Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 290010 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 710 PM EST Tue Jan 28 2020 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will ridge in from the northwest tonight, and eventually slide to the north of the area by Thursday. A storm system will develop well to the south Friday, and then another area of low pressure will form over the area on Saturday. High pressure looks to build in behind this system through Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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As of 700 PM Tues...High pressure continues to build in from the NW into tonight, providing clear skies overnight. Efficient radiational cooling will drop temps down to upper 20s to low 30s inland with upper 30s to low 40s along the coast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... As of 330 PM Tues...A quiet day expected as high pressure moves over northern portions of the CWA by the afternoon. Winds will remain light and with an afternoon high near average. A few high clouds will begin filtering in ahead of the next system that will approach the area Wednesday night. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 240 PM Tue...Quiet weather will continue into Wednesday. A fast moving area of low pressure will move south of the region Wednesday night and Thursday producing a few light mainly coastal showers. A more substantial area of low pressure is expected to impact the region late Friday into this weekend. High pressure will build over the area late this weekend into early next week. Wednesday night through Thursday Night...A strong mid-level shortwave will dive south across the Carolinas Wednesday night and Thursday with a surface low forming and moving well south of our region. Guidance indicates light rain will be possible from late Wed evening into Thu morning especially near the coast. With the fast moving nature of this system, will continue to keep sc/low chance pops. Low level thickness values keep temps near to a few degrees below normal Thu with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. Overnight lows dropping into the 30s inland and upper 30s to low 40s for the beaches. Friday through Sunday...Strong mid-level shortwave trough will dive across the Southeast and Southern Atlantic Coast Friday night into Saturday, as strengthening sfc low pressure is forecast to lift near the NC coast. Still some uncertainty with exact track and timing, the GFS continues to move it right along the NC coast while the ECMWF is a bit weaker and keeps it just offshore. Specifics will depend on exact low track, but there is the potential for locally heavy rain, strong winds along the coast and minor soundside water level rises along the Outer Banks. All guidance continues to show moderate to locally heavy rain developing Friday night across the area, with widespread QPF amts 0.5-1" with some higher amounts possible. Increased pops to likely. Will keep chance pops in for Saturday given the uncertainty but may it end up being mostly dry with only widely scattered showers depending on track and timing of the low and associated "dry slot". A period of strong WNW winds is possible on the backside of the low along the coast late Saturday night into the first part of Sunday. This could lead to minor water level rises on the sound side of the Outer Banks. The low should race away from the area Saturday night Sunday, with high pressure and upper ridge building in. Mild temps expected this weekend with highs generally in the 50s and lows in the upper 30s inland to mid 40s along the beaches. Monday and Tuesday...High pressure will build over the area from the SW Sunday night and Monday. The high will shift off the coast Monday night ahead of next approaching frontal system. Mon looks like a pleasant day with mostly sunny skies and above normal temps. Highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s. Tue should continue mild though there will be a chance for showers. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Short Term /through Wednesday/... As of 700 PM Tues...High confidence in VFR conditions will dominate the TAF period. High pressure will continue to build overnight and remain over the region through the TAF period. Winds have become calm across the area, except for EWN with winds becoming light and variable tomorrow. There is a chance of river fog to develop at PGV late tonight, but have not been included with this TAF issuance as confidence remains low. A few to sct high clouds will begin filtering in tomorrow leading to few light showers late in the period (Wed Night). Long Term /Wednesday night through Sunday/... As of 240 PM Tue...A few light showers may impact the eastern TAF sites Wed night into Thursday with potential for brief sub- VFR conditions. Better chances for widespread sub-VFR conditions late Friday into Saturday morning as an area of low pressure is forecast to lift along or near the NC coast and produce widespread rain. Sat afternoon into Sunday is expected to be pred VFR with gusty west winds.
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&& .MARINE...
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Short Term /Tonight and Wednesday/... As of 700 PM Tues...The latest buoy observations are showing northerly winds 5-15 knots and seas 3-5 ft. Made minor tweak to the wind speed forecast by lowering winds a bit based on the latest wind observations. Otherwise, the marine forecast remains in great shape. Pre Dis...NW winds will continue to drop from 10-15 kts to around 8-14 kts after midnight. Seas will start out at 3-5 feet late afternoon, but gradually drop to a predominant 2-4 feet after midnight. During the day Wednesday, high pressure will settle across the northern shores during the day. N winds will stay around 5-10 kts along the southern waters with NNW winds around 10-15 kts for waters N of Cape Lookout. Seas will remain steady at 1-3 ft for the southern waters and 2-4 ft N of Cape Lookout. Long Term /Wednesday night through Sunday/... As of 240 PM Tue...Strong winds and elevated seas possible this weekend. Moderate N/NE flow 15-20 kt is expected Wed night into Thu night with seas 3-5 ft. The N/NE winds diminish a bit Friday/Fri night 5-15 kt as weak coastal trough may develop off the coast. Will continue seas 2-4 ft through Fri though some 5 ft seas will be possible over the outer waters Wed night/Thu. A strong mid-level shortwave trough will dive across the Southeast and Southern Atlantic Coast Friday night into Saturday, as strengthening sfc low pressure is forecast to lift near the NC coast. Still some uncertainty with exact track and timing, the GFS continues to move it right along the NC coast while the ECMWF is a bit weaker and keeps it just offshore. So still a bit of uncertainty with exact wind speeds and seas, which will be very dependent on exact track of sfc low. Will indicate strong SCA level westerly winds (20-30 kt) beginning Saturday night and elevated 6 ft+ seas developing late Fri night. There will be potential for Gale force winds, with best chances on the backside of the low Saturday night into Sunday morning. With offshore flow seas should peak at 5-8 ft Sat night into Sunday.
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&& .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...BM/CB/ML SHORT TERM...CB/ML LONG TERM...JME/CQD AVIATION...JME/BM/ML MARINE...JME/BM/CB/ML

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