Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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279 FXUS65 KPUB 080546 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1146 PM MDT Tue May 7 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - High Fire Danger will return to the San Luis Valley and portions of the southeast plains on Wednesday. - Light snow will continue across the central mountains overnight into Wednesday - Unsettled weather pattern starting Thursday, and lasting through the weekend with light to moderate snow accumulations possible for the higher mountains through Friday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 927 PM MDT Tue May 7 2024 Updated package to allow the Winter Weather Advisory for the central mountains to expire and to end the Red Flag Warning across southern CO for the remainder of the evening. -KT && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 547 PM MDT Tue May 7 2024 Winds are gradually decreasing across the area and have let high wind warnings come down across the San Luis Valley, Southeast mountains and southern I-25 corridor for the remainder of the evening. Otherwise, westerly flow aloft and instability have kept snow showers going across the central mountains though coverage has decreased. Will let Winter Weather Advisories continue for a few more hours this evening. Models show a diminishing trend with snow confined to north of Cottonwood Pass through the overnight hours. May need to monitor trends to see if a brief extension of advisories is needed through midnight. Otherwise, a hard Freeze is expected across northern El Paso county. Have added southern El Paso county to a frost advisory where temperatures between 30 and 35 degrees could produce patchy frost or a light freeze to some locations. Strong westerly flow will remain over the area on Wednesday bringing an increase in winds again across southern portions of the area in the morning. Red Flag Warnings were upgraded with the afternoon package for the San Luis Valley, with portions of the southeast plains remaining in a Fire Weather Watch. Will likely upgrade these to a Red Flag Warning as dew points dry out behind the front and gusty winds in the morning may bring a quick return to critical fire weather conditions before the wind gusts relax some in the afternoon. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 547 PM MDT Tue May 7 2024 Upper low takes shape across the Great Basin as more energy digs westward. Cold front drops through the plains Wednesday night with upslope and gradual moistening expected along the eastern slopes of the southeast mountains. Lift from broad overrunning develops overtop the front through the day on Thursday with rain and snow showers increasing and spreading westward through Friday as the upper low drops southward through southern UT/northern AZ. May end up needing some advisories for elevations above 9000 feet where mountain passes could see some travel impacts. Heaviest snow looks to fall Thursday afternoon and night though Friday will remain unsettled as the system hangs out across the southern UT/northern AZ through Saturday. Convectively enhanced rain and snow showers will redevelop Friday and again on Saturday which could bring some pockets of moderate snowfall to the higher elevations in the afternoon. Uncertainty grows in the longer ranges with how quickly this upper low ejects. EC maintains the upper low across CO into early next week though the flow aloft weakens as the upper low fills and sags southward on Tuesday. This would keep daily showers across the mountains as convective instability regenerates activity each afternoon and evening. Overall though QPF looks light. GFS ejects the system more quickly with drier weather returning by Sunday but another system is poised to drop in from the northwest on Wednesday. Overall temperatures will remain mild with daily showers and thunderstorms over the mountains each day through the remainder of the extended. Fire weather risks will decrease significantly after Wednesday with the cooler conditions, lighter winds and daily precipitation chances in and near the mountains. -KT && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1141 PM MDT Tue May 7 2024 VFR conditions are expected at KALS, KCOS, and KPUB through 24 hours. Winds will primarily be westerly overnight, with gusts to around 30 knots lingering at KCOS for a few more hours. Tomorrow, winds at KALS will remain westerly, KCOS will turn northerly, and KPUB will turn east-northeasterly, with speeds of 10-15 knots. Mid-level clouds will start to build in across all three TAF sites near the end of this forecast period. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM MDT Wednesday for COZ224- 232-233. Freeze Warning until 8 AM MDT Wednesday for COZ084. Frost Advisory until 8 AM MDT Wednesday for COZ085. && $$ UPDATE...KT SHORT TERM...KT LONG TERM...KT AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO