Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 062337 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 637 PM EST Fri Dec 6 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front push across the area tonight with high pressure building in over this weekend. A stronger cold front will move through Tuesday night and early Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... As of 630 PM Fri...A weak trough moving through the area this afternoon and evening has sparked some showers across southern NC and offshore. It has taken some time for the column to saturate with dry air in place, but recently light rain has been observed across the southern half of the area, and expect scattered showers or drizzle to continue for the next few hours before tapering off from west to east. Some scattered showers will persist along the immediate coast through the first half of the night as the trough and cold front move further to the east. Then, overnight high pressure will pinch southward which will tighten the gradient, and lead to winds and CAA increasing just before daybreak. Temps are currently in the low to mid 50s, and will only drop into the mid to upper 40s through the first half of the night. But, then as CAA increases and cloud cover decreases, temps will plunge into the upper 30s to low 40s across most of the area just before daybreak. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... As of 300 PM Friday...High pressure builds in from the north with strong CAA much of the day. There may be some lingering clouds through the morning but expect mainly sunny skies by the afternoon. NNE winds will gusts around 20-25 mph inland to around 30 mph along the coast. Temps will be much cooler with highs in the low to mid 50s, coolest north. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 235 AM Fri...Unsettled weather is likely for Sunday night through Wednesday morning as deep moisture returns ahead of a strong cold front. Saturday through Sunday...Strong high pressure will pass to our north Saturday into Sunday with cooler temperatures in the low/mid 50s Sat accompanied by gusty north winds. Rather chilly Saturday night as winds diminish inland, allowing temperatures to drop to the lower 30s, and upper 30s to low 40s along the Outer Banks. With the high moving east of the area Sunday, winds veer to E/ESE with temperatures moderating to the upper 50s to lower 60s. A weak coastal trough tries to develop along the SE coast Sunday, and could see light showers move onshore during the late afternoon. Sunday Night through Thursday...The combination of a deepening mid-level trough, mid-level shortwave energy and precipitable water values that will increase to 1.25 inches or better will lead to a more unsettled weather pattern with better chances of showers Sunday night into Mon morning and then off and on through midday Wednesday ahead of a strong cold front. Per trends in guidance, the highest QPF and PoPs will be Sunday night into Mon morning and again Tuesday night into Wed morning. With the more southerly flow, high temperatures will be above normal Monday and Tuesday. Highs Monday will be well into the 60s with lower to middle 70s possible Tuesday. The strong cold front will push through the area late Tue night into early Wednesday. Much cooler air behind this front, with highs in the 50s Wed, and may struggle in some spots to hit 50 deg Thu. Widespread lows near or below freezing Thursday morning. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Short Term /through Saturday Evening/... As of 635 PM Fri...VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Currently mid level ceilings and light rain are present across most of the airspace and will persist through early tonight (couldn`t rule out a brief period of MVFR ceilings). Then, clouds will clear late tonight, and winds will increase behind a cold front by tomorrow morning. Wind gusts 20-25 mph are possible tomorrow, but otherwise it will be dry and sunny. Long Term /Saturday night through Wednesday/... As of 235 PM Fri...VFR conditions are expected to prevail Saturday night into Sunday as strong high pressure moves north of the region. Unsettled weather is expected Sunday through Wednesday morning with scattered showers and periods of sub-VFR conditions. && .MARINE... Short Term /Through Saturday/... As of 315 PM Friday...A cold front will approach the area this evening across the waters after midnight with strong CAA ramping up around daybreak. Winds will generally be around 15 kt or less much of the night, generally out of the SW to W early and W to NW later this evening and overnight. Winds become NNE and increase to around 15-25 kt with higher gusts with the surge behind the front for much of Saturday. Seas will be around 1-3 ft tonight then build to 4-7 ft Saturday. Continue the SCA for the waters except the inland rivers. Long Term /Saturday night through Wednesday/... As of 235 PM Fri...An active weather pattern through the middle of next week will result in hazardous boating conditions with strong winds at times and a prolonged period of elevated seas AOA 6 ft. Gusty N/NE winds 20-25 kt Sat evening slightly diminish to 15-20 kt late then veer to SE Sunday. Sunday night SE winds increase to 20-25 kt and continue into Monday while becoming S. S/SW winds around 25 kt are expected Mon night and Tue ahead of a cold front. The front will cross the waters late Tue night and Wed morning with the flow shifting to NW 15-20 kt. Based on the current wave model forecasts the only period with seas below 6 ft will be late Sunday morning into early Sunday evening, otherwise elevated seas will prevail with seas peaking at 6-9 ft Mon into Tue evening. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to 4 AM EST Sunday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 1 PM EST Saturday for AMZ131- 230-231. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to 10 AM EST Sunday for AMZ156-158. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM EST Saturday for AMZ150. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...SGK SHORT TERM...SK LONG TERM...JME/CQD AVIATION...JME/SGK MARINE...JME/SK

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