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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KMHX 270157
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
957 PM EDT Mon Oct 26 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue over the area through mid week. A
complex frontal system and low pressure area will impact the
area Thursday into Friday. Cool high pressure will build in
Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 955 PM Monday...No major changes to the forecast. With
calm winds and high pressure axis across central Virginia and
NC, conditions will be favorable for good radiational cooling
tonight. Some patchy fog already being observed at KEWN and KPGV
and more fog and areas of stratus are likely overnight,
especially west of the Highway 17 corridor. Lows should be in
the low to mid 50s at most inland areas with near 60 degrees
along the central Outer Banks.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
As of 225 PM Monday...High pressure will continue over the area
with dry conditions. Morn fog and low clouds inland shld grad
dissipate and expect PC skies in the aftn with highs mostly
low/mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 4 AM Mon...High pressure keeps settled weather conditions
in place through mid week. A complex low pressure/frontal
system will lift from the Gulf Coast and TN Valley then zoom
across the eastern US, bringing unsettled weather Thursday into
early Friday.

Tuesday night and Wednesday...High pressure should dominate
this period, as fairly strong upr ridge will reside over the
swrn Atlantic keeping dry and warm conditions in place over ern
NC. Continued above climo temps with highs in the 70s, possibly
around 80 by Wed. Lows Tue night seasonably cool with high pres
and light winds, with readings in the 50s.

Thursday and Friday...Hurricane Zeta, which will make landfall
on the central Gulf Coast late Wednesday, will then move quickly
through the interior Southeastern CONUS Thursday. The exact
track of this system is still uncertain, but the overall
expectation is increased deep moisture transport across the
Southeast and a more warm/humid/unsettled period as the tropical
system gets absorbed in a fast moving shortwave that will move
quickly eastward. 26/00Z GFS continues furthest east and
therefore wetter on Thu with the track through the Appalachians,
while the ECMWF/UKMET bring the system through the TN Valley
and are dry until the main shortwave and cold front move through
Thu night. Have therefore continued only chc pops for the day
Thu, highest Coastal Plains, while bumping pops to likely Thu
night, in tandem with main shortwave and fropa. Conditions
improve drastically on Fri, with strong CAA and blustery nwrly
winds brining sharply colder temps.

Highs Thur very warm in the low 80s most locales with increasing
swrly winds, with Thu night lows in the 60s.

Saturday through Sunday...Coolest airmass of the season on tap
with aforementioned fropa and subsequent cool high pres building
in. Highs will struggle towards 60 degrees many areas on Sat,
with lows Sat night well down into the 40s. Coolest ECM MOS
indicating some upper 30s possible interior zones. Temps
moderate towards climo by Sun with highs 65-70.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term /Through 00Z Weds/...
As of 710 PM Monday...Skies are generally clear early this
evening, and winds have already decoupled at all TAF sites.
High-resolution and MOS guidance shows optimal conditions for
radiational fog overnight and have continue to indicate IFR/LIFR
conditions in fog and low stratus, from after midnight into
Tuesday morning for all TAF sites. The low clouds should
diminish by mid-morning Tuesday with VFR conditions expected
during the afternoon.

Long Term /Tuesday night through Friday/...
As of 4 AM Mon...VFR conditions prevail most of the period.
Will have typical threat of late night and early morn
fog/stratus. By later Thu wl start to see some shra develop
ahead of next system with sub VFR poss at times. Breezy
conditions will develop with this strong system.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Tue/...
As of 10 PM Monday...Winds continue mostly Northerly at 10-15
knots with a few higher gusts around Diamond Shoals with seas
4-5 feet over the northern tier and 3-4 feet down south.
 winds will diminish to 10 kt toward morning. Light winds are
expected Tue as the high builds overhead. Seas will be
subsiding to 2 to 4 ft Tuesday afternoon. Overall, minimal
changes to the marine forecast on this update.

Long Term /Tuesday night through Friday/...
As of 4 AM Mon...High pressure dominates thru Wednesday,
bringing more favorable marine conditions with general 5-10 kt
winds and 3 to 4 ft seas. Strong cold front and low pressure
system approach on Thu, with winds and seas increasing to SCA
levels in strengthening swrly flow. Some gales possible ahead of
the system Thu evening, and once again on back side of exiting
low on Fri. Seas respond by building 6-10 ft Thu into Fri.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...RF/CTC/TL
MARINE...RF/CTC/TL