Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 210151 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 951 PM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build in from the north through the weekend. Slow moving low pressure will impact the area early to mid next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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As of 930 PM Fri...No changes planned with clear skies and cold temps as high pres builds in from the NW. Prev disc...Secondary high center develops over Eastern NC tonight as an extension of the parent high over the Great lakes region and will remain over the region through Saturday. This system will continue to produce cool/dry conditions over the area. There is some concern tonight that patchy light frost will develop inland as winds decouple later this evening leading to strong radiational cooling with clear skies expected. With dewpoints forecast to be in the mid to upper 30s, will forecast lows in a similar range and forecast patchy light frost in areas where the low temps is forecast to be <= 36F. Winds may stay mixed from the southern Outer Banks to downeast Carteret county where lows will be in the lower 40s, otherwise expect mid to upper 30s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... As of 330 PM Fri...High pressure will remain over the area Saturday with continued clear skies, light winds and below normal temps. Highs will range from the low 50s northern Outer Banks to the mid 60s inland. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 330 PM Fri... Saturday night and Sunday... Sfc high pressure will prevail across the region through Sunday with continued dry and seasonably cool conditions. Highs will moderate into the mid to upper 60s Sunday after a chilly start with lows Sat night in the lower 40s. Monday through Friday...Unsettled conditions are expected through the period as a energetic mean upper trough develops over the eastern US. Mon it appears that the surface high will delay precipitation onset associated with a upper low lifting NE out of the deep south and not expecting much rainfall before 8 PM (00Z) with best chance south and west late. The upper low will become an open wave as it becomes absorbed/phases with a northern stream shortwave Mon night and Tue. This is when the models track a developing low across the area. There is a potential for heavy rains in excess of 1 inch Mon night into Tue as high Theta-E air gets advected off the Gulf-stream . Will have to watch for isolated severe potential with inland tracking surface low Tue and backed low level SE flow but instability remains in question. Dry slotting will end the widespread precipitation threat Tue evening as the sfc low lifts NE of the area but additional mid level shortwave energy will drop from the Northern Plains towards the Southeast Wednesday with a weak cold front associated with it and expected to push through Thurs with a secondary cold frontal passage possible on Friday keeping the threat of showers in the forecast into at least Thu. The warming trend will continue through Thursday with highs in the upper 60s/low 70s inland Tue and low to mid 70s Wed and Thu. Cooler 60s are expected along the coast. && .AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Short Term /Through Saturday/... As of 630 PM Friday...High pressure surface and aloft will build into the region through the period bringing mainly clear skies with a high confidence of VFR conditions. Light mainly NE winds are expected tonight and Saturday. Long Term /Saturday Night through Wednesday/... As of 330 PM Fri...VFR conditions will prevail into Mon morning as high pressure influences the weather. Moisture will increase across the region late Mon into Tue as low pressure tracks across the area producing widespread rain/sub VFR conditions Mon night into Tue. Improving conditions expected Wednesday with the low lifting north of the area and drier air moving into the region. && .MARINE...
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Short Term /through Saturday/... As of 930 PM Fri...Fcst looks good as winds and seas cont to subside with high pres building in from the NW. Prev disc...Winds have diminished to 15 kt or less across the waters as high pressure builds over Eastern NC tonight and continues through Sat. Wind speeds will remain 15 kt or less tonight and Sat with the flow mainly NE. 3-5 ft seas this evening will subside to 2 to 3 ft tonight and Sat. Long Term /Saturday night through Wednesday/... As of 330 PM Fri...NE winds 10- 15 kt are expected Sat night and Sunday as high pressure gradually shifts off the Mid- Atlantic coast. Wind gradient will tighten Monday as a low pressure system approaches the region from the Gulf States, expect winds to become ENE 15-20 knots, then increasing to 20-30 knots Tuesday. Seas will generally be around 2-3 ft through early Monday morning, then seas will build 4-6 ft throughout Monday. Seas will continue to build Monday night and Tuesday as the sfc low approaches the area, expect seas to reach as high 10-13 ft. Winds become SW 10-15 kt Wed with elevated 7-10 ft seas gradually subsiding to 5 to 8 ft late.
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&& .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JME NEAR TERM...RF/JME SHORT TERM...JME LONG TERM...JME/BM AVIATION...RF/BM MARINE...RF/JME/BM

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