Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

FXUS63 KFGF 191449

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
949 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

Issued at 939 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

Adjustments made to match current radar trends and tweaked temps
up a bit along and east of the valley. Model soundings show a
relatively weak and shallow dry layer to overcome in the valley
this morning as radar echoes slowly advance east. Road temps will
be above freezing all day in the valley as snowfall rates will be
too light to overcome the warming of the pavement from solar
insolation. Expecting snow accumulations to increase with sun down
with a 1 to 3 inches most likely, those higher amounts in the
south and lower amounts in the north.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 351 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

Upper level ridge was over the area this morning ad will shift east.
Radar indicated light snow was moving north and east into the far
western zones. Snow will continue to move east across the area
today and tonight.

Water vapor loop indicated a short wave over central MT. Short wave
is forecast to move across southern MAN tonight. Dry pocket in tow
around 500 hpa should shut down precip over eastern ND tonight.
Surface high pressure over northern MAN will attempt to dry out the
lower layers while mid and upper layers will moisten.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 351 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

Tuesday...The main shortwave will be impacting mainly the
southeastern counties by Tuesday morning, with the greatest
probabilities and QPF in that area. There will be another
reinforcing shortwave bringing additional snow chances for the rest
of the CWA throughout the day, although amounts look very light.
Snow should taper off to a few flurries by Tuesday night.

Wednesday and Thursday...The region will be in a bit of a lull with
northwest flow aloft and high pressure to our northeast.
Temperatures should rise back above seasonal averages to top out in
the upper 30s and 40s.

Friday and Saturday...The upper ridge axis shifts eastward and a
fairly vigorous shortwave enters the Northern Plains. The main
surface low will be well to the south, but the model solutions all
have quite a bit of precip along the mid level baroclinic zone
extending northwest to southeast across the Dakotas and MN. Ensemble
percentiles have very high Pwat values, and max out QPF in
comparison to climatology. There are also indications of
frontogensis and banding potential. The main question will be how
much falls as rain and how much as snow with exact temperatures. The
potential for some heavy snow amounts remains, although amounts are
very uncertain thanks to temperatures.

Sunday...Another shortwave approaches although the GFS is much more
vigorous than the ECWMF. Mass fields are quite a bit different, and
with high levels of uncertainty will leave the blended solution with
mostly chance POPs.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 659 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

Generally IFR conditions were occurring under precip areas on radar.
Outside the radar echoes, conditions transition from MVFR to VFR
across the rest of the forecast area. Expect IFR conditions to shift
mostly east today across the southern zones as precip shifts east.
Expect MVFR cigs across the rest of the area for today and




AVIATION...JH is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.