Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 161752 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1152 AM CST Sat Feb 16 2019

Updated for 18Z aviation discussion


18Z TAF discussion:

Tricky aviation forecast for this package, particularly for
locations along and south of the I-20 corridor. In the latter
areas, some breaking of the low level frontal inversion (and quick
improvement of ceilings) is expected through the afternoon. In
short, at JAN/HKS/NMM/MEI/PIB/HBG there could be some brief breaks
to VFR flight cats this afternoon, although ceilings are expected
to build back in this evening and evolve from MVFR down to
IFR/LIFR by late in the night. Farther north, GLH/GWO/GTR are now
mainly IFR, but should improve to MVFR for a time this afternoon
before falling back to IFR later on this evening. A warm front
moving back in from the south tonight into early tomorrow will
cause surface winds to veer around from north to northeast to
eventually south and southwest by early tomorrow. Some vis
reductions will be possible as moisture comes back from the
south, but at this point no dense fog is anticipated. Otherwise,
expect isolated to scattered showers to come into GLH/GWO areas
this evening and overspread most of the region from late tonight
into tomorrow with mainly IFR flight cats across the board from
daybreak until noon tomorrow. No heavy precipitation is expected
within this TAF cycle. /BB/



Morning update discussion:

An interesting evolution in surface fronts will be going on
around the forecast area over the next 24 to 36 hours, although
today is still expected to remain dry (aside from a few sprinkles
or patches of drizzle). A cold front coming in from the northwest
overnight, and currently pushing the the Southeast Mississippi
Pine Belt, will only get a bit farther toward the coast today
before stalling. Thereafter, expect the boundary to be returning
north (as a warm front) through the bulk of the region between
later tonight and tomorrow morning, before another cold front
pushes in from the northwest late tomorrow into tomorrow night. A
few temporary breaks in the lower cloud shield are possible this
afternoon and this may allow temperatures to peak near previously
forecasted values (ranging from the upper 40s in the Arklamiss
Delta to the upper 60s in the SE MS Pine Belt). However, there is
definitely a chance these maximum temperatures could be too warm,
especially if clouds remain thick. For this update I reduced highs
only 1 to 2 degrees, but may need to cut some more at midday if
it looks like cloud cover will hang in tight and thick. Otherwise,
expect rain chances to increase tonight, starting in the
northwest. Fortunately, rain tonight through tomorrow is not
expected to be heavy or produce any hazardous weather concerns.

Prior discussion below:

Today and Tonight...A cold front continues to make its way southeast
through the forecast area this morning, accompanied by a narrow band
of showers and some isolated showers/patchy drizzle in its wake.
Through the course of the morning, the front and this associated
shower activity will steadily make their way east southeast and
eventually out of the forecast area.  Behind the front, cooler drier
air will filter south into the region.  Under mostly cloudy skies,
highs this afternoon will range from the upper 40s north to around
70 south where the front will eventually stall today.

Through the course of tonight, the once stalled front will begin to
lift back north through the forecast area.  Increasing isentropic
upglide over the area in the front`s wake, in addition to a
disturbance aloft moving into the region early Sunday morning, will
result in light showers developing across the CWA, primarily after
midnight.  Under cloudy skies, lows overnight will range from the
middle 40s to lower 60s, with some patchy fog possible across
namely Southeast Mississippi. /19/

Sunday through Friday: An active and wet weather pattern is still
expected through much of the long term. By Tuesday a threat of flash
flooding and river flooding will exist an abnormally moist airmass
contributes to persistent rainfall across the region.

Come Sunday subtropical ridging will begin to strengthen over the
eastern Gulf while troughing aloft deepens over the western CONUS.
This will result in our winds aloft backing to the southwest through
the day as a weak surface low moves across the Ozarks and Tennessee
valley dropping a cold front into our CWA. Rain chances will increase
Sunday ahead of the cold front and despite the lack of upper level
support, the cold front looks to stall Sunday night just south of
our CWA. Thus, the rain will taper off Sunday evening as drier air
filters into the region behind it. Rain chances will begin to
increase back across our CWA Monday night as isentropic ascent
strengthens downstream of a closed low developing near the Four
Corners region. PWATs will surge above an inch and a half ahead of
the cold front Sunday but will get knocked down below a half inch by
Monday morning. PWATs will increase Monday through Tuesday and be
above an inch and three quarters by Tuesday evening. Rain chances
will increase Monday night and Tuesday as the stalled frontal
boundary returns north north as a warm front. Several disturbances
embedded in the upper flow wl help develop a surface low over the
western Gulf Tuesday that models suggest will move northeast across
our CWA Wednesday. This low will leave a boundary across our CWA
that rain will continue to develop along through Thursday. A
prolonged period of rain across the same area Monday night through
Thursday is expected with model run QPF still showing three to five
inches. Models still differ where the heaviest rain will fall for
the end of the week but depict another closed low dropping over the
desert southwest going into the weekend. Persistent southwest flow
aloft maintaining an abnormally moist airmass across the region
looks to result in the continuation of heavy rain potential across
our region this weekend. /22/


Jackson       55  54  69  42 /   8  31  61  57
Meridian      58  52  71  45 /  11  27  61  69
Vicksburg     52  52  67  42 /   9  35  55  37
Hattiesburg   68  61  75  50 /  13  21  48  59
Natchez       59  57  69  43 /   8  31  59  45
Greenville    45  46  61  39 /  13  43  43  16
Greenwood     48  48  63  40 /  10  43  55  36





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