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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KMHX 031819
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
219 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure remains in control for much of the week. A strong
but mostly dry cold front will cross the area Saturday, with
high pressure building back in from the west late weekend and
early next week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 220 PM Tue...Surface high pressure continues to build in
from the north and west, with a weak coastal trough offshore. N
to NE winds persist between these features, with sct to broken
diurnal cu field developing this afternoon. Additionally there
could be some minor haze as smoke from Canadian wildfires
advects down the eastern seaboard. Dry conditions continue
tonight, with shower activity focused well offshore. Mainly
clear skies and light winds inland will make for efficient
radiational cooling after sunset, with lows again in the low to
mid 50s away from the beaches. Very shallow fog is possible late
near moisture sources such as ponds and swamps, but minimal fog
impacts expected.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 220 PM Tue...Similar pattern continues for Wed with
strong high pressure overhead and weak coastal troughing
offshore. Should be another dry day with temps near or slightly
above climo.
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&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 4 AM Tue...Mainly dry weather continues through much of
the coming week as high pressure to the north and west remains
in control. A weak coastal trough could bring light rain
chances Friday, and then another chance for light showers on
Saturday with a strong cold frontal passage, then much cooler
and drier for the latter half of the weekend into early next
week.

Thursday through Friday...Weak coastal troughing will be
offshore this period, though some influx of low level moisture
may bring rain showers to mainly ern portions of ENC Thu into
Fri. Mostly sunny skies on Thu will turn mostly cloudy by Fri,
though pops only in the 20-30% range, highest ern counties.
Highs will cont above climo, in the low 80s, and lows also warm
with readings well into the 60s for most.

Saturday...The next feature that will require monitoring is a
cold front that will sweep through by Sat evening. Early
indications are that there will be limited moisture transport
ahead of the feature as low lvl flow is wrly, and not swrly out
of the GOM, and therefore only low end (20%) POPs are in the
forecast on Sat with this fropa.

Sunday through Monday...Significantly cooler and drier air mass
invades the ern CONUS late weekend through early next week, with
a strong touch of autumn expected across ENC. Strong Canadian
high pres builds in and temps drop to below climo, with highs in
the upper 60s to around 70s expected, and lows mainly in the 40s
(50s beaches).
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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SHORT TERM /through Wednesday/...
As of 220 PM Tue...VFR conditions currently across the
terminals with sct to broken cu 4-5 kft. There is a signal for
another round of patchy shallow radiation fog again overnight
and early Wed morning. Based on climo and persistence, PGV is
the location with the greatest chances for fog impacts, though
all sites could briefly see sub- VFR. Additionally, increasing
MVFR strato-cu could develop through the night, but is expected
to remain south and east of the terminals.

LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
As of 4 AM Tue...Mainly VFR through the coming week as high
pressure ridges in from the north and west. A weak coastal
trough will affect mainly the coastal counties with small rain
chances Thu into Fri, then a strong cold front but limited
moisture availability moves through on Sat.
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&&

.MARINE...
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SHORT TERM /through Wednesday/...
As of 220 PM Tue...Latest obs show N/NE winds 10-20 kt with
seas 5-8 ft. High pressure will remain in control of the waters
through the period with weak coastal troughing offshore.
Gradually diminishing mid to long period swell from low pressure
over the central North Atlantic and modest local wind swell
will keep 5-7 ft seas in place through this evening, subsiding
to 4 to 6 ft tonight, with SCAs persisting for the coastal
waters. Seas should drop below 6 ft for the northern waters
tonight and the southern waters early Wed morning. Will hold
onto 6 ft seas for the central waters for Wed, though NBM and
Wavewatch show seas subsiding below 6 ft by late Wed morning.

LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
As of 4 AM Tue..Building medium period swell brings back 6+ ft
seas for all of the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet from
distant trop cyclone Philippe. A strong cold front will sweep
through by Sat evening with gusty NW to N winds developing in
it`s wake.
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&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ203-
     205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ156-158.
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&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...CQD/TL
MARINE...CQD/TL