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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KMHX 031859
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
259 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
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Please see latest advisories from the National Hurricane Center
concerning TC Isaias which is expected to make landfall near
the North Carolina/South Carolina border late tonight and move
inland on Tuesday before moving well north of the area by
Tuesday night. A front will linger near or over the area from
mid through late week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 3 PM Mon...The center of TC Isaias is currently about 115
miles south of Charleston, SC. Radar and satellite show it
becoming more organized as it moves over the Gulf Stream. Isaias
will continue to lift NNE along the SE coast this afternoon and
NHC has it forecast to be a strong TS or low end hurricane at
landfall near the SC/NC border tonight. The bulk of the impacts
will be felt overnight into Tuesday morning. A dramatic
increase in the winds expected across ENC after 00Z as the
center of Isaias moves inland near the NC/SC border and moves up
the I-95 corridor. Tropical Storm Force winds are expected
across the area, peaking late tonight and Tue morning. Showers
and storms beginning to blossom across the area and offshore
this afternoon, with some cells beginning to show weak rotation.
The tornado threat remains a sig concern with the entire
forecast area along and right of the storm`s path through early
Tuesday morning. STP numbers get into the 4-5 range overnight
with 0-1 km SRH values 400-500 m2/s2. Main tornado threat looks
to be between 10pm-8am as the center lifts into the NC coastal
plain. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect with QPF totals 3-5
inches over the western tier of the CWA in a short amount of
time given the fairly rapid movement of Isaias. Heavy rainfall
rates expected with PWATs climbing to 2.5". Storm Surge Watches
and Warnings continue for portions of the area, with surge
peaking late tonight and Tue morning. See CF section below for
details.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
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As of 3 PM Mon...The current Isaias track has it moving into SE
VA Tue morning and racing into the Delmarva area by early
afternoon. Lingering impacts expected in the morning, esp across
the N/NE forecast area, but conditions will be quickly improving
from south to north late morning and afternoon.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 300 AM Monday...A mid to upper level trough will remain
in place through the weekend, allowing for deep SW flow accompanied
with Gulf moisture, leading to scattered showers and thunderstorms
each day.

Tuesday night through Friday... A trough aloft will remain in across
the eastern half of the CONUS allowing for a deep SW flow coupled
with Gulf moisture (precip waters AOA 2.0 inches) feed into the
region. While at the surface, a cold front will move into the region
and stall between central and eastern NC. The latest models don`t
have a good agreement where the boundary will stall, but think it
will be more of a quasi-stationary front. With this synoptic setup,
this will allow for showers and thunderstorms to occur each day.

Saturday through Monday...Models disagree further in what will
happen to the stationary boundary. The Euro model has the boundary
pushing a cold front Saturday morning, while the GFS still has it as
a stationary boundary. Will continue to use WPC guidance for this
time frame.

In general, temperatures during the long term forecast period will
be near climatology with highs in the upper 80s to around 90 and
lows mainly in the low to mid 70s.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term /through 18Z Tuesday/...
As of 150 PM Monday...Conditions will begin to deteriorate this
afternoon and especially tonight as Tropical Cyclone Isaias
moves inland and across the Carolinas. Increasing winds, and
rain along with lowered ceilings and visibilities are expected
by evening. After 0Z MVFR to occasional IFR conditions will
prevail with sustained winds at 40 knots with gusts up to 60
knots from especially after midnight into the early morning
hours. Winds and precipitation should start to subside fairly
quickly from daybreak as the circulation of Isaias moves north
into Virgina. MVFR ceilings are likely to linger through the
morning with Pred VFR developing in the afternoon.

Long Term /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
As of 150 PM Monday... Outside of scattered, mainly diurnally
driven convection, and the potential for brief early morning
fog or low clouds, VFR conditions are expected through the
period.

&&

.MARINE...
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Short Term /through Tuesday/...
As of 3 PM Mon...Conditions will quickly deteriorate across the
waters this afternoon and evening, becoming very dangerous with
strong winds and double digit seas. Latest obs show SE/S winds
10-20 kt with seas 2-4 ft and seas 4-6 ft south of Lookout. Trop
Storm Warnings continue for the waters, with winds peaking
tonight and early Tue morning. Seas will build quickly this
evening, peaking at 10-20 kt. Conditions will be improving Tue
afternoon, with winds becoming SW 10-20 kt and seas subsiding to
6-9 ft.

Long Term /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
As of 300 AM Monday...Conditions improve fairly rapidly late
Tuesday night as Isaias quickly moves away from the area. Winds
will from the S/SW at 15-20 knots Tuesday night, then becoming
around 10 or less knots for the rest of the period. Some
lingering swell will keep combined seas at 3-5 feet Tuesday
night, then further subsiding to 3-4 ft Wednesday evening
through the end of the week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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As of 3 PM Mon...Storm Surge Warning continues for areas
adjacent to the inland rivers, Neuse/Bay/Pamlico/Pungo, as well
as the soundside Outer Banks north of Oregon Inlet. Storm Surge
Watches continue for portions of the coast. In general, storm
surge will be 2-4 ft with the greatest inundation along area
beaches south of Cape Hatteras and western Pamlico Sound,
Roanoke and Croatan Sounds including the Pungo and Pamlico
Rivers.

Long period swell from Isaias will continue to impact the
beaches through the middle of the week. These swells will also
lead to a high threat of dangerous rip currents. Very dangerous
surf conditions will continue into Tuesday with breaking waves
8 ft or higher along the coast as Isaias is forecast to pass
just to the W of the region bringing gusty winds and large seas.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Tropical Storm Warning for NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-
     193>196-198-199-203>205.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195-
     196-199-203>205.
     Storm Surge Watch for NCZ047-195-196-199-204-205.
     High Surf Advisory from midnight tonight to 2 PM EDT Tuesday
     for NCZ195-196-199-204.
     Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for NCZ029-044-045-
     079-080-090>092-193-198.
     Storm Surge Warning for NCZ080-081-094-194-203.
     High Surf Advisory from 4 AM to 2 PM EDT Tuesday for NCZ203-
     205.
MARINE...Tropical Storm Warning for AMZ131-135>137-150-152-154-156-158-
     230-231.
&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...JME
MARINE...CQD/BM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX