


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
882 FXUS64 KLUB 160336 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1036 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1036 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 - Chances for showers and thunderstorms return late tomorrow night and last through early Friday morning. - Triple-digit temperatures are forecast by early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 1036 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 In the mid/upper-levels, subtropical ridging continues to flatten over the majority of the Lower 48, as a compact shortwave continues to dig into the Glacier Country. A barotropic low was still rotating offshore Baja California, and will continue to rotate poleward over the next 48 hours as it deflects the plume of monsoonal moisture towards the southern High Plains region. The 250 mb trough partially responsible for the widely-scattered storms yesterday has since sheared out, with its waveguide becoming much broader in amplitude while flow remains at around 25 kt, per the 16/00Z objectively analyzed UA charts. Mid-level flow is otherwise anemic, which is typical of a deamplified, subtropical ridge in the mid-summer. At the surface, breezy, southerly winds persist and will remain intact through the short-term period, as the isallobaric response generated by lee cyclogenesis in the north-central Great Plains ahead of the ejecting shortwave trough maintains the leeward pressure falls. METAR and mesonet data indicate that the surface trough remains anchored west of the edge of the Mescalero Escarpment, with the nearest lee cyclone rotating in southeastern CO. The synoptic cold front has moved into the Palmer Divide, while bending northeastward past the I-80 corridor and beyond the Nebraska Sandhills. Low temperatures tomorrow morning will be a couple of degrees warmer than this past morning due to the southerly fetch. Slightly positive geopotential height rises will lead to warmer temperatures than what was observed today, with highs expected to climb into the lower-middle 90s beneath full insolation. Cu will begin to bubble by peak heating, but storm chances will hold off until after sunset, as diurnally-driven storms across the higher terrain in east/northeastern NM propagate southeastward towards the far southern TX PH. The intensification of the low-level jet to around 35 kt will facilitate a slow decay in storms throughout the overnight hours into Thursday morning, with the best storm chances across the far southern TX PH. WAA-induced, poleward-moving showers will be possible across the remainder of the CWA early Thursday morning, but a veering low-level jet will keep coverage of showers isolated. Morning lows Thursday will be similar to Wednesday, and winds will also diminish to below 10 mph by sunrise Thursday. Sincavage && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1036 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Prospects for storms Thursday evening remain intact for locales across the Caprock, as guidance has attained a better handle on the position of the synoptic cold front as it sags southward. While the opening of the barotropic low over Baja California will impart some baroclinity along the western periphery of the expanding ridge centered across the western Atlantic Basin, with the CWA being positioned within close proximity to the right-entrance region to the northern-stream 250 mb jet streak, the belt of monsoonal convection should remain largely west and north of the CWA. The best potential for storms will be across the far southwestern TX PH and into portions of the South Plains, but storm motion will become reliant on propagation from outflow-related theta deficits heading into early Friday morning as storms propagate away from the stalling front. Such theta deficits should be large given high-based LFCs and a well-mixed sub-cloud layer, which bolsters the confidence in where the best storm chances are forecast to occur. Increasing subsidence in the mid-levels as the convection propagates southeastward across northeastern NM and into the southern TX PH should result in a gradual decrease in coverage by early Friday morning. Drier and hotter temperatures are forecast this weekend and into early next week, as there remains agreement among the global NWP guidance on the amplification of the subtropical ridge as it becomes centered near the Deep South. For now, the forecast is dry by the end of the extended period, but a southwestward orientation to the steering flow may result in renewed potential for monsoonal storms. Sincavage && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 625 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 VFR next 24 hours. A few storms could pop up Wednesday afternoon though confidence in formation and location is much too low to explicitly mention ATTM. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...09 LONG TERM....09 AVIATION...26