-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
977
FXUS62 KMHX 122354
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
754 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of very weak troughs and fronts will approach Eastern
NC this week with Bermuda high pressure anchored offshore.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 2 PM Sat...

Key Messages

 - Heat indices climbing to 100 to 105 degrees this afternoon

 - Isolated (15-30%) thunderstorm chances for most, higher for
   NE NC

 - Patchy fog possible away from beaches tomorrow morning

Weak, fizzling back door cold front is moving through NE NC
this afternoon and evening, among an area of broader scale
convergence as easterly onshore flow interacts with sw flow over
NC. This highlights the area between Albemarle Sound and
Pamlico River as an area of increased shower and tstorm coverage
through the evening for the CWA. Severe probs are low, but with
dry mid-levels leading to DCAPEs > 1000 J/kg any storms that
grow tall enough would be capable of strong to severe wind gusts
from wet microbursts. In addition, slow storm motions could
produce locally heavy rainfall totals, although the area of
highest storm coverage can handle quite a bit of rainfall before
flooding becomes a concern. Regardless, this will be another
aspect of storms to watch out for. For the remainder of ENC,
dry air and weak forcing along the sea breeze should keep storms
transient, sparse, and lower topped. High temps have climbed
into the low 90s inland, and mi dto upper 80s along the coast.
Heat indices will peak around 100-105 this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
As of 230 PM Sat...Mostly quiet conditions are expected tonight
with any lingering evening convection dissipating. Partly
cloudy skies and calm or nearly calm winds will introduce the
threat of patchy fog again. Low temps mostly in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 2 AM Sat...Expecting daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms into the end of the week, though chances may
decrease slightly on Thurs/Fri. Shower and thunderstorm chances
will be diurnal in nature. Upper level trough in the Upper
Midwest will gradually push E`wards into the Northeast on Monday
before pushing out into the Canadian Maritimes on Tue. At the
same time, upper level ridging centered near GA/FL will
gradually push west and stall in the Deep South/Southeast early
next week as it is sandwiched between two upper level lows. One
in the western Gulf of Mexico and the other in the Sargasso Sea.
Upper low in the western Gulf tracks west into Mexico by mid to
late week, while the Sargasso Sea upper low gradually pushes
out into the Central North Atlantic allowing ridging to
gradually shift east over the Carolinas by Thu/Fri. As this
occurs, another upper trough pushes across the Great Lakes and
into the Northeast. At the mid levels, we will have a weak mid
level shortwave track across the Carolinas on Sun, with a second
and stronger mid level shortwave then pushing into the area on
Mon into Tue. This shortwave will eventually stall across the
Eastern Seaboard through about midweek before mid level ridging
begins to overspread the Mid-Atlantic by the end of the week.

At the surface, PWATs generally remain around 1.5-2.0 inches through
Sun, and this will be relatively low compared to previous days as
some dry air associated with an approaching backdoor cold front
infiltrates the area. This dry air will also likely limit shower and
thunderstorm coverage on Sun with any sea/lake/sound breezes being
the primary driver of convective activity given the lack of
significant forcing. Moisture then pools and PWATs surge to greater
than 2 inches across the area Mon/Tue as the previously mentioned
incoming shortwave early next week pulls moisture northwards from
the Gulf. This will result in a better chance at more widespread
shower and thunderstorm activity as better forcing overspreads ENC.
With PWATS remaining elevated and having ample deep layer moisture
in place, any thunderstorm that develops early next week will bring
a threat for heavy to excessive rainfall. Combined with the already
wet ground from previous days activity, there will at least be a low
end threat for some isolated flash flooding. As a result, WPC has
placed the area in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall on Mon/Tue
across our inland counties across the CWA. While there will be a
lack of wind shear across ENC over the next several days, 1000-3000
J/kg of MLCAPE is forecast to be in place each day bringing the
potential for sub-severe wind gusts within the strongest storms. As
we get later into the week, ridging looks to overspread the
Carolinas once again bringing some upper level convergence and
drier air over the area and thus limiting precip chances.

High temps each day range from the upper 80s to low 90s with the
hottest temps on Sun. While we are not expected to reach heat
advisory criteria, with heat indices around 100-105 F on Sun, any
prolonged outdoor exposure could become hazardous to more vulnerable
groups. Lows through the entire long term remain in the mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHORT TERM /through 00z Monday/...

Key Messages

 - Patchy fog possible tonight

As of 755 PM Sat...VFR conditions prevail across eastern NC this
evening with spotty weak convection lingering across portions of
the coastal plain. This activity will fall apart in the next
hour with loss of heating, giving way to mainly clear skies and
calm winds. Environment appears favorable for fog and low
stratus development early this morning given deep low-level
moisture. Previous TAFs remains well aligned with most recent
guidance, and largely preserved the 18z forecast with minor
timing tweaks.

ENC returns once again to a typical summertime regime with iso
to widely scattered convection in the afternoon. Storms will be
sub-severe but still pose a risk for locally heavy rainfall.

LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 2 AM Sat...Will have a daily threat at afternoon and
early evening showers and thunderstorms through the period with
the lowest chances to see precip on Sun. This will bring a low
end threat at sub-VFR conditions each afternoon and early
evening to the TAF sites. One caveat to all this, the OBX may
mainly remain precip free through just about all of the period
and this area has the best chance to remain VFR through midweek.
If it does rain, then there will also be a fog and low stratus
threat at night as well for areas that see meaningful rainfall.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHORT TERM /through Sunday/...
As of 230 PM Sat...Rather benign boating conditions persist
across our waters and should continue through tonight outside of
any showers and thunderstorms today. Currently 5-10 kts SW
winds, remaining light through the period. Seas will be 2-3 ft
through tomorrow. Diurnal showers and thunderstorms with heavy
rain, lightning, and gusty winds will be possible for inland
sounds and rivers today though coverage will be isolated to
widely scattered at best. Tonight tstorm coverage dies down and
winds remain light, then tomorrow tstorm chances return, with
with winds and seas remaining low.

LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 2 AM Sat...Benign boating conditions continue across our
waters as ridging remains the dominant feature across the
Carolinas. Winds will generally remain light at 5-10 kts on
Sunday with seas of 2-3 ft noted along our coastal waters. Winds
will eventually become S`rly on Mon but remain a 5-10 kts and
change little through Tue. Winds may briefly increase closer to
10-15 kts around midweek. Seas will remain around 2-3 ft
through the rest of the period. Diurnal showers and
thunderstorms with heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds will
be possible through the period.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RJ
SHORT TERM...RJ
LONG TERM...RCF
AVIATION...MS/RCF
MARINE...RCF/RJ