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000
FXUS63 KIWX 221647
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1247 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers Tuesday, turning cool Wednesday-Thursday with frost
  possible early Thursday morning

- Big warmup next weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 212 AM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Weak warm advection this morning will ramp this aftn as flow veers
swrly ahead of potent nrn stream wave ovr wrn MB attm. This wave and
its counterpart over nern Hudson Bay have trended less phased since
yesterday which is of note as it yields a less substantial cold
advection wing Wed night and hopefully staves off a hard freeze.
Delayed moisture entrainment ahead of this sys will keep rain
amounts down from what they could be given excellent frontal/upper
dynamics, heaviest south in proximity to deeper but late arriving
theta-e ridge. Chilly post frontal airmass follows Wed which sets
the stage for another widespread frost Wed night if not a freeze
although trend has ticked higher for overnight mins.

Strong rebound follows as pattern aloft across the CONUS reshuffles
in response to sig wrn-cntrl US troughing Thu onward which will
bring about unseasonably warm wx by next weekend as substantial
downstream thermal ridge builds. Steady pump of low level moisture
within broad/deepening warm sector periods of showers and increasing
thunder with time Fri-Mon although notable spread indicated with
timing/placement of wave disturbances ejecting out of the wrn US
longwave trough.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1243 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

VFR conditions prevail through 12Z Tuesday. Winds will stay
gusty overnight and into the day tomorrow as a cold front
approaches with gusts 25 to 30 knots likely. Low level wind
shear is likely early Tuesday morning. Ceilings will quickly
drop Tuesday morning as rain approaches the area, as MVFR
ceilings develop. The heaviest rain will be along and south of
US 30 in Indiana, so have lower visibilities and heavier rain at
KFWA compared to KSBN. There is potential for IFR ceilings and
visibilities near the end of the TAF cycle; the NBM has 30-40%
chances, especially at KFWA where heavier rain is expected by
18Z Tuesday.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 10 PM EDT
     Wednesday for LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Andersen
AVIATION...Johnson