000
FXUS63 KMKX 161850
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
150 PM CDT Thu Sep 16 2021

.SHORT TERM...
(Issued 150 PM CDT Thu Sep 16 2021)

Tonight through Friday night:

High pressure continues to pull east away from the area from lower
Michigan.The return southerly flow has got underway and will continue
overnight ahead of low pressure in the northern Plains. Progs show any
precipitation associated the approaching low and cold front would hold
off to just northwest of the area later tonight. The 500 millibar
wave/vort axis will move through southern WI Friday afternoon and
perhaps into the early evening hours. This in combo with the lower
level forcing with the frontal boundary, we should see at least
some broken coverage of showers/thunderstorms. MUCAPE values
exceed 1000 j/kg with mid level lapse rates approaching 7c at
times. 0-6 shear looks marginal though not bad. CAPE profile looks
like the taller and skinner variety with the NAM soundings showing
a deep and moist profile. Any lingering activity will start to
head off to the southeast Friday evening with high pressure
building in rather quickly behind the front into northern/central
WI.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Issued 150 PM CDT Thu Sep 16 2021)

Saturday through Sunday night:

High pressure will linger across the areas on saturday along with
a brief period of a low level thermal trough. The high will be on
the move though and will quickly be off into the eastern Great Lakes
by days end. Low level warm advection will then become dominant
later Saturday through Saturday night. 925 temps will be on the
rise into the low or mid 20s celsius (GFS warmest solution). The
influence of broad mid level ridging will dominate and then start
to head east with some energy starting to approach from the south
late Sunday night but still expecting dry weather as the influence
of this wave should stay to our south.

Monday through Tuesday:

A mild and very moist will spread northward into the area with
more of a Gulf connection coming into play with higher RH/dew
points working in within this flow. Expecting a good deal of
cloud cover in this pattern with rain chances on the increase.
Best rain chances and even some thunder look to arrive Monday
night into at least Tuesday morning when influence of mid level
wave and lower level front provide ample lift. Cold advection may
get underway as soon as Tuesday afternoon.

Tuesday night through Thursday:

Potent cold advection will be underway at the outset of this period
with likely the coolest airmass of the season poised to rush in on
gusty NNW winds. With mid level flow remaining cyclonic may still
see some showers from time to time on Wednesday. High pressure
will start to shift off to the east on Thursday with a developing
waa regime nudging the thermal trough off to the east.

&&

.AVIATION...
(Issued 150 PM CDT Thu Sep 16 2021)

Quiet weather will continue tonight between departed high pressure
and an approaching low. Southerly winds will prevail most places
tonight. An approaching frontal boundary will bring the chance of
showers and thunderstorms Friday into Friday evening.

&&

.MARINE...
(Issued 150 PM CDT Thu Sep 16 2021)

Southerly winds will continue overnight between departed high
pressure and an approaching low. This will bringing the highest
wave activity to northern and central portions of the lake. Winds
will become north to northeast later Friday into Saturday as a
cold front sinks southward and stalls over the southern end of the
lake. There will be a chance of a few showers or storms Friday
afternoon into the early evening hours.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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