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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KMHX 241035
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
635 AM EDT Thu Jun 24 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A boundary stalled off the North Carolina coast will move back
onshore as a warm front tonight into Friday. High pressure then
builds back into the area this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 635 AM Thu...No changes to the overnight update.

Prev disc...Very quiet and unseasonably cool early
morning over eastern NC thus far with high pressure centered
over the Gulf of Maine ridging southwest in the Carolinas. A
very weak upper trough over the mid-Atlantic is encouraging some
thin cirrus development over the CWA but expect this to
dissipate as upper support fades.

Pleasant conditions this morning begin to deteriorate by late
afternoon as a stalled offshore trough/front retrogrades back
towards the coast as weak low pressure lifts into the Delmarva
peninsula. This will bring an increase of clouds and low-level
moisture from east to west with a few sprinkles or showers
possible as well. Temperatures today perhaps a degree or two
warmer than yesterday but with cooler NE flow again expecting
only 70s around the Albemarle Sound region with low 80s along
and south of US 70.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
As of 340 AM Thu...Offshore boundary will continue to slowly
lift back across eastern NC overnight with a gradual increase in
shower coverage from the southeast. A few thunderstorms appear
probable for at least coastal locales overnight as more unstable
airmass advects in behind the front. Low temperature forecast
tricky and dependent on how quickly the coastal front (and much
more moist airmass) moves into the area. Favored a forecast
around the guidance mean, with lows in the mid 60s west of US 70
but upper 60s to low 70s east.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 320 AM Thursday...A frontal boundary offshore will move
back toward the coast early Friday and move inland during the
day. With precipitable water values surging back above 2 inches,
the front will trigger scattered to numerous showers, with a
few embedded thunderstorms possible and have high chance to
likely PoPs for Friday, especially in the morning. Parameters do
not support severe weather and overall average QPF amounts will
be at one-quarter inch or less. Fairly uniform high
temperatures on Friday with highs in the mid 80s with a decent
amount of cloud cover.

For the weekend into the middle of next week, mid-level high
pressure expands west from the Atlantic as the Bermuda ridge
sets up at the surface. Weak daily trough will occur over the
Piedmont. Precipitable water values remain at or above 2 inches
through midweek. This combination of factors will produce a
daily threat of scattered showers and thunderstorms and have
PoPs in the climatologically normal 30-40 percent, mainly inland
through the period. High temperatures climb from the mid 80s
over the weekend, into the upper 80s Monday through Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 12Z Friday/...
As of 135 AM Thu...VFR conditions expected now through most of
the day today, before cigs lower to MVFR along and east of a
line from roughly KDPL to KMQI as coastal trough lifts across
eastern NC from the southeast. A few scattered showers are
possible with this feature for the same region with the
potential for brief localized periods of IFR.

LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 320 AM Thursday...A frontal boundary slips moves onshore
early Friday. Given high precipitable water values, scattered to
numerous showers are likely, especially early Friday, with a
few thunderstorms possible as well. This will produce some sub-
VFR conditions Friday. For Saturday through Monday, a more
typical summer regime is likely with scattered showers and
storms along the sea breeze in the afternoon and evening hours.
Some patchy fog may occur at night bringing brief reductions in
vsby.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Today and Tonight/...
As of 345 AM Thu...Conditions over the waters gradually
improving early this morning. Prevailing NE wind of 10-20 kt
courtesy of pinched pressure gradient between ridge of high
pressure inland and sharp trough/front roughly 150 nm off the
coast of Hatteras. Seas are predominantly 4-5 feet although
wouldn`t be surprised to see a few 6 footers for outer waters.

Expecting NE winds to continue through the day as boundary
begins to approach the coast as a weak low lifts towards the
Delmarva peninsula. NE winds of 15 to occasionally 20 kt
tonight before gradually veering SE as front pushes inland. Seas
continue to gradually fall through the period, reaching a low
of 3-4 feet by Fri morning.

Since winds and seas are improving slightly faster than
expected, trimmed back the expiration time of central water SCA.

LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 325 AM Thursday...With high pressure at the surface and
aloft building west from the Atlantic through the period, a
fairly consistent pattern develops. Expect SE winds 10-15 knots
and seas 2-4 feet for the most part through the extended period.
Small Craft Advisory conditions are not expected.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ203-205.
MARINE...None.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MS
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/MS
MARINE...CTC/MS