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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KMHX 111158
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
Issued by National Weather Service Wakefield VA
658 AM EST Tue Dec 11 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move northeast away from the area today. High
pressure will build over the region tonight through Thursday.
Another strong storm system will affect the area Friday into
Saturday. High pressure will gradually build in from the west
early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 700 AM Tue...Improving conditions today as upr trf
crosses and sfc low moves away. Light rain is lingering along
the coast and should spread offshore by later this morning. Clouds
shld lift and sct out thru morn with skies becoming msunny
inland by noon and Outer Banks this aftn. Highs mostly 45 to 50
with poss some lower 50s srn tier.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
As of 225 AM Tue...High pres will grad build in from the SW
with mclr skies expected. Good radiational cooling inland with
lows 25 to 30. Breeze will cont beaches with lows mainly 30 to
35.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 225 am Tue...
High pressure along the eastern seaboard Wed and Thu will
result in a brief period of dry conditions in between two very
wet weather systems. Another dynamic and strong storm system
will move east for the end of the week. GFS and ECMWF now in
better agreement concerning the placement of what will be a
cutoff mid-level low moving across the deep south with the GFS
then trending a faster and a bit to the north toward the mid-
Atlantic by Sunday. The primary concern with this system from
the current guidance cycle is the threat of heavy rainfall, as a
consensus of the GFS/ECMWF shows 2-4 inches of rain. With
already swollen creeks and rivers, this could cause additional
flooding of low-lying areas. Strong gusty SE/S winds will also
be likely with this system. It is too early to determine the
extent of the convective threat, as surface-based CAPE values
are only forecast to be around 300-500 J/kg, but shear should be
decent with low-level SE flow. Ahead of this system,
temperatures will finally warm into the 60s for Friday in the
gusty S/SE flow before falling back into the 50s Saturday with
widespread clouds/rain.

Sunday through Monday...High pressure will again build in from
the west/northwest Sunday into Monday with a drying trend. The
air behind this system will be more of a Pacific airmass, so
temperatures will not be appreciably cooler with highs generally
50s and lows in the 30s, close to seasonal normals.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term /through Tonight/...
As of 600 am Tue...Conditions have improved to VFR (w/ MVFR BR
at KEWN) as CIGS have lifted to around or above 4000 feet. With
the exception of 4-5SM BR at KEWN through ~13z, VFR conditions
expected through the 12z TAF period as clouds shld lift and sct
out from sunrise thru mid-late morning. SKC expected by late
aftn/evening as a dry airmass spreads in assoc with high pres to
the SW.


Long Term /Wed through Saturday/...
As of 120 am Tue...VFR conditions should prevail through Thu
evening with high pressure building in from the north and
northeast. Showers become widespread Friday into Saturday, with
periods of sub-VFR conditions likely. Gusty SE/S winds will also
accompany the front Friday night and Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short term /Today and tonight/...
As of 225 AM Tue...As sfc low off the coast departs will see
winds and seas slowly diminish through the period. NNW winds
will cont at mainly 20 to 25 kt coastal wtrs today with some
gusts to 30 kts early. As high pres builds in from the SW
tonight NW winds will diminish to 10 to 20 kts. Seas of 7 to 12
feet early will subside to 5 to 9 feet late today and 4 to 7
feet tonight. SCA will end over Pamlico Sound later today and
nrn coastal waters tonight.

Long Term /Wed through Sat/...
As of 225 am Tue...Elevated seas will finally go below SCA
levels by Wednesday afternoon as high pressure builds in from
the north and northeast. Winds will veer to E/SE at 5-15 knots
for Wednesday night into Thursday. Gusty SE/S winds increase to
20-30 knots Friday into Saturday as seas rebuild to as high as
10-12 feet by Saturday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 225 AM Tue...Cont High Surf Advisory N of Cape Hat thru
the morning with breaker around 8 feet.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...High Surf Advisory until noon EST today for NCZ103.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Wednesday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RF/AKQ
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...RF/HSA/AKQ
MARINE...RF/HSA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX