Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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788
FXUS63 KMPX 270012
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
712 PM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

Sky should clear to the east early with winds diminishing. The
next frontal system is fast on its heals and will sweep through
late tonight to the northwest and exit the southeast CWA Friday
morning. Strong northwest winds expected in its wake with just a
small chance of showers mainly over northwest WI region.
Temperatures will warm close to readings of today/mid 50s to some
lower 60s to the southeast.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

The longer term trends continue to show warming ahead of the
frontal system that is currently forecast to move through around
Tuesday.

Ahead of the front, southerly flow increases Sunday and a weak
short wave lifts northeast with the surface warm front Sunday
night and Monday. Instability/Moisture increases ahead of the
warm front and may be enough to generate some convection along the
LLJ. Temperatures should warm through the the 60s to some lower
70s possible Sunday and into the 70s for Monday, which looks like
the warmest day of the period.

The warm front shifts off to the east Monday with the front
moving through Tuesday. Will continue low chance PoP for thunder
with the system at this time. The unsettled pattern will continue
into the later part of next week but we should see drying develop
as upper ridging/warmer air tries to return. The GFS is most
bullish in driving the western CONUS ridge east into next weekend.
The ECMWF not so much as it retains more of the eastern CONUS
trough and northwest flow across the western Great Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 712 PM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

Friday looks to be a repeat of today with a cold front moving
through in the morning, with gusty northwest winds in its wake
through the afternoon. Once again, atmosphere looks too dry to
support much precip, though with the surface low going from the
Arrowhead to central WI, there is a better shot as seeing some
light rain out at RNH/EAU, but the HRRR has been trending drier
out in west central WI, so kept even a VCSH mention out at those
locations. Timing of from from previous TAFs looked good with
minimal changes made to when northwest winds develop. Unlike today
though, forecast soundings show enough moisture in the wake of the
front to where a sct-bkn cu field between 4k and 5k feet looks
likely across eastern MN and western WI.

KMSP...Models are all pretty similar in showing next cold fropa
occurring right around 14z or 15z. Cu field will arrive from the
north in the afternoon, but thinking by then we will have mixed
deep enough to where cigs will remain VFR.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. Winds N 5 kts or less bcmg SE.
SUN...VFR. Winds S increasing to 15G25kts.
MON...Chc MVFR/-shra/-tsra. Winds S 15G25kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

Will leave Red Flag Warning going with strong northwest wind to 40
mph over parts of west central MN. Lowest RH level seen has been
26 percent. Still have strong subsidence moving through that
region per latest satellite water vapor imagery. Still could see
RH levels dropping off around 25% by late afternoon. Winds are
expected to diminish quite rapidly after 7 PM.

Windy conditions will develop in the wake of the next cold front
Friday morning to the west and region wide in the afternoon. May
not be as strong s today and RH levels drop off through the upper
20s to lower 30s percent. Continues the elevated fore weather
conditions for Friday afternoon. Low RH levels continue into
Saturday but winds will be light under surface ridging. We will
have to monitor Sunday afternoon as winds increase again ahead of
the frontal system developing to the west. RH levels are expected
to drop off into the upper 20s/low 30s percent again and it will
be modulated by how quickly we can advect higher dewpoints into
the area.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for MNZ041-042-
     047>049-054>057-064-065-073.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MPG
FIRE WEATHER...DWE



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