Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 221050

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
650 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2019

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Short Term...(Today and tonight)
Updated at 305 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2019

Progressive upper shortwave trof over the Upper Midwest will push
eastward into the Great Lakes by tonight, and drive a cold front
into the Ohio Valley. We`ll be hot and dry today, with max temps
near 90 one more time. Low humidity and increasingly breezy
conditions could create some grass/brush fire concerns, and we are
currently on the fence as far as a Special Weather Statement to
highlight the increased fire danger.

Cold front and associated precip shield will move into southern
Indiana late tonight, and it will be touch and go for a possible
27th consecutive day without measurable precip at SDF while day 26
is a better bet at LEX. Best precip chances will be after midnight,
but could still be hit and miss especially across Kentucky. SPC has
general thunder outlooked across southern Indiana and north central
Kentucky, but given a lack of CAPE isolated thunder wording is about
all we expect.

Precip shield will really break up on Monday as the front is left
behind by the upper support. Will still support chance POPs Monday
morning but no mention of thunder with instability still absent.
Plenty of cloud cover and cooler NW flow behind the front will limit
the temp recovery Monday afternoon, but we will still be above

.Long Term...(Monday through Saturday)
Updated at 245 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2019

Monday Night - Wednesday Morning...

Sfc high pressure system is expected to gradually slide overhead the
region Monday night in the wake of the exiting cold front. This
system coupled with zonal flow aloft will allow for dry conditions
to persist through Wednesday. Afternoon temps should also feel quite
pleasant during this stretch, with highs expected to only reach the
upper 70s to low 80s.

Wednesday Afternoon - Thursday...

By Wednesday afternoon, a cold front extending from MI to AR will
begin edging toward our region, causing chances of precipitation to
return. This system is expected to be short lived though, and some
models even have it eroding as it enters the region. Will continue
to carry chance PoPs over southern IN and north central KY, as those
locations seem to have the best support and chance of seeing
precipitation at this time. Otherwise, look for lows in the lower
60s on Wednesday night ahead of the front, with highs Thursday in
the low 80s.

Friday - Sunday...

By Friday, the SE CONUS ridge looks to build once again and is
expected to remain throughout the weekend. Unfortunately, this will
cause afternoon highs to rise back into the upper 80s to low 90s, so
don`t put your summer clothes away quite yet!


.Aviation...(12Z TAF Issuance)
Updated at 645 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2019

Look for dry and VFR conditions through the day and much of tonight
as S-SW flow increases ahead of an approaching cold front.
Expect a solid 12-15 kt with prevailing gusts either side of 20 kt.
Winds stay up this evening with lowering and thickening cloud bases.
Frontal precip band gets into HNB around midnight and SDF toward
Monday morning. Carried a PROB30 for TS/CB at HNB, but thunder
potential is likely to fade out before it reaches SDF. Just went
ahead with VCSH there, and in LEX just before dawn. Wind shift to
westerly and some post-frontal MVFR stratus will be in play for the
SDF planning period. HNB could go fuel-alternate at least briefly,
but that is beyond the scope of this TAF issuance.




Short Term...RAS
Long Term...SSC
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