Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45
FXUS63 KMPX 120148

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
848 PM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018

Issued at 848 PM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018

Updated to include 06Z aviation discussion below.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018

Inverted trough axis very slowly working through the area today,
with the entire forecast area socked in under overcast stratus and
many locations along the actual boundary still seeing widespread
fog.  By this afternoon, winds area wide have finally turned
northwesterly, but it`s going to take most of the night to dry out.
The stratus shield extends back into eastern South Dakota through
northwest MN.

High pressure will continue settling into the Dakotas this evening,
becoming stationary and keeping our area dry and under northwest
flow through the period. With the upper trough over the Great Lakes
tomorrow, cyclonically curved flow and a negative cu rule point
toward redevelopment of stratocu late morning through the afternoon
in western Wisconsin and eastern Minnesota.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018

The long term period continues to look dry until late this week,
with warming temperatures and an ensuing melt still anticipated.
The high pressure area mentioned in the short term discussion will
very slowly drift south through the middle of the week, keeping us
seasonably cool on Tuesday thanks to continued northerly flow.  On
Wednesday, the ridge axis will move through and winds will begin to
turn southwesterly.  Timing is a little bit in question, but as of
now temperatures look to warm into the 40s.

There are some differences in the strength of the late week ridge.
The GFS certainly has a more amplified ridge moving through as
compared to the ECMWF.  Nonetheless, most guidance would point to
temepratures warming at least a little above average.  The average
high on Tuesday is 40 degrees, and it looks like the end of the week
will be 5 or so degrees above normal.

In terms of precip potential for the end of the week and weekend,
the GFS does bring showers to the area, and even negative LI`s into
southern MN.  But the EC does not agree and would keep us dry right
through the end of the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 848 PM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018

Didn`t make any substantive changes from earlier forecast, with
just minor adjustments to timing of diurnal cu. High pressure will
settle over the area through the period, with VFR conditions and
northwesterly winds most of the time.

KMSP...Main uncertainty is whether we`ll see some BKN marginal
MVFR ceilings for a short time on Monday afternoon. Continued to
leave it out for now.

.Tuesday...VFR. Northwest wind around 5 kt.
.Tuesday night...VFR. Variable wind less than 5 kt.
.Wednesday...VFR. Mainly west wind around 5 kt.
.Wednesday night...VFR. North wind less than 5 kt.
.Thursday...VFR. Variable wind less than 5 kt.




AVIATION... is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.