Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 280755

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
255 AM CDT Thu Sep 28 2023

(Issued 255 AM CDT Thu Sep 28 2023)

Today and Tonight:

The upper low that has loitered near the region for the past 3-4
days continues a Midwest Goodbye, slowly exiting stage east. Its
influence will be felt for one more day as cyclonic flow maintains
a chaotic stratocumulus deck. Still seeing a few light showers on
radar from time to time, especially in areas adjacent to the
lake. Will maintain isolated shower wording the rest of tonight
and transition to isolated sprinkles for the daylight hours of
this morning as weak low level lift (finally) wanes by midday.

The stratocu deck will gradually become broken/scatted during the
afternoon hours. An easterly breeze and cloud cover will result in
high temperatures mainly in the mid/upper 60s, with low 70s where
sunshine is observed a bit more.

Weak surface high pressure, a clearing sky and light winds will
set the stage for patchy dense fog tonight as low temperatures dip
into the 50s.



(Issued 255 AM CDT Thu Sep 28 2023)

Friday through Wednesday:

Upper level ridging builds over the Midwest, delivering a warming
trend and what might be the last gasp of summer(ish) temperatures.
A few wrinkles to the forecast were introduced with the 00z suite
of ensembles. The upper level ridge may be a bit weaker initially,
with a few weak shortwaves able to edge into the area Friday
afternoon and again late Saturday night into Sunday. Model spread
is substantial, so this is merely something to keep an eye on and
would, at best, require increasing the chance for showers. For
now, have kept the forecast dry.

Otherwise, the warming trend is the main story with temperatures a
few degrees either side of 80 this weekend into the first half of
next week. The signal for a pattern change continues during the
middle to latter part of next week. Typical timing issues exist in
the ensembles, but there is enough support to increase chances for
showers Wednesday and begin to draw temperatures back into the
70s. Prospects for a more sizable airmass change (bringing
temperatures back to near average) are focused toward the end of
next week.



(Issued 255 AM CDT Thu Sep 28 2023)

A most challenging aviation forecast over the next 6 to 12 hours.
Persistent cyclonic flow around the upper low now centered over
southern Michigan will maintain a stratocumulus deck today.
Ceilings have been frustratingly variable so far this morning,
bouncing between MVFR, IFR, and VFR. Will continue to use TEMPOs
to handle this variability. A few showers and sprinkles will
persist through midday at SBM, MKE, UES, ENW. During the
afternoon, the stratocu deck should become more broken to
scattered with bases lifting to VFR. With clearing continuing into
the evening, concern then shifts to dense fog development for
Thursday night.



(Issued 255 AM CDT Thu Sep 28 2023)

High pressure around 30.3 inches northeast of Lake Superior will
move northeast, resulting in a decreasing pressure gradient,
lessening easterly winds and decreasing waves. Isolated
showers/sprinkles will continue to diminish over the southern half
of the lake this morning. Quiet, dry weather is expected this
weekend into early next week. Winds will generally be light
tonight through Friday night, with south winds increasing over the





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