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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KMHX 160840
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
340 AM EST Sat Feb 16 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move south through the area today and an area
of low pressure will pass by to the south. High pressure will
temporarily build in from the north tonight. Several frontal
boundaries and areas of low pressure will affect the region
much of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 340 am Sat...Latest run of GFS/ECMWF show good agreement
between the two, and match up well with current conditions
around the region. Rain shield is just to the west and will
overspread the forecast area through the remainder of the
overnight/early morning hours. Expect widespread coverage this
morning, with strong lift/convergence along boundary sinkinig
south through the forecast area with low pressure passing just
to the south this morning. Categorical PoPs this morning taper
back to chance by later this afternoon as the front sinks
further to the south and the low moves out to sea. Highs temps
will range from the upper 40s to lower 50s along the northern
tier, to the mid/upper 50s across the far south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 340 am Sat...High pressure will wedge in from the north
tonight, allowing for drier and cooler air to filter into the
area. Precip will taper off quickly from northwest to southeast
this evening, with dry conditions after 03Z. Lows will drop into
the 30s inland and upper 30s to lower 40s along the beaches.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 340 AM Saturday... Unsettled weather expected through the
period, as numerous frontal systems and shortwaves impact the
region.

Sunday through Monday...A significant positively-tilted upper level
trough will dig into the SW US, allowing for SW flow aloft and
increased moisture over the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic regions
through early next week. Rain chances will increase Sunday afternoon
as the frontal boundary that`s to the of the area, lifts back up as
a warm front with an area of low pressure developing along the
boundary combined with shortwave energy aloft. The best chances for
precip is Sun night through mid-day Monday. Will continue likely
Pops Sun night, then tapering off Mon afternoon/evening as a cold
front pushes through the area. Expect highs in the in the 50s Sunday
and into the mid 50s to lower 60s Monday.

Tuesday through Friday...The 00z model suite have become into better
agreement compared to past model runs, but uncertainty remains with
timing. Overall, weather conditions will remain unsettled with
additional rain and clouds. The area will be under the influence of
high pressure extending down from the north, but this will be short
lived as an areas of low pressure starts to develop over the Gulf
states Tuesday night, and lifts into the TN/OH Valley Wed while
secondary low develops along the NC coast. As the low lifts towards
the New England coast the associated cold will push through the
area, but timing is uncertain. The latest ECMWF pushes the front
through the area late Thu, while the GFS has the front pushing
through Thursday night into early Friday, but keeps the boundary
stalled near the area and deep moisture in place. Will continue high
chance to likely PoPs through Friday, as fronts and areas of low
pressure linger over the area, combined with shortwave energy. Temps
look mild with highs in the 50s to 60s and overnight lows in the 40s
and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term /through 06Z Sun/...
As of 1 am Sat...VFR expected over the next few hours with only
scattered very light showers. After 07-09Z ceilings quickly lower
to MVFR then IFR as rain shield not too far to the west spreads
across the area. From 12-18Z widespread IFR in moderate to
briefly heavy rain is expected as weak low pressure and a
trailing cold front tracks through the area. After the front
passes through this morning, winds shift to northerly behind
the front with precip shifting off the coast in the afternoon,
though IFR ceilings will linger into early this evening, lifting
a bit to MVFR after 03Z.

Long Term /06Z Sun through Wed/
As of 340 am Sat...Unsettled weather expected through the
period as frontal boundaries and shortwaves moves across the area.
Scattered to numerous showers expected with periods of sub-VFR
through late week.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through tonight/
As of 340 am Sat...Winds will be southwest early this morning
ahead of cold front approaching from the north. Winds will then
quickly become northerly as the front moves south through the
coastal waters this morning into early this afternoon. The surge
behind the front will yield winds of 15-25 kts through today
beginning over the northern waters this morning and spreading to
the southern waters late this afternoon. Seas will build to 4-6
ft today north of Ocracoke, with 3-5 ft south. SCA conditions
will continue across most of the waters this evening with gusty
NNE winds 15-25 kt and seas 4-7 ft continuing behind the front.

Long Term /Sun through Wed/
As of 340 am Sat...Marine conditions will improve Sunday as
winds and seas will diminish to 10 kt or less by Sun afternoon and
seas subsiding to 2-4 ft. Winds will become WNW winds 10-15 kt
Monday with seas 2-4 ft, then NE 15-20 kt Monday night into Tuesday.
Variable winds 10-20 kt Wed as a frontal boundary lingers over the
waters and area of low pressure develops along the coast. A period
of SCA conditions will be possible Mon night through Tue.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 4 AM EST Sunday
     for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 10 PM EST this
     evening for AMZ130-131.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 10 AM EST
     Sunday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST
     Sunday for AMZ156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 4 AM EST Sunday
     for AMZ150.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...HSA/BM
MARINE...HSA/BM