Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 220444

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1044 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2020

Steady rain was now winding down, though a few showers could
persist at the terminals (especially KCDS) for a few more hours.
KLBB and KPVW have been bouncing between MVFR and IFR recently,
but are expected to become firmly IFR soon. KCDS is currently VFR,
but will likely drop to MVFR (and probably IFR) over the next few
hours. The low stratus and fog will gradually be scoured out on
Wednesday as winds veer westerly. Expect VFR to return to KLBB and
KPVW around mid-morning, though KCDS may not experience a return
to VFR until mid-afternoon. A cold front will also bring a
northerly wind shift to the terminals in the afternoon.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 958 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2020/

The broad area of light rain is about to shift eastward off the
Caprock, though isolated to widely scattered showers will still be
possible further to the west. We have adjusted the PoP and Wx
grids to reflect these radar trends. We have also tweaked the
temperature and dewpoint grids to better reflect recent
observations and trends. Overall, rain totals have been on the
light side, close to a tenth of an inch in most spots. As the
upper level moisture and cloud cover shifts eastward, the residual
low-level moisture will support widespread stratus and pockets of
fog through early Wednesday morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 234 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2020/

An upper level trough axis extending roughly from SERN WY into the
Sun Country of Texas will move eastward tonight helping to enhance
lift across the region.  Northwest flow aloft then returns late
tomorrow as ridging builds along the west coast.  This ridge will
slowly move east into Friday making it to about 106W by 00ZSAT.  A
weak UL disturbance is expected for Saturday coupled to a cut-off
low across the state of Durango.  Finally, by late Monday a
respectable trough should approach the area providing for a better
chance at making some weather.

Rain shower activity is expected to move into our western zones by
mid-afternoon and exit the region by Wednesday morning.  Rain totals
look to be fairly light though a few locations may see a couple
tenths of an inch or so.  A baroclinic leaf signature is evident on
UL WV imagery this afternoon which would suggest the potential for
low level cyclogenesis across SERN NM.  These dynamical influences
could play havoc with vertical temperature provides.  The raw
guidance does not seem to be picking up on the cyclogenesis
potential and this is about the only factor that I can see which
could drive temperatures lower.  With prospects for near-surface
evaporational cooling, there is a low risk of seeing a few flakes
mix in across the northwestern zones though, given observational
trends, this would seem to be fairly unlikely. A cold front is then
expected into the region tomorrow afternoon bringing afternoon highs
down about 5 degrees though high temperatures are expected to be
warmer than what we`re seeing today. Another frontal surge arrives
on Thursday which is a mite bit cooler though afternoon highs
should remain in the 50s. Return flow initiates Thursday night
into Friday with nice traditional southwesterly surface flow for
Friday. A weak cold front looks to try to make it into the
Panhandle on Saturday though indications are that it will not push
through. Thereafter, the next decent frontal surge comes next
Tuesday. At present, this looks dry.




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