Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 160840 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 340 AM EST Sat Feb 16 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move south through the area today and an area of low pressure will pass by to the south. High pressure will temporarily build in from the north tonight. Several frontal boundaries and areas of low pressure will affect the region much of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 340 am Sat...Latest run of GFS/ECMWF show good agreement between the two, and match up well with current conditions around the region. Rain shield is just to the west and will overspread the forecast area through the remainder of the overnight/early morning hours. Expect widespread coverage this morning, with strong lift/convergence along boundary sinkinig south through the forecast area with low pressure passing just to the south this morning. Categorical PoPs this morning taper back to chance by later this afternoon as the front sinks further to the south and the low moves out to sea. Highs temps will range from the upper 40s to lower 50s along the northern tier, to the mid/upper 50s across the far south. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 340 am Sat...High pressure will wedge in from the north tonight, allowing for drier and cooler air to filter into the area. Precip will taper off quickly from northwest to southeast this evening, with dry conditions after 03Z. Lows will drop into the 30s inland and upper 30s to lower 40s along the beaches. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 340 AM Saturday... Unsettled weather expected through the period, as numerous frontal systems and shortwaves impact the region. Sunday through Monday...A significant positively-tilted upper level trough will dig into the SW US, allowing for SW flow aloft and increased moisture over the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic regions through early next week. Rain chances will increase Sunday afternoon as the frontal boundary that`s to the of the area, lifts back up as a warm front with an area of low pressure developing along the boundary combined with shortwave energy aloft. The best chances for precip is Sun night through mid-day Monday. Will continue likely Pops Sun night, then tapering off Mon afternoon/evening as a cold front pushes through the area. Expect highs in the in the 50s Sunday and into the mid 50s to lower 60s Monday. Tuesday through Friday...The 00z model suite have become into better agreement compared to past model runs, but uncertainty remains with timing. Overall, weather conditions will remain unsettled with additional rain and clouds. The area will be under the influence of high pressure extending down from the north, but this will be short lived as an areas of low pressure starts to develop over the Gulf states Tuesday night, and lifts into the TN/OH Valley Wed while secondary low develops along the NC coast. As the low lifts towards the New England coast the associated cold will push through the area, but timing is uncertain. The latest ECMWF pushes the front through the area late Thu, while the GFS has the front pushing through Thursday night into early Friday, but keeps the boundary stalled near the area and deep moisture in place. Will continue high chance to likely PoPs through Friday, as fronts and areas of low pressure linger over the area, combined with shortwave energy. Temps look mild with highs in the 50s to 60s and overnight lows in the 40s and 50s. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Short Term /through 06Z Sun/... As of 1 am Sat...VFR expected over the next few hours with only scattered very light showers. After 07-09Z ceilings quickly lower to MVFR then IFR as rain shield not too far to the west spreads across the area. From 12-18Z widespread IFR in moderate to briefly heavy rain is expected as weak low pressure and a trailing cold front tracks through the area. After the front passes through this morning, winds shift to northerly behind the front with precip shifting off the coast in the afternoon, though IFR ceilings will linger into early this evening, lifting a bit to MVFR after 03Z. Long Term /06Z Sun through Wed/ As of 340 am Sat...Unsettled weather expected through the period as frontal boundaries and shortwaves moves across the area. Scattered to numerous showers expected with periods of sub-VFR through late week. && .MARINE... Short Term /through tonight/ As of 340 am Sat...Winds will be southwest early this morning ahead of cold front approaching from the north. Winds will then quickly become northerly as the front moves south through the coastal waters this morning into early this afternoon. The surge behind the front will yield winds of 15-25 kts through today beginning over the northern waters this morning and spreading to the southern waters late this afternoon. Seas will build to 4-6 ft today north of Ocracoke, with 3-5 ft south. SCA conditions will continue across most of the waters this evening with gusty NNE winds 15-25 kt and seas 4-7 ft continuing behind the front. Long Term /Sun through Wed/ As of 340 am Sat...Marine conditions will improve Sunday as winds and seas will diminish to 10 kt or less by Sun afternoon and seas subsiding to 2-4 ft. Winds will become WNW winds 10-15 kt Monday with seas 2-4 ft, then NE 15-20 kt Monday night into Tuesday. Variable winds 10-20 kt Wed as a frontal boundary lingers over the waters and area of low pressure develops along the coast. A period of SCA conditions will be possible Mon night through Tue. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 4 AM EST Sunday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 10 PM EST this evening for AMZ130-131. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 10 AM EST Sunday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Sunday for AMZ156-158. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 4 AM EST Sunday for AMZ150. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...HSA SHORT TERM...HSA LONG TERM...BM AVIATION...HSA/BM MARINE...HSA/BM

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