Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 241035 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 635 AM EDT Thu Jun 24 2021 .SYNOPSIS... A boundary stalled off the North Carolina coast will move back onshore as a warm front tonight into Friday. High pressure then builds back into the area this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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As of 635 AM Thu...No changes to the overnight update. Prev disc...Very quiet and unseasonably cool early morning over eastern NC thus far with high pressure centered over the Gulf of Maine ridging southwest in the Carolinas. A very weak upper trough over the mid-Atlantic is encouraging some thin cirrus development over the CWA but expect this to dissipate as upper support fades. Pleasant conditions this morning begin to deteriorate by late afternoon as a stalled offshore trough/front retrogrades back towards the coast as weak low pressure lifts into the Delmarva peninsula. This will bring an increase of clouds and low-level moisture from east to west with a few sprinkles or showers possible as well. Temperatures today perhaps a degree or two warmer than yesterday but with cooler NE flow again expecting only 70s around the Albemarle Sound region with low 80s along and south of US 70.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/... As of 340 AM Thu...Offshore boundary will continue to slowly lift back across eastern NC overnight with a gradual increase in shower coverage from the southeast. A few thunderstorms appear probable for at least coastal locales overnight as more unstable airmass advects in behind the front. Low temperature forecast tricky and dependent on how quickly the coastal front (and much more moist airmass) moves into the area. Favored a forecast around the guidance mean, with lows in the mid 60s west of US 70 but upper 60s to low 70s east. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 320 AM Thursday...A frontal boundary offshore will move back toward the coast early Friday and move inland during the day. With precipitable water values surging back above 2 inches, the front will trigger scattered to numerous showers, with a few embedded thunderstorms possible and have high chance to likely PoPs for Friday, especially in the morning. Parameters do not support severe weather and overall average QPF amounts will be at one-quarter inch or less. Fairly uniform high temperatures on Friday with highs in the mid 80s with a decent amount of cloud cover. For the weekend into the middle of next week, mid-level high pressure expands west from the Atlantic as the Bermuda ridge sets up at the surface. Weak daily trough will occur over the Piedmont. Precipitable water values remain at or above 2 inches through midweek. This combination of factors will produce a daily threat of scattered showers and thunderstorms and have PoPs in the climatologically normal 30-40 percent, mainly inland through the period. High temperatures climb from the mid 80s over the weekend, into the upper 80s Monday through Wednesday. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM /through 12Z Friday/... As of 135 AM Thu...VFR conditions expected now through most of the day today, before cigs lower to MVFR along and east of a line from roughly KDPL to KMQI as coastal trough lifts across eastern NC from the southeast. A few scattered showers are possible with this feature for the same region with the potential for brief localized periods of IFR. LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/... As of 320 AM Thursday...A frontal boundary slips moves onshore early Friday. Given high precipitable water values, scattered to numerous showers are likely, especially early Friday, with a few thunderstorms possible as well. This will produce some sub- VFR conditions Friday. For Saturday through Monday, a more typical summer regime is likely with scattered showers and storms along the sea breeze in the afternoon and evening hours. Some patchy fog may occur at night bringing brief reductions in vsby. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /Today and Tonight/... As of 345 AM Thu...Conditions over the waters gradually improving early this morning. Prevailing NE wind of 10-20 kt courtesy of pinched pressure gradient between ridge of high pressure inland and sharp trough/front roughly 150 nm off the coast of Hatteras. Seas are predominantly 4-5 feet although wouldn`t be surprised to see a few 6 footers for outer waters. Expecting NE winds to continue through the day as boundary begins to approach the coast as a weak low lifts towards the Delmarva peninsula. NE winds of 15 to occasionally 20 kt tonight before gradually veering SE as front pushes inland. Seas continue to gradually fall through the period, reaching a low of 3-4 feet by Fri morning. Since winds and seas are improving slightly faster than expected, trimmed back the expiration time of central water SCA. LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/... As of 325 AM Thursday...With high pressure at the surface and aloft building west from the Atlantic through the period, a fairly consistent pattern develops. Expect SE winds 10-15 knots and seas 2-4 feet for the most part through the extended period. Small Craft Advisory conditions are not expected. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ203-205. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...MS SHORT TERM...MS LONG TERM...CTC AVIATION...CTC/MS MARINE...CTC/MS

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