Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 241103 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
603 AM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

Updated for 12Z aviation discussion


12Z TAF discussion:
a mix of MVFR and VFR cigs were observed at 11Z with a southerly
wind 10kts or greater. MVFR cigs are still expected to prevail
12Z-16Z before improving. VFR conds are expected to prevail
areawide after 16Z. Isold -SHRA activity in vcty of GLH wl spread
east across the HWY 82 corridor through the aftn. MVFR cigs are
expected to dvlp tonight as a weak cold front drops into the area.
IFR/LIFR conds wl be psbl at HBG by 10Z. /22/


Today and tonight: early morning surface analysis had an 1001mb low
centered over eastern Kansas and an 1024mb high centered over the
Florida Peninsula ridging back to the west across the northern Gulf.
The pressure gradient between the two was maintaining a stout
southerly wind across our CWA that will hold temperatures well above
normal today and increase moisture over our region. Early morning
water vapor imagery showed a shortwave tracking east across the
Central Plains that will help the surface low track east across the
mid Mississippi river valley this afternoon and then across the
Tennessee valley tonight. Both of these features will weaken through
tonight and drop a weak cold front into our CWA that is still
expected to stall near the Interstate 20 corridor by Sunday morning.
Local radars were showing a few very light returns over southeast
Arkansas. This activity is expected to expand across the Highway 82
corridor today and then farther south after midnight tonight when
the cold front drops in. Rain amounts are expected to remain light
through the period. The light rain and clouds should hold
temperatures in the 70s across the north today but lower 80s can be
expected elsewhere. The cooler air in the wake of the cold front
tonight will allow our northern zones to bottom out in the 50s but
morning lows will be well above normal elsewhere, in the lower 60s.

Sunday through Saturday. No big changes to the forecast at this
point. The main event still looks to be Late Tuesday-Thursday.
Model timing still isn`t totally synced at this time. Continuing
to lean toward the slower solution, with the heaviest rainfall to
west of the area into the far western zones. Added flooding
possible along with severe to the HWO. Not confident in the
severe chances with variations in timing, but flooding/flash
flooding chances still look good. A weak wave swings across the
area, with some pretty good speed shear. Model soundings from
the southwest show some decent instability, lapse rates were not
great but strong thunderstorms with a wind risk seem possible.

A boundary will sink south towards the coast on Sunday bringing
some more light rain to the region through Sunday. As a ridge
builds in from the Gulf and pushes the slow moving boundary north
and east, rain will shift out of the area. The northeast corner of
the cwa will have a good chance of rain for Monday. Looks like
warm advection rain will hang around through Tuesday, so kept a
slight chance for the entire area. With slower timing,
thunderstorms may not move into the northwest/western zones before
early Wednesday, but for now will keep the wording in for Tuesday
night. Low level jet picks up, so thunderstorms should be good. A
weak upper wave and several surface lows move along the front
keeping the heavy rain going and strong thunderstorm chances
through Wednesday with much of the same Thursday. The boundary
moves and a high pressure settles in for next weekend.
Temperatures may be a little warm for the early part of the week
with clouds and rain hanging around. Guidance temperature values
were good.


Jackson       82  62  78  62 /  10  22  23  15
Meridian      83  62  80  60 /  10  24  25  17
Vicksburg     81  62  78  61 /  12  22  19  16
Hattiesburg   82  62  82  61 /   4   9  14   6
Natchez       82  62  81  62 /   5  11  15   5
Greenville    76  55  69  58 /  32  28   9  18
Greenwood     76  56  72  59 /  28  32  10  21





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