Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 231744
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1244 PM CDT Sat Jun 23 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 913 AM CDT Sat Jun 23 2018

Cloudy skies are the rule across much of central Illinois this
morning...with some breaks in the overcast noted along/south of a
Taylorville to Paris line. Radar imagery is even showing some
areas of drizzle beneath the low overcast, which is being picked
up at several ob sites. Have observed drizzle at the NWS office
here in Lincoln as well. Based on current trends, have added
patchy drizzle to the forecast across the northern two-thirds of
the KILX CWA for the next couple of hours. Think drizzle will
dissipate as low ceilings slowly rise as the morning progresses.
After that, attention will turn to a trough axis/wind shift line
dropping southward through the region this afternoon. CAMs are
hinting at a few showers along this feature, particularly across
the north. Have adjusted PoPs to feature just slight chance PoPs
everywhere north of I-70 this afternoon. Have also dropped thunder
mention as instability is progged to be quite paltry. 14z/9am
temperatures are only in the middle to upper 60s, and with mostly
cloudy skies expected to persist all day, think previous forecast
highs were slightly too warm. Have therefore lowered highs by a
couple degrees...with readings remaining in the middle to upper
70s across the board.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT Sat Jun 23 2018

Stacked low was spinning just north of Indianapolis early this
morning, per water vapor imagery, and it should continue to weaken
as it moves further east into the Great Lakes region. A weak
surface boundary was analyzed across the northern third of the
forecast area, and should persist through the afternoon. As an
upper wave tracks east out of Kansas today, these two features
should be enough to trigger some isolated convection, during the
afternoon and early evening. Have added some 20% PoP`s over most
of the area this afternoon and early evening, slightly higher
closer to the boundary. With that boundary still around, the pesky
funnel cloud issue of the last few days may linger one more day.
Much of the rain should fade away with sunset. However, a few
showers may occur across the far southeast toward sunrise, as
another wave tracks east toward the Tennessee Valley.

With extensive cloud cover lingering today, temperatures will be
kept down a bit, though warmer than Friday in most areas. Have
gone close to 80 degrees over much of the CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT Sat Jun 23 2018

Upper low currently over northwest Montana will drop southeast
into the Black Hills this weekend. As a surface system develops
over the central Plains, the two lows will become stacked over
South Dakota early next week. Warmer and more humid air will be
drawn into our area in this pattern, with regular shower/storm
chances Sunday night into the middle of the week, before the
system finally ejects northeast. Precipitable water values get
back up into the soupy range (close to 2 inches), so the potential
for heavy rains with the storms will increase once again.

The heat will gradually build through the week, and 90s may be
back in the picture as early as Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sat Jun 23 2018

Ceilings are steadily improving across central Illinois early this
afternoon: however, MVFR will persist at KPIA/KBMI/KDEC for the
next couple of hours. Isolated showers will develop in advance of
a weak upper disturbance, although areal coverage will remain low
enough to keep predominant rain mention out of the TAF. Will
include VCSH through the afternoon into the early evening before
any showers quickly dissipate. Skies will remain mostly cloudy
through sunset, then will become mostly clear overnight into
Sunday morning. Winds will remain light through the entire period.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Barnes



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