Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 230900

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
400 AM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

Broad upper level trough was over the eastern Pacific and western
US. An upper level ridge was over the Northern Plains. A short wave
was located over eastern MT. Thermal ridge will shift east across the
area today and produce warm advection precip today and tonight.
Heaviest snow is expected to fall over the Sheyenne River Valley.
Snow amounts will taper off to the east and north. Little or no snow
is expected for Lake of the Woods county for today and tonight.
Winds will up for today but wet snow is not expected to create any
blowing snow issues.

Winter storm warning continues for the western and southern zones
for mainly this afternoon and tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

Departing snow in the east with light freezing rain or rain west of
the valley possible Saturday as winter storm impacting region in the
short term pulls out of the area.  Will see a break before more
wintry weather moves across the Dakotas late Saturday night into
Sunday.  H850 temps in the 0C to 4C range approach western zones
late Sat night and a wintry mix or freezing rain is possible to
start off the day on Sunday.  There is a better chance for ice
accumulation Sunday morning that with the departing system on
Saturday, but temperatures will increase through the day and may
allow a change over to mostly rain for Sunday afternoon. Expect a
wet and cool Sunday afternoon.  As the system departs and temps once
again fall below zero, a wintry mix of freezing rain or snow is
possible again Monday morning.  Wet weather continues through the
day on Monday with a drier and warmer airmass arriving for mid-week,
with temps ranging from the upper 30s to low 40s Wednesday.  Chances
for some light snow increase again by the end of the week as temps
fall back into the mid 30s during the day and low 20s at night.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

Ceilings have generally been holding in the VFR range, with the
exception of KDVL. Think these ceilings will hold into Friday
morning, until lower ceilings begin to spread in from central ND
associated with the winter storm. Wind speeds have lowered a bit
in model guidance, so am doubting there will be much blowing snow,
expect possibly at KDVL. However the snow may be heavy at times
once it gets here, which appears to be mid to late afternoon at
KDVL/KGFK/KFAR. KGFK may be more on the fringe, with the heavier
bands going down from KDVL to KFAR. So conditions should be worst
from 00z to 06z in this TAF period.


ND...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM CDT
     Saturday for NDZ007-008-016-027-030-054.

     Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM CDT
     Saturday for NDZ026-029-039-053.

     Winter Storm Warning from 10 AM this morning to 7 AM CDT
     Saturday for NDZ006-014-015-024-028-038-049-052.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM CDT
     Saturday for MNZ001-002-027-031.

     Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM CDT
     Saturday for MNZ003-029-030-040.



LONG TERM...Speicher
AVIATION...Godon is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.