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000
FXUS64 KJAN 230236 AAB
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
936 PM CDT Sat Sep 22 2018

.UPDATE...
Updated for evening discussion.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The cold front is now stalling from the ArkLaTex through the
ArkLaMiss Delta and northeastward across the Mid South. Anafrontal
stratiform light rain is ongoing across much of Arkansas, NW
Louisiana, and parts of NW Mississippi. Ahead of the front,
convection remains active across the Golden Triangle. Elsewhere,
most precip has now tapered off and there are a few breaks in the
clouds as well. Through the overnight, storms over the
northeastern part of the forecast area will continue lifting
northeastward and out of the area. Light showers, and perhaps an
isolated storm, will remain possible across the Delta closer to
the front. Over the southeastern half of the area, a lull is
expected with the loss of daytime instability and as the best
mid/upper level forcing remains north and west of the area. Some
minor tweaks were made to forecast POP/Wx to account for current
radar trends, but otherwise no significant changes were made to
the forecast. /DL/

Prior discussion below:

Tonight through Sunday night: Mid afternoon water vapor imagery
and RAP analysis showed the circulation around a low in the
northern Gulf and a weak shortwave over northeast Texas. The low
in the Gulf was helping some drier air aloft spill over into east
Mississippi from Alabama while the shortwave over Texas was aiding
convection along a stalled front just northwest of our CWA. This
will lead to a greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms
continuing into the evening over the western half of our CWA. The
convection will see a distinct diurnal trend over much of our CWA
this evening but due to the proximity of the stalled boundary and
the approaching weak shortwave, convection in our northwest will
likely continue through Sunday. Mid afternoon surface analysis had
an 1011mb low over northeast Texas with the old stalled front
meandering across the Arkansas/Louisiana state line and then back
across northwest Mississippi. The surface low will linger over
Texas into Monday while gradually weakening while the shortwave
over Texas tracks northeast across our delta region Sunday. Wl
still have a very moist airmass in place with PWATs greater than
two inches Sunday and the combination of daytime heating and the
shortwave will lead to the greatest coverage of storms across the
northwest half of the CWA again. The rain and associated cloud
cover will hold afternoon high temperatures to near 80F while
highs over east Mississippi will top out near 90F again.

Monday through Friday: Come Monday wl still have our moist airmass
with PWATs in excess of two inches and a deep but somewhat light
southerly-southwesterly flow. Warmer than normal temperatures
will continue across the whole CWA and mainly diurnally driven
convection. Scattered to numerous coverage of storms is expected
both Monday and Tuesday. Models appear to be in a little better
agreement this afternoon that upper level troughing will deepen
over the central CONUS and support a cold front dropping into our
CWA Wednesday. Models do differ on timing and how far south the
cold front will push through our CWA with the Canadian blowing the
front south our CWA by Thursday morning. Consensus is slower and
wetter for our CWA until Friday. Thus, the chance for rain will
increase Wednesday ahead of the front and continue into Thursday
before drier air and surface high pressure move into our CWA from
the north. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF discussion:
Scattered SHRA/TSRA across the area continue to pose the potential
for brief gusty winds and categorical reductions. The main concern
for this activity through the night will be west of the JAN/GTR
area including the ArkLaMiss Delta. Otherwise, MVFR ceilings will
likely persist throughout much of the TAF period at GLH and spread
into the GWO area by Sun morning, with occasional reductions to
IFR possible as a front remains in the area. Outside of GLH/GWO,
VFR conditions will prevail this evening, with brief reductions to
MVFR possible around daybreak Sunday. After limited shower
activity during the morning hours, redevelopment of SHRA/TSRA is
expected in the afternoon hours with the greatest potential for
being impacted again at sites over the northwest half of the area.
/DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       71  88  71  87 /  17  43  34  54
Meridian      70  91  71  88 /  13  19  24  52
Vicksburg     71  87  72  88 /  19  71  54  58
Hattiesburg   71  91  71  89 /  10  51  22  61
Natchez       70  87  72  86 /  16  61  40  65
Greenville    68  81  70  85 /  60  63  44  61
Greenwood     72  85  71  85 /  51  73  61  61

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&


$$