661
FXUS64 KJAN 130217
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
917 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - A strong cold front will bring a variety of impacts to the
    area as we finish up the week and go into early next week.

  - There is a limited threat for strong storms preceding and
    following the front, and a line of strong to severe storms
    containing damaging wind gusts is Sunday night.

  - Much colder air moving in Monday will bring a significant
    freeze threat to portions of the area Monday night.

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 917 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Weather conditions will remain quiet tonight as the surface high
continues to settle over the region. Sky conditions will remain
clear heading into the overnight period allowing for radiational
cooling to occur across our forecast area. Nighttime lows will dip
into the upper 30s/lower 40s areawide. Updates are out. /CR/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 337 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Wind will diminish for the remainder of the afternoon as weak
surface high settles in over the region, and this will make for a
chilly overnight. Going into the weekend, the high will shift east
resulting in increased return southerly flow. A stout upper
trough will support a rapidly deepening surface low across the
plains, and it`s attendant cold front will be the focus for our
next storm chances. Shear is strong with this system and combined
with what will probably be sufficient lapse rates, so confidence
has increased for a strongly forced convective line capable of
producing strong to damaging wind gusts Sunday night. This severe
threat will zip across the area in quick fashion, and strong
pressure falls and rises either side of the front in association
with this dynamic system will result in a strong gradient wind
threat as well. Confidence has now increased enough to message
for all of these hazards in the HWO graphics.

The freeze threat continues to increase for early next week as
winter makes a brief return. Lows will likely fall below freezing
Monday night/Tuesday morning, and they could be well below
freezing over north central/northeast portions of the area (<28 F).
This is especially notable given the recent record warmth, so
plants will be vulnerable. Impacts to unprotected sensitive
vegetation are likely, and so have gone ahead with graphical HWO
messaging for this threat. It appears the primary freeze concerns
will be for Mon night, but some frost/freeze threats can`t be
ruled out for Tue night as well. Thereafter, a warming trend is
expected for the remainder of the week as mid/upper level heights
build over our region. /SAS/EC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Winds will continue to subside through this evening becoming
light to calm overnight. Winds will become more southerly between
5-10 knots Friday morning. Otherwise, quiet weather conditions
will persist across all TAF sites with VFR conditions prevailing.
/CR/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       38  70  46  76 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      38  71  44  76 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     38  70  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   40  74  46  79 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       40  72  46  76 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    40  67  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     40  70  46  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SAS/EC/CR