Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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009 FXUS62 KMHX 211945 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 345 PM EDT Wed Aug 21 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure offshore will extend west into Eastern North Carolina through Thursday as a trough lingers well inland. A cold front will slowly approach the area late this week and move through the region this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 230 PM Wednesday...Bkn band of shra and tsra extending from Albemarle Sound to near Kinston is slowly pushing E assoc with shrt wave. This activity will likely interact with sea brz with best cvrg just inland from cst thru late today. Convection shld dissipate quickly this evening and bulk of the night will be dry with poss some shra/tsra skirting the coast late. Muggy lows in the 70s with some beach spots poss hold around 80 with decent SW breeze. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/... As of 230 PM Wednesday...Expect typical summertime pattern of Cu forming thru the morn with sct convection developing inland during the aftn with little in way of upr lvl support to aid shra/tsra. Sea breeze may be slow to push inland so will have chc pops almost to srn cst. Highs again mainly upr 80s to lower 90s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 345 PM Wed...A cold front will approach the area Friday, and then slowly cross through the forecast area over the weekend, leading to another period of unsettled weather which may continue into early next week. Thursday night...Will keep bulk of the region dry Thur night as any convection that develops in the afternoon should wane due to lack of upr forcing and any activity being only diurnally driven. May see some sct showers along the immediate coast overnight, and kept a slgt chc here. Friday through Friday night...A cold front will slowly move towards northern NC Friday, and will act to trigger scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorm especially over the northern sections of the area by later afternoon. Have chance to likely PoPs for this region, with some heavy rain and training cells possible. Southern zones esp near Crystal Coast and srn OBX should remain on the dry side. Convection should ease southward through the overnight affecting much of the FA, but at the same time slowly weakening ending the heaviest rain threat after midnight. High temps will reach the low 90s inland, and the mid to upper 80s along the coast. Low temps remain warm and muggy. Saturday...Better agreement between model guidance has finally been reached, and it looks like the cold front will slowly drop through NC on Saturday, passing south of the region and off the southern NC coast by Saturday evening. Maintained the likely pops for especially srn zones on Sat where the best coverage of precip is anticipated as the front moves south. Heavy rain and training of cells is possible and flooding may be an issue, especially considering the copious amounts of rain we have seen this past week. Sunday...Lesser precip covg latter half of the weekend, though wrap around moisture due to low pres offshore will keep clouds around and some sct showers, esp srn and ern zones. Low 80s expected everywhere as cooler air on N to NE winds. Low temps more seasonable, reaching the upper 60s interior to low/mid 70s beaches. Monday through Wednesday...Model differences exist for the start of next week, with the GFS stalling the front and immediately bringing it back north on Monday leading to more rain chances, while the ECMWF and CMC keeps the front south and east and more or less with best precip covg offshore over the Gulf Stream, with high pressure building in from the north, keeping the area mostly dry. Will continue to hedge towards consensus drier soln with only chance PoPs both Monday and Tuesday, best chances nearer the coast. Cooler temperatures will likely continue with highs only in the low to mid 80s, and low temps into the 60s and low 70s. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Short Term /through Thursday/... As of 1235 PM Wednesday...VFR will cont to dominate. Sct shra/tsra will cont thru mid/late aftn espcly ern sites but limited cvrg with only brief impact to a terminal if at all. Guidance is showing no fog/st again tonight so will go with persistence fcst with pc to mclr skies. On Thu will see CU develop thru the morn with some convection poss from mid day on but again limited cvrg with any impacts very brief. Long Term /Thursday night through Monday/... As of 345 PM Wed...Mostly VFR conditions expected through Friday morning, when scattered to more widespread convection develops as a cold front moves into the area late in the day and overnight. The front will slowly move south through the airspace this weekend, leading to some periods of extended low visibilities and ceilings with continued high chances for rain and thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Short Term /Tonight and Thu/... As of 230 PM Wednesday...Decent press grdnt expected thru pd with offshore high pres and inland trf. Most mdls show period of at least gusts to 25 kts for cstl wtrs and Pamlico Sound this aftn thru most of tonight. Have issued a SCA for these wtrs to cover the gusty winds. Winds/seas come down a bit Thu morn but will flirt with SCA again in gusts later Thu. Seas will generally be in the 3 to 5 foot range with poss some 6 foot seas tonight outer central wtrs. Long Term /Thursday night through Monday/... As of 345 PM Wed...Some marginal SCA conditions once again Thursday evening, as thermal gradient is maximized once again, with winds SW 15-20 and occasional wind gusts to 25 kts. Better chc of SCA later Friday just ahead of advancing cold front and gusty SW winds 20-25 develop with some brief 6 ft seas possible. Winds and seas then weaken slightly as a slow moving cold front enters the region. Winds will turn to the W at 10-15 kts early Saturday, and then as the front slowly sinks south winds will turn to the N/NE behind it through the day. May see some ocnl SCA develop again Sunday into early next week as sustained 15-20 kt winds develop with seas approaching 6 ft. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ156-158. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ150. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...RF SHORT TERM...RF LONG TERM...TL/SGK AVIATION...RF/TL/SGK MARINE...RF/TL/SGK

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