


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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347 FXUS64 KJAN 131802 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 102 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 ...New DISCUSSION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 102 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Tonight through Monday Night... Storms will come an end around 9pm later this evening with a few lingering showers possible across southeast AR. Quiet weather conditions will persist through the overnight period. Afternoon HREF guidance is showing low probabilities (around 10-20%) for patchy fog development along and south of Hwy 84. Confidence is too low to introduce any fog graphics at this time, however shallow patchy fog will be possible around dawn. Expect overnight lows to drop into the low 70s. Outside of diurnal convection, quiet weather conditions will persist through Monday morning as hi-res guidance continues to show a 1020mb sfc high hovering over the eastern Gulf. Rain chances will start to increase heading into Monday afternoon/early evening thanks to southerly moist boundary advection over our area along with PWATs near 2.01in. Heat stress will be the main concern for Monday with many areas across our forecast area approaching the 105 heat index criteria. Given afternoon highs in the mid 90s and dewpoints in the low/mid 70s, the "Limited" risk for heat stress will continue to be highlighted across our entire CWA through Monday. It is possible that a few areas north and west of Hwy 49 could see heat indices exceeding 105 degrees tomorrow afternoon. If this occurs, then a Heat Advisory could be issued from Bolivar MS down towards Hinds MS. Heat trends will be reassessed during the evening/midnight shift to see if a Heat Advisory may be needed for these areas. /CR/ Tuesday through Saturday... The forecast for the extended period remains on track for the most part with no significant changes made to the overall forecast. Dangerous heat will be the primary focus for the long term period for our entire forecast area beginning on Tuesday with heat index readings in the triple digits. Model consensus from both the GFS and the Euro is still showing the 1020mb sfc high starting to gradually retrograde across the southeast CONUS heading into Tuesday. As this high begins to push north into the region, humid conditions will persist across our CWA, which in turn, will lead to increasing heat conditions through the extended period. Looking at current forecast trends, it appears that heat indices will be in the 106-110 range next Tuesday through Friday given daytime highs forecasted in the mid/upper 90s along with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s (a few spots could potentially see dewpoints in the low 80s). At this time, no changes have been made to the heat graphic for the Tuesday/Friday timeframe and we will continue to highlight a "Elevated" risk for dangerous heat stress. Heat trends will continue to be monitored as we get through the new work week. If heat trends continue to increase, then a "Significant" risk will be introduce in later updates. Furthermore, heat advisories/warnings will eventually be needed as well. Afternoon/early evening showers and t-storms will provide some relief from the heat. Global guidance shows convection dissipating by the evening hours each day as daytime heating wanes. Future guidance shows southerly moist boundary layer from the Gulf across the region. This will allow for rain chances to continue heading into Saturday afternoon/early evening with higher PoPs (around 55- 75%) along and east of I-55. /CR/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 VFR flight categories will prevail at area TAF sites through the forecast period. Scattered to numerous showers and storms this afternoon and evening will be possible at area sites. If observed, convection could reduce both ceilings and/or visibilities to MVFR status for a brief period of time. Isolated severe storms will be possible this afternoon into early this evening. These storms will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts of 52 knots, but frequent lightning strikes and heavy downpours can be expected with on of today`s convection. Once convection passes and/or dissipates, categories will return to VFR status, and remain as such throughout the remainder of the forecast. Winds this afternoon away from convection will be sustained from the southwest between 5-8 knots, becoming light south to calm overnight. /19/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 73 94 75 96 / 10 30 0 20 Meridian 73 95 74 96 / 10 30 0 30 Vicksburg 74 95 75 96 / 10 20 0 20 Hattiesburg 74 96 75 98 / 10 30 0 40 Natchez 73 93 73 95 / 10 30 0 20 Greenville 73 93 74 94 / 10 30 10 20 Greenwood 74 94 75 96 / 10 30 0 20 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ CR/19/