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000
FXUS64 KJAN 210219
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
919 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

.UPDATE...
Updated for evening discussion.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Most of the afternoon convection has diminished with the exception
of light to moderate rain across portions of the southwest part of
Mississippi. This should continue to diminish through the rest of
the evening hours. Another muggy night is in store as lows will
drop into the lower to mid 70s. With moisture lingering, any
location where rain fell today will have potential for patchy fog
overnight. This will especially be the case where winds can
decouple sufficiently. Will keep mention of this in the weather
grids, which was included during an earlier evening update. Scaled
back POPs and rain chances to start a little later in the morning
but there could be some light rain across portions of the area
close to daybreak. /28/

Prior discussion below:


Tonight and Sunday: Convection did get an early start today and has
been most vigorous in our southeast where temperatures have been
knocked down in the 70s. Although no strong to severe storms are
expected today, the storms are moving slow and will produce locally
heavy downpours. Convection is expected to see a distinct diurnal
trend and weaken this evening with the loss of daytime heating.
Satellite imagery showed a weak shortwave just off the
Mississippi/Alabama coast that was aiding the convection. This
feature will continue moving west through Sunday and weaken.
Although the weakened shortwave will be west of our region Sunday,
we will still have a very moist airmass with PWATs in excess of two
inches and our CWA will remain in the weakness between east and west
mid level ridges. This combined with daytime heating will lead to
another day of at least scattered storms across most of our CWA. A
few hi-res models suggest another early start to the convection over
our north central and northeast zones. Afternoon highs look to be
held down in the 80s across more our our CWA Sunday. Very little
change is expected in the morning lows which will be in the low to
mid 70s again. /22/

Sunday night into next weekend...

By Monday morning, a cold front associated with a deepening upper
trough across the eastern half of the country, will begin to
approach the region from the north. Thunderstorms will exist out
ahead of this frontal boundary as it slowly makes its into the
region. The strongest thunderstorms will be possible in the
northern portions of the region on Monday during the times of
peak heating. More diurnally driven storms will be possible south
of the I-20 corridor during the day. The front will continue to
progress through the region on Monday night into Tuesday, keeping
rain and storms in the area. By Tuesday evening, the front will
be south of the region, finally stalling in the northern Gulf of
Mexico. Cooler, drier air will filter into the region behind the
front. Temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday will remain well
below normal with highs only reaching the low to mid 80s. Lows on
Wednesday and Thursday mornings will fall well into the 60s for
most of the area, barely staying above record lows on each day. A
warming trend will commence on Thursday as cold advection is cut
off allowing the dry air to warm more efficiently.

The cold front over the northern Gulf will begin to retreat back
north as a warm front late in the week. This will lead to
increasing rain and storm chances for Friday into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF discussion:
Scattered TSRA continue this early evening, mainly across SW MS.
This activity will diminish through the evening hours, with VFR
conditions prevailing across the region. Early Sunday morning, low
stratus and patchy fog development is possible, especially in
areas that received rain earlier today, with categorical
reductions in ceiling and visibility possible. Though ceilings/
visibilities will improve through mid-morning, redevelopment of
SHRA/TSRA is possible early in the day again on Sunday, bringing
additional potential for reductions in ceiling and visibility at
area TAF sites into the afternoon hours. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       73  89  73  88 /  12  53  20  52
Meridian      72  89  72  89 /  11  63  22  52
Vicksburg     76  89  74  89 /  12  49  17  49
Hattiesburg   72  87  72  89 /  14  67  24  59
Natchez       73  87  73  88 /  26  56  19  54
Greenville    76  88  74  88 /  11  67  22  61
Greenwood     74  87  74  87 /  11  69  23  62

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&


$$

28