Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 231310
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
910 AM EDT Mon May 23 2022

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 907 AM EDT Mon May 23 2022

Conditions across central Kentucky and southern Indiana are cloudy
and cool this morning with rain showers mainly confined to areas
east of I-65. Current water vapor imagery shows a rich plume of low-
level moisture advecting northward into the region, with the back
edge of the saturated plume located just west of the Mississippi
River at this time. 09Z surface analysis depicts high pressure over
central Wisconsin with a stationary front lazily draped across the
deep- and mid-south regions. NE flow and cloud cover should persist
throughout most of the day today, keeping temperatures considerably
below normal for this time of year. Shower chances will persist at
least through the early afternoon for most areas along and east of I-
65, with the greatest amounts of rain expected to fall in the Lake
Cumberland region.

Otherwise, the forecast looks to be on track at this hour. Have
freshened up the grids by incorporating latest obs, but no major
changes needed at this time.

&&

.Short Term...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 255 AM EDT Mon May 23 2022

Current surface analysis shows broad area of high pressure centered
over the Upper Midwest building into the OH Valley, while across the
Deep South a wave of low pressure rides northeast along a stalled
out frontal boundary. Expansive area of clouds associated with the
southern system is streaming into the region early this morning,
with some light rain showers being observed as well across portions
of south- and east-central KY.

As we move through the morning, precip chances will continue for
areas along and south of the Western Kentucky and Bluegrass
Parkways, with precip totals ranging from several hundreths to a
couple tenths of an inch possible. Expect precip shield to then
slide off to the east by late morning/early afternoon as weak mid-
level disturbance exits the area and better moisture is shunted to
the east. Clouds will gradually clear from NW to SE across the area
this evening and into the overnight hours, although will likely
continue to linger over the Lake Cumberland and Bluegrass regions
into Tuesday morning.

Under persistent cloud cover, temperatures will remain on the cooler
side during the day with highs in the mid to upper 60s, about 10
degrees below climatological normals. Low temperatures into Tuesday
morning will be more seasonable, in the lower to mid 50s.

.Long Term...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 249 AM EDT Mon May 23 2022

Low pressure near El Paso Tuesday morning will travel to Kansas City
by Wednesday morning, bringing its eastward-reaching warm front into
central Kentucky early Wednesday. This boundary will bring scattered
showers and a few rumbles of thunder to the region Tuesday night. By
Thursday morning the surface low will be over Lake Superior with
widespread showers and storms in the system`s warm sector Wednesday
and Wednesday night. The best combination of instability and shear
will occur Wednesday afternoon and evening, though deep layer shear
won`t be particularly strong and mid-level lapse rates should be
weak. In addition, there will likely be a fair amount of robust
convection occurring to our south over the Lower Mississippi
Valley. Nevertheless, there`s enough evidence to support a risk of
strong to marginally severe storms here Wednesday afternoon and
evening, with gusty winds the most likely threat given moderate
shear and high wet bulb zero heights.

Widespread showers and embedded thunder will continue on Thursday as
we wait for the upper trough to approach and pass through. Even
though we`ll probably have better shear on Thursday, severe weather
does not look particularly likely with clouds and rain keeping
instability in check. Still something to keep an eye on, though.

Confidence drops off sharply Friday given inter-model and run-to-run
inconsistencies. Cluster analysis shows uncertainty in the
position/timing of the upper trough. Ensemble means are suggesting a
slower passage of the upper trough. Multi-model ensemble favors a
slower progression of the upper trough as well, which may lead to an
increasing chance of showers Friday.

Still cautiously optimistic for dry weather Saturday and Sunday,
though, as heights rise and weak high pressure is expected at the
surface.

&&

.Aviation...(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 640 AM EDT Mon May 23 2022

IMPACTS:

- MVFR CIGs at KBWG currently, spreading to KLEX by early afternoon

DISCUSSION:

Trend for today will be VFR conditions at the northern TAF sites
(KHNB/KSDF) while MVFR CIGs overspread south-central and east-
central KY (KBWG/KLEX) through much of the period. Ceilings will
continue to gradually lower through the morning, with MVFR CIGs
already at KBWG and expected to reach KLEX around 23/15-17Z, then
improve back into VFR range during the evening hours Monday. Model
guidance indicates MVFR CIGs could once again spread to KBWG late
tonight into Tuesday morning. Winds through the period will be out
of the NE with speeds generally around 10 kts.


&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

Update...CSG
Short Term...JML
Long Term...13
Aviation...JML


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