846
FXUS63 KLMK 101054
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
654 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Warm today with increasing clouds and afternoon highs of 75-80
  degrees.

* Scattered showers expected across southern Indiana and north-
  central Kentucky this evening. A few isolated storms are also
  possible.

* Warmer Sunday with highs in the low to mid 80s.

* High uncertainty with the general unsettled weather pattern for
  next week with daily rain chances beginning late Sunday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 336 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Early this morning, conditions are dry in the Lower Ohio Valley. A
band of showers and thunderstorms stretching from Kansas to Michigan
is pushing east/southeast along a cold front. We are already seeing
cirrus spread in from the northwest this morning from the upstream
convection. Expect that trend to continue, with increasing high
clouds this morning and thickening mid-level clouds this afternoon
and evening as the frontal boundary approaches from the northwest.

Today will be warm and breezy with southwesterly winds of 10-20 mph.
Gusts to 25 mph are expected from mid-morning through mid-afternoon.
Temperatures will warm into the mid/upper 70s during the middle of
the afternoon, with a few spots touching 80. The arrival of mid and
high level clouds, and how quickly those clouds thicken, does
introduce more uncertainty as to exactly how warm it gets.

A mid/upper level trough swings east over Ontario and the Great
Lakes today, with the cold front sinking along the Ohio River around
00Z this evening. Scattered showers and a few storms should
accompany the front into southern Indiana and north-central Kentucky
after 5 PM EDT this evening. Instability looks meager due to warm
mid-level air and poor lapse rates.

Tonight, shower activity will diminish and become more isolated in
nature. The mid/upper level trough will lift further northeast,
while the rapidly weakening cold front gets caught between two areas
of high pressure with no upper level support. The boundary
eventually just washes out over south-central KY heading into
Saturday. Cannot completely rule out an isolated shower or storm
over south-central KY Saturday afternoon in the vicinity of what`s
left of the boundary. A lingering moisture axis will be draped
through that region with PW values near or just above 1.0 inch, but
forcing is quite weak.

Mid and upper level ridging amplifies as it builds east over the MS
Valley, OH Valley, and Southeast over the weekend. Expect mainly dry
and warm conditions. Temperatures will vary more from north to south
on Saturday due to that washed out boundary. Afternoon highs will
range from the low to mid 70s in the north to the low 80s near the
TN border. Warm southwest flow redevelops on Sunday ahead of a
stronger area of low pressure over the northern Plains. Afternoon
temperatures will surge into the 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 336 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026

The pattern becomes more active starting Sunday night as a shortwave
moves over the area, providing another opportunity for showers and a
few storms. As this is going on, the persistent ridge over the SE
CONUS slowly drifts to the east as an upper-level trough develops
over the eastern Rockies/Great Plains. This will allow the upper jet
to sit over the region and to our north, acting as a roadway for
multiple disturbances to move by and produce showers and storms.
Southerly/southwesterly flow will continue for us as we stay to the
east of the trough, allowing for well-above average temperatures to
persist into late next week. The alignment of the upper jet will be
important for how much rainfall we experience next week. LREF
guidance has the main core of the upper jet to our north, limiting
the amount of total rainfall we could experience. The current
consensus has most places over the area getting less than 1.00" of
rain next week, but if the placement of the jet drifts south, those
totals could increase.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 653 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026

VFR conditions are expected through at least 00Z Saturday. After 00Z
Saturday, ceilings are forecast to lower to 4-6 kft with the
probability for MVFR gradually increasing late Friday night. Brief
MVFR ceilings appear possible after 03Z Saturday.

Expect high clouds and breezy SW winds today ahead of the frontal
boundary. Mid and lower level clouds will spread in from the
northwest this afternoon and evening as the front approaches. Expect
a broken band of rain showers to move southeast through HNB/SDF/LEX
between 21-05Z. Isolated TSRA are possible, but confidence is too
low to include in the TAF at this time. These rain showers will
diminish with time, with any precip becoming fairly spotty by early
Saturday morning.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...BEN
AVIATION...EBW