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000
FXUS62 KMHX 182002
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
402 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to ridge into the region from
offshore, though rain chances will increase as a weak trough
crosses the area tonight and tomorrow. A weak front will cross
the region early Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 300 PM Tues...High pressure continues to ridge into the
area this afternoon, with SW winds continuing. Scattered
convection along the sea breeze will continue to propagate
inland, and have chance PoPs through the evening before showers
dissipate. A coastal trough is then expected to move up the SE
coast tonight, and contribute to additional development of
showers and thunderstorms especially along the coast. Have
chance PoPs to likely PoPs along the immediate coastline with
the heaviest rain occurring in the overnight hours into tomorrow
morning. Could also see a stronger storm with shear increasing,
but think severe threat is still very low. Low temps are
expected to be very warm again, mostly in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
As of 320 PM Tue...The coastal trough will move offshore
tomorrow morning, however an upper level trough will still remain
over the region tomorrow, with a few impulses moving through in
the afternoon. So am expecting ongoing shower and thunderstorms
mostly along the coast in the morning, and then a lull from late
morning into the early afternoon. Then, scattered to widespread
thunderstorms are expected to develop in the afternoon and
continue into the evening hours. Severe parameters are decent,
with shear of ~25 kts, and MUCAPEs approaching 2000 J/kg, so
couldn`t rule out a strong to severe wind gust, but large
amounts of cloud cover should limit the potential. High temps
will be slightly cooler, mainly in the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 310 PM Tuesday...Unsettled weather will continue through
at least Thursday before a somewhat drier pattern develops
Friday into the weekend. Another shortwave will approach early
this week, once again enhancing rain chances.

Wednesday Night through Thursday...The combination of deep
moisture with precipitable water values close to 2 inches, and a
strong mid-level shortwave will lead to high chances of showers
and a few thunderstorms Wednesday Night and Thursday. The
surface ridge offshore will weaken. A weak surface trough inland
will lead to an increased gradient and gusty SW winds Wednesday
Night and Thursday. Very warm temperatures expected Wednesday
night with lows in the mid 70s and highs upper 80s coast and
low/mid 90s inland.

Friday through Tuesday...Weak ridging aloft develops Friday and
continues through the weekend. Precipitable water values drop
significantly for Friday and will keep the forecast dry for
Friday, Friday night and Saturday. Some sea breeze convection
looks to return for Sunday and Monday as moisture creeps back
into the area and temperatures rise back into the lower 90s
inland and upper 80s coast. The surface trough well to the west
sharpens a bit on Tuesday, but rain coverage will remain
limited due to minimal surface forcing in our area.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term /through Tomorrow Afternoon/...
As of 330 PM Tues...Some scattered thunderstorms are expected
through this evening. And, aside from some brief periods within
showers, VFR conditions will continue into the overnight hours.
However MVFR and possibly IFR conditions are possible heading
into tomorrow morning. Low level stratus is again expected to
develop, and looks to be more widespread tonight. Towards
sunrise, IFR conditions may develop especially closer to the
coast, including KEWN and KOAJ, but confidence is not high
enough to include in the TAF. VFR conditions then return by mid
morning tomorrow, with more widespread showers and thunderstorms
expected.

Long Term /Wednesday Night through Sunday/...
As of 315 PM Tuesday...Scattered to numerous showers and a few
tstms are expected Wednesday night into Thursday with periods of
sub-VFR conditions. Could also see some patches of morning fog
Thursday morning in areas that receive rainfall. Gusty SW winds
are expected Wednesday Night into Thursday Night, becoming W on
Friday. Predominant VFR conditions expected Friday into Saturday
as dry air filters in behind cold front.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Through Tomorrow Night/...
As of 330 PM Tue...A brief period of diurnally driver gusty
winds is expected again across the Pamlico Sound and coastal
waters north of Cape Hatteras through this evening, with wind
gusts 25-30 kts. Will handle with a Marine Weather Statement
again.

Winds elsewhere are currently SW 15-20 kts, and seas are 2-3 ft.
Expect winds to remain fairly steady through tomorrow, and then
increase again (a bit stronger) tomorrow afternoon and evening.
Will issue a SCA for the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet
as well as the Pamlico, Croatan, and Roanoke Sounds for strong
wind gusts 25-30 kts and building seas to 6 feet by tomorrow
evening across the coastal waters.

Long Term /Wednesday Night through Sunday/...
As of 325 PM Tuesday...The pressure gradient will increase
between high pressure retreating offshore and a sharpening
surface trough inland Wednesday night into Thursday night.
Expecting SW winds of 15-25 knots, with gusts to 30 knots
especially later on Thursday into Thursday night. Winds veer to
westerly on Friday behind the cold front and gradually diminish
to 15-20 knots later in the day. SCA conditions will be likely
during this period. With weak high pressure to the north, light
northerly winds expected Friday night into Saturday, before
becoming SW 10-15 knots Sunday as high pressure re-establishes
itself offshore.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SGK
SHORT TERM...SGK
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/SGK
MARINE...CTC/SGK