183
FXUS63 KFGF 131130
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
630 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of frost are expected this morning across portions of
  northwest Minnesota and northeastern North Dakota.
  Temperatures in the low to mid 30s are possible.

- Patchy smoke remains in place across the area through much of
  the day ahead of our next system that moves into the region
  tonight into Tuesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 630 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Coldest temperatures this morning are near Devils Lake and
generally along the International Border, where low 30s have
been observed. A few cold spots have been noted in northwest
Minnesota as well, with temps generally in the middle 30s.
Lingering surface smoke is bringing visibility down to 4 miles
around Fergus Falls and Wadena, with mid to upper level smoke
elsewhere not impacting visibility.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 354 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

An active pattern prevails through much of this week as several
shortwaves traverse the region. Upper flow from 500mb up to 300mb
remains rather progressive, with a substantially more amplified
pattern from 500mb down to 700mb. For today, dry air remains in
place across the area, along with low relative humidity. RH values
could fall into the lower 20 percent range once more in some areas;
however, winds will be relatively light, generally in the range of 7
to 12 mph.

A slow moving shortwave will bring rain chances into the region
starting early Tuesday, then persist through the day on Wednesday
before tapering off Thursday. A good portion of the area has a 30
percent chance to see 0.50 inch of rain from this first system. An
isolated thunderstorm is possible; however, there is little, if any,
support for strong storms.

A second system is being highlighted by ensemble clusters starting
late Thursday. The pattern is very similar, as a weak H7 trough
traverses the area. This system has a 20 percent chance of bringing
0.50 inch of rain to portions of the region, with low confidence in
the exact location. A few thunderstorms are possible, with the best
chances along the ND/SD border.

Heading into the weekend, another upper low is showing up in several
sources of guidance; however, confidence is low as ensemble members
show a good bit of disagreement. In general, the pattern remains
somewhat close to what we are expecting through much of next week,
with chances for showers and thunderstorms expected. For the
weekend, there seems to be a more favorable setup for perhaps a
stronger storm or two.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 630 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

VFR conditions prevail at all TAF sites through the period.
Lingering near-surface smoke is bringing minimal restrictions to
visibility, mainly to KFAR this morning. Surface smoke is
expected to lift this morning as mixing takes shape. Mid level
smoke remains likely through much of the day, especially for
KBJI and KTVF. Winds will slowly shift to the east through the
day, generally remaining in the 7 to 12 knot range.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for NDZ006>008-016-
     054.
MN...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for MNZ004>009-
     013>017.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Lynch
DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...Lynch