Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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664
FXUS63 KLMK 161828
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
228 PM EDT Sun May 16 2021

.Short Term...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 224 PM EDT Sun May 16 2021

A weak warm front slowly drifting across Kentucky will be the main
focus of shower and thunderstorm chances during the short term. This
evening should be mostly dry other than perhaps a few sprinkles.
Overnight showers and storms will develop from the Plains into the
Midwest ahead of low pressure over Kansas and a low level jet poking
northward into Missouri. Some shower and elevated thunder activity
will develop eastward along the warm front, with the best chances for
rain locally being over southern Indiana and north central Kentucky.

Not much will change tomorrow as the surface boundary continues to
slowly plod through the area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
will continue, with the greatest concentration again over southern
Indiana and north central Kentucky. Plenty of instability for
thunder but mid-level capping and weak flow should keep convection
in check.

Guidance temperatures for tomorrow take the mercury into the 75-80
degree range for much of the region, but that may be tempered by
clouds and showers. Will go a bit under guidance on the cool side of
the warm front, more in the 70 to 75 degree range.

&&

.Long Term...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 225 PM EDT Sun May 16 2021

Monday Night through Tuesday...The same weak surface boundary will
continue to be in play across the OH Valley through this period with
light rain chances. Upper level ridging will keep thunder chances
low with model soundings showing up to 300 J/kg around sunset Monday
night and again during peak heating Tuesday. Total rainfall
accumulations through this period appear to be less than 0.25 inches
with the higher amounts falling in our northwestern counties west of
I-65 and north of the Parkways. Cloudy skies will continue to limit
diurnal swings in temperatures with Tuesday morning lows in the
upper 50s to low 60s and afternoon highs in the 70s.

Wednesday and Beyond...By Wednesday, the cut-off low over the
Central Plains will slowly fill and become absorbed into the upper
flow setting up a meridional pattern over the CONUS with West Coast
troughing and East Coast ridging. Wednesday may still see slight
chances of light rain as enough moisture exists within the warm
sector coupled with weak isentropic lift along SSW flow. But by
Thursday, ridging in the east builds in impressively with model
ensemble percentiles suggesting heights reaching above the 90th
percentile throughout this timeframe. This will result in a warming
trend with dry conditions and above normal temperatures with highs
Wednesday in the low 80s gradually rising each day until the weekend
when highs top off in the upper 80s.

&&

.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 123 PM EDT Sun May 16 2021

The remainder of the afternoon and into the evening hours will be
VFR and mostly dry at the airports. Tonight showers and storms will
develop from the southern Plains to the Midwest, with a few showers
reaching eastward north of a warm front in western Kentucky. There
has been a northward trend in the placement of these showers, and
their associated low ceilings, so at this time will keep the
HNB/SDF/LEX TAFs at VCSH and low end VFR.

Scattered showers can`t be ruled out tomorrow, especially in the
afternoon, but for the most part it should be a good day with the
majority of the unsettled weather remaining just to our west and
north.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

Short Term...13
Long Term...CG
Aviation...13



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