs climbing into the middle
to upper 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST Fri Dec 6 2019

A short-wave trough over Alaska and a deep upper low spinning off
the coast of northern California will phase over the northern
Rockies this weekend...then will dig into the Plains/Midwest early
next week. As this process unfolds, downstream ridging will push
temperatures back into the 50s across central Illinois on Sunday.
While some models such as the NAM hint at light QPF Sunday
afternoon, think moisture profiles will remain shallow enough to
prevent any precip development until evening at the earliest. Once
the airmass moistens sufficiently, showers will become widespread
late Sunday night into Monday as stronger forcing approaches from
the west.  Warm conditions will continue on Monday as highs once
again top 50 degrees: however, once a strong cold front passes,
temps will take a nosedive Monday night. 12z Dec 6 models continue
to indicate that most of the precip will end before the cold air
arrives, so only a brief period of very light snow is expected
Monday night.

The coldest conditions will arrive Tuesday into Wednesday when
highs remain in the 20s and overnight lows plunge into the single
digits and teens. The lowest wind-chills from 0 to -5 will occur
late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. After that, all signs
point to a rapid warm-up by the end of next week as the upper
trough lifts northeastward and a zonal flow pattern re-establishes
itself across the CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 507 PM CST Fri Dec 6 2019

Quiet weather is expected across central Illinois through Saturday
evening. High pressure will result in light and variable winds
overnight along with VFR conditions. South winds will resume
behind the ridge on Saturday with high clouds eventually moving
overhead.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Deubelbeiss
SYNOPSIS...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Deubelbeiss



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