Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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236 FXUS62 KMHX 151834 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 234 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Unsettled weather continues today as a trough axis moves through the region. Summer-like weather arrives late this week as a ridge of high pressure builds through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 235 PM Thu... KEY MESSAGES - Conditional severe thunderstorm risk late this afternoon and evening, best chances across the northern forecast area between 5-11 PM. Latest analysis shows wavy front draped through the Mid-Atlantic with weak troughing extending through the Carolinas. Isolated seabreeze showers beginning to develop now. This afternoon, heating of a moist boundary layer should lead to a gradual erosion of the cap, with most guidance suggesting an area of moderate to strong instability developing (MLCAPE of 2000-3000j/kg). Meanwhile, northwesterly flow aloft overtop south to southwest SFC winds should lead to deep layer shear increasing to 30-40kt. The overlap of strong instability and moderate shear is more anomalous for this time of year. Essentially we will be overlapping summer instability with spring shear. At face value, the shear/instability combo today is more than sufficient for severe thunderstorms, including the potential for some higher end severe weather. However, convection this afternoon and evening will be fighting against warming temps aloft and upper level ridging building in from the SW. At the sfc, forcing looks to be primarily driven by sea/bay/river breezes, as well as a weak lee trough. Aloft, a mid-level shortwave translating east out of the TN Valley may also provide some support for lift. Short-term guidance remains in good agreement depicting isolated to scattered convective development where lift is maximized...best chances across the northern portions of the forecast area. Of note, some guidance is a bit more aggressive, showing supercells upstream congealing into one or two clusters that eventually move SE towards the coast during the evening hours. With any deep convection that can develop, and be sustained, the environment appears supportive of some higher end severe weather (large hail of golf ball size or larger, and damaging winds of 70+ mph). A low-end tornado potential appears evident as well, although higher LCLs and weaker low-level flow should keep this risk limited/more brief in nature. Lastly, should clusters of thunderstorms develop, there would be a locally enhanced wind risk. This appears to be one of those potential high impact, but low confidence scenarios. The environment supports some higher end severe potential, but the above-mentioned limitations make it unclear whether or not deep convection can develop and be sustained. Warming temps aloft and mid/upper level ridging should lead to a gradual decrease in convective coverage and intensity after midnight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
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As of 235 PM Thu... KEY MESSAGES - Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms possible in the afternoon and evening Ridge continues to build Friday combined with SW winds will usher in a very warm airmass. Though dependent on cloud cover, will likely see temps climb into the low 90s inland (possible mid 90s) and low to upper 80s for the beaches. Main question will be the convective potential Fri afternoon and evening. Strength of the ridge should limit widespread convection, though with sea/sound breezes, the strong instability (ML CAPE 3-4000 J/kg) and shear, there is potential for isolated to widely scattered development (best chances across the northern 2/3 of the area. If any showers or storms are able to develop there is potential for a few stronger storms given the instability in place.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 0400 Thursday... Hot again on Saturday in downsloping flow, push highs into the lower or mid 90s with dew points still in the upper 60s. Heat indices in the upper 90s FRI, mid 90s SAT. Westerly flow intersecting the sea breeze could produce isolated storms during the afternoon with a slight uptick in rain chances during the evening as a cold front approaches the area, crossing overnight. Followed by a secondary backdoor front end of the weekend. Quiet and relatively cool early through midweek ahead of the next vertically stacked low to dig toward the Carolinas late week.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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SHORT TERM /through Friday/... As of 235 PM Thu... KEY MESSAGES - Modest TSRA potential through late this afternoon and evening, with potential for brief periods of sub-VFR VFR conditions expected through the period, outside of convection. With daytime heating and destabilization, isolated to scattered TSRA may redevelop by late afternoon into the evening hours. There are a couple of limiting factors for TSRA later today into tonight, however if TSRA manage to develop, there will be a subsequent risk of large hail (>1" in diameter) and 50-60kt+ winds. A low-end tornado risk appears evident as well. Sub-VFR conditions would occur with any TSRA as well. It appears that the TSRA risk will gradually decrease late tonight, with isolated chances Friday afternoon and evening. LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/... As of 0400 Thursday...Shower chances decrease late this week and into the weekend, but isolated to scattered coverage will be possible each day (primarily during the afternoon).
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&& .MARINE...
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SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 235 PM Thu... KEY MESSAGES - Thunderstorms risk returns this afternoon and this evening Latest obs show SW winds 5-15 kt with seas 2-4 ft this afternoon. Modest southwesterly flow of 10-20 kt expected through tonight. Within this flow, occasional gusts up to 25 kt will be possible across the central waters and the Pamlico Sound. However, the risk doesn`t appear significant enough to warrant any marine headlines. The modest southwesterly flow will keep seas elevated (3-5 ft). Similar pattern expected Fri, SW 5-15 kt early increasing to 10-20 kt late. The thunderstorm risk returns late afternoon into this evening, with sct coverage. Where thunderstorms develop this afternoon and evening, there will be a risk of large hail and wind gusts in excess of 50kt. LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/... As of 0400 Thursday...Boating conditions deteriorate Saturday ahead of the next cold front to cross area waters leading to probable SCA conditions in SWerly 15-25kt winds SAT afternoon and evening. Secondary backdoor front sinks S across waters late Sunday. High pressure builds in with Nerly surge late SUN night/MON AM. Generally 10-15kt winds slowly through early week N-NEerly Tuesday becoming Eerly Wednesday as offshore high departs SEward and next low approaches from the W.
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&& .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...CQD SHORT TERM...CQD LONG TERM...CEB AVIATION...CQD/CEB MARINE...CQD/CEB