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897
FXUS64 KJAN 070234 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
834 PM CST Fri Dec 6 2019

.UPDATE...
Updated for evening discussion.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A rather cool evening/night can be expected with lows ranging in
the lower to upper 40s for areas north of I-20 and near/at 50
degrees areas south of I-20. All PoPs have exited the region and
there is no expectation of any return showers for the overnight
period. Low clouds and area-wide patchy fog can be expected for
much of the rest of the evening/night. No major changes were made
to the previous forecast, it is well on track./JNE/

Prior discussion below:


Tonight and Tomorrow:

Storms have exited the region to the east as the responsible
shortwave trough weakens and moves east of the region as well. A
drier air mass is beginning to filter into the mid and upper
levels, but persistent low level moisture will result in
continuing cloud cover through the rest of the night and through
the day tomorrow.

If we achieve a few breaks in the cloud cover early Saturday
morning, we could see the development of some patchy fog. Even
under the influence of good CAA, the deck of clouds will help to
keep temperatures in the low 40s in the north to low 50s in the
south. A gloomy start to Saturday is expected as the low cloud
deck remains in place across the region. With the absence of
sunshine, temperatures will remain below normal through the
region. The abundant low level moisture could result in some light
sprinkles tonight and into Saturday for most of the region. No
measurable precipitation is expected through this period. /JPM3/

Saturday Night through Friday:

From the perspective of what has changed in the forecast for the
rest of this weekend and into next week, adjustments with this
forecast were due to the continued uncertainty in timing and
strength of shortwave trough development through that time. Some
lingering low cloudiness and possible misty/sprinkley weather
should continue through Sunday. Then returning southerly flow
ahead of the next low pressure system will lead to at least some
chance for showers and a few thunderstorms Monday into Tuesday
with the arrival of another cold front. Trends in latest guidance
were toward a stronger push to the cold front, but more post-
frontal precipitation into Tuesday night. It should be noted that
although forecast soundings show increasingly cold air aloft,
chances still favor the ending of precip before much colder air
can arrive. With the volatility of raw model guidance in the
extended, limited any temperature extremes to be closer to the
consensus. No hazardous weather is currently expected as we head
toward the middle of this month, but we will continue to monitor
trends in the guidance for any possible periods of impactful
weather. /NF/

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF discussion:
Patchy fog already starting to develop in Central Mississippi due
to enhanced moisture in the boundary layer post ra/tsra today.
Immediate concern for aviation is the low cigs and expected fog.
Have made an update with the lower visibilities in the southern
terminals where dwpts are anticipated to stay in the lower 50s,
and considerably less cloud cover already. Winds are generally
N/NE and light, though will increase a bit in the overnight hours
as the pressure gradient increases between the low over the Gulf
and sfc ridging to the N/NW. Given the stratus on sat imagery and
the anticipated winds over 5kts from 06z to 12z, have not dropped
TAFs further than MVFR and IFR just yet.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       48  57  48  67 /   7  11  12  13
Meridian      48  58  49  65 /   6  12  19  31
Vicksburg     46  56  47  68 /   6  12   6   6
Hattiesburg   51  59  49  69 /   7  12  15  26
Natchez       49  56  47  68 /   6  12   6   5
Greenville    43  53  46  63 /   4  12   4   6
Greenwood     44  56  47  64 /   5  12  10  15

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&


$$

JNE