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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KMHX 061129
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
629 AM EST Sat Mar 6 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds into the region through the weekend
and becomes centered over the area early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
As of 630 AM Sat...Latest sfc analysis shows 1030+ mb high
pressure centered over W Ontario and Northern Plains extending
through the Central and SE US. Mid and high clouds continue to
stream into the area this morning as several disturbances round
the base of the deepening upper trough. Below normal temps will
continue today. Low level thickness values, 850 mb temps and
partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies support highs in the mid to
upper 40s along the Outer Banks, and low to mid 50s inland.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 250 AM Sat...Sfc high remains in control tonight, as
upper trough amplifies over the Eastern US and low pressure
moves off the FL coast. Mid and high clouds expected to linger
early, then gradually clearing and pushing off the coast.
Another chilly night with lows falling into the upper 20s to low
30s area wide.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 245 AM Sat...Mostly dry weather expected with high
pressure dominating through the period. Below normal temps to
start off, with temperatures gradually warming through next
week.

Sunday...High pressure continues to build over the area with
cool and dry weather expected. Offshore low will continue to
trek away from the SE coastline with impacts limited to a cool
Nrly flow on the backside. Low level thickness values support
highs in the mid 40s to low 50s with mostly sunny skies. Good
radiational cooling set up Sun night with clear skies and calm
winds. Lows in the upper 20s to low 30s, with most locations
dropping below freezing.

Monday through Thursday...Surface high continues to build into
the region from the west, bringing Nrly winds Monday before
moving overhead Tuesday. Aftn highs will remain modest with 50s
Mon and 60s Tue. High pressure will shift off the coast Wednesday
ahead of the next approaching frontal system. Winds turn Srly,
providing some warm return flow across the region Wed and Thu
with highs back into the upper 60s and 70s.

Friday...Next frontal system begins to take shape as a more
active weather pattern sets up across the Central and Northern
US. Still quite a bit of uncertainty with timing and evolution
between models, but will keep the forecast dry late week for
now. Temps remain warm in the 70s with SW flow in place.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term /through tonight/...
As of 630 AM Sat...Pred VFR conditions expected through the
period with high pressure in control. Broken mid and high clouds
will continue to stream in today, gradually shifting off the
coast and clearing tonight.

Long Term /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 255 AM Sat...Pred VFR conditions expected through the
period with high pressure in control.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through tonight/...
As of 630 AM Sat...Latest obs show N winds 10-20 kt with seas
2-4 ft. Mini northerly surge, 15-20 kt ongoing early this
morning. CAA weakens today and the gradient relaxes with high
pressure in control. Flow becomes more W-N 5-15 kt by late
morning and afternoon and 5-10 kt this evening. Light winds this
evening with seas 2-3 ft. Gradient will gradually tighten
overnight as low pressure moves off the SE coast. Northerly
winds increasing to 15-20 kt by early Sun morning, with seas
building to 2-4 ft.

Long Term /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 300 AM Sat...Gradient tightens Sunday as low pressure
passes well southeast of the waters. A few gusts to 25 kt will
be possible across the outer central waters Sunday and Sunday
evening, with seas building to 3-5 ft. Moderate northerly winds
continue Mon morning diminishing to 5-15 kt by afternoon and
seas subsiding to 2-4 ft. High pressure will move overhead Tue
and just Wed, gradually shifting winds to the SW around 5-10
kts. Seas will remain calm around 1-3 ft.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...ML/CEB
AVIATION...CQD/ML
MARINE...CQD/ML