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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KMHX 062337
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
637 PM EST Fri Dec 6 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front push across the area tonight with high pressure
building in over this weekend. A stronger cold front will move
through Tuesday night and early Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 630 PM Fri...A weak trough moving through the area this
afternoon and evening has sparked some showers across southern
NC and offshore. It has taken some time for the column to
saturate with dry air in place, but recently light rain has
been observed across the southern half of the area, and expect
scattered showers or drizzle to continue for the next few hours
before tapering off from west to east. Some scattered showers
will persist along the immediate coast through the first half
of the night as the trough and cold front move further to the
east. Then, overnight high pressure will pinch southward which
will tighten the gradient, and lead to winds and CAA increasing
just before daybreak.

Temps are currently in the low to mid 50s, and will only drop
into the mid to upper 40s through the first half of the night.
But, then as CAA increases and cloud cover decreases, temps will
plunge into the upper 30s to low 40s across most of the area
just before daybreak.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
As of 300 PM Friday...High pressure builds in from the north
with strong CAA much of the day. There may be some lingering
clouds through the morning but expect mainly sunny skies by the
afternoon. NNE winds will gusts around 20-25 mph inland to
around 30 mph along the coast. Temps will be much cooler with
highs in the low to mid 50s, coolest north.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 235 AM Fri...Unsettled weather is likely for Sunday night
through Wednesday morning as deep moisture returns ahead of a
strong cold front.

Saturday through Sunday...Strong high pressure will pass to our
north Saturday into Sunday with cooler temperatures in the
low/mid 50s Sat accompanied by gusty north winds. Rather chilly
Saturday night as winds diminish inland, allowing temperatures
to drop to the lower 30s, and upper 30s to low 40s along the Outer
Banks. With the high moving east of the area Sunday, winds veer
to E/ESE with temperatures moderating to the upper 50s to lower
60s. A weak coastal trough tries to develop along the SE coast
Sunday, and could see light showers move onshore during the late
afternoon.

Sunday Night through Thursday...The combination of a deepening
mid-level trough, mid-level shortwave energy and precipitable
water values that will increase to 1.25 inches or better will
lead to a more unsettled weather pattern with better chances of
showers Sunday night into Mon morning and then off and on
through midday Wednesday ahead of a strong cold front. Per
trends in guidance, the highest QPF and PoPs will be Sunday
night into Mon morning and again Tuesday night into Wed morning.
With the more southerly flow, high temperatures will be above
normal Monday and Tuesday. Highs Monday will be well into the
60s with lower to middle 70s possible Tuesday. The strong cold
front will push through the area late Tue night into early
Wednesday. Much cooler air behind this front, with highs in the
50s Wed, and may struggle in some spots to hit 50 deg Thu.
Widespread lows near or below freezing Thursday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term /through Saturday Evening/...
As of 635 PM Fri...VFR conditions are expected through the TAF
period. Currently mid level ceilings and light rain are present
across most of the airspace and will persist through early
tonight (couldn`t rule out a brief period of MVFR ceilings).
Then, clouds will clear late tonight, and winds will increase
behind a cold front by tomorrow morning. Wind gusts 20-25 mph
are possible tomorrow, but otherwise it will be dry and sunny.

Long Term /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
As of 235 PM Fri...VFR conditions are expected to prevail
Saturday night into Sunday as strong high pressure moves north
of the region. Unsettled weather is expected Sunday through
Wednesday morning with scattered showers and periods of sub-VFR
conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Through Saturday/...
As of 315 PM Friday...A cold front will approach the area this
evening across the waters after midnight with strong CAA ramping
up around daybreak. Winds will generally be around 15 kt or less
much of the night, generally out of the SW to W early and W to
NW later this evening and overnight. Winds become NNE and
increase to around 15-25 kt with higher gusts with the surge
behind the front for much of Saturday. Seas will be around 1-3
ft tonight then build to 4-7 ft Saturday. Continue the SCA for
the waters except the inland rivers.

Long Term /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
As of 235 PM Fri...An active weather pattern through the middle
of next week will result in hazardous boating conditions with
strong winds at times and a prolonged period of elevated seas
AOA 6 ft. Gusty N/NE winds 20-25 kt Sat evening slightly
diminish to 15-20 kt late then veer to SE Sunday. Sunday night
SE winds increase to 20-25 kt and continue into Monday while
becoming S. S/SW winds around 25 kt are expected Mon night and
Tue ahead of a cold front. The front will cross the waters late
Tue night and Wed morning with the flow shifting to NW 15-20 kt.
Based on the current wave model forecasts the only period with
seas below 6 ft will be late Sunday morning into early Sunday
evening, otherwise elevated seas will prevail with seas peaking
at 6-9 ft Mon into Tue evening.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to 4 AM EST Sunday for
     AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 1 PM EST Saturday for AMZ131-
     230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday for
     AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to 10 AM EST Sunday
     for AMZ156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM EST Saturday for
     AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SGK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...JME/CQD
AVIATION...JME/SGK
MARINE...JME/SK