Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 212013

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
313 PM CDT Mon May 21 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT Mon May 21 2018

Low pressure is currently centered over west central IL with a warm
front extending east along I-74 and cold front working its way
through the Illinois River valley. Considerable cloudiness over the
warm sector in central IL is limiting destabilization this
afternoon, and weak lift seems to be focusing near the IN state line
with a few thunderstorms forming there. Nevertheless, could see
thunderstorms anywhere ahead of the front late this afternoon and
there is a recent trend toward a line of weak radar echoes forming
just east of I-55 which could turn into some thunderstorms. Have
therefore kept a mention of thunderstorms over most of central IL
for late afternoon, ending from west to east through to the IN state
line by 11 p.m.

Overnight, high pressure building into the area along with moist
conditions from significant rainfall up to an inch or two from
Jacksonville to Lacon should allow patchy fog to develop and
spread through much of central IL overnight. Lows expected to
range from 57 in Galesburg to 66 in Lawrenceville. Tuesday should
end up partly cloudy with warm temperatures ranging from around
80 along I-74 to the mid 80s south of I-70, along with light NW


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT Mon May 21 2018

Much drier air should move into central IL through midweek as an
upper level ridge builds over the central U.S. Highs should climb to
the mid and upper 80s midweek through the weekend. A couple of upper
level troughs looks to struggle across the central U.S. ridge late
in the week through the weekend to potentially produce chances of
thunderstorms over portions of central IL, but model inconsistencies
point toward low predictability on any of these features. A more
predictable feature appears to be low pressure developing over the
southeast U.S over the weekend, but this appears to stay out of the
central/SE IL forecast area.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Mon May 21 2018

Ceilings are transitioning to high-end MVFR with daytime heating,
while scattered thunderstorms are likely to develop ahead of an
approaching cold front over the early few hours of the 18Z
forecast period. As the cold front progresses eastward this
afternoon, thunderstorms will migrate east of the central IL
terminals by 22-24Z. VFR cigs expected to return at that point,
however patchy fog overnight will likely result in IFR-MVFR vsby
and cigs, possibly locally worse. Winds becoming SSW 6-10 kts for
the afternoon, then diminishing overnight and eventually turning
NW 5-8 kts Tuesday morning.




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