Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 031859 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 259 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020 .SYNOPSIS...
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Please see latest advisories from the National Hurricane Center concerning TC Isaias which is expected to make landfall near the North Carolina/South Carolina border late tonight and move inland on Tuesday before moving well north of the area by Tuesday night. A front will linger near or over the area from mid through late week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 3 PM Mon...The center of TC Isaias is currently about 115 miles south of Charleston, SC. Radar and satellite show it becoming more organized as it moves over the Gulf Stream. Isaias will continue to lift NNE along the SE coast this afternoon and NHC has it forecast to be a strong TS or low end hurricane at landfall near the SC/NC border tonight. The bulk of the impacts will be felt overnight into Tuesday morning. A dramatic increase in the winds expected across ENC after 00Z as the center of Isaias moves inland near the NC/SC border and moves up the I-95 corridor. Tropical Storm Force winds are expected across the area, peaking late tonight and Tue morning. Showers and storms beginning to blossom across the area and offshore this afternoon, with some cells beginning to show weak rotation. The tornado threat remains a sig concern with the entire forecast area along and right of the storm`s path through early Tuesday morning. STP numbers get into the 4-5 range overnight with 0-1 km SRH values 400-500 m2/s2. Main tornado threat looks to be between 10pm-8am as the center lifts into the NC coastal plain. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect with QPF totals 3-5 inches over the western tier of the CWA in a short amount of time given the fairly rapid movement of Isaias. Heavy rainfall rates expected with PWATs climbing to 2.5". Storm Surge Watches and Warnings continue for portions of the area, with surge peaking late tonight and Tue morning. See CF section below for details.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
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As of 3 PM Mon...The current Isaias track has it moving into SE VA Tue morning and racing into the Delmarva area by early afternoon. Lingering impacts expected in the morning, esp across the N/NE forecast area, but conditions will be quickly improving from south to north late morning and afternoon.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 300 AM Monday...A mid to upper level trough will remain in place through the weekend, allowing for deep SW flow accompanied with Gulf moisture, leading to scattered showers and thunderstorms each day. Tuesday night through Friday... A trough aloft will remain in across the eastern half of the CONUS allowing for a deep SW flow coupled with Gulf moisture (precip waters AOA 2.0 inches) feed into the region. While at the surface, a cold front will move into the region and stall between central and eastern NC. The latest models don`t have a good agreement where the boundary will stall, but think it will be more of a quasi-stationary front. With this synoptic setup, this will allow for showers and thunderstorms to occur each day. Saturday through Monday...Models disagree further in what will happen to the stationary boundary. The Euro model has the boundary pushing a cold front Saturday morning, while the GFS still has it as a stationary boundary. Will continue to use WPC guidance for this time frame. In general, temperatures during the long term forecast period will be near climatology with highs in the upper 80s to around 90 and lows mainly in the low to mid 70s.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Short Term /through 18Z Tuesday/... As of 150 PM Monday...Conditions will begin to deteriorate this afternoon and especially tonight as Tropical Cyclone Isaias moves inland and across the Carolinas. Increasing winds, and rain along with lowered ceilings and visibilities are expected by evening. After 0Z MVFR to occasional IFR conditions will prevail with sustained winds at 40 knots with gusts up to 60 knots from especially after midnight into the early morning hours. Winds and precipitation should start to subside fairly quickly from daybreak as the circulation of Isaias moves north into Virgina. MVFR ceilings are likely to linger through the morning with Pred VFR developing in the afternoon. Long Term /Tuesday night through Saturday/... As of 150 PM Monday... Outside of scattered, mainly diurnally driven convection, and the potential for brief early morning fog or low clouds, VFR conditions are expected through the period. && .MARINE...
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Short Term /through Tuesday/... As of 3 PM Mon...Conditions will quickly deteriorate across the waters this afternoon and evening, becoming very dangerous with strong winds and double digit seas. Latest obs show SE/S winds 10-20 kt with seas 2-4 ft and seas 4-6 ft south of Lookout. Trop Storm Warnings continue for the waters, with winds peaking tonight and early Tue morning. Seas will build quickly this evening, peaking at 10-20 kt. Conditions will be improving Tue afternoon, with winds becoming SW 10-20 kt and seas subsiding to 6-9 ft. Long Term /Tuesday night through Saturday/... As of 300 AM Monday...Conditions improve fairly rapidly late Tuesday night as Isaias quickly moves away from the area. Winds will from the S/SW at 15-20 knots Tuesday night, then becoming around 10 or less knots for the rest of the period. Some lingering swell will keep combined seas at 3-5 feet Tuesday night, then further subsiding to 3-4 ft Wednesday evening through the end of the week.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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As of 3 PM Mon...Storm Surge Warning continues for areas adjacent to the inland rivers, Neuse/Bay/Pamlico/Pungo, as well as the soundside Outer Banks north of Oregon Inlet. Storm Surge Watches continue for portions of the coast. In general, storm surge will be 2-4 ft with the greatest inundation along area beaches south of Cape Hatteras and western Pamlico Sound, Roanoke and Croatan Sounds including the Pungo and Pamlico Rivers. Long period swell from Isaias will continue to impact the beaches through the middle of the week. These swells will also lead to a high threat of dangerous rip currents. Very dangerous surf conditions will continue into Tuesday with breaking waves 8 ft or higher along the coast as Isaias is forecast to pass just to the W of the region bringing gusty winds and large seas.
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&& .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Tropical Storm Warning for NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094- 193>196-198-199-203>205. Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195- 196-199-203>205. Storm Surge Watch for NCZ047-195-196-199-204-205. High Surf Advisory from midnight tonight to 2 PM EDT Tuesday for NCZ195-196-199-204. Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for NCZ029-044-045- 079-080-090>092-193-198. Storm Surge Warning for NCZ080-081-094-194-203. High Surf Advisory from 4 AM to 2 PM EDT Tuesday for NCZ203- 205. MARINE...Tropical Storm Warning for AMZ131-135>137-150-152-154-156-158- 230-231. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...CQD SHORT TERM...CQD LONG TERM...BM AVIATION...JME MARINE...CQD/BM TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX

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