Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 111054
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
554 AM CDT Tue May 11 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 312 AM CDT Tue May 11 2021

A modified Canadian air mass and abundant cloud cover will keep
temperatures below normal today. Temperatures will become warmer
Wednesday but with plenty of afternoon cumulus. Otherwise, dry
weather will persist through the rest of this week as afternoon
temperatures gradually moderate toward the 70s with each passing
day. The next best chance for widespread rainfall arrives this
weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT Tue May 11 2021

Some mid-level cloudiness will linger this morning across eastern
Illinois in response to confluent flow aloft. There could be a
brief period of sunshine today as the upper-level trough axis
pushes south of the Great Lakes and a ridge begins to build into
Central Illinois, but we are anticipating sunshine to be filtered
through much of the afternoon with the region placed in between a
pair of upper-level disturbances.

Temperatures will remain 10-15 degrees below normal with afternoon
highs struggling to reach 60 and overnight temperatures cooling
into the middle-to-upper 30s. Widespread frost seems likely
tonight across much of our outlook area as the center of surface
high pressure builds directly overhead, causing skies to clear and
winds to become light.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT Tue May 11 2021

Upper-level ridging and surface high pressure will work in tandem
to keep the pattern quiet through the remainder of the week.
Temperatures will exhibit a slow warming trend each day as the air
mass beneath the surface high continues to modify. By Saturday,
low-level flow will veer southerly as surface high pressure
departs eastward into the Mid-Atlantic region. It is by then that
daily temperatures are expected to break the 70s.

The next best chance for widespread rainfall will come later
Saturday into Sunday as shortwave energy rides atop an elongated
upper- level ridge. Global models offer little consistency beyond
this weekend, but there is semblance among the ensembles of a wet
and unsettled period extending into early next week as
temperatures warm near the seasonal normals. Meanwhile, the CPC
continues to suggest a warm and wet pattern for the back half of
May.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 541 AM CDT Tue May 11 2021

OVC/BKN mid-level clouds will persist through much of the TAF
period. VFR conditions with cigs between 5-10 kft are anticipated
as upper- level disturbances remain displaced far enough away from
the regional terminals. Skies will gradually become clear beyond
00z as the center of surface high pressure settles into central
Illinois.

Low-level winds will persist from the northeast today with
sustained speeds 5-10 kts and occasional gusts between 15-20 kts.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJA
SHORT TERM...MJA
LONG TERM...MJA
AVIATION...MJA


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