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873
FXUS64 KLUB 260523
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1223 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2020

.AVIATION...
VFR will prevail through the forecast period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 243 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2020/

SHORT TERM...
Strong lee troughing will affect the area again on Saturday in
response to a substantial upper level jet across the northern US.
The surface pressure trough axis will push farther to the east
Saturday afternoon into the western South Plains. This will allow
for much drier air to filter in from the west under stronger low
level westerly flow. East of the surface trough axis, winds will
remain out of the south but will be on the breezy side. Thicknesses
will be up a little higher on Saturday leading to warmer
temperatures. Afternoon temperatures in the mid to upper 90s look to
be just shy of record values at the moment.

LONG TERM...
The upper level pattern across the U.S. will undergo a drastic
change late this weekend as a large trough settles across the Plains
and into the eastern U.S. while ridging is amplified across the West
Coast. Sunday morning an initial northerly wind shift should drop
south across the forecast area early Sunday afternoon. While heights
aloft will be lower than Saturday with compressional warming along
this boundary afternoon temperatures should still warm to well above
normal for this time of year across the southern half of the
forecast area with slightly cooler temperatures across the northern
half. Still appears that the best dump of cold air and stronger
northerly winds will hold off till Sunday evening and overnight.
Surface pressure gradient will be quite strong with the stronger
push of cold air around 2-4mb/hr which combined with a 40-50kt 850mb
jet would indicate that wind speeds should be quite breezy Sunday
night into Monday morning potentially reaching advisory criteria.
Temperatures will fall into the mid 40`s across the southwest
Panhandle to the upper 50`s across the southern Rolling Plains by
Monday morning. Unfortunately, the bulk of the moisture and
forcing will remain east of our area which will keep the forecast
area dry. Temperatures for Monday will be well below average for
this time of year with high temperatures in the upper 60`s to low
70`s area wide. The dry and cooler pattern will continue through
much of next week as the upper level pattern won`t change much as
a longwave trough remains planted across the eastern U.S. /WCI

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

55/99/99