Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
341 FXUS64 KJAN 250535 AAA AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 1235 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 ...New AVIATION... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 838 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 It`s mostly clear across the area this evening as a transient surface ridge axis shifts eastward across the area. What`s left of the front that anchored last night`s storms is now stalled across central LA and south MS, leaving a marked gradient in dewpoints from north (low 40s) to south (low 60s). Overnight, low clouds and areas of fog will develop near and south of the remnant front, which may shift northward closer to I-20 by daybreak. Near term guidance dense fog probabilities are a mixed bag, with splotchy higher probabilities intermingled with much lower ones over roughly the southeastern half of the area. Given this, forecast confidence is not great enough to do a preemptive Dense Fog Advisory. Still, one may eventually be needed, and we`ll be monitoring for that through the night. For now, we`ll continue to highlight potential for dense fog in our HWO graphics. /DL/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 251 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Tonight through early next week... Preceding moist conditions along with southerly surface flow will favor fog development tonight, mainly south of the I-20 corridor. Have highlighted an area of elevated dense fog across the southeast tonight in HWO. Quiet weather is expected the rest of the week with a NW flow regime. A few embedded disturbances will bring a mix of sun and clouds throughout the week but dry weather should continue through Thursday night and into some of the day Friday. Rain and storms will return later Friday as a shortwave pushes across. This wave will prime the environment ahead of the ejection of the longer wave trough Sunday. Overall evolution of these features is uncertain at this time. Forcing for ascent will result in an even greater low level response, resulting in mid to upper 60s dewpoints overspreading the region. As such, there is a slight risk for severe storms that has been highlighted across the area for Sunday. All hazards are possible, but at this time, large hail seems to be the primary risk, with -10 to -30 CAPE ranging from 600 to 800 and temps aloft around -12 to -14C. We will continue to update as new data become available and the synoptic pattern evolves. There is some uncertainty at this time considering the evolution of the overall pattern, but unsettled weather could continue into next week. Temperatures will generally remaining above seasonal norms./SAS/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 VFR conditions wl prevail through the TAF period north and central. In the south IFR vsbys were already being observed and IFR/LIFR conditions wl develop by 09Z and prevail until after 13Z before improving to VFR by 15Z. VFR conds wl prevail areawide after 15Z and continue through the end of the TAF period. /22/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 56 77 53 79 / 0 10 0 0 Meridian 53 77 49 78 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 56 77 55 80 / 0 10 0 0 Hattiesburg 56 83 53 81 / 0 10 0 0 Natchez 58 79 56 81 / 0 10 0 0 Greenville 55 72 52 76 / 10 10 0 0 Greenwood 55 75 53 78 / 10 0 0 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ DL/SAS/22