Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 111158 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC Issued by National Weather Service Wakefield VA 658 AM EST Tue Dec 11 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will move northeast away from the area today. High pressure will build over the region tonight through Thursday. Another strong storm system will affect the area Friday into Saturday. High pressure will gradually build in from the west early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 700 AM Tue...Improving conditions today as upr trf crosses and sfc low moves away. Light rain is lingering along the coast and should spread offshore by later this morning. Clouds shld lift and sct out thru morn with skies becoming msunny inland by noon and Outer Banks this aftn. Highs mostly 45 to 50 with poss some lower 50s srn tier. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/... As of 225 AM Tue...High pres will grad build in from the SW with mclr skies expected. Good radiational cooling inland with lows 25 to 30. Breeze will cont beaches with lows mainly 30 to 35. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 225 am Tue... High pressure along the eastern seaboard Wed and Thu will result in a brief period of dry conditions in between two very wet weather systems. Another dynamic and strong storm system will move east for the end of the week. GFS and ECMWF now in better agreement concerning the placement of what will be a cutoff mid-level low moving across the deep south with the GFS then trending a faster and a bit to the north toward the mid- Atlantic by Sunday. The primary concern with this system from the current guidance cycle is the threat of heavy rainfall, as a consensus of the GFS/ECMWF shows 2-4 inches of rain. With already swollen creeks and rivers, this could cause additional flooding of low-lying areas. Strong gusty SE/S winds will also be likely with this system. It is too early to determine the extent of the convective threat, as surface-based CAPE values are only forecast to be around 300-500 J/kg, but shear should be decent with low-level SE flow. Ahead of this system, temperatures will finally warm into the 60s for Friday in the gusty S/SE flow before falling back into the 50s Saturday with widespread clouds/rain. Sunday through Monday...High pressure will again build in from the west/northwest Sunday into Monday with a drying trend. The air behind this system will be more of a Pacific airmass, so temperatures will not be appreciably cooler with highs generally 50s and lows in the 30s, close to seasonal normals. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Short Term /through Tonight/... As of 600 am Tue...Conditions have improved to VFR (w/ MVFR BR at KEWN) as CIGS have lifted to around or above 4000 feet. With the exception of 4-5SM BR at KEWN through ~13z, VFR conditions expected through the 12z TAF period as clouds shld lift and sct out from sunrise thru mid-late morning. SKC expected by late aftn/evening as a dry airmass spreads in assoc with high pres to the SW. Long Term /Wed through Saturday/... As of 120 am Tue...VFR conditions should prevail through Thu evening with high pressure building in from the north and northeast. Showers become widespread Friday into Saturday, with periods of sub-VFR conditions likely. Gusty SE/S winds will also accompany the front Friday night and Saturday. && .MARINE... Short term /Today and tonight/... As of 225 AM Tue...As sfc low off the coast departs will see winds and seas slowly diminish through the period. NNW winds will cont at mainly 20 to 25 kt coastal wtrs today with some gusts to 30 kts early. As high pres builds in from the SW tonight NW winds will diminish to 10 to 20 kts. Seas of 7 to 12 feet early will subside to 5 to 9 feet late today and 4 to 7 feet tonight. SCA will end over Pamlico Sound later today and nrn coastal waters tonight. Long Term /Wed through Sat/... As of 225 am Tue...Elevated seas will finally go below SCA levels by Wednesday afternoon as high pressure builds in from the north and northeast. Winds will veer to E/SE at 5-15 knots for Wednesday night into Thursday. Gusty SE/S winds increase to 20-30 knots Friday into Saturday as seas rebuild to as high as 10-12 feet by Saturday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 225 AM Tue...Cont High Surf Advisory N of Cape Hat thru the morning with breaker around 8 feet. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...High Surf Advisory until noon EST today for NCZ103. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Wednesday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ156-158. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ150. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...RF/AKQ SHORT TERM...RF LONG TERM...HSA AVIATION...RF/HSA/AKQ MARINE...RF/HSA TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX

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