Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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352 FXUS62 KMHX 131822 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 222 PM EDT Sun Oct 13 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will approach from the west later tonight into Monday before slowly moving offshore Monday night. High pressure will quickly pass through the area on Tuesday. Low pressure will move up the east coast Wednesday, and push a cold front offshore Wednesday night. Cooler high pressure will build in late week and into next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 230 PM Sunday...Init band of shra falling from mid lvls is lifting NE and may clip portion of nrn cstl plain this aftn. Main band of shra and a few tsra will move into the inland areas later this evening then cross the region overnight. Looks like will have enuf instab for chc tsra all area thru evening and closer to cst overnight. Looking for widespread rainfall of 1/4 to 1/2 inch with local amounts 1/2 to 1 inch. Based on this bumped up pops to categorical most of the area. Mild lows in the 60s expected. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY/... As of 230 PM Sunday...Weak cold front will cont to slowly approach from the W. Lingering shra along the coast expected to push offshore thru the morn with little to no pops for the aftn as drier air works in. Will cont dry fcst for the aftn although with heating may see enuf instab develop for an isold shra but confidence too low to add pop. Will remain mild with highs around 80 inland to mid/upr 70s cst. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 215 PM Sunday...A weak front will move across the area Monday night with high pressure briefly building into the area Tuesday. A stronger low pressure area and attendant cold front will move across the area Wednesday with high pressure building in through the rest of the week bringing a cooler and drier airmass. Monday Night and Tuesday...The cold push south of the area Monday night and Tuesday with high pressure building in from the northwest. Highs expected in the upper 70s to around 80 inland to mid 70s along the coast both days as there will be little CAA behind the front and return flow developing Tuesday afternoon with the high quickly migrating offshore. Lows Monday night will be in the mid to upper 50s inland to low to mid 60s along the coast. Tuesday night and Wednesday...A more robust upper level system approaches Tuesday night with an area of low pressure developing across the Southeast and deepening as it tracks across the Carolina piedmont and off the Delmarva peninsula Wednesday. Isentropic lift increases across the area Tuesday evening with widespread precip developing across the area after midnight. A warm front will lift across the area late Tuesday night before the cold front pushes through in the afternoon. Modest instability will develop in the warm sector with strong shear and forcing present, with some chances for thunderstorms ahead of the cold front. There will be a risk for severe storms as well, with MUCAPE values reaching 1000-1500 J/kg, under deep layer shear of around 40 kts...will continue to monitor. We could see beneficial rainfall with models showing widespread QPF amounts around 3/4 to 1 inch. Temps remain seasonably mild ahead of the front Wednesday with highs in the mid to upper 70s, but will see strong CAA develop late in the day and especially overnight with lows expected in the upper 40s to lower 50s inland to mid 50s coast. Wednesday night through Saturday...Strong high pressure builds in from the west Thursday and Friday bringing dry weather and a much cooler airmass. High expected in the mid to upper 60s with lows in the mid to upper 40s inland to low to mid 50s along the coast. The high migrates offshore next weekend with ridging building aloft with dry conditions persisting and max temps warming into the 70s. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Short Term /through Monday/... As of 1220 PM Sunday...VFR conditions expected into the evening with increasing clouds and sct shra and poss tsra developing well inland. Conditions shld become MVFR to IFR later tonight as shra become more widespread and cigs lower...best IFR chcs late tonight to around daybreak. On Mon the shra will end quickly from W to E in morn with conditions transitioning thru MVFR to VFR by late morn and VFR will cont thru the aftn as skies become mclr. Long Term /Monday through Friday/... As of 220 PM Sunday...VFR conditions expected through Tuesday as high pressure briefly builds into the area. A strengthening low pressure area will lift across the area Tuesday night into Wednesday with widespread sub-VFR conditions in showers and isolated thunderstorms expected. A strong cold front will push through Wednesday afternoon with pred VFR conditions returning and continuing through the end of the week as strong high pressure builds in from the west. Strong south to southwest winds expected ahead of the front and could see gusts to around 25 kt at the terminals Tuesday night and Wednesday with a period of gusty northwest winds late Wednesday behind the front. && .MARINE... Short Term /Tonight thru Mon/... As of 230 PM Sunday...Swell conts to subside with seas now 5 ft or less and have dropped the SCA. Cold front will approach from the W slowly with SW winds 10 to 20 kts tonight into early Mon with winds diminishing to 5 to 15 kts later Mon with dir becoming WSW. The swell and gusty SW winds will keep seas 3 to 5 ft into early Mon then shld subside to 2 to 4 ft late Mon. There is small window late tonight where could see some 6 ft seas outer central wtrs when winds peak but for now will cap at 5 ft. Long Term /Monday night through Friday/... As of 220 PM Sunday...The front will push through Monday night with winds becoming northwest to north around 5-10 kt as high pressure builds into the region, which continues to veer northeast to east Tuesday as the high migrates offshore. Seas subside to 2-3 ft by early Tuesday morning and continues through Tuesday. SCA conditions expected to return mid week as a low pressure area will develop across the Southeast Tuesday night and then lift across the area Wednesday. A warm front will lift across the waters Tuesday night ahead of the low with winds becoming south to southwest and increasing to 20-30 kt with higher gusts and seas building to 6-10 ft. The front pushes through Wednesday afternoon with winds becoming northwest around 15-25 kt Wednesday, which gradually diminishes through the day Thursday. Seas peak Wednesday afternoon and gradually subside Wednesday night and Thursday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 230 PM Sunday... Water lvls remain quite high along the coast and looks like could again flirt with minor flooding this evening during next high tide so cont the coastal flood advry from eastern Carteret N across the OBX thru later this evening. Cont high threat of rip currents N of Cape Hatteras thru this evening. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ203- 205. Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for NCZ196- 203>205. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...RF SHORT TERM...RF LONG TERM...SK/SGK AVIATION...RF/SK MARINE...RF/CTC/SK/SGK TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX

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