Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 220240

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1040 PM EDT Wed Mar 21 2018

A coastal storm will bring some snow south and east of the Capital
Region tonight. Generally fair but chilly conditions will return for
Thursday into Friday, although a passing upper level disturbance
could bring some snow showers for Friday.



...Winter Weather Advisory for Dutchess and Litchfield Counties
until 8 AM Thursday...

As of 1040 PM EDT...The latest radar and observational trends
combined with the most recent 3-km HRRR and NAM nest guidance
support dropping the advisories in Ulster, eastern Columbia, and
southern Berkshire Counties. We also collaborated with WFO BOX
and OKX about converting the Winter Storm Warning for Litchfield
County to an advisory. The low-level dry air with the north to
northeast flow from high pressure over Hudson Bay continues to
keep the pcpn echoes suppressed south and east of the I-90

The 00Z KALY sounding continues to show a slow and gradual
moistening of the column with clouds near H700 or about 10 kft
AGL. The PWAT has only risen to 0.28". The column finally
moistened between 9-10 pm for snow at KPOU. A few light snow
amounts have come in in southern Litchfield County in the 1-2"
range. Please see our latest PNS. An additional 2-5" is possible
with the heaviest amounts from Poughkeepsie-Torrington south
and east. Further north, a coating to a few inches is possible.
Some retooling of the PoPs and temps was done based on
observational trends. Portions of the Capital Region north and
west will received a few flakes or no snow at all.

Lows tonight mainly in the upper teens to mid 20s northern
areas, and mid/upper 20s central and southern areas. North to
northeast winds will remain brisk, esp across southern areas
where some gusts up to 25 mph could occur.

For Thursday, some lingering snow showers may be ongoing through
the morning across the Taconics, Berkshires, Litchfield Hills,
and even the Capital Region, before decreasing in the afternoon.
Some breaks in the clouds are expected to develop in the
afternoon. It will remain quite breezy, with northwest winds
gusting up to 25-30 mph at times. Highs should reach the upper
30s to lower 40s in valleys, with mainly lower/mid 30s across
higher terrain.

Weak shortwave ridging should build across Thursday night,
allowing for some clearing to occur. Temps may fall off more
than currently forecast due to decoupling, with current
forecast lows in the teens to mid/upper 20s, although again,
may be quite a bit lower in some areas.


An upper tropospheric shortwave trough will remain over the
Northeast Friday through Sunday morning with multiple pieces of
shortwave energy slipping southward over the region. Limited moisture
and lift will inhibit precipitation beyond snow flurries or a few
passing showers over the weekend. The Adirondacks and higher terrain
in southern Vermont could see up to a few tenths of an inch of snow
accumulation over the weekend. High temperatures on Friday and
Saturday will be in the low 30s to low 40s with low temperatures in
the upper teens to mid 20s.


The mean longwave trough over the Northeast will begin to weaken by
the end of the weekend, as a high amplitude ridge builds into the
Northeast from the west/southwest with temperatures moderating
closer to late March seasonal normal readings.

Sunday...A large sfc Canadian anticyclone /1040 hPa/ attempts to
ridge in from north-central Quebec, as an upper level trough moves
across the region with some isolated rain and snow showers
especially over the higher terrain south and east of the Capital
Region.  The cold pool with the upper low will focus some
instability showers tied to the diurnal heating based on the latest
12Z GFS/ECMWF/GEFS/CMC. H850 temps will be in the -8C to -10C range.
Highs will run below normal by 10 degrees or so with upper 30s to
lower 40s in the valley areas, and upper 20s to mid 30s over the
higher terrain.

Sunday night into Monday Night...A high amplitude ridge builds in
from the Southeast through the Great lakes Region and into eastern
Canada. The H500 ridge folds over into the Northeast and the
Canadian Maritimes early in the week with a big cutoff cyclone off
the New England Coast. H500 heights increase to 570 decameters over
southeast Ontario and southern Quebec. Fair and cold or cool weather
will persist with lows in the teens and 20s, and highs on Monday
getting into mid 30s to mid 40s.

Tuesday will be the transition day where temperatures get closer to
normal readings with the sfc anticyclone anchored over northern New
England and the East Coast. A cold front will be approaching from
the northern Plains and western Great Lakes Region.  Highs reach the
upper 40s to around 50F in the valleys with abundant sunshine, and
upper 30s to mid 40s in the mtns.

Tuesday night into Wednesday...Some differences with the medium
range guidance and the ensembles on the timing of the break down of
the ridge over the Northeast.  A cold front, and a sfc low will be
approaching from the Midwest and Great Lakes Region.  We slowly
increased a slight chance to chance of rain/snow showers late
Tue night into Wednesday with seasonable temps for the forecast


Coastal storm continues to spin offshore, sending snow bands
north and west across southern New England and southern New
York. Moisture associated with the storm is battling a stout
feed of dry air from the north, and currently the dry air is
winning out. Snow potential at KALB/KGFL is little to none with
VFR conditions prevailing under a midlevel stratus deck. Snow
potential remains uncertain at KPOU/KPSF. Current thinking is
that the column will eventually saturate enough to support
snowfall at KPOU, but the timing was pushed back a few hours.
Once snowfall begins, visibility will likely deteriorate quickly
to IFR within an hour or two. The timing of the onset of
snowfall remains uncertain, making this a highly challenging
forecast. Even less confidence for snow potential at KPSF, but
enough evidence to maintain a mention of MVFR snow showers with
a TEMPO for IFR.

Conditions improve at KPSF/KPOU late tonight as the coastal
storm pulls away, with drier air raising ceilings to VFR late
tonight or early Thursday morning.

Winds will remain mainly northerly tonight at around 10 kt.
Winds will become north-northwesterly at around 10 to 15 kt late
Thursday morning into the afternoon, with some gusts of 20 to 25
kt possible.


Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...SHSN.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday:  Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.


The Fire Weather season has officially begun across eastern New
York and western New England. Despite this, snow cover is in
place across much of the region, which will mitigate any
potential fire weather hazards for the time being. Additional
snowfall is expected today into tonight for southeastern parts
of the area which will continue to prevent issues in the near
future as well.

A coastal storm will brush far southeastern parts of the region with
some snow for tonight. Generally fair but chilly conditions will
return for Thursday into Friday, although a passing upper level
disturbance could bring some snow showers for Friday.


No hydrologic issues are anticipated through the week.

Although northern areas will stay dry today into tonight, areas
south and east of the Capital Region will see some snow for
tonight, with the heaviest amounts across Dutchess and
Litchfield counties. Total liquid equivalent in these areas will
be up to one half of an inch, although areas outside Dutchess
and Litchfield Counties will generally see less than a quarter
of an inch. This snowfall won`t have any immediate impact on
area rivers and streams.

Behind this storm system, mainly dry weather is then expected
for the remainder of the week and into the weekend. There could
be a few passing snow showers or flurries for Friday through
Sunday, but this will produce little to no measurable

A slow diurnal snowmelt is expected over the next several days,
with temperatures above freezing during the day, and below
freezing at night. There will be little impact on the waterways
with minimal, if any, rises.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.


CT...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for CTZ001-013.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for NYZ065-066.


SHORT TERM...Cebulko
LONG TERM...Wasula
HYDROLOGY...Frugis/KL is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.