Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 270157 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 957 PM EDT Mon Oct 26 2020 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue over the area through mid week. A complex frontal system and low pressure area will impact the area Thursday into Friday. Cool high pressure will build in Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... As of 955 PM Monday...No major changes to the forecast. With calm winds and high pressure axis across central Virginia and NC, conditions will be favorable for good radiational cooling tonight. Some patchy fog already being observed at KEWN and KPGV and more fog and areas of stratus are likely overnight, especially west of the Highway 17 corridor. Lows should be in the low to mid 50s at most inland areas with near 60 degrees along the central Outer Banks. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... As of 225 PM Monday...High pressure will continue over the area with dry conditions. Morn fog and low clouds inland shld grad dissipate and expect PC skies in the aftn with highs mostly low/mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 4 AM Mon...High pressure keeps settled weather conditions in place through mid week. A complex low pressure/frontal system will lift from the Gulf Coast and TN Valley then zoom across the eastern US, bringing unsettled weather Thursday into early Friday. Tuesday night and Wednesday...High pressure should dominate this period, as fairly strong upr ridge will reside over the swrn Atlantic keeping dry and warm conditions in place over ern NC. Continued above climo temps with highs in the 70s, possibly around 80 by Wed. Lows Tue night seasonably cool with high pres and light winds, with readings in the 50s. Thursday and Friday...Hurricane Zeta, which will make landfall on the central Gulf Coast late Wednesday, will then move quickly through the interior Southeastern CONUS Thursday. The exact track of this system is still uncertain, but the overall expectation is increased deep moisture transport across the Southeast and a more warm/humid/unsettled period as the tropical system gets absorbed in a fast moving shortwave that will move quickly eastward. 26/00Z GFS continues furthest east and therefore wetter on Thu with the track through the Appalachians, while the ECMWF/UKMET bring the system through the TN Valley and are dry until the main shortwave and cold front move through Thu night. Have therefore continued only chc pops for the day Thu, highest Coastal Plains, while bumping pops to likely Thu night, in tandem with main shortwave and fropa. Conditions improve drastically on Fri, with strong CAA and blustery nwrly winds brining sharply colder temps. Highs Thur very warm in the low 80s most locales with increasing swrly winds, with Thu night lows in the 60s. Saturday through Sunday...Coolest airmass of the season on tap with aforementioned fropa and subsequent cool high pres building in. Highs will struggle towards 60 degrees many areas on Sat, with lows Sat night well down into the 40s. Coolest ECM MOS indicating some upper 30s possible interior zones. Temps moderate towards climo by Sun with highs 65-70. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Short Term /Through 00Z Weds/... As of 710 PM Monday...Skies are generally clear early this evening, and winds have already decoupled at all TAF sites. High-resolution and MOS guidance shows optimal conditions for radiational fog overnight and have continue to indicate IFR/LIFR conditions in fog and low stratus, from after midnight into Tuesday morning for all TAF sites. The low clouds should diminish by mid-morning Tuesday with VFR conditions expected during the afternoon. Long Term /Tuesday night through Friday/... As of 4 AM Mon...VFR conditions prevail most of the period. Will have typical threat of late night and early morn fog/stratus. By later Thu wl start to see some shra develop ahead of next system with sub VFR poss at times. Breezy conditions will develop with this strong system. && .MARINE... Short Term /through Tue/... As of 10 PM Monday...Winds continue mostly Northerly at 10-15 knots with a few higher gusts around Diamond Shoals with seas 4-5 feet over the northern tier and 3-4 feet down south. winds will diminish to 10 kt toward morning. Light winds are expected Tue as the high builds overhead. Seas will be subsiding to 2 to 4 ft Tuesday afternoon. Overall, minimal changes to the marine forecast on this update. Long Term /Tuesday night through Friday/... As of 4 AM Mon...High pressure dominates thru Wednesday, bringing more favorable marine conditions with general 5-10 kt winds and 3 to 4 ft seas. Strong cold front and low pressure system approach on Thu, with winds and seas increasing to SCA levels in strengthening swrly flow. Some gales possible ahead of the system Thu evening, and once again on back side of exiting low on Fri. Seas respond by building 6-10 ft Thu into Fri. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...CTC SHORT TERM...RF LONG TERM...TL AVIATION...RF/CTC/TL MARINE...RF/CTC/TL

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