Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 150546
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1246 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An upper ridge will build over the region today, lowering
  precipitation chances while supporting a warming trend.

- A surge of tropical moisture late in the week will likely
  result in multiple days of heavy rainfall and increased flood
  potential.

- WPC has introduced a Day 4 Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall
  for parts of Acadiana into SE LA, while the remainder of the
  region is outlined in a Slight/Marginal Risk on Day 4.

- WPC has also outlined a Slight/Marginal Risk for Excessive
  Rainfall on Day 3 and 5 across parts of the forecast area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Another warm and muggy summer night is ongoing across the northern
Gulf Coast, as we become situated under weak high pressure at both
the surface and aloft building in from the east. As ridging settles
overhead today, it will result in a mainly hot and dry day across
the forecast area. While most areas will see no measurable rainfall
today, a stray shower or two is not totally out of the question
during peak heating hours this afternoon. Best chance for any
convection to get going will be across Acadiana, as upper level high
pressure continues its westward progression and "loosens" the cap
across south-central LA later in the day. Still, main concern today
will be the heat, with minimal precip and mostly sunny skies highs
should have no problem reaching into the mid-90s this afternoon.

Upper ridging will continue to progress westward on Wednesday, while
an upper level weakness moves into the northeastern Gulf on its
tail. This will bring about a transition period from Wednesday
into early Thursday, as we move from a hot and dry airmass to a
more moist and unstable one. Wednesday begins with a bit of
ridging lingering aloft, keeping convection largely at bay for a
bit longer. While isolated diurnal activity is again likely Wed
afternoon, it is not expected to be enough to quell temperatures,
with highs again reaching into the mid to possibly upper 90s.

Wed night into early Thurs, the aforementioned upper level
weakness and associated surface low begin to creep closer to
south-central LA, with NBM painting steadily increasing POPs from
east to west through this period. By Thursday AM, this feature
should be near the north-central Gulf Coast, where it could
potentially linger for a bit into the long term period. This is of
course the same feature that NHC currently gives a 30% chance of
development over the next 48 hours and a 40% chance of development
over the next 7 days. However, focusing on what this feature
could become (messy tropical low, tropical depression, tropical
storm, etc) is rather pointless. What is important, is regardless
of what this features becomes the chance of our region seeing
heavy rainfall, potentially over a couple or several days, is
becoming increasingly more likely and this rainfall is expected to
begin on Thursday. While things could change, it is likely that
the eastern parts of the CWA (particularly lower Acadiana) will
see the best chance of rain on Thursday, which coincides with the
region that WPC has outlined in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for
Excessive Rainfall on Thurs. In addition, the remainder of our LA
parishes have been included in the Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4)
for Excessive Rainfall on Thursday.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Friday into the weekend, the aforementioned tropical low/upper level
weakness/significant rain maker, will likely be lingering over the
north-central Gulf Coast. The exact placement of where this feature
will track remains to be seen however, there continues to be
agreement that regardless of track/development the chances for
heavy rainfall will pick up as we head into the long term period.
NBM paints 60-100% POPs across the entire region both Fri and Sat,
indicating the potential for an elongated period of measurable
rainfall as this features meanders nearby. In addition, WPC has
now outlined Acadiana and the Atchafalaya Basin in a Day 4
Moderate Risk (level 3 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall while the
remainder of the forecast area is included within the Slight Risk
(level 2 of 4) on Friday. On Saturday, roughly the eastern half of
the forecast area has been included in the Day 5 Slight Risk
(level 2 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall, while the western half of
the region is included in the Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4). On the
bright side, this rainfall and associated cloud cover will bring
about slightly below average temperatures for Fri and Sat
afternoon, with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s expected.

By Sunday, rain chances taper back to typical summertime numbers, as
the tropical low moves away/dissipates. A return of scattered
afternoon convection and seasonal temps is expected Sun into Mon.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Only change since the previous TAF package was to add TEMPO groups
for BR at the Acadiana terminals around sunrise. Otherwise, still
expecting light winds and high clouds area-wide today along with a
stray shower or two in the afternoon. No concerns expected.

17

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

High pressure extending across the northern Gulf will maintain
light onshore winds and low seas through tomorrow. The forecast
through the second half of the week will be highly dependent on
the potential tropical development in the eastern Gulf.
Regardless of development, much higher precipitation chances and
increasing winds and seas are expected Thursday through the end of
the week/weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Light southerly winds will maintain dewpoints in the mid to upper
70s through the week. Afternoon minimum relative humidity values
are expected to range from 50 - 70% today and tomorrow. Min RH
values then surge Thurs into the weekend (50-90%) as a plume of
tropical moisture spreads over the area. Mainly dry conditions are
expected today and tomorrow, elevated rain chances on tap from
Thursday through Saturday as a tropical disturbance begins to
influence the region.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  96  74  97  74 /  10   0   0  10
LCH  93  76  93  76 /  20   0  10  10
LFT  92  76  93  76 /  30   0  30  30
BPT  93  74  93  74 /  20   0  10   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...17