000
FXUS63 KMKX 060224
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
924 PM CDT Wed Oct 5 2022

.UPDATE...
(Issued 924 PM CDT Wed Oct 5 2022)

Still a slight chance for some sprinkles mainly along the WI/IL
border as the upper level low and associated positive vorticity
advection move through. Most of the moisture is confined around
700mb with drier air at the surface. Our main chance for rain will
be along the cold front that is currently moving through northern
MN. Better pooling of moisture and lift along the front will
result in showers during the morning and afternoon. Behind the
front winds will pick up from the north with gusts around 25-35
mph with the strongest gusts along Lake Michigan.

RAH

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Issued 329 PM CDT Wed Oct 5 2022)

Tonight and Thursday:

There will continue to be chances for sprinkles this afternoon
and evening ahead of an upper level low moving through the
Northern Plains. Rains showers currently moving through Iowa will
continue to advance northeast toward Wisconsin. Dry mid and low
level air will keep much of the area dry and cause these showers
to diminish as it will be hard for any precipitation to make it
to the ground.

Cloud cover is still expected to gradually increase throughout the
evening and into the overnight hours. By Thursday morning, a
strong cold front will begin to advance across the area. Most
locations will reach their high temperature during the late
morning, with temperatures falling throughout the afternoon. This
will give southern Wisconsin a pretty substantial gradient in
highs, with the northwestern portions of our CWA struggling to
break 60, while the southeastern portions may crack 70. There is
still a bit of wiggle room on our high temperatures due to the
timing of the frontal passage, but regardless can expect a nice
temperature gradient.

Scattered showers are expected along the front Thursday, with the
most widespread activity anticipated across the eastern half of
the state. For the eastern half of the state there will be a
chance for a few rumbles of thunder as well. This small chance
will be mostly dependent on daytime heating ahead of the front and
upper level support.

Patterson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Issued 329 PM CDT Wed Oct 5 2022)

Thursday night through Wednesday:

Cold and breezy conditions are expected Thursday night, with low
temperatures expected to fall into the mid to upper 30s with gusty
north to northwest winds. Lake effect rain showers will be
possible Thursday night and Friday morning over the lake and a
few showers may skirt inland for the lakeshore areas. So kept a
small chance for additional showers for the southeastern lakeshore
locations.

The winds will begin to diminish Friday afternoon and high
pressure builds into the area. Highs Friday will be considerable
cooler, with highs around the low 50s. Friday night into Saturday
morning will be another cold one, with lows falling into the upper
20s to lower 30s. Widespread frost is expected with pockets of
hard freeze conditions where temperatures fall into the 20s.

For the start of the weekend, temperatures will begin to moderate.
High pressure will continue to progress southeastward across the
Great Lakes Region and temperatures will climb back into the upper
50s to mid 60s.

Patterson

&&

.AVIATION...
(Issued 924 PM CDT Wed Oct 5 2022)

VFR conditions continue until a cold front brings rain and MVFR
ceilings around 2000 feet mainly between 12-21Z Thursday. Winds
will shift to the north behind the front with gusts around 20 to
25 knots with the strongest winds along Lake Michigan. Some MVFR
ceilings may linger along the lake Thursday night due to lake
effect clouds and maybe a few showers.

RAH

&&

.MARINE...
(Issued 329 PM CDT Wed Oct 5 2022)

Light southwest winds will continue across the lake as high
pressure exits the Great Lakes Region. Early Thursday morning a
cold front sill start to descend down the lake. Winds will
quickly shift to the north following the passage of the front. A
Gale Warning is in effect for Thursday afternoon and evening for
the open waters. Significant wave action is expected during this
time. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for late Thursday
morning through Friday evening for the strong north winds and high
waves.

High pressure is then expected to move into the region Friday. As
high pressure moves into the area, the north winds will gradually
diminish.

Patterson

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Gale Warning...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-
     LMZ868...1 PM Thursday to 1 AM Friday.

     Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-
     LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...4 PM Thursday to 1 AM
     Friday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644...10 AM Thursday to 7 PM
     Friday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ645-LMZ646...3 PM Thursday to 7 PM
     Friday.

&&

$$

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