Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 230841

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
341 AM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Northeasterly winds continue today and most of tonight for
Central Illinois as a low stalls just to the south at the
confluence of the Ohio River. That low aloft is cut off and making
very slow forward motion, if any. Overnight, it has shown some
signs of brief retrograde. At any rate, the slow motion will
likely keep some cloudiness over the southern half of the state at
the very least. Some precip finally working its way into
southeastern IL up to Interstate 70, having had plenty of lower
level dry air to saturate. Spreading of the precip to the north is
expected through the day, though the northern extent is the bigger
question. NW of the Illinois River Valley is least likely to see
the precip, and as a result will have the higher max temps in the
upper 60s. Further to the south with the cloud cover and precip,
high temps will be confined to the low 60s. Temps only dropping
into the upper 40s overnight as that low makes very slow progress
and keeps the clouds in place with some showers through the


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018
Extended forecast remains largely unchanged. Slight precip
chances mainly in the east continuing through tomorrow with the
slow progress of the upper low into the Appalachians. Forecast
dries out as the GFS comes around to a more ECMWF/NAM solution
with the evolution of the kicker/next system. Previously phasing
the two shorter waves moving into the Plains/Midwest midweek...the
GFS et al are now keeping the two smaller waves separate,
resulting in a drier forecast through the middle of the week.
First pushes through the Great Lakes mid week, although its effect
as a kicker is a little less than, and the current low remains cut
off and a bit wobbly over the mid eastern seaboard. Another wave
dives into the southeast, bringing a wet end of the week to the
Gulf states. Illinois ends up between them and mid week stays dry.
However, that second wave sets up a more northwesterly flow aloft,
and the next trof is a bit more pronounced and brings a shot of
cooler air into the region. Showers move in with the frontal
boundary Thursday night into Friday as the surface low starts to
develop just to the south. Weekend looking dry and warmer on the
other side of precip for Friday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

VFR aviation weather conditions expected to persist across the
central Illinois terminals at least through Monday morning.
However, by the afternoon hours, rainfall and low clouds may begin
so spread into the area from the south. The rain and low cloud
cover is associated with a slow moving area of low pressure
passing south of the area, and confidence in the details with the
rainfall threat and any lower CIGs is low. At this point, feel
best chance for MVFR CIGS will be at KDEC and KCMI. These are also
the most favored terminals for rainfall, but confidence is too
low to go above a VCSH mention at this time. East to northeast
winds will persist through the period, with gusts returning by the
Monday afternoon hours.




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