Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 221850

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
250 PM EDT Sun Jul 22 2018

.Short Term...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 243 PM EDT Sun Jul 22 2018

Much like yesterday, the region sits under the influence of a large,
anomalous upper level low. The clouds have managed to keep
temperatures cool this afternoon, with most spots hovering around
the mid 70 to upper 70s at this hour. Precipitation coverage has
also ramped up within the past couple of hours in response to
daytime heating, and should stay widespread through sunset. After
sunset, we`ll see a gradual tapering down of precipitation from west
to east, though the Lexington metro/Bluegrass region may see
isolated showers through the entire night.

Tomorrow will still feature a lot of clouds as the upper level low
wobbles slowly to the south, though precipitation coverage should be
more limited and confined to areas generally east of I-65. Like
today, we`ll see an uptick in the precipitation coverage in the
afternoon when daytime heating is at its strongest.


.Long Term...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 245 PM EDT Sun Jul 22 2018

Upper trof axis will stay fairly close to the I-75 corridor into
Wednesday, though the closed low will slowly fill. Could see a sharp
gradient in POPs with 50-60% coverage in east central Kentucky, but
only a slight chance (if even that) along and west of I-65.

Broad trofiness will lingerlate in the week even after the pattern
de-amplifies. In terms of sensible wx expect fairly typical summer
conditions with afternoon/evening storm chances each day, but temps
running just a tick below climo.

By the latter half of the weekend, expect precip chances and
intensity to ramp back up again, as a sharper upper trof swings into
the Mississippi Valley and estabishes a good Gulf moisture tap.


.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 116 PM EDT Sun Jul 22 2018

IFR/MVFR stratus and rain showers are accompanying a strong upper
level low near the region. We should see ceilings gradually lift to
VFR by late afternoon, and rain shower coverage should begin to
diminish after sunset. Ceilings will steadily drop during the
overnight hours, and we should see IFR/MVFR ceilings return late
tonight into tomorrow morning. The low ceilings are expected to
persist through most of the morning tomorrow.




Short Term...DM
Long Term...RAS
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