136
FXUS64 KLUB 231114
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
614 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Isolated to scattered thunderstorms, some severe, are expected
   mainly along and east of I-27 late this afternoon and evening.

 - Thunderstorm chances continue every day from Saturday through
   Thursday, with some severe storms possible each day.

 - Very warm temperatures this weekend before a cooldown arrives
   on Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025

Another warm day is in store to close out the work week, with a
slight chance for thunderstorms once again this afternoon. The axis
of the shortwave ridge aloft will inch closer to the region this
afternoon, as an upper level trough moves onshore over the
California coast. At the surface, lee-side troughing will begin to
extend into portions of the northern Texas Panhandle, promoting
breezy southerly winds across much of the Caprock with speeds
around 10 to 20 mph, with gusts to 25 mph. These southerly winds
will enhance WAA, pushing temperatures into the mid to upper 90s
and even into the lower triple digits in some areas.

As for precipitation today, there remains a slight chance for
thunderstorms primarily for areas along and east of the I-27
corridor. Forecast soundings across the region indicate a well mixed
boundary layer, which should help with the eastward advancement of
the dryline towards the I-27 corridor by the late afternoon
hours. Due to the lack of upscale support, this boundary of low-
level convergence is expected to serve as the primary focus for
thunderstorms. However, there are a few limiting factors with
today`s set up, one being the lack of upscale support mentioned
earlier, second being the evident capping inversion on forecast
soundings, third being the chance for lingering low-level stratus
to limit diurnal heating this afternoon, and lastly, nearly dry-
adiabatic lapse rates from the surface to 700 mb suggest the
potential of an overmixed environment, which may further suppress
development by limiting the already limited low-level moisture.
If these caveats can be overcome by storms, the resulting
environment could support the development of strong to marginally
severe storms with MLCAPE values of 1500 J/kg, steep mid-level
lapse rates around 7 to 8 C/km, and bulk shear magnitudes of 40
knots. Primary hazards with storms that develop this afternoon
will be quarter sized hail along with strong to severe wind gusts
given dewpoints mixing into the 50s to low 60s and the inverted-v
nature of forecast soundings. The dryline will retreat westward
late this evening, with thunderstorm chances diminishing
thereafter with a quiet and mild night expected with overnight
lows in the upper 50s across our northwestern counties and in the
upper 60s to near 70 degrees across our southeastern counties.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025

Active weather will continue through the majority of the next seven
days as rich low level moisture remains in place beneath a
relatively progressive upper level pattern. Early Saturday, a
shortwave upper level ridge axis will build overhead before shifting
to our east late in the day, resulting in an unseasonably hot day
with most locations seeing highs in the mid 90s to low 100s. Most
models depict a surface trough stretching from near Hobbs to Lubbock
to Childress, positioned south of a quasi-stationary front over the
TX Panhandle through much of the day. The associated dry SW surface
flow over most of the Caprock will sharpen a dryline near the I-27
corridor, which combined with convective temperatures easily being
reached should support a round of scattered thunderstorms from I-27
eastward through the Rolling Plains during the evening hours on
Saturday. Additional (and likely more widespread) thunderstorms
are then expected on Sunday afternoon and evening especially off
the Caprock as a few shortwave disturbances transit overhead
within strengthening southwest flow aloft, focused along a
corridor of increased surface confluence associated with the slow-
moving frontal boundary. Ensemble agreement is high enough to
boost PoPs into likely/categorical range for most areas off the
Caprock on Sunday evening, with locally heavy rain not out of the
question given surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and PWATs above
1.5". Some severe storms capable of producing large hail and
damaging wind gusts are also likely on both Saturday and Sunday
given MUCAPEs near or above 2000 J/kg east of the dryline with
bulk shear magnitudes near 40 kt. Although it is a bit too early
for specifics, the severe threat this weekend currently looks
highest on Sunday (with some very large hail possible) especially
for areas off the Caprock.

Monday through the first half of next week, the upper level pattern
is progged to become more complicated with several embedded
shortwave troughs within a broader area of cyclonic flow over most
of the western CONUS. Deterministic models are not in good agreement
regarding the fine scale details of the individual waves, but
general consensus suggests that flow aloft over West Texas will
remain predominantly southwesterly through at least the first
half of the week. We also expect cooler and more seasonable
temperatures to return beginning on Monday as mean mid/upper
troughing takes hold aloft and the surface front finally
progresses to our south. Monday may end up being a relative down
day in regards to storm chances given increased subsidence behind
the Sunday wave, but thunderstorm chances (with some severe storms
possible) return Tuesday as moist upslope easterly flow supports
convection developing over the higher terrain to our west and
tracking eastward over our area Tuesday evening. Uncertainty
regarding the upper level pattern is even higher on Wednesday and
beyond with some models suggesting an active northwest flow
pattern developing towards the end of the week. Despite the
uncertainty, ensemble agreement is high enough to maintain
mentionable PoPs over the entire forecast area through the end of
the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 609 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025

Satellite imagery early this morning shows low-level stratus
beginning to fill in across the region. MVFR CIGs are expected to
impact all terminals through mid-morning, thereafter VFR
conditions are expected to prevail. Winds will become breezy this
morning as they veer out of the southwest through the afternoon at
around 15 to 20 knots. There is a slight chance in TSRA this
afternoon at all terminals, however confidence in exact timing and
coverage remains low.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...12