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000
FXUS64 KJAN 170509
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1109 PM CST Fri Nov 16 2018

.UPDATE...
Updated for 06Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF discussion:
VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the next 24 hours.
Skies should remain clear. Winds will be calm overnight and then
out of the south around 5kts tomorrow. /28/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A clear and cool night is expected. No changes needed to the
current forecast. /22/

Prior discussion below:

Tonight and Saturday: Surface high pressure centered along the
northern coastline of the Gulf of Mexico will continue to
encompass the region through the period resulting in clear skies
and light winds. Although temperatures tonight will be below
average for mid November, they will be warmer than the last few
nights, staying well above the freezing mark areawide. Clear
conditions will make for a pleasant Saturday as temperatures
finally warm back to near their average values as the center of
the high begins to slide east, kicking off some light return flow.
/JPM3/

Saturday night through Thursday: Mid level zonal flow will be in
control of the weather pattern at the beginning of the period, but a
weak shortwave moving south through the Plains will try phasing into
the flow pattern by the first of next week. As this occurs, its weak
surface cold front will approach the area Monday. Weak low level
convergence may support a few showers, but these should be few and
far between as the system will remain moisture starved.

While the passing frontal boundary will support a limited cool down
it should be brief as the surface high pressure ridge quickly moves
east of the area in response to mid level ridging Wednesday.

A more potent mid level feature will approach the area in the
southern stream Wednesday night into Thursday. As the system
approaches the upper TX coast, surface cyclogenesis along the
coastal baroclinic zone will lead to low pressure formation and
isentropic rains breaking out over mainly southern portions of the
forecast area late Wednesday night into Thursday morning./26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       39  67  41  66 /   0   0   2   2
Meridian      36  66  39  67 /   0   0   2   2
Vicksburg     39  68  43  67 /   0   0   2   2
Hattiesburg   37  67  40  67 /   0   0   2   1
Natchez       40  68  44  68 /   0   0   2   2
Greenville    40  67  44  65 /   0   0   2   4
Greenwood     41  65  42  65 /   0   0   2   2

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&


$$

28