Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 181733

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1233 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

VFR conditions will become MVFR as showers and thunderstorms
overspread nern OK and nwrn AR from the southwest this afternoon and
this evening. Another round of showers and thunderstorms expected
late tonight, then dry slot spreads into area from the west as upper
low translates along the KS/OK border. MVFR ceilings will likely end
MLC/FSM/TUL/RVS 12-15z. BVO and nwrn Ar sites best chance of having
MVFR linger. Where ceilings dissipate, they will likely return after
the end of this forecast period with scattered showers and
thunderstorms redeveloping Monday afternoon as upper low moves
through the region.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1119 AM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018/

Water vapor satellite imagery and 12z upper air data indicate a
strong short wave trough translating through AZ this morning with a
much weaker wave over WTX. 15z surface analysis indicates low
pressure centered over sern CO with a trough extending southward
across ern NM into WTX. A frontal boundary was located across NTX,
with associated low level moisture and surface-based instability

Available data continue to indicate area of precipitation over nwrn
TX and swrn OK expanding northeastward this afternoon into nern OK
and nwrn AR. Most of our forecast area still looks to remain north of
NTX frontal boundary, with favorable instability/wind shear to
support severe thunderstorms over NTX. Best chance for severe
thunderstorms this afternoon/early this evening in our area will be far
sern OK nearest the front. Ample elevated instability will support
thunderstorm potential areawide. Another area of showers/
thunderstorms will spread into the area late tonight as
aforementioned progressive short wave translates into the Srn Plains.
The strongest convection with that activity will have the potential
to produce large hail.

Ongoing forecast reflects expectations well, thus only made slight
adjustments to some elements for current trends. Updated forecasts
already sent.




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