Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 270230 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1030 PM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A renewed slight chance of showers exists ahead of the actual
  front but those will be confined to areas along and north of
  Interstate 64 for an hour or so either side of midnight.

- Temperatures cool to within a few degrees of normal through
  Thursday, with the threat for sub-freezing temperatures
  returning for many western valley locations Thursday morning and
  all valley areas Friday morning.

- PoPs start to creep back in from the northwest this weekend,
  with temperatures returning to well above normal.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1030 PM EDT TUE MAR 26 2024

Just a quick update to the forecast mainly to fine tune the PoPs
with the cold front that will be pushing into our northern
counties around midnight. Did also add in the latest obs and
trends for the T/Td grids. These minor adjustments have been
sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the
zones.

UPDATE Issued at 745 PM EDT TUE MAR 26 2024

23Z sfc analysis shows low pressure passing through the northern
Ohio Valley and pushing a cold front across Kentucky. This front
will be entering eastern Kentucky shortly, but the bulk of any
showers have just about faded out for its southern extent.
Likewise, the main batch of showers have shifted out to the east
of the state. Clearing follows this lead area of showers with more
clouds to follow - accompanying the cold front. Breezy conditions
precede and trail the front - initially from the south to
southwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph - then more
westerly at similar speeds post fropa. Look for these winds to
shift east with the boundary into eastern Kentucky this evening,
but generally be a magnitude less owing to nightfall and a
lessening of the pressure gradient. Currently, temperatures are
fairly uniform in the upper 50s to lower 60s across the area -
supported by those prefrontal southerly breezes. Meanwhile,
dewpoints are running in the low 50s most places. The front will
pass through mostly dry, return some low clouds to the area, and
allow temperatures to drop into the 40s by dawn on those west
winds later tonight and the CAA they bring. Have updated the
forecast pushing the last of the PoPs out to the east and drying
out the front, as well as allowing for more clouds with and behind
the front. Did also include the latest obs and trends for the
T/Td grids. These updates have been sent to the NDFD and web
servers along with a forthcoming freshening of the zones and SAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 346 PM EDT TUE MAR 26 2024

Current surface analysis is pretty active with multiple surface lows
working across the CONUS. The first one is tracking across the Upper
Midwest with a cold front extending southward to the Gulf Coast. The
second is a low moving across the Deep South. The Deep South low
continues to keep cloud cover across the area with a little assistance
in the wind fields. The main culprit responsible for the weather in
the Commonwealth is the Midwest low. As of the 15Z surface analysis,
the cold front is beginning to cross into the Commonwealth. Current
radar has a line of showers developing ahead of the cold front. The
showers moving through presently are beginning to shift off to the
east. Showers will slowly taper off from west to east over the next
couple of hours before a small break in the rain arrives and then a
few isolated showers associated with the front. Those showers with
the front look to be mostly isolated to areas along I-64 as a
southerly winds are forecast to advect drier air into the area and
keep moisture availability to a minimum ahead of the front. Ahead of
the front, high temperatures are forecast to climb into the upper-
50s and possibly into the low-60s in a few locations.

Once the front comes through tonight, on the backside of the front,
temperatures and clouds will be decreasing. Overnight lows are
forecast to bottom out in the lower-40s along the I-75 corridor and
mid-40s for areas east. Cooler air is in place as surface high
pressure builds into the area for Wednesday with highs climbing back
into the upper-50s to low-60s in a few areas. Continued decreasing
clouds will allow for overnight lows to fall across the area
Wednesday night into Thursday. Wednesday night lows are forecast to
be in the upper-20s to low-30s with the potential for frost
developing across the area by early Thursday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 424 PM EDT TUE MAR 26 2024

The period will start with a progressive upper level trough over the
Great Lakes and Midwest, along with an associated surface cold
front. The trough is expected to depart to the east and remove
support for southward frontal propagation before the front can reach
us. The front is currently forecast to stall across IN and OH on
Thursday night and Friday, with whatever limited precip there is
staying close to the front. Surface high pressure moving from AR on
Thursday to the southeast CONUS Atlantic coastal waters by Friday
night should be our controlling feature. Broad ridging aloft will
move over us on Friday and Friday night, promoting a warming trend
as the surface high departs to the east.

A shortwave trough rippling through the upper ridge will help to
flatten it and will support a weak surface low moving across the
Midwest and Great Lakes during the weekend. This will send the
aforementioned frontal boundary south, with both the GFS and ECMWF
suggesting it reaches somewhere into KY on Sunday before it again
stalls. A modest increase in moisture is also anticipated, which
could support some showers near the front.

By Sunday, a large upper level trough should have developed over the
western CONUS, with a lee low over the central high plains. As the
trough shifts eastward, the low will travel along the frontal
boundary and temporarily pull it back north. Flow off the gulf
will continue to bring us increasing moisture, and as the low
passes to our north and its trailing cold front approaches,
showers and thunderstorms are expected. Timing of the frontal
passage and hence highest POP is still a bit in question, but the
highest POP looks to be in the neighborhood of Monday night or
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
ISSUED AT 805 PM EDT TUE MAR 26 2024

VFR conditions have returned to most of the terminals ahead of the
front with an exception for some MVFR CIGs reported at SYM. The
arrival of the front will cause CIGS to lower back into MVFR
starting after midnight for the northeastern sites before
conditions gradually improve toward 14Z. All TAF sites are
expected to become VFR by Wednesday afternoon. Winds will be
breezy from the south to southwest at 10 kts or so for a few more
hours before switching to the west late tonight - gradually
diminishing to between 5 and 10 kts by dawn and continuing that
way through the day, Wednesday.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...VORST/GREIF


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