Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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378
FXUS63 KLMK 240948
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
548 AM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Short Term...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 AM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

The main weather feature is still the large upper low centered near
the western KY/TN border early this morning. Prime area of forcing
on the eastern side of the cyclone has resulted in a north-south
band of moderate showers east of I-65. These showers will continue
to move north and tend to curl back around the low over southern
Indiana and north-central KY through the rest of the morning hours.
Temperatures are very steady in the low to mid 50s this morning.

Scattered to numerous showers will continue this afternoon as the
upper low rotates east. Forecast soundings do still show modest
elevated instability developing over the southeast forecast area. So
will include a slight chance for thunder south of a Bowling Green to
Richmond line. Could have a few more instances of small hail as well
with any heavier shower or storm.

Shower coverage will diminish quite a bit by this evening, and rain
chances overnight will be limited to the I-75 corridor. Still could
have a few sprinkles further west though. We`ll hold on to low
stratus tonight, with lows in the lower 50s. Wednesday looks largely
dry with central KY and southern IN in between weather systems.
Another upper trough will begin swinging in from the northwest.
Skies look mostly cloudy, with highs rebounding into the mid 60s.

.Long Term...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 304 AM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

A low pressure system is forecast to rotate south of the Bluegrass
State on Thursday. It looks like a decent day, with sunshine at
least over the northern half of the area. Highs will again reach the
mid 60s. A couple models suggest rain from the southern stream
system could spread as far north as Lake Cumberland. But most will
stay dry.

A weak cold front should move through the area sometime on Friday,
but moisture looks rather limited. A band of light rain looks
possible, but not convinced everyone will see precip.

Saturday through Monday look dry and warm as upper ridging builds
over the eastern United States and surface high pressure expands
from the Ohio Valley to the East Coast. By Monday we`ll see
afternoon temperatures well into the 70s...possibly approaching 80.

&&

.Aviation...(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 545 AM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Surface low pressure will trek slowly along the KY/TN border today,
providing for variable winds, eventually becoming northwesterly at
all sites by later this afternoon. Plenty of low-level moisture will
make for periods of MVFR to even IFR conditions this morning and
then again later this evening. Showers will stay in the forecast
until some drier air works in again this evening. So far the showers
have been light enough not to be a problem with vsby...just with
cigs.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

Short Term...EBW
Long Term...EBW
Aviation...RJS



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