Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 251131
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
631 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018

Quiet conditions prevailing across the forecast area early this
morning, though an increase in high clouds has begun over the far
western CWA. This is associated with thunderstorm clusters, ahead
of a shortwave over the central Plains. While most of these are
near the Kansas/Missouri border westward, a few storms have
recently developed in northeast Missouri. RAP/HRRR hinting at
some showers possible around Jacksonville as early as 8-9 am,
though a more general increase is likely toward midday with the
daytime heating. The high-resolution models have a variety of
opinions on how long this lasts after sunset, but with the upper
wave crossing the area overnight, a few showers/storms should
linger past midnight.

Temperatures should be held down a degree or two from yesterday,
with the increased clouds, but most areas should still reach the
upper 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018

No real change indicated in the toasty weather pattern through
most of next week, with temperatures frequently reaching above 90
degrees. Hottest conditions currently look to be on Sunday and
Memorial Day, when some mid 90s are on tap from about Lincoln and
Springfield west. With the tropical system along the Gulf Coast
blocking any real moisture advection our way, and crop development
still in the early stages, dew points should remain in check.
However, heat index values will still be a few degrees above the
actual temperature at times. Temperatures may ease off a touch
toward mid week, with an increase in cloud cover.

Speaking of the tropical system, hopes of getting some of its
moisture up our way are mixed. Evening model suite still has its
variations on the ultimate track, but favor more of a northeast
track mid week as its remnants lift into the Tennessee Valley. The
ECMWF model is most optimistic in getting some of its associated
rains in to the southeast third of the forecast area. The Canadian
model has a further east track, while the GFS shears out the
system before getting this far north. Most of the convection in
our area will be more scattered and diurnal in nature, due to the
weak flow. Hard to eliminate PoP`s in this general pattern, but
Sunday and Memorial Day currently look to have the best chances of
dry conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 631 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018

VFR conditions are expected for most if not all of the 12Z TAF
forecast period, although isolated to scattered thunderstorms are
likely to develop across the area 20-24Z as remnants from
overnight thunderstorms to the west push into the area.
Thunderstorms could produce brief MVFR cigs/vsbys. Thunderstorms
expected to decrease slowly through the evening with probability
of thunderstorms after 03-06Z too low for mention in 12Z TAFs.
Winds S-SW 4-10 kts through most of the forecast period.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...37


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