Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 141501
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1001 AM CDT Mon May 14 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Mon May 14 2018

Tweaked temps and dewpoints into early afternoon. Made minimum RHs
slightly lower for the day. Winds were also tweaked with frontal
boundary moving south through the area. No other changes at this
update.

UPDATE Issued at 705 AM CDT Mon May 14 2018

Lowered dew pts a bit more in the northern areas as current values
and upstream values are trending lower.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Mon May 14 2018

Surface trough dropping south thru the fcst area today with a
north wind behind it. Trough/wind shift line was near Baudette to
Grand Forks and Devils Lake. This wind shift is a bit faster than
HRRR/NAM. Wind shift/trough will be over the far southern fcst
area mid aftn and with aftn heating and temps 78-83 along the
boundary enough instability present for a risk of a shower or
two. Short range models indicate best chance Alexandria to
Brainerd to near Duluth. Did include a short period of low pops
for rw- 20z-22z in the far southeastern fcst area.

Will monitor dew pts and RH values today as drier air works
southward. Winds today do indicate some potential for gusts in the
15-18kt range in the far north with RH values near 20 pct. May do
an SPS for near critical fire wx conditions in the far north.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Mon May 14 2018

Dry conditions will continue to start the period with another day of
increased fire weather conditions for Tuesday. Surface ridging
across the northern Plains to start the work week will finally begin
to push off to the east with southwesterly return flow increasing
throughout the day Tuesday. Warmer, drier air will filter into the
region with high temperatures expected to reach into the upper 70s
or low 80s. Combined with dew points in the 30s (maybe even upper
20s), relative humidity values could dip into the 20 to 25 percent
range. The area with the most concern looks to be across the north
where winds look to be the highest (20 to 25 mph with gusts possibly
30+ mph). All in all, another day of near critical, if not critical
at times, fire weather conditions.

By midweek, surface low pressure across eastern Montana/Wyoming
becomes better organized with a warm front extending eastward into
our region. This frontal boundary will bring even warmer air into
the region for Wednesday with highs in the 80s, maybe even nearing
the 90 degree mark for some, with dewpoints pushing back into the
50s.

The second half of the work week will bring at least some much
needed rain to the area. The aforementioned warm front looks to
stall across the region on Thursday with a few upper waves moving
through before a cold front tracks from west to east sometime on
Friday. Cooler conditions will follow in the wake of this front with
highs back down in the 60s to end the week before moderating a bit
through the weekend as dry conditions return.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 705 AM CDT Mon May 14 2018

VFR thru the pd. Winds becoming north-northeast today 8 to 15 kts
then light tonight.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 338 AM CDT Mon May 14 2018

Drier air working south into NE ND/nrn RRV today combined with
wind gust potential of 15-18 kts may lead to near critical fire wx
conditions this aftn. A bit higher chance of this occurring Tues
aftn as winds will be stronger....gusts 25-30kts in the far north.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JH
SHORT TERM...Riddle
LONG TERM...Lee
AVIATION...Riddle
FIRE WEATHER...Riddle



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