Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 260453

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1153 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Issued at 859 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Skies are mostly clear with only high clouds over the CWA. Winds
are also variable across the area and will remain that way the
remainder of the night. Current forecast has a good handle on
current weather and expected weather the remainder of the night.
Temps will fall as forecast and current forecast mid to upper 30s
over most of the CWA looks good. Forecast of low 40s in the
southeast and southwest looks fine as well. Therefore no update
planed at this time.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

A 560 dm 500 mb low over central KS will track southeast into nw
MS by sunrise Thu and to near Chattanooga TN by sunset Thu. This
system will keep its light rain shows sw/south of central and
southeast IL through tonight. However, broken to overcast mid/high
clouds cover CWA with cumulus clouds in southeast IL this
afternoon. Meanwhile ample sunshine just north of Knox, Stark and
Marshall counties. Latest models show these mid/high clouds
gradually being suppressed southward across CWA during tonight
and lingering longest over areas south of I-70. Temps currently in
the low to mid 60s over CWA with NNE winds 7-14 mph and few gusts
of 17-23 mph. Dewpoints ranged from 35-40F along and north of
I-74 to the lower 50s in southeast IL where the cumulus clouds
were. Drier dewpoints in the low to mid 30s were just north of CWA
over northern CWA and will be advecting into central IL into this
evening. Lows tonight of 35-40F over central IL and lower 40s
along and sw of a Springfield to Robinson line. Some patchy frost
possible ne CWA late tonight/early Thu morning, with mid 30s
around Danville/Vermilion county. Do not think the frost will
widespread enough for a frost advisory but may issue a special
weather statement to address this as growing season has started
along and south of a Rushville to Lincoln to Danville line.

A pretty nice day expected Thu with ample sunshine and light
winds as IL will be in between cutoff upper level low in southern/
southeast TN river valley and upper level trof moving into the
upper MS river valley and into the central plains. After a cool
start to the day, expected afternoon temps to peak in the mid to
upper 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Weak upper level trof and associated cold front to push se through
IL late Thu night and Friday morning and should pass through dry
with limited moisture and lift. Models have light qpf over great
lakes region Thu night and Fri morning. Lows Thu night of 40-45F
with a passing band of clouds with front.

12Z models dig a stronger upper level low/trof southward into the
Great Lakes Friday and Fri night, and bring chances of rain
showers into areas just ne of Vermilion county by late Fri
afternoon and Fri evening. NAM12 and GEM models keeps light qpf
ne of CWA Fri evening, while GFS and ECMWF models have light qpf
into central IL during Fri evening. Have increased cloud cover
during this time, though continued a dry forecast as moisture
appears limited this far sw. Highs in the 60s Friday, with lows
Fri night of 40-45F again.

Cooler conditions expected behind this cold front and upper level
trof Sat and Sat night. Highs Sat in the upper 50s to near 60F
along and ne of I-74 and lower 60s sw of I-74. Weak Canadian high
pressure of 1026 mb builds into IL/WI during Sat night and brings
clear skies and light winds. Cool lows in the 35-40F range on Sat
night and could bring patchy frost again overnight Sat night
especially along and ne of I-74.

High pressure to shift east of IL into the OH/TN river valley
while upper level ridge shifts east into the MS river valley by
sunset Sunday. This to be the start of a nice warm up early next
week. Highs Sunday back in the mid to upper 60s, then warm into
the mid to upper 70s on Monday, upper 70s to around 80F Tue and
upper 70s on Wed. Dry conditions should continue Sunday through
Tue, expect have slight chance of showers and isolated
thunderstorms nw of the IL river late Tue afternoon. As strong
upper level ridge shifts into the eastern states early next work
week, a strong upper level trof digs over the western states
putting IL in a more unsettled upper level flow by middle of next
week. Chances of showers and thunderstorms for mainly areas west
of I-57 Tue night and across CWA on Wed and Wed night as a cold
front moves se into central IL by sunrise Thu.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. Scattered
to broken cirrus is over the southern half of the area and will
remain overnight, but then slide to the south and southeast
tomorrow. Clear skies are expected later in the morning through
the afternoon and into the evening. Winds will be light and
variable through the period.




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