Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 242009

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
309 PM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night): Warm and dry weather will
continue through Sunday, with overhead ridging providing stable
conditions and strong high pressure over the Gulf coupled with a
Plains low pressure system supporting moderate to strong south
southeast winds. High temps Sunday will range from the mid 80s east
to the mid 90s west, slightly warmer than normal by 5 to 10 degrees.
A mix of clouds and sun along with breezy to windy conditions will
prevail on Sunday. As the H5 ridge shifts east and a more
southwesterly mid level flow develops over the Sierra Madre Oriental
range of Mexico Sunday night, unorganized isolated showers or
thunderstorms may develop well to the west, but should keep their
distance from deep South Texas and the RGV. Low temps will be around

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday): 500mb ridge across the
western Gulf of Mexico Monday will move eastward Tuesday as a
500mb trough moves eastward across the western United States.
Significant convection with heavy rainfall is expected to develop
across western and northern portions of Texas Mon night into
Tuesday and these showers and thunderstorms...some possibly
strong to severe...will move southward into portions of south TX
Tues night into Wednesday. A prefrontal trough is progged to move
through the CWA Wed afternoon providing a slight chance of showers
and thunderstorms for the area. Best chance of rain likely Wed
night through early Thursday as a Pacific cold front moves through
the Rio Grande valley Thursday. Will go ahead and increase POPS
slightly higher Wed night into early Thursday as a result.
Temperatures will continue to be much above normal Monday through
Wednesday before drier and slightly cooler air filters into the
area on Thursday. More seasonable temperatures will prevail
through the rest of the forecast period with not much in the way
of rain chances as a weak and dry cold front moves through deep
south TX on Friday.

.MARINE (Now through Sunday night): Marine winds will taper off to
below SCA criteria this evening. Buoy 020 reports a wave height right
around 7 feet, and if that continues the current advisory may need
to be extended tonight for the offshore Gulf waters. Not much change
is expected through Sunday night, with strong Gulf high pressure
propping up the local gradient and interacting with one High Plains
storm system scooting east today and then with another set to
develop on Sunday. Winds on Sunday could again be in the 15 to 25
knot range with persistent elevated wave heights and possible low
end small craft advisory conditions.

Monday through Thursday...Moderate to strong southeast winds will
prevail across the coastal waters Monday and Tuesday with surface
low pressure across the southern plains and high pressure across
the eastern Gulf of Mexico provides a strong pressure gradient
across the western Gulf. SCEC to SCA conditions will prevail
across the lower Texas coast Monday and Tuesday. Winds are
expected to weaken Wednesday as a convective frontal boundary
moves into south TX. Small craft advisories will likely still be
needed for the offshore waters for high seas on Wednesday. A
Pacific cold front is expected to move through the coastal waters
Thursday. Winds will shift to the north and increase in the wake
of the front. Small craft advisories may be needed Thursday as a

BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  72  83  72  85 /  10  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          71  85  71  86 /  10  10  10  10
HARLINGEN            71  88  71  89 /  10  10  10  10
MCALLEN              71  90  70  92 /  10  10  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      70  95  70  96 /  10  10  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   72  79  72  82 /  10  10  10  10

TX...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ251-254>257.

GM...Small Craft Advisory for winds until 7 PM CDT this evening for

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for GMZ150-155-


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