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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KMHX 301105
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
705 AM EDT Thu Jun 30 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in from the north today and pushes
offshore this weekend and into early next week with rain chances
increasing.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 7 AM Thu... The latest obs show that fog has begun to lift
across the FA this morning with visibilities finally beginning
to increase. Fog should quickly dissipate within the next hour
or so as the sun continues to rise and fog mixes out this
morning. Otherwise upper level ridge continues to build into the
Mid- Atlantic today, which translates to mainly dry conditions.
Cannot rule out an iso shower for coastal counties early, then
transitioning inland through the afternoon with daytime heating.
No thunder threat as instability will be fairly weak and no
upper support available. Highs will be in the upper 80s interior
to low/mid 80s coastal counties.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
As of 330 AM Thu... Ridging remains in place keeping us dry for the
most part Thursday evening as light S-SE`rly winds continue to
persist across the FA. With skies once again forecast to clear and
little in the way of wind around the region tonight, another threat
for some fog, though likely less dense than this mornings activity
will be possible. Otherwise lows get down into the low 70s across
the FA tonight as dewpoints stay around 70 as well and low level
thicknesses change little.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 300 AM Thu...High pressure just offshore will circulate
warm, unstable air across eastern NC late this week through much
of next week. As the somewhat moist and unstable air interacts
with diurnal heating and weak impulses aloft, scattered showers
and thunderstorms will result, especially in the afternoons and
evenings inland, and along the immediate coast late nights into
the morning hours. Temperatures will be near July normals
through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHORT TERM /through Thursday night/...
As of 7AM Thu... Fog has begun to lift across the CWA this
morning with EWN reaching VFR ceilings and visibilities as of
this update. PGV/OAJ/ISO will follow shortly and quickly
transition from IFR/MVFR visibilities to VFR conditions as well
within the next hour or so. VFR conditions are then forecast
through the remainder of the TAF period with partly cloudy skies
across all TAF sites. Winds turn SErly in the aftn at about
5-10 knots with an iso shower possible. As we get into tonight
there is a weak signal for some fog development with the GLAMP
showing some lowering of the visibilities late tonight into
early tomorrow morning. However, given the uncertainty with this
solution have left any mention of lower vis out of the TAFs for
this update.

LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 300 AM Thu...Mostly VFR conditions are expected into
early next week as high pressure remains offshore. Scattered
mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms each day
could produce occasional periods of sub-VFR conditions.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 320 AM Thu... High pressure is now located offshore the
coast this morning and will move little throughout the day
today. This will continue to bring 5-10 kt E to SE winds across
all waters this morning with winds increasing slightly closer to
10-15 knots by this afternoon. WInds decrease once again
tonight down to 5-10 knots while becoming more southerly as the
high shifts slightly E`wards. Seas through the period will
remain around 2-3 ft.

LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 300 AM Thu...High pressure just off of the coast will
produce a S/SW flow mainly 10-15 kt through early next week. The
guidance is indicating that winds could increase to 15-20 kt
Sunday. Seas will be 2-4 ft through the period with some 5
footers possible over the outer waters Sunday if the stronger
flow materializes.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RCF
SHORT TERM...RCF
LONG TERM...RM/JME
AVIATION...JME/RCF
MARINE...JME/RCF