900
FXUS64 KLUB 111047
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
547 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 544 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

 - Patchy to dense fog is possible for areas on the Caprock early
   Monday morning.

 - Multiple days of hot temperatures and dry conditions expected
   this week beginning Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 1031 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

After a much needed rainy Sunday, Monday will be warmer, but
pleasant. The upper shortwave that contributed to precipitation
Sunday will exit away from the region as upper ridging begins to
build over the Desert Southwest. Northerly winds following the cold
front that blasted through the region Sunday will linger overnight
through Monday morning. Lingering moisture will bring potential for
patchy to dense fog for areas on the Caprock early in the morning.
Any fog is expected to clear out around sunrise. Winds will shift to
the south to southeast Monday afternoon as a lee surface trough
develops over Colorado. Slight height and thickness increases from
the upper ridging to the west of the region as well as southerly
surface flow will aide with temperatures warming to the low 80s
across the region. Overnight Monday will be quiet with lows in the
50s and light south to southwesterly winds.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1031 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Tuesday will be the start of multiple days of hot temperatures. The
aforementioned upper ridging will prevail over the Desert Southwest
through mid-week before slowly pushing eastward. Height and
thickness increases and prevailing south to southwesterly surface
flow will continue to warm temperatures. Highs will climb into the
90s beginning Tuesday and are expected everyday through the weekend.
Subsidence from the upper ridge will sadly keep conditions dry.
Models indicate a surface trough over the Central Plains will dig
south reaching part way into the CWA late Tuesday through early
Wednesday. As a result, winds will shift to the north to northeast
across the far southern Texas Panhandle and northern South Plains
and Rolling Plains. The only impact this surface trough will have is
on the winds. However, it won`t last long as winds will quickly
shift back to the south early Wednesday afternoon.

Later in the week, a multiple embedded shortwaves passing across the
Rockies will trigger the development of a lee surface trough each
afternoon beginning Thursday. The lee surface trough will tighten
the pressure gradient resulting in breezy southwesterly to westerly
winds everyday. Dry conditions, hot temperatures, and breezy winds
will make elevated to critical fire danger possible the latter half
of the week. The upper ridging will begin to deamplify and exit away
from the region towards the end of the week. An upper low will push
on shore off the coast of California following ridge. However,
models disagree with the progression of this upper low. ECMWF has
the low opening to a low-amplitude trough as it passes across the
northern Rockies. This progression will bring mostly zonal flow over
our region. GFS has the low progress across the Desert southwest
before passing across the Central Plains with the base of the
trough passing over the CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 544 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Fog/LIFR is occurring at KLBB and KPVW. Visibility may
periodically slightly improve, however will remain generally low
for the next few hours (through approximately 15z). Otherwise VFR
and light winds will persist thereafter.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...19