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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KMHX 290010
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
710 PM EST Tue Jan 28 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will ridge in from the northwest tonight, and
eventually slide to the north of the area by Thursday. A storm
system will develop well to the south Friday, and then another
area of low pressure will form over the area on Saturday. High
pressure looks to build in behind this system through Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 700 PM Tues...High pressure continues to build in from
the NW into tonight, providing clear skies overnight. Efficient
radiational cooling will drop temps down to upper 20s to low 30s
inland with upper 30s to low 40s along the coast.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
As of 330 PM Tues...A quiet day expected as high pressure moves
over northern portions of the CWA by the afternoon. Winds will
remain light and with an afternoon high near average. A few high
clouds will begin filtering in ahead of the next system that
will approach the area Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 240 PM Tue...Quiet weather will continue into Wednesday.
A fast moving area of low pressure will move south of the region
Wednesday night and Thursday producing a few light mainly
coastal showers. A more substantial area of low pressure is
expected to impact the region late Friday into this weekend.
High pressure will build over the area late this weekend into
early next week.

Wednesday night through Thursday Night...A strong mid-level
shortwave will dive south across the Carolinas Wednesday night
and Thursday with a surface low forming and moving well south
of our region. Guidance indicates light rain will be possible
from late Wed evening into Thu morning especially near the
coast. With the fast moving nature of this system, will
continue to keep sc/low chance pops. Low level thickness values
keep temps near to a few degrees below normal Thu with highs in
the upper 40s to low 50s. Overnight lows dropping into the 30s
inland and upper 30s to low 40s for the beaches.

Friday through Sunday...Strong mid-level shortwave trough will
dive across the Southeast and Southern Atlantic Coast Friday
night into Saturday, as strengthening sfc low pressure is
forecast to lift near the NC coast. Still some uncertainty with
exact track and timing, the GFS continues to move it right
along the NC coast while the ECMWF is a bit weaker and keeps it
just offshore. Specifics will depend on exact low track, but
there is the potential for locally heavy rain, strong winds
along the coast and minor soundside water level rises along the
Outer Banks. All guidance continues to show moderate to locally
heavy rain developing Friday night across the area, with
widespread QPF amts 0.5-1" with some higher amounts possible.
Increased pops to likely. Will keep chance pops in for Saturday
given the uncertainty but may it end up being mostly dry with
only widely scattered showers depending on track and timing of
the low and associated "dry slot". A period of strong WNW winds
is possible on the backside of the low along the coast late
Saturday night into the first part of Sunday. This could lead to
minor water level rises on the sound side of the Outer Banks.
The low should race away from the area Saturday night Sunday,
with high pressure and upper ridge building in. Mild temps
expected this weekend with highs generally in the 50s and lows
in the upper 30s inland to mid 40s along the beaches.

Monday and Tuesday...High pressure will build over the area from
the SW Sunday night and Monday. The high will shift off the
coast Monday night ahead of next approaching frontal system.
Mon looks like a pleasant day with mostly sunny skies and above
normal temps. Highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s. Tue should
continue mild though there will be a chance for showers.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Short Term /through Wednesday/...
As of 700 PM Tues...High confidence in VFR conditions will
dominate the TAF period. High pressure will continue to build
overnight and remain over the region through the TAF period.
Winds have become calm across the area, except for EWN with
winds becoming light and variable tomorrow. There is a chance
of river fog to develop at PGV late tonight, but have not been
included with this TAF issuance as confidence remains low. A
few to sct high clouds will begin filtering in tomorrow leading
to few light showers late in the period (Wed Night).

Long Term /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
As of 240 PM Tue...A few light showers may impact the eastern
TAF sites Wed night into Thursday with potential for brief sub-
VFR conditions. Better chances for widespread sub-VFR conditions
late Friday into Saturday morning as an area of low pressure is
forecast to lift along or near the NC coast and produce
widespread rain. Sat afternoon into Sunday is expected to be
pred VFR with gusty west winds.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Short Term /Tonight and Wednesday/...
As of 700 PM Tues...The latest buoy observations are showing
northerly winds 5-15 knots and seas 3-5 ft. Made minor tweak to
the wind speed forecast by lowering winds a bit based on the
latest wind observations. Otherwise, the marine forecast remains
in great shape.

Pre Dis...NW winds will continue to drop from 10-15 kts to
around 8-14 kts after midnight. Seas will start out at 3-5 feet
late afternoon, but gradually drop to a predominant 2-4 feet
after midnight. During the day Wednesday, high pressure will
settle across the northern shores during the day. N winds will
stay around 5-10 kts along the southern waters with NNW winds
around 10-15 kts for waters N of Cape Lookout. Seas will remain
steady at 1-3 ft for the southern waters and 2-4 ft N of Cape
Lookout.

Long Term /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
As of 240 PM Tue...Strong winds and elevated seas possible this
weekend.

Moderate N/NE flow 15-20 kt is expected Wed night into Thu night
with seas 3-5 ft. The N/NE winds diminish a bit Friday/Fri night
5-15 kt as weak coastal trough may develop off the coast. Will
continue seas 2-4 ft through Fri though some 5 ft seas will be
possible over the outer waters Wed night/Thu.

A strong mid-level shortwave trough will dive across the
Southeast and Southern Atlantic Coast Friday night into
Saturday, as strengthening sfc low pressure is forecast to lift
near the NC coast. Still some uncertainty with exact track and
timing, the GFS continues to move it right along the NC coast
while the ECMWF is a bit weaker and keeps it just offshore. So
still a bit of uncertainty with exact wind speeds and seas,
which will be very dependent on exact track of sfc low.
Will indicate strong SCA level westerly winds (20-30 kt)
beginning Saturday night and elevated 6 ft+ seas developing
late Fri night. There will be potential for Gale force winds,
with best chances on the backside of the low Saturday night into
Sunday morning. With offshore flow seas should peak at 5-8 ft
Sat night into Sunday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...BM/CB/ML
SHORT TERM...CB/ML
LONG TERM...JME/CQD
AVIATION...JME/BM/ML
MARINE...JME/BM/CB/ML