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000
FXUS64 KJAN 231950
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
250 PM CDT Thu May 23 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Quiet weather pattern remains over the region and a
forecast of persistence is the best way to go. So, really no changes
from what has been previously forecast with this new package. Only
forecast concern is the morning stratus clouds and patchy fog (over
the SE). Just wanted to make note of the anomalous mid/upper level
high that`s over our region. With H5 heights of mb, this fits
with record height values for this time of year. Thus, not
surprising we`ve been consistently running in the 90-94 degree
range. /CME/

Friday night through Next Week...
All guidance has been pretty much the same over the last couple
of days and will generally stay that way the rest of the week and
into the extended forecast. Hot and dry conditions are still the
main concern especially Friday-Sunday. Some climatology guidance
shows 500mb heights reaching near or at 594mb for days Friday
through Sunday. That is an all time record height level at 500mb
for our CWA during this time. Max temperatures for those days are
peaking between 93-98 degrees in some locations. Nothing will be
added into the HWO at this time seeing as how these values doesn`t
quite meet our heat advisory criteria due to afternoon mixing and
temps/humidity combo keeping us short of the necessary criteria.

For the upcoming work week, conditions will remain hot and dry for
much of the beginning of the week. Model guidance shows a boundary
pushing though Wednesday afternoon bringing in some possible
showers and or thunderstorms. A ridge will still persist some but
will flatten just a tad allowing for heights to drop slightly
and making way for some possible convection to roll through along
with some northeasterly flow as a small trough tries to build in.
Models are in some sort of agreement but newer 12Z guidance backs
off precipitation some at these times in the extended forecast so
some PoPs were accounted for next Wednesday-Thursday but aren`t
really high as there are still uncertainties that far out into
the forecast so continue to monitor for updates. /JNE/



&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:
VFR conditions will prevail for most of this TAF period. Like
previous mornings, low stratus/fog development will be the focus.
Won`t stray too much from persistence and will bring in IFR/LIFR
conditions in the far SE by 09z, then into JAN/HKS by 10z, then
GLH around 11z. Most of this will be ceilings, but PIB/HBG should
have a repeat of the fog and a mix of 0.5 to 2sm vis reduction.
Improvements will occur between 12-14z with VRF conditions
returning for Friday. /CME/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       69  93  69  94 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      70  94  71  96 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     70  90  70  91 /   0   1   0   0
Hattiesburg   69  93  69  94 /   0   1   0   0
Natchez       70  91  70  92 /   0   1   1   0
Greenville    72  92  71  93 /   0   1   1   0
Greenwood     70  92  71  92 /   0   1   1   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&


$$

JAN/CME