593
FXUS62 KTAE 091038
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
638 AM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 631 AM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

- Recurring rounds of nighttime and morning fog will continue through
  early this week. Use caution on your morning commutes should
  you encounter dense fog.

- Few strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast this afternoon
  into the evening. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary
  concern.

- Low (less than 30%) chance of 1" or more of rain with a cold
  front that`s forecast to arrive Wednesday night into Thursday.
  We`ll continue to monitor the potential for strong to severe
  storms with this system as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 116 AM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Fog has taken its time to develop so far this evening with only
patchy dense fog so far. Mid-level clouds have continued to
disrupt fog formation, but we should see more widespread fog
develop over the next several hours. While no land-based Dense Fog
Advisory is currently in effect, one may be necessary later in the
morning.

A weak upper-level disturbance will move across the southeast with
the left exit region of the upper jet over top of us this
afternoon and evening. While neither this nor the sea breeze this
afternoon will be incredible sources of lift, but a couple
isolated storms could still develop this afternoon, mainly north
of I-10 and west of the Flint River. Steep mid-level lapse rates
and plenty of instability will be present as well as good 3-6 km
shear. Thus, a couple of these storms could be strong to briefly
severe with large hail and strong wind gusts. Otherwise, highs
will rise to the low to mid 80s.

This evening, we`ll have to watch an MCS upstream in northern or
central AL that may scrape the northern tier of our area after
sunset. Instability will be waning, so the main driver would be
cold pool dynamics. If it makes it to our area, then the threat of
gusty winds and hail would continue into the late evening, mainly
north of US 82. SPC has outlined southeast AL and adjacent
southwest GA in a Marginal Risk of severe weather (level 1 of 5).

Otherwise, another round of fog is expected tonight, locally dense
in spots. Lows will be in the mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 116 AM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Strong ridging builds overhead Tuesday into Wednesday, leading to
hotter temperatures and lower rain chances. Highs both days will
be in the mid to upper 80s (except near 80 along the coast). This
is near record high territory. Fog continues to be a nuisance
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

The next cold front arrives late Wednesday into Thursday. The
timing overall has slowed a bit from previous forecasts. It`s
still rather uncertain how much severe weather will materialize.
There is ample shear, but the instability is lacking in most
modeling. Also, unless the southern stream shortwave is a bit more
amplified or out of phase, most of the forcing will be well to our
north. Stay tuned to later forecasts.

Cooler air arrives behind the front, albeit briefly. Highs will
drop into the upper 60s to mid 70s Thursday and Friday, then
rebound back to the 80s over the weekend. Lows will also slide
into the 40s, slowly rising back to the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 AM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

IFR/LIFR conditions are ongoing across most TAF sites. These
restrictions should improve back to MVFR/VFR by 15z. Through the
remainder of the TAF period, showers and storms are possible
across the northern areas, DHN and ABY, this afternoon/evening
with some of the stronger storms potentially containing hail.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 116 AM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

High pressure remains in control of the northeastern Gulf through at
least Tuesday. Sea fog remains the main concern until then with
gentle to moderate southerly to southeasterly breezes. Southerly
winds increase Wednesday into Wednesday night ahead of a strong cold
front forecast to swing through the northeastern Gulf. Advisory
level winds are expected in the wake of the front Thursday, and
we`ll have to monitor the potential for gale force gusts.
Nevertheless, marine conditions deteriorate during the latter half
of the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 116 AM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Generally southwesterly transport winds around 5-10 mph will
continue through Tuesday, increasing to 10-20 mph on Wednesday.
Dispersions will be good away from the coast, where influence from
the cooler waters remains. With the increase in winds Wednesday,
some areas of high dispersions are anticipated. Scattered showers
and storms are possible today mainly across southeast AL, southwest
GA, and the inland FL Panhandle. These storms could contain gusty,
erratic winds, hail, and dangerous lightning strikes. Rain chances
decrease for Tuesday and Wednesday before the next front arrives
late Wednesday night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 116 AM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Locally heavy downpours are possible in some storms today, but
flooding concerns are not anticipated. Rain with the system
Wednesday into Thursday will likely not lead to flood concerns
either as storms will be moving rather quickly. NBM has a 30-50%
chance of seeing 1 inch of rain or more, but the LREF (comprised
of GEFS, GEPS, and EPS) only has a less than 30% chance. For now,
will lean toward the lower guidance given the distant forcing and
fast movement of storms. Drought continues to be the main
hydrologic impact. For more on drought impacts locally, visit
www.weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   85  64  86  62 /  10  10   0   0
Panama City   79  65  80  64 /  10  10   0   0
Dothan        83  65  85  64 /  30  20   0   0
Albany        84  64  85  62 /  10  30   0   0
Valdosta      86  63  87  61 /  10  10   0   0
Cross City    86  60  88  60 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  75  65  76  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk from 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning
     through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Young
LONG TERM....Young
AVIATION...Dobbs
MARINE...Young
FIRE WEATHER...Young
HYDROLOGY...Young