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596
FXUS64 KJAN 142056
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
356 PM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Tuesday:

Considerably less convection over the area this afternoon
compared to yesterday. What is out is there at the moment is
confined to the axis of maximum 0-3km theta-e across central MS-
northeast LA while the frontal boundary is lagging behind over
northern MS. The HRRR has been showing the late start to this
convection, but indicates an uptick in coverage over the south
from now until early evening. Convection only expected over the
far south Tuesday as the front spreads drier air into much of the
region overnight.

Heat indices having a hard time reaching advisory criteria this
afternoon as expected higher dewpoints never materialized. Will,
therefore, cancel the current heat advisory. Will keep the far south
in a limited category in the HWO for heat Tuesday as heat indices
flirt with 105 ahead of the boundary. /GG/

Wednesday through Monday:

Again, not much has changed with the current forecast reasoning
through the upcoming weekend. Model guidance remains in fairly
decent agreement, even with regards to the area of low pressure in
the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Some slight adjustments to
temperatures or other elements have been made, but the consensus
blend of guidance looks to handle the general features well. Drier
air in the wake of a "cold" front will keep POPs confined to the
Gulf Coast through the back half of the work week, but then
increasing humidity and chances for heavy rain are expected to
return as the ridge breaks down and an area of low pressure moves
north to the Gulf Coast.

Per the latest National Hurricane Center outlook, this broad area of
showers and storms currently over the Bay of Campeche in the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico has a 70 percent chance for developing
into a Tropical Depression during the next 5 days. The latest GFS,
CMC, and ECMWF deterministic runs depict an elongated and unbalanced
low pressure system with a displaced band of heavier rain and a
corridor of stronger winds between the center of the low and the
area of high pressure expected to be located off the east coast of
Florida during the weekend time frame. These broad systems are hard
to predict in fine detail, but the environment will generally
support some organization over the next few days, and the model
guidance has general agreement for how this one may evolve. The
potential for tropical development will continue to be monitored,
but there is increasing confidence for a wave of heavy rain
potential and possible strong winds to affect the central Gulf Coast
between Friday to Sunday regardless of how the system evolves. Stay
tuned for updates throughout the week, especially if traveling along
the Gulf Coast late this week and early next week. /NF/

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF discussion:

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Isolated showers
and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon over central and
south MS and linger into the early evening. Where storms occur,
brief IFR conditions and gusty winds can be expected. /GG/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       72  95  70  90 /  20   4   2   7
Meridian      70  95  66  89 /  19   5   3   6
Vicksburg     72  95  72  93 /  14   3   2   7
Hattiesburg   72  95  71  92 /  28  16   6  12
Natchez       73  95  72  93 /  21  11   3  10
Greenville    71  93  70  89 /   5   1   2   4
Greenwood     70  93  68  89 /   0   1   2   5

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&


$$

NF/GG