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000
FXUS64 KJAN 011939
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
239 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2022

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Tomorrow...

Just as mentioned in this mornings discussion, the atmospheric
pattern pretty much hasn`t changed. Winds are still out of the
south/southeast and the disturbance along the TX/LA coast continues
to serve as one of the driving factors for isolated shower and
thunderstorm activity. showers and storms have kicked off across the
south west with some isolated pop up showers across the east and
north. This will be the story through this evening but as we start to
lose daytime heating, precip chances will decrease. The trend for
the last couple of days has been a few lingering light showers after
sun set so expect that to be the case this evening as well. While
severe weather is not anticipated, under the right conditions (storm
developing along an outflow boundary) a severe storm can`t be ruled
out. Expect mostly cloudy skies tonight with lows falling into the
low 70s.

Saturday`s weather will pretty much mimic these last few days.
Afternoon diurnal shower and storm activity with partly to mostly
cloudy skies. Highs will be in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees./JNE/

Saturday Night through Friday...

Saturday night will see a few lingering showers through late
evening, dissipating as we begin to cool off overnight. Lows
generally in the mid/low 70s F.  Seasonably warm and muggy
conditions will persist through much of the forecast period as
expansive upper ridging centered over the Central Rockies exerts
influence. Heading into Independence Day, we continue to note
forecast guidance signals indicating heat indices around 105 F for
much of the area. The general pattern suggests high confidence in a
forecast for increasing heat stress with little day to day change
beyond Monday through the work week. The most notable trend through
the week will likely be a slight warming trend as the ridging will
likely remain in place for quite some time. Highs this week will
return to the 90s F with lows only dropping into the middle 70s F.
This necessitates continuing HWO products for heat stress with a
Limited Risk (1/4) for heat stress conditions for most areas on
Monday, with most areas having an increase Elevated Risk (2/4)
through the remainder of the week.

Should the ridge axis drift further west into the Intermountain
West, we could see deep layer flow becoming more northerly across
the area with upper heights lowering just a bit (though still
anomalously high) which would likely be our coolest/wettest
possibility and a forecast close to seasonal. The current most
likely scenario keeps the ridge centered over the Rockies and should
keep storm coverage more isolated in the late afternoon into evening
through the week. The further the ridge can retrograde away from our
area, the higher our diurnal rain chances (and lower our heat
indices) will be. With the increasing heat and humidity and storms
not being totally absent our area, a few stronger thunderstorms with
some microburst potential will be possible with afternoon
thunderstorm activity this coming week. /86/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:
Iso showers and thunderstorm activity will continue through this
afternoon but should begin to lessen as the sun starts to set.
Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the period but there
will be moments of lowered ceilings during the latter half.
Another low cloud deck will move in tomorrow morning mainly
affecting central and southern sites. Patchy/shallow BR and FG
will be possible as well during that time. Winds will be light and
out of the S/SE, but could become gusty at times with
storms./JNE/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       71  87  72  90 /  46  63  16  45
Meridian      71  88  72  90 /  51  53  14  52
Vicksburg     71  87  72  90 /  42  69  22  38
Hattiesburg   72  87  73  91 /  53  65  10  49
Natchez       71  86  72  90 /  60  74  11  30
Greenville    72  88  72  88 /  21  57  27  53
Greenwood     72  90  73  89 /  28  49  23  57

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&


$$

JNE/LP