Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 072128 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 528 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2020 .SYNOPSIS... A series of weak mid-level disturbances will move across the area into Thursday with a mainly dry cold front pushing through the area late Thursday. A stronger low pressure area and cold front may impact the region next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 415 PM Tuesday...A weak shortwave pushing across the Mid- Atlantic has allowed for convective development across the VA piedmont which is pushing into mainly northern portions of the CWA late this afternoon. Similar instability and shear parameters to yesterday with CAPE around 1000J/Kg and bulk shear around 30-40 kt, so a few storms could approach severe limits early this evening before dissipating by late evening with loss of heating. Pressure gradients between a weak surface low moving into the Mid-Atlantic and high pressure off the Southeast coast will keep the boundary layer mixed tonight and not anticipating fog development. The winds will also limit radiational cooling with low tonight only in the mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM /Wednesday/... As of 430 PM Tuesday...Another weak shortwave and attendant surface low will push across the Mid-Atlantic coast Wednesday before moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast in the evening. Most of the day is expected to be dry, however scattered thunderstorms expected to develop across the VA Blue Ridge and push toward the area through the afternoon. SW winds continue to bring good WAA allowing for a bit more instability with 1500+ J/kg of MLCAPE while bulk shear continues around 40 kt so some storms could once again approach severe levels and SPC has the region outlooked in a marginal risk of severe. Highs expected to be a couple of degrees warmer than today, well into the 80s while coastal sections will remain in the mid to upper 70s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 330 AM Tue...Mainly dry and warm conditions expected through the middle of the week, with a moisture-starved cold frontal passage late Thursday bringing a cool-off Friday into Saturday. There is increasing confidence in the next storm system impacting the area beginning Sunday. Wednesday night...A weak shortwave crossing the Mid-Atlantic will spawn a weak surface low during the day Wednesday before moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast in the evening. Scattered thunderstorms along the VA Blue Ridge could result in an outflow /pseudo-cold front that the surface low will usher into eastern NC in the late afternoon, crossing through the evening. A few isolated storms could develop along this boundary, especially if it interacts with any lingering sea breeze boundary. Ongoing WAA and sunny skies will allow for 1500+ J/kg of MLCAPE to go with the ~30 kt of bulk shear in place. Thus, despite modest coverage, and storms that do develop will have the potential to become strong to severe, with hail and damaging winds being the primary concern. Any storms that do form will wane with cooling Wednesday night, and dry conditions ensue by the late night hours. Clearing skies and calm winds late will lead to efficient radiational cooling and shallow fog is possible, especially for any locations that received rainfall. Thursday through Saturday...Subsidence aloft and southwest low level flow will once again bring warm and mainly dry conditions on Thursday. Low level thickness values support highs returning into the mid to upper 80s, with a few locations reaching 90 not out of the question. A moisture-starved cold front will approach from the west and cross the area late Thursday. While there will be an increase in cloud cover with the front, the lack of deep layer moisture keeps a dry forecast in place, with the much more significant impact of the cold front being the noticeable airmass chance. High pressure building into the area will keep dry conditions in place Friday and Saturday, with temps below normal both days. Efficient radiational cooling is expected Friday night, with lows dipping into the 30s, and the potential for frost, away from the beaches Saturday morning. Sunday and Monday...The end of the forecast period is becoming a bit more clear as global guidance is converging on a solution of low pressure developing over the south central US and lifting inland of the area early Sunday into Monday. This would keep us in the warm sector of the system, with deep moisture transport indicating the potential for a wet period, with the severe threat dependent on the track of the low. && .AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Short Term /through Wednesday/... As of 3 PM Tuesday...Pred VFR conditions expected through the TAF period, though could briefly see sub-VFR conditions with isolated convection late this afternoon and early evening with PGV having the better chance of being impacted by storms. Gradients remain pinched overnight and light SW winds should be sufficient to preclude fog development tonight. Another round of convection possible late Wed afternoon into the evening hours. Long Term /Wednesday through Sunday/... As of 330 AM Tue...VFR prevails through the long term, though a warm and humid airmass could prompt the development of some early morning radiation fog Thursday morning. Southwesterly flow will be breezy during the days Wednesday and Thursday ahead of a cold front that will arrive late Thursday, ushering in lighter northwesterly flow that will then prevail into the weekend. && .MARINE... Short Term /through Tonight/... As of 320 AM Tues...High pressure remains centered off the Southeast coast with a low pressure area moving across the northern mid-Atlantic states tonight serving to tighten the pressure gradients tonight into Wed. SW winds expected to increase overnight into Wednesday, highest along the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet with 15-25 kt and gusts up to 30 kt developing this evening and seas building to 5-8 ft. Long Term /Wednesday night through Saturday/... As of 330 AM Tues...Breezy southwesterly flow prevails into Thursday night as a weak low moves off the Mid-Atlantic coast Wednesday and a cold front approaches from the west Thursday. Winds become moderate northwest Friday before trending lighter on Saturday as high pressure moves overhead. Southerly windswell keeps elevated seas, around 4-7 ft, in place through Wednesday night, with SCAs for the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet in place accordingly. Seas then subside to 2-4 ft for most of the waters Thursday into the weekend. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 445 PM Tuesday...A perigean spring tide will bring elevated tidal levels today through the end of the week. Minor inundation of very low lying areas is possible around the times of primarily the evening high tide cycles, especially near inlets and along the beaches. Total water level forecasts indicating Beaufort tide gauge reaching minor flooding with this evening`s high tide and have issued a CFW for Carteret and Onslow Counties. Other locations remain a little below minor flooding levels this evening, however subsequent higher high tide forecasts indicating minor flooding possible along the Outer Banks as well and coastal sections of Carteret and Onlsow at least for Wednesday and Thursday evening. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ195- 196-199. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ152-154- 156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...SK/SGK SHORT TERM...SGK LONG TERM...CB AVIATION...SK/SGK/CB MARINE...SK/SGK/CB TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX

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