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009
FXUS62 KMHX 211945
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
345 PM EDT Wed Aug 21 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure offshore will extend west into Eastern North
Carolina through Thursday as a trough lingers well inland. A
cold front will slowly approach the area late this week and move
through the region this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Wednesday...Bkn band of shra and tsra extending
from Albemarle Sound to near Kinston is slowly pushing E assoc
with shrt wave. This activity will likely interact with sea brz
with best cvrg just inland from cst thru late today. Convection
shld dissipate quickly this evening and bulk of the night will
be dry with poss some shra/tsra skirting the coast late. Muggy
lows in the 70s with some beach spots poss hold around 80 with
decent SW breeze.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
As of 230 PM Wednesday...Expect typical summertime pattern of
Cu forming thru the morn with sct convection developing inland
during the aftn with little in way of upr lvl support to aid
shra/tsra. Sea breeze may be slow to push inland so will have
chc pops almost to srn cst. Highs again mainly upr 80s to lower
90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 345 PM Wed...A cold front will approach the area Friday,
and then slowly cross through the forecast area over the
weekend, leading to another period of unsettled weather which
may continue into early next week.

Thursday night...Will keep bulk of the region dry Thur night as
any convection that develops in the afternoon should wane due to
lack of upr forcing and any activity being only diurnally
driven. May see some sct showers along the immediate coast
overnight, and kept a slgt chc here.

Friday through Friday night...A cold front will slowly move
towards northern NC Friday, and will act to trigger scattered to
widespread showers and thunderstorm especially over the
northern sections of the area by later afternoon. Have chance to
likely PoPs for this region, with some heavy rain and training
cells possible. Southern zones esp near Crystal Coast and srn
OBX should remain on the dry side. Convection should ease
southward through the overnight affecting much of the FA, but at
the same time slowly weakening ending the heaviest rain threat
after midnight. High temps will reach the low 90s inland, and
the mid to upper 80s along the coast. Low temps remain warm and
muggy.

Saturday...Better agreement between model guidance has finally
been reached, and it looks like the cold front will slowly drop
through NC on Saturday, passing south of the region and off the
southern NC coast by Saturday evening. Maintained the likely
pops for especially srn zones on Sat where the best coverage of
precip is anticipated as the front moves south. Heavy rain and
training of cells is possible and flooding may be an issue,
especially considering the copious amounts of rain we have seen
this past week.

Sunday...Lesser precip covg latter half of the weekend, though
wrap around moisture due to low pres offshore will keep clouds
around and some sct showers, esp srn and ern zones. Low 80s
expected everywhere as cooler air on N to NE winds. Low temps
more seasonable, reaching the upper 60s interior to low/mid
70s beaches.

Monday through Wednesday...Model differences exist for the
start of next week, with the GFS stalling the front and
immediately bringing it back north on Monday leading to more
rain chances, while the ECMWF and CMC keeps the front south and
east and more or less with best precip covg offshore over the
Gulf Stream, with high pressure building in from the north,
keeping the area mostly dry. Will continue to hedge towards
consensus drier soln with only chance PoPs both Monday and
Tuesday, best chances nearer the coast. Cooler temperatures
will likely continue with highs only in the low to mid 80s, and
low temps into the 60s and low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term /through Thursday/...
As of 1235 PM Wednesday...VFR will cont to dominate. Sct
shra/tsra will cont thru mid/late aftn espcly ern sites but
limited cvrg with only brief impact to a terminal if at all.
Guidance is showing no fog/st again tonight so will go with
persistence fcst with pc to mclr skies. On Thu will see CU
develop thru the morn with some convection poss from mid day on
but again limited cvrg with any impacts very brief.

Long Term /Thursday night through Monday/...
As of 345 PM Wed...Mostly VFR conditions expected through
Friday morning, when scattered to more widespread convection
develops as a cold front moves into the area late in the day and
overnight. The front will slowly move south through the
airspace this weekend, leading to some periods of extended low
visibilities and ceilings with continued high chances for rain
and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Tonight and Thu/...
As of 230 PM Wednesday...Decent press grdnt expected thru pd
with offshore high pres and inland trf. Most mdls show period
of at least gusts to 25 kts for cstl wtrs and Pamlico Sound this
aftn thru most of tonight. Have issued a SCA for these wtrs to
cover the gusty winds. Winds/seas come down a bit Thu morn but
will flirt with SCA again in gusts later Thu. Seas will
generally be in the 3 to 5 foot range with poss some 6 foot seas
tonight outer central wtrs.

Long Term /Thursday night through Monday/...
As of 345 PM Wed...Some marginal SCA conditions once again
Thursday evening, as thermal gradient is maximized once again,
with winds SW 15-20 and occasional wind gusts to 25 kts. Better
chc of SCA later Friday just ahead of advancing cold front and
gusty SW winds 20-25 develop with some brief 6 ft seas possible.

Winds and seas then weaken slightly as a slow moving cold front
enters the region. Winds will turn to the W at 10-15 kts
early Saturday, and then as the front slowly sinks south
winds will turn to the N/NE behind it through the day. May see
some ocnl SCA develop again Sunday into early next week as
sustained 15-20 kt winds develop with seas approaching 6 ft.


&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...TL/SGK
AVIATION...RF/TL/SGK
MARINE...RF/TL/SGK