095
FXUS64 KJAN 041811
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
111 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 1001 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Some stratus continues to persist this morning but is beginning
to dissipate across the area. Skies will become partly cloudy
across most of the area this afternoon, but with weak disturbances
combining with afternoon heating, expect isolated to scattered
storms to develop this afternoon. Expect the storms to remain
mostly below severe limits, but a strong storm or two will be
possible. Highs this afternoon will climb into the mid 80s for
most of the area./15/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Today and Tonight: Early morning satellite imagery/RAP analysis
showed our CWA in the wake of a departing shortwave trough. The
result was drying aloft with nearly zonal flow across our CWA. This
has led to less cloud cover and the development of fog across our
CWA. Patchy dense fog was currently being observed but the areas of
dense fog is expected toward morning warranting the continuation of
a Dense Fog Advisory for the whole CWA. The 00Z JAN sounding had a
PWAT near and inch and a half. Early morning surface analysis still
had a weak ridge nosing across our CWA from the east. Flow around
this ridge will help maintain low level moisture while models show
deep moisture increasing back across our CWA today from the west.
Subtle disturbances within the near zonal flow aloft is expected to
combine with daytime heating and our moist airmass for isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly during the afternoon.
Although a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out, the main focus
for severe storms will be to our west again today. This evening the
convection will show a distinct diurnal trend and dissipate with the
loss of daytime heating. Models do suggest some convective develop
in our toward sunrise as a northern stream shortwave trough tries to
drop a weak cold front close to our CWA. With a later start to the
convection today, temperatures are expected to top out a few degrees
above normal. Morning lows Sunday will continue above normal as
well. /22/

Sunday: Continued rain and storm chances will be possible Sunday in
the (30-50%) range as another short wave will pass through the area.
Expect convection to be isolated to scattered as remnant storm
activity in the high plains will be the main factor, as
redevelopment will be possible in our area as heating occurs and
instability increases by mid-day. Thus a marginal risk for severe
storms has been added to the HWO with the main threats being
isolated threat for damaging winds and hail.

Monday through Wednesday: Expect above-normal temperatures early in
the week, with heat persisting through mid-week. The mesoscale
weather pattern shifts to the typical western trough to eastern
ridge. As the ridge shifts eastward, southwesterly slow and surface
ridging will help a strong surface high build into the ArkLaMiss
region. THis will help low-level moisture to flow and keep surface
temperatures well above normal. Minor rain and storm chances will
hang around through mid-week in the (20-30%) range with there being
a better storm environment in the far north that could produce better
chances.

Thursday and Friday: Come Thursday the forecast shifts as the
potential for severe storms with Friday having higher confidence.
Upper level troughing in the western plains will become negatively
tilted and provide a source of multiple disturbances through late
week. As a front pushes down into the region it is possible for some
strong to severe storms to form along the front. For Friday the
storm environment seems more conducive for severe storm production
as lapse rates will steepen, increased moisture, shear and lift will
all be present. Organized thunderstorms with the main threats being
damaging wind and hail are anticipated. This event is possible
however confidence isn`t very high at this time as there is a good
degree of uncertainty this far out in the forecast especially on
timing.

Following the cold front, much cooler temps will ensue going into
next weekend. /KP/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 107 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Most TAF sites are VFR this afternoon with the exception of GWO.
Expect all sites to become VFR by 19Z and remain VFR through much
of the period. Stratus/fog will develop mainly over the southeast
early on Sunday, which may bring IFR/LIFR condition to
PIB/HBG./15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       86  65  84  67 /  40  30  50  30
Meridian      88  64  88  66 /  30  20  40  30
Vicksburg     86  66  82  66 /  40  30  50  30
Hattiesburg   89  66  88  67 /  30  20  30  10
Natchez       86  65  81  66 /  40  20  50  20
Greenville    85  67  81  67 /  30  30  60  50
Greenwood     85  67  84  67 /  30  30  60  60

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

/15