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FXUS62 KTAE 231027

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
627 AM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019

[Through 12Z Wednesday]

Patchy IFR-MVFR vsbys have developed in the eastern FL Big Bend
and south-central Georgia. These conditions are expected to
improve quickly after sunrise. After that, the main concern for
the period will be TSRA ahead of and along an approaching cold
front. These storms could reduce vsbys and cigs to MVFR for
several hours. Winds will mostly be from the southwest this
morning, becoming northwesterly and then light overnight as the
front enters and then stalls over the region.



.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

An upper level trough over the Great Lakes region will deepen today,
pushing a surface cold front into the southeast. This front will dig
southeast into the tri-state area through the day, with its forward
movement slowing in the evening. Deep layer and low level shear will
be weak (0-6 km shear of 20 kts, 0-1 km shear of 10 kts), so these
storms aren`t forecast to be particularly organized. Afternoon
instability will be moderate though (MLCAPE of around 1500-2000
J/kg), so a few of these storms could produce strong to severe wind
gusts. SPC has clipped the northeast corner of our CWA in a marginal
risk for severe weather this afternoon, the main threat being
damaging wind gusts.

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Thursday]...

In the upper levels a deep trough will be over the Southeast. At the
surface a cold front will move through the region tonight and
tomorrow stalling over the Northern Peninsula on Thursday. Showers
and thunderstorms will be widespread tonight with POPs of 60 to 85
percent. Drier air will move into the northwesternmost counties on
tomorrow afternoon. Elsewhere, POPs will remain high up to 90
percent. Tomorrow night and Thursday the dry air behind the front
will keep the wet weather confined mainly south and east of a line
from Panama City to Tallahassee to Valdosta. Highs will be in the
80s. Lows will be in the lower 70s and upper 60s.

.LONG TERM [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...

In the upper levels a weak extension of the Bermuda-Azores high
will be over the Florida Peninsula. At the surface the (weakening)
stalled frontal boundary will remain over North Florida through
Saturday. Otherwise weak high pressure will be in place. POPs will
be more seasonable at 30 to 50 percent with most of the
convection in the afternoon and evening hours. Highs will be in
the upper 80s and lower 90s. Lows will be near 70.


Light southwesterly winds will become more moderate today. A frontal
boundary will linger over the waters mid to late week. During this
time the western half of the waters may have northerly winds and the
eastern waters may be southwesterly. A wet pattern will remain in
place through Saturday.


A summer cold front is on the way, which should bring a good soaking
rain to the area and preclude any red flag conditions. That said, as
the front stalls out, light winds and low mixing heights across the
FL Big Bend could lead to low dispersions Wednesday. Patchy fog is
possible this morning and tomorrow morning.


Local rivers are below action stage. A wet pattern will be in place
through Saturday. Forecast rainfall totals through Thursday night
are 1 to 2 inches in most locations. 2 to 4 inches is forecast
through Thursday night in Taylor, Lafayette and Dixie Counties.
Flash flooding is not expected but ponding of water on roadways and
flooding of low-lying or poor drainage areas is possible.


Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.



Tallahassee   89  72  85  69  87 /  70  70  70  40  40
Panama City   85  74  84  72  86 /  60  80  60  30  30
Dothan        86  69  86  68  88 / 100  70  30  10  20
Albany        88  71  86  69  88 / 100  80  40  20  20
Valdosta      89  71  81  69  85 /  70  70  80  50  40
Cross City    87  74  84  72  85 /  40  70  90  80  70
Apalachicola  86  75  84  73  85 /  40  80  80  50  40




NEAR TERM...Nguyen
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