Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 201930 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 330 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move continue to push offshore tonight. Low pressure will pass well north of the area Sunday. High pressure will build into the region early next week and continue through mid week. A cold front will move through by late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 245 PM Saturday...Deep upr low will slowly approach from the W tonight. Moisture will remain limited ahead of this feature and expect the sct to bkn Cu over the area this aftn to diminish this evening. With winds diminishing as well expect cool lows in the 45 to 50 dgr range inland with 50s beaches. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/... As of 245 PM Saturday...The upr low will swing across the area Sunday. Combo of a little more moisture and steep lapse rates will lead to deck of Cu forming over the area with some spotty shra or sprinkles. Mdls show best potential for shra nrn tier so have slight chc pops centered over this area but cant rule out one just about anywhere. Temps will be a bit below normal for late Apr with 65 to 70 expected. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 320 PM Sat...Dry weather is forecast to prevail through mid week before another cold front brings a chance for showers or storms near the end of the work week, although uncertainty exists in the timing of this front. Sunday night...A chance of spotty showers or sprinkles lingers for the evening mainly for the northern tier as the upper low lifts to the north. Maintained a slight chance PoP for the northern tier of counties. Temperatures bottom out in the mid to upper 40s, 50s beaches. Monday through Tuesday...Subtropical high pressure is expected to ridge into the area early next week, bringing very pleasant and rain- free conditions with temps moderating each day. Highs near climo on Mon with most areas touching the mid 70s, and above climo by Tue with mid to upper 70s along the coast, low 80s inland. Wednesday through Saturday...Model spread and thus forecast certainty decreases mid-week regarding the evolution of a shortwave trough digging into the Southern Plains, developing a weak surface low with a stationary front extending east to the mid- Atlantic. The implications on eastern North Carolina`s weather is the amplitude of the aforementioned sub-tropical ridge and where this front (and precipitation) sets up. The ECMWF has a stronger ridge and keeps the front well to our north, while the GFS shows a nearly zonal pattern with the front farther south. The ECMWF has been more consistent the past few runs and leaned the forecast in its direction. This results in a drier forecast towards the end of the week before the shortwave approaches our area, with the best chance of rain at the end of the week. Uncertainty is higher than normal and only kept low end chc PoPs to account for future shifts in model trends as upper level pattern is better resolved. Temps mid week are expected to reach the low to possibly mid 80s mid week before moderating into the 70s by the weekend as mid-level thicknesses fall with the approach of the shortwave. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Short Term /through Sunday/... As of 1220 PM Saturday...VFR expected thru period. SSW winds will remain gusty thru late this aftn then diminish. Mainly sct CU this aftn shld diminish this evening with some patchy high clouds overnight. Shld have a light breeze and decent temp/dewpt spread to preclude any fog from developing. As upr low crosses Sunday expect steep lapse rates to lead to sct to bkn Cu from late morn on. Some very light shra or sprinkles poss but shld have little impact to vsbys. Long Term /Sun night through Thu/... As of 320 PM Sat...Pleasant flying conditions will dominate through mid week as sprawling high pres builds into the region. && .MARINE... Short Term /Tonight and Sunday/... As of 245 PM Saturday...Winds remain quite gusty over the region this aftn with some 30+ kt obs srn cst. The winds are expected to diminish overnight as mixing ends and grdnt loosens...speed shld be 15 kt or less late tonight with dir WSW. WSW winds 15 kt or less cont Sunday with weak sfc low to the N and high pres to the SW. Large swells will keep seas elevated along the coast with seas of 6 to 10 feet this evening dropping to 5 to 8 feet by morning and reaching 4 to 6 feet Sun aftn. Cont SCA cstl wtrs. Will cont SCA sounds and rivers into the evening for the gusty winds. Long Term /Sun night through Thu/... As of 325 PM Sat... Seas remain elevated above 6 ft through Sun night as large swell is slow to subside due in part to continued SW flow, albeit light, in the 10-15 kt range. Good boating conditions finally return by the beginning of the work week as high pres builds in. Generally light winds of 5-10 knots and seas subsiding to 2 to 4 feet give way to a steady SW flow of 10-15 knots by Wednesday, with seas building to 3 to 5 feet Wednesday into Thursday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 245 PM Sat...High Surf Advry wil come down this evening as seas near shore cont to grad subside. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195- 196-199-203>205. High Surf Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for NCZ196-204- 205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for AMZ136- 137. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ131- 230-231. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for AMZ156-158. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ150. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...RF SHORT TERM...RF LONG TERM...TL/MS AVIATION...RF/MS MARINE...RF/MS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.