Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 231941

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
241 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018


Today and Tonight...Not to sound like a broken record, but the warm
and humid conditions will persist across the ArkLaMiss through the
forecast period.  Convection from this afternoon will continue to
develop through early evening, before gradually beginning to
dissipate after sunset and daytime heating wanes.  With such a
deeply moist and unstable airmass over the region, a few strong
storms are possible during the rest of the afternoon, with an
isolated storm potentially reaching severe limits.  Gusty winds will
be the primary concern with such storms, but small hail can`t be
ruled out.  Frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes and very
heavy downpours can both be expected.

Scattered clouds will linger across a good portion of the forecast
area overnight.  While I won`t rule out a stray shower during the
overnight hours, it currently looks like most of the activity will
have subsided by midnight.  Overnight lows will remain on par with
those observed the past several night, as they fall into the upper
60s to lower 70s.

Currently, Thursday looks to yet again be a carbon copy of the
previous day.  Highs will warm to around 90 under partly to mostly
cloudy skies.  As the warming ensues and our atmosphere further
destabilizes, scattered to numerous showers and storms will begin
developing across the forecast area.  As we`ve seen the past few
days, a few strong storms look possible, with an isolated storm
reaching severe limits not entirely out of the question. /19/

.Thursday night through Tuesday: The primary focus will be for a
summer like pattern with scattered convection until we get to the
weekend into early next week for a subtropical or tropical like
disturbance tracking from the northern gulf.

There will be some ridging followed by some troughiness with weak
flow over the forecast area through the period. Pwats will from
around 1.8 inches until we get into the later half of the weekend
into early next week with amounts exceeding 2 inches. For Thursday
into Friday look for scattered convection during the heat of the day
which will decrease some the evening. This will change as we get
richer moisture coming out of the gulf with the subtropical or
tropical feature settling in the northern gulf. Expect thunderstorm
coverage to increase and to last through the night during the
weekend into early next week. With daytime heating, good instability
and light flow through the atmospheric column isolated strong to
severe storms will be possible with some microburst potential for
gusty winds. Also with light flow could also get slow moving storms
with locally heavy rainfall, esp when they train over the same area
for flash flooding issues. As far as the gulf disturbance is concern
models and their ensembles have a range of solutions from landfall
off the southeast Louisiana coast to northwest Florida. If it goes a
more eastern route we will be less affected by any heavy rainfall,
and vice versa if the route goes closer to the area we could get
more effected by heavy rainfall. WPC has the low pressure
disturbance making landfall on the Southeast Louisiana coast and
tracks it west across Southern Louisiana. NHC projects a 60 percent
chance of the system becoming a tropical depression in 5 days in the
northern gulf. We will continue to monitor this system in future
model runs.

Daily highs will be in the 80s. Nightly lows will be around the
middle 60s to the lower 70s. Adjusted for higher pops over the
weekend into early next week going toward WPC guidance on the low


18Z TAF discussion:
Scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected across the
area this afternoon and early evening.  Although VFR flight
categories will prevail at sites through much of the forecast
period, degraded ceilings and/or visibilities from convection
observed on-station will result in categories briefly falling to
MVFR/IFR status.  Gusty winds and small hail will be possible with
the most intense storms.  Frequent lightning strikes and heavy
downpours will accompany all of today`s activity.  Surface winds
will be from the east northeast around 5 knots.  These will become
light to calm overnight into Thursday morning. /19/


Jackson       69  89  69  87 /  31  53  32  63
Meridian      69  88  68  87 /  29  51  34  70
Vicksburg     71  89  70  88 /  28  57  28  51
Hattiesburg   68  88  68  87 /  40  63  34  73
Natchez       70  88  69  87 /  25  63  32  54
Greenville    71  89  71  88 /  22  34  22  44
Greenwood     70  89  70  88 /  22  34  22  49





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