Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 011104

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
504 AM CST Mon Mar 1 2021

Issued at 201 AM CST Mon Mar 1 2021

Dry conditions expected this week, with near normal to slightly
above normal temperatures.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 201 AM CST Mon Mar 1 2021

An upper trough centered over east-central Canada continues to
gradually shift east across the Great Lakes Region early this
morning as flow aloft becomes more northwesterly. Precipitation has
pushed out of the area, though it is still ongoing further south
and east along the system`s expansive cold front. Skies are
clearing nicely from the northwest with the clearing line expected
to push through southeast Illinois by around daybreak. Clearing
skies and brisk northwest winds has resulted in cooler
temperaturesthis evening. As of 2 AM temperatures were sitting
in the 20s to low 30s north of I-70, with values in the mid to
upper 30s south of there where clouds are still present.

A quiet day is on tap for today with highs warming into the upper
30s to 40s. A shortwave trough is expected to round the base of the
aforementioned upper trough, pushing a secondary cold front through
the region. This front is expected to move through central Illinois
dry, though scattered low to mid-level clouds noted further upstream
will spread into the area later this morning/afternoon mostly north
of I-70. Canadian high pressure sags southward later today,
centering itself over northern Illinois/Indiana around midnight.
This will lead to another cold night with lows in the upper teens
to 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 201 AM CST Mon Mar 1 2021

No notable chances for precipitation exist in the long term
period as flow aloft becomes more zonal on Tuesday while an upper
cutoff low passes to our south later Tuesday night. Southwest
flow will develop in the low levels and allow temperatures to
warm up some by the middle of the week as warmer air advects back
north. Highs Tuesday through the end of the week look to be warmer
than normal with values in the upper 40s to 50s.

Flow aloft becomes northwesterly by the end of the week as a ridge
amplifies over the Plains states. Surface high pressure from Canada
looks to build back in on Friday, which should steer another upper
wave south of the area, once again dodging precipitation chances.
Temperatures going into the weekend look to cool off some, but
will still be seasonable.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 504 AM CST Mon Mar 1 2021

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. An upper wave
will push a weak cold front through the area later today turning
winds northerly by late afternoon/early evening. Low to mid-level
clouds will accompany the front, though these should remain pretty
scattered. Surface high pressure spreads south tonight, allowing
winds to lighten up and veer to an east-southeast direction by
Tuesday morning.




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