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000
FXUS64 KJAN 240618
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
118 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 909 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

Two complexes were moving south toward the area with storms
continuing to develop. Hi res models have shown the system moving
into the northwest a little faster than previously thought. Did a
quick update to show some slight to chance pops around 12z in the
northwest zones. Storms are continuing to develop as they move
across Arkansas, so may need to bring pops in a little sooner for
the southeast Arkansas counties and a few of the river counties,
but will hold off for now. At this time thunderstorms were
isolated to scattered, although the outflow could have enough
momentum to bring some winds, looking for activity to diminish as
things move into the slightly drier and cooler air.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

Tonight and Tomorrow...

Cloud cover should begin to increase tonight as a frontal boundary
makes it way southeastward towards our region. Conditions will
continue to be quiet through the night for the most part along with
relatively calm winds as well. Low temperatures will be in the low
to mid 60s in northern portions of our region and mid to high 60s in
the southern half. Conditions will begin to switch up tomorrow as
much needed rain will begin to develop along this incoming boundary
layer. Our greater rain chances will be mainly to the west of the
Interstate 55 corridor. These MCS will come in waves starting Sunday
afternoon, losing intensity heading into the evening. Severe
potential on these storms are expected to be very minimal, with the
exception of some occasional heavy downpours and lightning. Flooding
is not expected to be an issue due to our ongoing drought situation.
Nonetheless, high temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s
across the western portions of our CWA and low to mid 90s across the
rest of the region. /LCP/

Sunday Night through Friday...A couple of shortwaves will push into
and through the region Sunday night through Monday night.  With the
available moisture that`ll be present across the forecast area, this
will result in showers and a few storms across the forecast during
this time as a couple of decaying MCSs drop southeast into the area.
Any lingering outflow boundary(ies) over the area associated with
these remnant complexes, will aid in re-firing convection during the
afternoon hours on Monday. The better rain chances will reside
across mainly western portions of the CWA, due to the before
mentioned better moisture. Further east, where a drier airmass
resides, activity will be more scattered to isolated as a result.

Through the remainder of the period, varying west to northwest flow
aloft will setup across the region. This will keep some weak
shortwave energy over the region, which will continue to result in
some small, mainly diurnally-driven, rain chances over the CWA
through Wednesday.  Ridging aloft will build into the region from
the west Thursday into Friday.  This will lessen rain chances over
the forecast area late in the work week.  Highs during the week will
generally range from the lower 80s to around 90.  Lows will range
from the middle 60s to around 70. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 113 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023

VFR conditions will prevail across central Mississippi to start off
the TAF period through 11Z Sunday. Models hint at a frontal
boundary tracking southward across northern TAF sites through 14Z
Sunday bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms across the
Delta around this timeframe. Went ahead and added some MVFR
conditions between 12Z - 18Z Sunday (mainly for KGLH). A few
southern sites (KHBG, and KPIB) could see some low stratus a
little after 12Z Sunday. Other TAF sites will likely see VFR
conditions through the remainder of the period. Some amendments
may be needed as scattered showers and storms move across the
Delta. /CR/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       92  70  86  67 /  20  20  80  50
Meridian      93  68  90  67 /  10  10  50  30
Vicksburg     89  70  83  67 /  30  30  90  50
Hattiesburg   96  70  94  68 /  20  10  40  30
Natchez       90  71  85  67 /  30  20  80  50
Greenville    86  68  81  66 /  40  60  80  40
Greenwood     89  68  83  66 /  30  40  70  40

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

LCP/19/CR