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000
FXUS64 KJAN 270547
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1247 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020

.UPDATE...
Updated for 06Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF discussion:
A broad swath of IFR cigs is expanding southward slightly into the
region...with another patch blooming over JAN/HKS this evening.
May be able to cut back the mention earlier for JAN and HKS before
dawn... but another group of IFR cigs is also spreading just to
the northeast of the current concern on sat imagery this evening.
Models keep those IFR cigs to the northwest into the
morning...while expanding IFR/MVFR and showers in from the south
later tomorrow. May be able to get back to IFR and a few breaks
after 18z in the central terminals...but precip will continue to
increase in coverage in the overnight hours.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Strong ridging aloft will remain wedged into the region from the
east overnight.  This will maintain the overall quiet conditions
across the forecast area in the process.  With some clouds festering
across the region, cool conditions will persist as lows range from
the middle 50s to lower 60s.

The ongoing forecast for tonight is in good shape.  Therefore, no
major changes will be made on this evening`s update. /19/

Prior discussion below:

Tonight and Tuesday:

We`re currently sitting between an upper level ridge centered to
the east and a digging trough over the desert SW. Between now and
Tuesday, the overall weather pattern over our CWA will change
very little. Our surface flow is generally weak and out of the
northeast with upper level flow out of the southwest. The trough
out to the west will deepen and develop a cutoff low, and
Hurricane Zeta will move over the Yucatan and skirt the upper
ridge which is over the eastern GOM. By tomorrow afternoon, rain
chances will be on the increase as tropical moisture moves into
the area. PWs will be on the rise to above 2" by tomorrow evening
over central and southern MS. Scattered showers and storms will
then move into the area from the southeast. /10/

Tuesday night through next weekend:

Hurricane Zeta and the interaction with a strong southern stream
low will be the focus for the start of this period. Strong
moisture transport east of the powerful low moving into the
Southern Plains and well in advance of the hurricane will support
increasing rainfall by Tuesday afternoon and going through Tuesday
night over much of the ArkLaMiss region. The long duration of
this rainfall may support a widespread soaking before the heavier
rain directly associated with Zeta arrives - which should be
mostly over eastern MS based on the most recent NHC forecasts.
With this in mind, have introduced a limited threat for localized
flash flooding in the HWO. The wildcard in this scenario will be
how much rain can fall ahead of Zeta as that will possibly make
antecedent conditions worse for subsequent heavy rainfall. Will
hold off on a flash flood watch for now. In terms of wind, the
smaller system and forecast minimal strength of the system should
help to mitigate the inland wind threat, but forecast confidence
has increased some that locations along the I-59 corridor will see
gusts in the 40 to 50 mph range and have added a limited strong
wind threat in the HWO.

Zeta is still forecast to zip off to the northeast as it gets
absorbed by the westerlies Thursday. Dry and seasonably cool air
will move into the forecast area in its wake and as we go into
next weekend, and it is possible that a stronger push of cooler
air will move in by the end of the weekend. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       59  80  67  76 /   0  50  70  85
Meridian      59  82  68  77 /   0  55  68  80
Vicksburg     58  77  64  77 /   0  37  64  88
Hattiesburg   62  83  71  79 /   0  76  69  86
Natchez       60  79  67  77 /   0  50  66  89
Greenville    54  69  57  73 /   0  17  56  86
Greenwood     54  75  62  75 /   0  17  58  84

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&


$$

HJS