831
FXUS63 KLMK 160517
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
117 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Widespread showers can be expected overnight. Locally heavy
  rain may cause minor flooding, especially in southern and
  eastern sections of central Kentucky.

* Another breezy system moves through the region midweek, but with
  less moisture to work with.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 944 PM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025

Moderate to heavy rain is streaming across the region this evening,
thanks to a LLJ enhancing our moisture transport and PWATs. VAD wind
profiles show winds around 40-50kts overhead, with weaker winds
aloft to the west, evident of the core of LLJ winds currently riding
along the I-65 corridor. As the sfc low spins off to our northeast
overnight, the LLJ will shift east, allowing the sfc winds to relax
enough to let go of the Wind Advisory. The advisory has been trimmed
of counties mainly west of I-65, but will continue until 06z for
counties to the east.

The bigger concern for tonight will be flooding issues, as
persistent moderate rainfall will continue to stream northward from
Tennessee up into our forecast area. Rainfall rates could be heavy
at times, but training showers will continue to cause some hydro
issues as we get into later tonight. The Flood Watch will continue
without any adjustments for now.

Overall forecast is in good shape, so no changes are planned as of
now.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 343 PM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025

Dynamic storm system continues across a broad section of the central
and eastern CONUS, as a southern Stream trof over the southern
Plains phases with a deep closed low over Lake Superior. Secondary
low now developing over northern Mississippi is supporting
significant severe convection over the Deep South, and the biggest
question mark is how far northward severe storms can develop into
the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. Extensive rain shield continues to
push north across Kentucky, with quite a few spots picking up just
over 1 inch of rain in about 3 hrs. Drying, possibly associated with
a warm sector, is now starting to surge northward into the Lake
Cumberland area, and how far north that warm sector expands will
determine our severe weather risk for the rest of this afternoon and
evening.

SPC slight risk covers most of the Louisville CWA, but our
confidence in that is medium at best.  Could get a decent
instability surge into areas east of Interstate 65 going into this
evening, but it`s still uncertain how far west the favorable
environment is pulled ahead of the sfc low. The window closes as the
low lifts northward across Kentucky this evening, then finally exits
between 03-06Z. Mainly a gusty wind threat but spin-up tornadoes
can`t be ruled out.

Heavy rain and flooding are greater threats as a swath of QPF
approaching 2 inches in 6 hrs will lay out from SSW to NNE somewhere
in central Kentucky. Heavier rainfall, especially if it`s repeated,
could result in localized flash flooding. Flood Watch will continue
to ride as is, but the threat is likely to diminish after 6Z.

Winds are not quite as robust as previously advertised, but we
continue to see near 40 mph gusts mixed down in an otherwise
stratiform rain shield. Therefore will continue to roll with the
Wind Advisory for the entire CWA.

Unsettled wx continues on Sunday as the upper trof hangs back.  Cold
pool showers and steady or slowly falling temps in the 50s will be
the flavor of the day, with limited recovery even after precip
tapers off in the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 343 PM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025

Broad trough axis will run from the Great Lakes to the Gulf at the
start of the period. As it shifts east, we`ll move into a quieter
weather period for at least a couple of days. Another disturbance
approaches midweek and then another for the start of next weekend.
That midweek system has more potential for some gusty gradient
winds, but not as big a threat for severe weather. Also not as much
moisture to work with given its quick movement and lack of
meridional pull. The Saturday system looks to be a quick mover as
well.

Temperatures will be near normal in the wake of the 3 systems this
period, but quickly moderate to above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 114 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

Though a center of surface low pressure near IND at the start of the
TAF period will race off to the northeast, a lingering upper trough
over the Mississippi Valley and high sfc-700mb RH will continue to
support scattered showers until midday. MVFR ceilings will dominate,
especially at SDF/BWG. Despite the surface low pulling well off to
our northeast today, winds will still become somewhat gusty in a
tight pressure gradient, especially this afternoon.

Showers will taper off this afternoon as the upper trough axis
passes overhead, though low clouds will linger beneath a low level
inversion.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Wind Advisory until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ early this morning for
     KYZ027>031-033>043-045>049-053>057-062>067-071>078-081-
     082.
     Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ this morning for
     KYZ033>043-045>049-053>057-062>067-070>078-081-082.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CJP
SHORT TERM...RAS
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...13