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000
FXUS62 KMHX 072128
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
528 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of weak mid-level disturbances will move across the area
into Thursday with a mainly dry cold front pushing through the
area late Thursday. A stronger low pressure area and cold front
may impact the region next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 415 PM Tuesday...A weak shortwave pushing across the Mid-
Atlantic has allowed for convective development across the VA
piedmont which is pushing into mainly northern portions of the
CWA late this afternoon. Similar instability and shear
parameters to yesterday with CAPE around 1000J/Kg and bulk shear
around 30-40 kt, so a few storms could approach severe limits
early this evening before dissipating by late evening with loss
of heating. Pressure gradients between a weak surface low moving
into the Mid-Atlantic and high pressure off the Southeast coast
will keep the boundary layer mixed tonight and not anticipating
fog development. The winds will also limit radiational cooling
with low tonight only in the mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Wednesday/...
As of 430 PM Tuesday...Another weak shortwave and attendant
surface low will push across the Mid-Atlantic coast Wednesday
before moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast in the evening. Most of
the day is expected to be dry, however scattered thunderstorms
expected to develop across the VA Blue Ridge and push toward the
area through the afternoon. SW winds continue to bring good WAA
allowing for a bit more instability with 1500+ J/kg of MLCAPE
while bulk shear continues around 40 kt so some storms could
once again approach severe levels and SPC has the region
outlooked in a marginal risk of severe. Highs expected to be a
couple of degrees warmer than today, well into the 80s while
coastal sections will remain in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 330 AM Tue...Mainly dry and warm conditions expected through
the middle of the week, with a moisture-starved cold frontal passage
late Thursday bringing a cool-off Friday into Saturday. There is
increasing confidence in the next storm system impacting the area
beginning Sunday.

Wednesday night...A weak shortwave crossing the Mid-Atlantic
will spawn a weak surface low during the day Wednesday before
moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast in the evening. Scattered
thunderstorms along the VA Blue Ridge could result in an outflow
/pseudo-cold front that the surface low will usher into eastern
NC in the late afternoon, crossing through the evening. A few
isolated storms could develop along this boundary, especially if
it interacts with any lingering sea breeze boundary. Ongoing
WAA and sunny skies will allow for 1500+ J/kg of MLCAPE to go
with the ~30 kt of bulk shear in place. Thus, despite modest
coverage, and storms that do develop will have the potential to
become strong to severe, with hail and damaging winds being the
primary concern.

Any storms that do form will wane with cooling Wednesday night, and
dry conditions ensue by the late night hours. Clearing skies and
calm winds late will lead to efficient radiational cooling and
shallow fog is possible, especially for any locations that received
rainfall.

Thursday through Saturday...Subsidence aloft and southwest low level
flow will once again bring warm and mainly dry conditions on
Thursday. Low level thickness values support highs returning into
the mid to upper 80s, with a few locations reaching 90 not out of
the question.

A moisture-starved cold front will approach from the west and cross
the area late Thursday. While there will be an increase in cloud
cover with the front, the lack of deep layer moisture keeps a dry
forecast in place, with the much more significant impact of the cold
front being the noticeable airmass chance.

High pressure building into the area will keep dry conditions in
place Friday and Saturday, with temps below normal both days.
Efficient radiational cooling is expected Friday night, with lows
dipping into the 30s, and the potential for frost, away from the
beaches Saturday morning.

Sunday and Monday...The end of the forecast period is becoming a bit
more clear as global guidance is converging on a solution of low
pressure developing over the south central US and lifting inland of
the area early Sunday into Monday. This would keep us in the warm
sector of the system, with deep moisture transport indicating the
potential for a wet period, with the severe threat dependent on the
track of the low.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term /through Wednesday/...
As of 3 PM Tuesday...Pred VFR conditions expected through the
TAF period, though could briefly see sub-VFR conditions with
isolated convection late this afternoon and early evening with
PGV having the better chance of being impacted by storms.
Gradients remain pinched overnight and light SW winds should be
sufficient to preclude fog development tonight. Another round of
convection possible late Wed afternoon into the evening hours.

Long Term /Wednesday through Sunday/...
As of 330 AM Tue...VFR prevails through the long term, though a
warm and humid airmass could prompt the development of some
early morning radiation fog Thursday morning. Southwesterly flow
will be breezy during the days Wednesday and Thursday ahead of
a cold front that will arrive late Thursday, ushering in lighter
northwesterly flow that will then prevail into the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Tonight/...
As of 320 AM Tues...High pressure remains centered off the
Southeast coast with a low pressure area moving across the
northern mid-Atlantic states tonight serving to tighten the
pressure gradients tonight into Wed. SW winds expected to
increase overnight into Wednesday, highest along the coastal
waters south of Oregon Inlet with 15-25 kt and gusts up to 30 kt
developing this evening and seas building to 5-8 ft.

Long Term /Wednesday night through Saturday/...
As of 330 AM Tues...Breezy southwesterly flow prevails into
Thursday night as a weak low moves off the Mid-Atlantic coast
Wednesday and a cold front approaches from the west Thursday.
Winds become moderate northwest Friday before trending lighter
on Saturday as high pressure moves overhead.

Southerly windswell keeps elevated seas, around 4-7 ft, in place
through Wednesday night, with SCAs for the coastal waters south of
Oregon Inlet in place accordingly. Seas then subside to 2-4 ft for
most of the waters Thursday into the weekend.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 445 PM Tuesday...A perigean spring tide will bring
elevated tidal levels today through the end of the week. Minor
inundation of very low lying areas is possible around the times
of primarily the evening high tide cycles, especially near
inlets and along the beaches.

Total water level forecasts indicating Beaufort tide gauge
reaching minor flooding with this evening`s high tide and have
issued a CFW for Carteret and Onslow Counties. Other locations
remain a little below minor flooding levels this evening,
however subsequent higher high tide forecasts indicating minor
flooding possible along the Outer Banks as well and coastal
sections of Carteret and Onlsow at least for Wednesday and
Thursday evening.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ195-
     196-199.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ152-154-
     156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SK/SGK
SHORT TERM...SGK
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...SK/SGK/CB
MARINE...SK/SGK/CB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX