Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 050332 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
932 PM CST Thu Mar 4 2021

.UPDATE...
Updated for evening discussion.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Evening satellite imagery showed a few high clouds beginning to
stream into our western zones from the west. No precipitation is
expected until Friday morning and no changes were needed to the
current forecast. /22/

Prior discussion below:

Tonight and Friday...For tonight, conditions will continue to be
predominately influenced by surface ridging enhanced by the long
wave trough to the east. Mostly clear skies and otherwise
favorable radiative cooling conditions will allow for another cool
night, with lows dipping into the middle 40s by around midnight.
Afterward, cloud cover begins to increase late tonight and into
Friday morning which will slow the cooling process and some areas
may hover in the mid 40s the remainder of the night.

Cloud cover and increasing rain chances by late morning will resist
significant warming, and Friday looks a bit cooler than today with
highs mostly in the middle 60s to lower 70s in the south. Rain
chances will increase through the day as the wave of low pressure
approaches. This wave will weaken and move more southerly under the
influence of deep layer confluent northwest flow on the upstream
side of the east coast trough, which will limit the impacts locally.
Rainfall totals will generally be light with most areas receiving
less than 0.25". The highest totals will likely be in the southwest
where some of the deeper convective elements may reside. A chance
for showers will likely continue into Saturday morning. /LP/

Friday Night through next Wednesday...A southeast moving disturbance
aloft, will continue to spread showers across the CWA Friday night
into early Saturday morning.  Fortunately, this activity currently
looks to only linger a couple of hours after sunrise, before
completely exiting Southeast Mississippi.  Cloud cover will follow
suit and exit out the region during the morning.  So Saturday will
not be a wash-out by any means, with mostly sunny skies expected
and highs ranging from the upper 50s to middle 60s.

Currently, quiet conditions are overall expected to prevail across
the forecast area through the remainder of the forecast period.
Ridging aloft will steadily increase across the region during this
time, with flow aloft becoming more west and southwesterly by the
middle of next week.  Meanwhile at the surface, high pressure will
build into and through the region, finally wedging itself into the
CWA from the northeast.  This will result in surface flow becoming
more southerly in the process.  All of this will result in
increasing moisture and thus warming conditions across the CWA
Sunday through Wednesday. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF discussion:
VFR conditions and a light wind will prevail through Friday
afternoon. An area of -RA will move over GLH after 21Z before
spreading over the remainder of the area Friday night. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       42  69  44  63 /   0  19  21   0
Meridian      42  69  43  63 /   0   5  19   1
Vicksburg     42  69  45  63 /   0  25  23   0
Hattiesburg   43  71  45  66 /   0   9  38   2
Natchez       44  68  45  63 /   0  26  35   0
Greenville    43  61  41  58 /   0  30  11   0
Greenwood     44  64  42  61 /   0  16  12   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&


$$

19/22/LP


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