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236
FXUS62 KMHX 151834
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
234 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled weather continues today as a trough axis moves through
the region. Summer-like weather arrives late this week as a
ridge of high pressure builds through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 235 PM Thu...

KEY MESSAGES

 - Conditional severe thunderstorm risk late this afternoon and
   evening, best chances across the northern forecast area
   between 5-11 PM.

Latest analysis shows wavy front draped through the Mid-Atlantic
with weak troughing extending through the Carolinas. Isolated
seabreeze showers beginning to develop now. This afternoon,
heating of a moist boundary layer should lead to a gradual
erosion of the cap, with most guidance suggesting an area of
moderate to strong instability developing (MLCAPE of
2000-3000j/kg). Meanwhile, northwesterly flow aloft overtop
south to southwest SFC winds should lead to deep layer shear
increasing to 30-40kt. The overlap of strong instability and
moderate shear is more anomalous for this time of year.
Essentially we will be overlapping summer instability with
spring shear. At face value, the shear/instability combo today
is more than sufficient for severe thunderstorms, including the
potential for some higher end severe weather. However,
convection this afternoon and evening will be fighting against
warming temps aloft and upper level ridging building in from the
SW. At the sfc, forcing looks to be primarily driven by
sea/bay/river breezes, as well as a weak lee trough. Aloft, a
mid-level shortwave translating east out of the TN Valley may
also provide some support for lift.

Short-term guidance remains in good agreement depicting
isolated to scattered convective development where lift is
maximized...best chances across the northern portions of the
forecast area. Of note, some guidance is a bit more aggressive,
showing supercells upstream congealing into one or two clusters
that eventually move SE towards the coast during the evening
hours. With any deep convection that can develop, and be
sustained, the environment appears supportive of some higher end
severe weather (large hail of golf ball size or larger, and
damaging winds of 70+ mph). A low-end tornado potential appears
evident as well, although higher LCLs and weaker low-level flow
should keep this risk limited/more brief in nature. Lastly,
should clusters of thunderstorms develop, there would be a
locally enhanced wind risk. This appears to be one of those
potential high impact, but low confidence scenarios. The
environment supports some higher end severe potential, but the
above-mentioned limitations make it unclear whether or not deep
convection can develop and be sustained.

Warming temps aloft and mid/upper level ridging should lead to
a gradual decrease in convective coverage and intensity after
midnight.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
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As of 235 PM Thu...

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms possible in the
  afternoon and evening

Ridge continues to build Friday combined with SW winds will
usher in a very warm airmass. Though dependent on cloud cover,
will likely see temps climb into the low 90s inland (possible
mid 90s) and low to upper 80s for the beaches. Main question
will be the convective potential Fri afternoon and evening.
Strength of the ridge should limit widespread convection, though
with sea/sound breezes, the strong instability (ML CAPE 3-4000
J/kg) and shear, there is potential for isolated to widely
scattered development (best chances across the northern 2/3 of
the area. If any showers or storms are able to develop there is
potential for a few stronger storms given the instability in
place.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 0400 Thursday...

Hot again on Saturday in downsloping flow, push highs into the
lower or mid 90s with dew points still in the upper 60s. Heat
indices in the upper 90s FRI, mid 90s SAT. Westerly flow
intersecting the sea breeze could produce isolated storms during
the afternoon with a slight uptick in rain chances during the
evening as a cold front approaches the area, crossing overnight.
Followed by a secondary backdoor front end of the weekend.

Quiet and relatively cool early through midweek ahead of the
next vertically stacked low to dig toward the Carolinas
late week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHORT TERM /through Friday/...
As of 235 PM Thu...

KEY MESSAGES

 - Modest TSRA potential through late this afternoon and
   evening, with potential for brief periods of sub-VFR

VFR conditions expected through the period, outside of
convection. With daytime heating and destabilization, isolated
to scattered TSRA may redevelop by late afternoon into the
evening hours. There are a couple of limiting factors for TSRA
later today into tonight, however if TSRA manage to develop,
there will be a subsequent risk of large hail (>1" in diameter)
and 50-60kt+ winds. A low-end tornado risk appears evident as
well. Sub-VFR conditions would occur with any TSRA as well. It
appears that the TSRA risk will gradually decrease late tonight,
with isolated chances Friday afternoon and evening.

LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/...
As of 0400 Thursday...Shower chances decrease late this week
and into the weekend, but isolated to scattered coverage will be
possible each day (primarily during the afternoon).
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 235 PM Thu...

KEY MESSAGES

 - Thunderstorms risk returns this afternoon and this evening

Latest obs show SW winds 5-15 kt with seas 2-4 ft this afternoon.
Modest southwesterly flow of 10-20 kt expected through tonight.
Within this flow, occasional gusts up to 25 kt will be possible
across the central waters and the Pamlico Sound. However, the
risk doesn`t appear significant enough to warrant any marine
headlines. The modest southwesterly flow will keep seas elevated
(3-5 ft). Similar pattern expected Fri, SW 5-15 kt early
increasing to 10-20 kt late. The thunderstorm risk returns late
afternoon into this evening, with sct coverage. Where
thunderstorms develop this afternoon and evening, there will be
a risk of large hail and wind gusts in excess of 50kt.

LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/...
As of 0400 Thursday...Boating conditions deteriorate Saturday
ahead of the next cold front to cross area waters leading to
probable SCA conditions in SWerly 15-25kt winds SAT afternoon
and evening. Secondary backdoor front sinks S across waters late
Sunday. High pressure builds in with Nerly surge late SUN
night/MON AM. Generally 10-15kt winds slowly through early week
N-NEerly Tuesday becoming Eerly Wednesday as offshore high
departs SEward and next low approaches from the W.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...CQD/CEB
MARINE...CQD/CEB