Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 181607 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1007 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2020

Updated for morning discussion.


Shallow pre-frontal convective band continues moving east across
central MS producing a brief period of heavy rain. CAM guidance
indicates this area will diminish leaving isolated showers behind
and along the immediate boundary as it moves through later in the
afternoon. A few breaks in the clouds over the south will push
temps into the lower 70s, while dense cloud cover elsewhere will
keep temps in the 50s and 60s./GG/

Prior discussion below:

Today and Tonight...
Rain has already started to spread into the region from the west
ahead of an approaching cold front. Warm moist air will continue to
advect into the region ahead of the front, resulting in above
average temperatures and increasing shower activity on Saturday.
Although there may be some isolated thunderstorm activity in the
southern portions of ArkLaMiss today where instability could
overachieve and again along the front this afternoon as it begins
to finally move into the western portions of our region, no
severe weather is expected. Rainfall totals should remain below
one-half inch areawide, and even giving our wet antecedent
conditions, it won`t be enough to result in a threat of flash

As the surface front finally begins to traverse the region this
evening into tonight, cold air will quickly filter in behind. MOst
of the region will wake up Sunday morning to temperatures in the
30s, 35-40 degrees cooler than Saturday`s highs.

Sunday through Friday...
For the end of the weekend and into the first half of the work
week, colder and drier conditions will be on tap. General
troughing over the eastern half of the country will be reinforced
by a wave diving into the Plains Sunday night. Deeper cold air
will drop the high temperatures to the 40s for Monday and Tuesday,
warming into the lower 50s only over the southern half of the area
for Wednesday. Current 850mb temps in the 10-12C range will drop
to -5C to -7C by early Tuesday morning. Near a surface ridge axis
with a dry column overhead, some radiational cooling influence is
expected to drop the lows to the 20s. Counter to that, the winds
are expected to stay up a bit as the axis is just to the west.
However, those same light north/northeasterly winds will also
drop the wind chills into the teens for most of the northern half
of Mississippi. High pressure ridge slips to the east during the
overnight, accompanied by some mid level moisture/clouds keeping
the temps from dropping too far in the light and variable winds.
If that moisture does not materialize, the Wednesday morning
forecast will be a bit different in the next few runs. For now,
Wednesday is the beginning of a moderation in the forecast as the
southerly flow returns moisture and warmth into the region. High
temperatures are back to the 50s on Thursday and approaching 60
south of I-20. Next chances for precip come on Thursday/Thurs
night with the next wave digging into the SW and ejecting out
across the Gulf states. Major disparity between the ECMWF and the
GFS with handling the energy aloft as the ECMWF splits the wave,
with the weaker one to the south. The GFS is more phased, hence
deeper with the developing system across the Plains by Friday
morning. The current forecast is a melding of the two, with precip
from Thursday afternoon through to the weekend.


12Z TAF discussion:

Mainly MVFR conditions will exist through the day due to low CIGs
around the region. RA will also impact all TAF sites through the
day as rain spreads throughout region ahead of a frontal passage
this evening. SHRA could result in reduced visbys. Conditions
will begin to improve after 00Z when drier air begins to arrive in
the region behind the front.


Jackson       68  34  49  30 /  84  30   0   0
Meridian      66  35  50  28 /  83  56   0   0
Vicksburg     68  35  49  32 /  83  14   0   0
Hattiesburg   72  39  52  32 /  80  52   0   0
Natchez       70  36  50  33 /  88  30   0   0
Greenville    66  32  46  28 /  80   1   1   0
Greenwood     65  31  46  27 /  88   6   0   0




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