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352
FXUS62 KMHX 131822
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
222 PM EDT Sun Oct 13 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach from the west later tonight into
Monday before slowly moving offshore Monday night. High
pressure will quickly pass through the area on Tuesday. Low
pressure will move up the east coast Wednesday, and push a cold
front offshore Wednesday night. Cooler high pressure will build
in late week and into next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Sunday...Init band of shra falling from mid lvls is
lifting NE and may clip portion of nrn cstl plain this aftn.
Main band of shra and a few tsra will move into the inland areas
later this evening then cross the region overnight. Looks like
will have enuf instab for chc tsra all area thru evening and
closer to cst overnight. Looking for widespread rainfall of 1/4
to 1/2 inch with local amounts 1/2 to 1 inch. Based on this
bumped up pops to categorical most of the area. Mild lows in the
60s expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
As of 230 PM Sunday...Weak cold front will cont to slowly
approach from the W. Lingering shra along the coast expected to
push offshore thru the morn with little to no pops for the aftn
as drier air works in. Will cont dry fcst for the aftn although
with heating may see enuf instab develop for an isold shra but
confidence too low to add pop. Will remain mild with highs
around 80 inland to mid/upr 70s cst.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 215 PM Sunday...A weak front will move across the area
Monday night with high pressure briefly building into the area
Tuesday. A stronger low pressure area and attendant cold front
will move across the area Wednesday with high pressure building
in through the rest of the week bringing a cooler and drier
airmass.

Monday Night and Tuesday...The cold push south of the area
Monday night and Tuesday with high pressure building in from the
northwest. Highs expected in the upper 70s to around 80 inland
to mid 70s along the coast both days as there will be little CAA
behind the front and return flow developing Tuesday afternoon
with the high quickly migrating offshore. Lows Monday night will
be in the mid to upper 50s inland to low to mid 60s along the
coast.

Tuesday night and Wednesday...A more robust upper level system
approaches Tuesday night with an area of low pressure developing
across the Southeast and deepening as it tracks across the
Carolina piedmont and off the Delmarva peninsula Wednesday.
Isentropic lift increases across the area Tuesday evening with
widespread precip developing across the area after midnight. A
warm front will lift across the area late Tuesday night before
the cold front pushes through in the afternoon. Modest
instability will develop in the warm sector with strong shear
and forcing present, with some chances for thunderstorms ahead
of the cold front. There will be a risk for severe storms as
well, with MUCAPE values reaching 1000-1500 J/kg, under deep
layer shear of around 40 kts...will continue to monitor. We
could see beneficial rainfall with models showing widespread QPF
amounts around 3/4 to 1 inch. Temps remain seasonably mild
ahead of the front Wednesday with highs in the mid to upper 70s,
but will see strong CAA develop late in the day and especially
overnight with lows expected in the upper 40s to lower 50s
inland to mid 50s coast.

Wednesday night through Saturday...Strong high pressure builds
in from the west Thursday and Friday bringing dry weather and a
much cooler airmass. High expected in the mid to upper 60s
with lows in the mid to upper 40s inland to low to mid 50s along
the coast. The high migrates offshore next weekend with ridging
building aloft with dry conditions persisting and max temps
warming into the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term /through Monday/...
As of 1220 PM Sunday...VFR conditions expected into the evening
with increasing clouds and sct shra and poss tsra developing
well inland. Conditions shld become MVFR to IFR later tonight
as shra become more widespread and cigs lower...best IFR chcs
late tonight to around daybreak. On Mon the shra will end
quickly from W to E in morn with conditions transitioning thru
MVFR to VFR by late morn and VFR will cont thru the aftn as
skies become mclr.

Long Term /Monday through Friday/... As of 220 PM Sunday...VFR
conditions expected through Tuesday as high pressure briefly
builds into the area. A strengthening low pressure area will
lift across the area Tuesday night into Wednesday with
widespread sub-VFR conditions in showers and isolated
thunderstorms expected. A strong cold front will push through
Wednesday afternoon with pred VFR conditions returning and
continuing through the end of the week as strong high pressure
builds in from the west. Strong south to southwest winds
expected ahead of the front and could see gusts to around 25 kt
at the terminals Tuesday night and Wednesday with a period of
gusty northwest winds late Wednesday behind the front.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Tonight thru Mon/...
As of 230 PM Sunday...Swell conts to subside with seas now 5 ft
or less and have dropped the SCA. Cold front will approach from
the W slowly with SW winds 10 to 20 kts tonight into early Mon
with winds diminishing to 5 to 15 kts later Mon with dir
becoming WSW. The swell and gusty SW winds will keep seas 3 to 5
ft into early Mon then shld subside to 2 to 4 ft late Mon.
There is small window late tonight where could see some 6 ft
seas outer central wtrs when winds peak but for now will cap at
5 ft.

Long Term /Monday night through Friday/...
As of 220 PM Sunday...The front will push through Monday night
with winds becoming northwest to north around 5-10 kt as high
pressure builds into the region, which continues to veer
northeast to east Tuesday as the high migrates offshore. Seas
subside to 2-3 ft by early Tuesday morning and continues through
Tuesday.

SCA conditions expected to return mid week as a low pressure
area will develop across the Southeast Tuesday night and then
lift across the area Wednesday. A warm front will lift across
the waters Tuesday night ahead of the low with winds becoming
south to southwest and increasing to 20-30 kt with higher gusts
and seas building to 6-10 ft. The front pushes through Wednesday
afternoon with winds becoming northwest around 15-25 kt
Wednesday, which gradually diminishes through the day Thursday.
Seas peak Wednesday afternoon and gradually subside Wednesday
night and Thursday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 230 PM Sunday... Water lvls remain quite high along the
coast and looks like could again flirt with minor flooding this
evening during next high tide so cont the coastal flood advry
from eastern Carteret N across the OBX thru later this evening.
Cont high threat of rip currents N of Cape Hatteras thru this
evening.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ203-
     205.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for NCZ196-
     203>205.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...SK/SGK
AVIATION...RF/SK
MARINE...RF/CTC/SK/SGK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX