Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 182002 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 402 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue to ridge into the region from offshore, though rain chances will increase as a weak trough crosses the area tonight and tomorrow. A weak front will cross the region early Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... As of 300 PM Tues...High pressure continues to ridge into the area this afternoon, with SW winds continuing. Scattered convection along the sea breeze will continue to propagate inland, and have chance PoPs through the evening before showers dissipate. A coastal trough is then expected to move up the SE coast tonight, and contribute to additional development of showers and thunderstorms especially along the coast. Have chance PoPs to likely PoPs along the immediate coastline with the heaviest rain occurring in the overnight hours into tomorrow morning. Could also see a stronger storm with shear increasing, but think severe threat is still very low. Low temps are expected to be very warm again, mostly in the low to mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... As of 320 PM Tue...The coastal trough will move offshore tomorrow morning, however an upper level trough will still remain over the region tomorrow, with a few impulses moving through in the afternoon. So am expecting ongoing shower and thunderstorms mostly along the coast in the morning, and then a lull from late morning into the early afternoon. Then, scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected to develop in the afternoon and continue into the evening hours. Severe parameters are decent, with shear of ~25 kts, and MUCAPEs approaching 2000 J/kg, so couldn`t rule out a strong to severe wind gust, but large amounts of cloud cover should limit the potential. High temps will be slightly cooler, mainly in the mid to upper 80s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 310 PM Tuesday...Unsettled weather will continue through at least Thursday before a somewhat drier pattern develops Friday into the weekend. Another shortwave will approach early this week, once again enhancing rain chances. Wednesday Night through Thursday...The combination of deep moisture with precipitable water values close to 2 inches, and a strong mid-level shortwave will lead to high chances of showers and a few thunderstorms Wednesday Night and Thursday. The surface ridge offshore will weaken. A weak surface trough inland will lead to an increased gradient and gusty SW winds Wednesday Night and Thursday. Very warm temperatures expected Wednesday night with lows in the mid 70s and highs upper 80s coast and low/mid 90s inland. Friday through Tuesday...Weak ridging aloft develops Friday and continues through the weekend. Precipitable water values drop significantly for Friday and will keep the forecast dry for Friday, Friday night and Saturday. Some sea breeze convection looks to return for Sunday and Monday as moisture creeps back into the area and temperatures rise back into the lower 90s inland and upper 80s coast. The surface trough well to the west sharpens a bit on Tuesday, but rain coverage will remain limited due to minimal surface forcing in our area. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Short Term /through Tomorrow Afternoon/... As of 330 PM Tues...Some scattered thunderstorms are expected through this evening. And, aside from some brief periods within showers, VFR conditions will continue into the overnight hours. However MVFR and possibly IFR conditions are possible heading into tomorrow morning. Low level stratus is again expected to develop, and looks to be more widespread tonight. Towards sunrise, IFR conditions may develop especially closer to the coast, including KEWN and KOAJ, but confidence is not high enough to include in the TAF. VFR conditions then return by mid morning tomorrow, with more widespread showers and thunderstorms expected. Long Term /Wednesday Night through Sunday/... As of 315 PM Tuesday...Scattered to numerous showers and a few tstms are expected Wednesday night into Thursday with periods of sub-VFR conditions. Could also see some patches of morning fog Thursday morning in areas that receive rainfall. Gusty SW winds are expected Wednesday Night into Thursday Night, becoming W on Friday. Predominant VFR conditions expected Friday into Saturday as dry air filters in behind cold front. && .MARINE... Short Term /Through Tomorrow Night/... As of 330 PM Tue...A brief period of diurnally driver gusty winds is expected again across the Pamlico Sound and coastal waters north of Cape Hatteras through this evening, with wind gusts 25-30 kts. Will handle with a Marine Weather Statement again. Winds elsewhere are currently SW 15-20 kts, and seas are 2-3 ft. Expect winds to remain fairly steady through tomorrow, and then increase again (a bit stronger) tomorrow afternoon and evening. Will issue a SCA for the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet as well as the Pamlico, Croatan, and Roanoke Sounds for strong wind gusts 25-30 kts and building seas to 6 feet by tomorrow evening across the coastal waters. Long Term /Wednesday Night through Sunday/... As of 325 PM Tuesday...The pressure gradient will increase between high pressure retreating offshore and a sharpening surface trough inland Wednesday night into Thursday night. Expecting SW winds of 15-25 knots, with gusts to 30 knots especially later on Thursday into Thursday night. Winds veer to westerly on Friday behind the cold front and gradually diminish to 15-20 knots later in the day. SCA conditions will be likely during this period. With weak high pressure to the north, light northerly winds expected Friday night into Saturday, before becoming SW 10-15 knots Sunday as high pressure re-establishes itself offshore. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...SGK SHORT TERM...SGK LONG TERM...CTC AVIATION...CTC/SGK MARINE...CTC/SGK

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