Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 181037 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 537 AM EST Tue Dec 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build over the area through mid week. Another wet storm system is forecast to impact the area Thursday into Friday. High pressure will build over the area over the weekend into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 535 AM Tuesday...No changes to previous thinking High pressure will build over the area from the NW today. Cold advection and associated northerly flow will result in cooler temperatures today despite sunny skies. A thin veil of Cirrus clouds will move into the area this afternoon into early evening. Highs will range from the lower 50s inland to the mid to upper 40s coast. Brisk winds this morning will diminish this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/... As of 235 AM Tuesday...High pressure is forecast to crest over the area tonight producing continued clear skies and light winds. Resulting strong radiational cooling will produce cold low temps in the upper 20s to lower 30s inland and lower to middle 30s coast. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 250 AM Tuesday...High pressure will move offshore Wednesday as another storm system lifts west and north of the area Thursday into Friday. High pressure builds in again from the west for the upcoming weekend. Wednesday and Wednesday night...High pressure will begin to slide offshore Wednesday as low-level SE/S flow increases Wednesday night. Precipitable water values will surge to almost 1.5 inches by late Wednesday night and will raise PoPs slightly near the coast after 06Z Thursday as a few warm advection showers will develop. Highs temperatures on Wednesday will be in the low/mid 50s, but will only drop to the mid 40s to lower 50s as strong warm-air advection kicks in Wednesday night. Thursday through Friday...Longer range models continue to be in good agreement showing cut off upper level low tracking across the Deep South then turning up the mid-Atlantic Coast by Friday as strengthening surface low moves west across the mountains and to our north. Deep moisture will arrive by later on Thursday as precipitable water values surge to nearly 2 inches, well above the normal for this time of year. Model QPF continues to consistently show 2-3 inches across our CWA, with localized higher amounts, especially along the central Outer Banks, where the GFS shows up to 5 inches of rainfall. Flood potential will need to be monitored given the extraordinary excess of rainfall that has occurred in the region over the past 4 months. Gusty winds will also accompany this storm system. Will also continue to mention a chance of a few thunderstorms Thursday afternoon into Thursday night as surface-based CAPE values of 500-750 J/kg are seen in some of the guidance. With the gusty S/SE winds, temperatures will be much milder, reaching the mid/upper 60s for Thursday and low/mid 60s Friday with lows remaining in the 50s. Friday Night through Monday...Precipitation should move offshore Friday evening as high pressure builds in from the west for the weekend. With no real Arctic air anticipated, temperatures should be normal for the weekend with highs generally in the 50s and lows in the 30s. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Short Term /through Tonight/... As of 535 AM Monday...VFR conditions expected across the area through tonight as dry high pressure builds over the area. Could see N winds gust into the mid teens this morning with winds becoming calm overnight. Long Term /Wednesday through Saturday/... As of 3 AM Tuesday...VFR conditions should prevail on Wednesday as high pressure gradually shifts offshore. Widespread areas of sub-VFR ceilings and vsbys are likely starting Thursday afternoon into Friday as a strong storm system brings showers, a few thunderstorms and gusty winds to the TAF sites. Conditions should improve to VFR as the storm exits late Friday night and Saturday. && .MARINE... Short term /through Tonight/... As of 535 AM Tuesday...No changes to previous thinking. Continue the SCA`s for the Sounds and near shore waters today. Ongoing northerly surge 15-25 kt this morning is forecast to diminish this afternoon to 10 to 20 kt, then as high pressure crests over the waters tonight winds will diminish to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas will build to 4-7 ft today (highest over the northern and central waters), then subside to 2-4 ft late tonight as winds become light. Long Term /Wednesday through Saturday/... As of 3 AM Tuesday...As high pressure shifts offshore on Wednesday, winds should veer from NE to more E/SE, but will remain light at 10 knots or less. With an approaching storm system, winds and seas ramp up Thursday into Friday with Gale Force winds possible Thursday night as SE/S winds of 25-35 knots are expected with gusts to near 40 knots possible. Seas build to as high as 10-15 feet by Thursday night. These rough conditions will persist into the weekend as strong low pressure passes to the west and north of our area. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ135- 156-158. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for AMZ130- 131. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ150- 152-154. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...JME SHORT TERM...JME LONG TERM...CTC AVIATION...JME/CTC MARINE...JME/CTC

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