254
FXUS64 KJAN 210236
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
936 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 936 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

No adjustments have been made to the forecast for this evening.
Quiet conditions are expected to occur across the ArkLaMiss region
for the next several hours as sounding analysis from this evening
indicate subtle capping due to subsidence and drier air aloft around
850 mb. Because of this, cloud cover is forecasted to slightly
increase across N/NE portions of the CWA for a few hours before
dissipating around midnight. Overnight lows will drop into the 70s
with areas east of I-55 dipping into the upper 60s. Updates are out.
/CR/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 456 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Tonight through next Friday...

Tonight through Monday: Quiet and dry conditions will persist
through tonight as an H5 ridge centered over Texas with the axis
stretching well into the northeast will continue the northwesterly
flow aloft promoting a drying trend in the mid-levels.
Northwesterly flow aloft will limit return flow from the gulf as
PWs area wide struggle to reach the 1.5in range with a slot of
drier air across the southern portions of the CWA. Overnight temps
will be be slightly warmer with low temperatures than previous
days dropping into the high 60s to right around 70 areawide. The
ridge will weaken overnight into tomorrow as it continues moving
slightly eastward allowing for high pressure to move into the area
both at the surface and aloft. With ridging across the
southeastern states expected to continue into early next week,
this will result in persistent quiet conditions with high
temperatures daily being in the low 90s and low temperatures daily
in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Tuesday Through next Friday: By Tuesday the ridge looks to break
down with an upper trough flattening out across the southeastern
states. This will allow for energy to move across the Rockies and
lift into the Mid-MS River Valley. As the dominant ridge breaks
down, return flow will increase with better low level moisture
flowing into the area. In addition, there will also be a weak
front looking to drop into the area from the north. With all those
factors in mind, the area will retain low end PoPs (20-30%)
through the end of the forecast period.

It is also worth noting that towards the end of the forecast period
there is increasing uncertainty of a potential tropical
disturbance in the southern Gulf of Mexico that has a 50% chance
of cyclone formation in the next 7 days. However global models
haven`t shown much consensus of the strength or possible
positioning if it were to evolve later next week in the Gulf of
Mexico. As we progress closer in time, we will provide additional
information on any potential tropical concerns. /KP/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 723 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Quiet & dry TAF period expected the next 24 hours. Some fair
weather cumulus around the 6-8kft range are possible again into
Saturday, with mostly clear skies/VFR flight categories expected.
Winds will be near calm tonight & light southerly wind into Saturday
aftn, generally less than 10mph sustained. /DC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       70  93  71  92 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      68  94  69  93 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     70  94  70  92 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   70  95  70  94 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       70  93  69  91 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    69  93  70  91 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     70  94  71  93 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

KP/DC