Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 061129 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 629 AM EST Sat Mar 6 2021 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds into the region through the weekend and becomes centered over the area early next week. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... As of 630 AM Sat...Latest sfc analysis shows 1030+ mb high pressure centered over W Ontario and Northern Plains extending through the Central and SE US. Mid and high clouds continue to stream into the area this morning as several disturbances round the base of the deepening upper trough. Below normal temps will continue today. Low level thickness values, 850 mb temps and partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies support highs in the mid to upper 40s along the Outer Banks, and low to mid 50s inland. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 250 AM Sat...Sfc high remains in control tonight, as upper trough amplifies over the Eastern US and low pressure moves off the FL coast. Mid and high clouds expected to linger early, then gradually clearing and pushing off the coast. Another chilly night with lows falling into the upper 20s to low 30s area wide. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 245 AM Sat...Mostly dry weather expected with high pressure dominating through the period. Below normal temps to start off, with temperatures gradually warming through next week. Sunday...High pressure continues to build over the area with cool and dry weather expected. Offshore low will continue to trek away from the SE coastline with impacts limited to a cool Nrly flow on the backside. Low level thickness values support highs in the mid 40s to low 50s with mostly sunny skies. Good radiational cooling set up Sun night with clear skies and calm winds. Lows in the upper 20s to low 30s, with most locations dropping below freezing. Monday through Thursday...Surface high continues to build into the region from the west, bringing Nrly winds Monday before moving overhead Tuesday. Aftn highs will remain modest with 50s Mon and 60s Tue. High pressure will shift off the coast Wednesday ahead of the next approaching frontal system. Winds turn Srly, providing some warm return flow across the region Wed and Thu with highs back into the upper 60s and 70s. Friday...Next frontal system begins to take shape as a more active weather pattern sets up across the Central and Northern US. Still quite a bit of uncertainty with timing and evolution between models, but will keep the forecast dry late week for now. Temps remain warm in the 70s with SW flow in place. && .AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Short Term /through tonight/... As of 630 AM Sat...Pred VFR conditions expected through the period with high pressure in control. Broken mid and high clouds will continue to stream in today, gradually shifting off the coast and clearing tonight. Long Term /Sunday through Wednesday/... As of 255 AM Sat...Pred VFR conditions expected through the period with high pressure in control. && .MARINE... Short Term /through tonight/... As of 630 AM Sat...Latest obs show N winds 10-20 kt with seas 2-4 ft. Mini northerly surge, 15-20 kt ongoing early this morning. CAA weakens today and the gradient relaxes with high pressure in control. Flow becomes more W-N 5-15 kt by late morning and afternoon and 5-10 kt this evening. Light winds this evening with seas 2-3 ft. Gradient will gradually tighten overnight as low pressure moves off the SE coast. Northerly winds increasing to 15-20 kt by early Sun morning, with seas building to 2-4 ft. Long Term /Sunday through Wednesday/... As of 300 AM Sat...Gradient tightens Sunday as low pressure passes well southeast of the waters. A few gusts to 25 kt will be possible across the outer central waters Sunday and Sunday evening, with seas building to 3-5 ft. Moderate northerly winds continue Mon morning diminishing to 5-15 kt by afternoon and seas subsiding to 2-4 ft. High pressure will move overhead Tue and just Wed, gradually shifting winds to the SW around 5-10 kts. Seas will remain calm around 1-3 ft. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...CQD SHORT TERM...CQD LONG TERM...ML/CEB AVIATION...CQD/ML MARINE...CQD/ML

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