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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KMHX 210151
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
951 PM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in from the north through the weekend.
Slow moving low pressure will impact the area early to mid next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 930 PM Fri...No changes planned with clear skies and cold
temps as high pres builds in from the NW.

Prev disc...Secondary high center develops over Eastern NC
tonight as an extension of the parent high over the Great lakes
region and will remain over the region through Saturday. This
system will continue to produce cool/dry conditions over the
area. There is some concern tonight that patchy light frost will
develop inland as winds decouple later this evening leading to
strong radiational cooling with clear skies expected. With
dewpoints forecast to be in the mid to upper 30s, will forecast
lows in a similar range and forecast patchy light frost in areas
where the low temps is forecast to be <= 36F. Winds may stay
mixed from the southern Outer Banks to downeast Carteret county
where lows will be in the lower 40s, otherwise expect mid to
upper 30s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
As of 330 PM Fri...High pressure will remain over the area
Saturday with continued clear skies, light winds and below
normal temps. Highs will range from the low 50s northern Outer
Banks to the mid 60s inland.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 330 PM Fri...

Saturday night and Sunday... Sfc high pressure will prevail
across the region through Sunday with continued dry and
seasonably cool conditions. Highs will moderate into the mid to
upper 60s Sunday after a chilly start with lows Sat night in the
lower 40s.

Monday through Friday...Unsettled conditions are expected
through the period as a energetic mean upper trough develops
over the eastern US. Mon it appears that the surface high will
delay precipitation onset associated with a upper low lifting NE
out of the deep south and not expecting much rainfall before 8
PM (00Z) with best chance south and west late. The upper low
will become an open wave as it becomes absorbed/phases with a
northern stream shortwave Mon night and Tue. This is when the
models track a developing low across the area. There is a
potential for heavy rains in excess of 1 inch Mon night into Tue
as high Theta-E air gets advected off the Gulf-stream . Will
have to watch for isolated severe potential with inland tracking
surface low Tue and backed low level SE flow but instability
remains in question. Dry slotting will end the widespread
precipitation threat Tue evening as the sfc low lifts NE of the
area but additional mid level shortwave energy will drop from
the Northern Plains towards the Southeast Wednesday with a weak
cold front associated with it and expected to push through Thurs
with a secondary cold frontal passage possible on Friday
keeping the threat of showers in the forecast into at least Thu.


The warming trend will continue through Thursday with highs in
the upper 60s/low 70s inland Tue and low to mid 70s Wed and
Thu. Cooler 60s are expected along the coast.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term /Through Saturday/...
As of 630 PM Friday...High pressure surface and aloft will
build into the region through the period bringing mainly clear
skies with a high confidence of VFR conditions. Light mainly NE winds
are expected tonight and Saturday.

Long Term /Saturday Night through Wednesday/...
As of 330 PM Fri...VFR conditions will prevail into Mon morning
as high pressure influences the weather. Moisture will increase
across the region late Mon into Tue as low pressure tracks
across the area producing widespread rain/sub VFR conditions Mon
night into Tue. Improving conditions expected Wednesday with
the low lifting north of the area and drier air moving into the
region.

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Short Term /through Saturday/...
As of 930 PM Fri...Fcst looks good as winds and seas cont to
subside with high pres building in from the NW.

Prev disc...Winds have diminished to 15 kt or less across the
waters as high pressure builds over Eastern NC tonight and
continues through Sat. Wind speeds will remain 15 kt or less
tonight and Sat with the flow mainly NE. 3-5 ft seas this
evening will subside to 2 to 3 ft tonight and Sat.

Long Term /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
As of 330 PM Fri...NE winds 10- 15 kt are expected Sat night
and Sunday as high pressure gradually shifts off the Mid-
Atlantic coast. Wind gradient will tighten Monday as a low
pressure system approaches the region from the Gulf States,
expect winds to become ENE 15-20 knots, then increasing to 20-30
knots Tuesday. Seas will generally be around 2-3 ft through
early Monday morning, then seas will build 4-6 ft throughout
Monday. Seas will continue to build Monday night and Tuesday as
the sfc low approaches the area, expect seas to reach as high
10-13 ft.

Winds become SW 10-15 kt Wed with elevated 7-10 ft seas
gradually subsiding to 5 to 8 ft late.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...RF/JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...JME/BM
AVIATION...RF/BM
MARINE...RF/JME/BM