Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 222340
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
640 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018

.UPDATE...

Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion.

&&

.AVIATION...

Lingering TS will diminish by around 23/04Z across central and
southern AR, and MVFR to IFR or worse BR/FG expected again
overnight. Any vis/cig restrictions improve around or after
23/13Z, then another day of scattered TS with VCTS mention at all
terminals after 23/14Z.

Cooper

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 308 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018)

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Thursday

We are still locked in an early summer pattern locally.
Weak fronts are meandering into Arkansas from the north, with
a storm system aloft wobbling into the region from the southern
Plains. The result is isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms, with most of these occurring during the
heat of the afternoon and early evening.

Any severe weather the next couple of days will be spotty,
with strong/damaging winds possible in places. An even bigger
concern will be localized flooding due to very heavy downpours
and little storm movement.

As storms fall apart at night and there is clearing with
light winds, look for areas of fog and lowering visibilities.

As far as temperatures, readings will generally be above
average through the near term.

LONG TERM...Thursday Night Through Tuesday

Little change made to the long term forecast as models are generally
not in good agreement. Long term begins with surface High pressure
centered well east of Arkansas with the state under an upper level
ridge. This will result in warm and moist southerly flow across the
state. Temperatures will continue to run between five and ten
degrees above normal with dewpoints in the upper 60`s to near 70.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain in the
forecast...however widespread organized rain is not expected.

Long term models are beginning to converge on a solution for the
system in the Gulf by the late weekend. The GFS, ECMWF, and the
Canadian all agree that a low will develop, however the exact timing
and location of this system can vary by quite a bit depending on the
model and at this point will continue to take a more broad brush
approach in the long term.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


Aviation...COOPER


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