Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 301105 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 705 AM EDT Thu Jun 30 2022 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds in from the north today and pushes offshore this weekend and into early next week with rain chances increasing. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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As of 7 AM Thu... The latest obs show that fog has begun to lift across the FA this morning with visibilities finally beginning to increase. Fog should quickly dissipate within the next hour or so as the sun continues to rise and fog mixes out this morning. Otherwise upper level ridge continues to build into the Mid- Atlantic today, which translates to mainly dry conditions. Cannot rule out an iso shower for coastal counties early, then transitioning inland through the afternoon with daytime heating. No thunder threat as instability will be fairly weak and no upper support available. Highs will be in the upper 80s interior to low/mid 80s coastal counties.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/... As of 330 AM Thu... Ridging remains in place keeping us dry for the most part Thursday evening as light S-SE`rly winds continue to persist across the FA. With skies once again forecast to clear and little in the way of wind around the region tonight, another threat for some fog, though likely less dense than this mornings activity will be possible. Otherwise lows get down into the low 70s across the FA tonight as dewpoints stay around 70 as well and low level thicknesses change little. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 300 AM Thu...High pressure just offshore will circulate warm, unstable air across eastern NC late this week through much of next week. As the somewhat moist and unstable air interacts with diurnal heating and weak impulses aloft, scattered showers and thunderstorms will result, especially in the afternoons and evenings inland, and along the immediate coast late nights into the morning hours. Temperatures will be near July normals through the period. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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SHORT TERM /through Thursday night/... As of 7AM Thu... Fog has begun to lift across the CWA this morning with EWN reaching VFR ceilings and visibilities as of this update. PGV/OAJ/ISO will follow shortly and quickly transition from IFR/MVFR visibilities to VFR conditions as well within the next hour or so. VFR conditions are then forecast through the remainder of the TAF period with partly cloudy skies across all TAF sites. Winds turn SErly in the aftn at about 5-10 knots with an iso shower possible. As we get into tonight there is a weak signal for some fog development with the GLAMP showing some lowering of the visibilities late tonight into early tomorrow morning. However, given the uncertainty with this solution have left any mention of lower vis out of the TAFs for this update. LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/... As of 300 AM Thu...Mostly VFR conditions are expected into early next week as high pressure remains offshore. Scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms each day could produce occasional periods of sub-VFR conditions.
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&& .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Tonight/... As of 320 AM Thu... High pressure is now located offshore the coast this morning and will move little throughout the day today. This will continue to bring 5-10 kt E to SE winds across all waters this morning with winds increasing slightly closer to 10-15 knots by this afternoon. WInds decrease once again tonight down to 5-10 knots while becoming more southerly as the high shifts slightly E`wards. Seas through the period will remain around 2-3 ft. LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/... As of 300 AM Thu...High pressure just off of the coast will produce a S/SW flow mainly 10-15 kt through early next week. The guidance is indicating that winds could increase to 15-20 kt Sunday. Seas will be 2-4 ft through the period with some 5 footers possible over the outer waters Sunday if the stronger flow materializes. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...RCF SHORT TERM...RCF LONG TERM...RM/JME AVIATION...JME/RCF MARINE...JME/RCF

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