378
FXUS63 KMPX 140526
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1226 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Smoke should push south through tonight, improving air quality.

- A good chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday,
  especially Wednesday afternoon thru Wednesday night. The
  threat for severe weather and flooding is low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Smoke continues to plague us as the mid-to-upper level flow has been
favorable for transporting wildfire smoke from the active fires in
British Columbia. The Air Quality Alert has been extended until 11
PM tonight before CAMs finally show the majority of the smoke
pushing south of MN. Skies will remain mostly clear of clouds
through Tuesday afternoon with tonight`s lows dropping into the 40s
while Tuesday`s highs will again be similar to today`s. However,
cloud cover will slowly build from west to east Tuesday evening
through Wednesday morning. These clouds will be followed by a
shortwave trough which will move over the Rockies Tuesday night and
slowly approach MN/WI Wednesday evening. Isolated showers should
travel into western MN during Wednesday morning and continue moving
eastward throughout the day, with coverage and intensity likely
growing throughout Wednesday afternoon as daytime heating occurs.
Isolated thunderstorms are also possible in the afternoon and
evening, evidence by a couple hundred J/kg of MUCAPE in forecast
soundings. However, the still meager CAPE and lack of organization
of this wave does not give much hope for severe weather.

Temperatures will trend upwards for the final days of this week.
Currently, we have highs well into the 70s for the entire CWA for
Friday while Saturday most of southern MN will have a good shot at
lower 80s. These warmer temperatures will occur due to an 850 hPa
thermal ridge building north into the Northern High Plains ahead of
an incoming upper-level jet from the Pacific Northwest. However,
large disparities exist between model guidance on how this jetstreak
is handled as it approaches the Northern Plains. The GFS and GEFS
are able to dig a shortwave as it crosses the Rockies, potentially
leading to a more well-developed surface low in the Northern Plains
Saturday. The ECMWF, EPS, and (to an extent) GEM keep the flow more
zonal through the first half of the weekend, leading to better
chances of a more light, disorganized precipitation. After Saturday,
model disagreement really grows as the jetstreak settles briefly
over the Northern CONUS early next week. Subtle disturbances within
the flow will affect MN/WI but timing and eventual precipitation
placement is greatly uncertain. The NBM has basically smeared 20-30%
PoPs across the region Saturday through the end of the period due to
the said uncertainty. As we get closer to the weekend, details
should begin to iron themselves out but we`ll have to wait for now.

If you are wanting a return of more active weather, long-range
ensembles once again favor a trough forming over the western CONUS
during the last week or so of May. This signals greater potential
for synoptic cyclones to be ejecting somewhere east of the Rockies
into the Plains, though, details of such features this far in
advance are fruitless to be covered at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

What remains of the wildfire smoke aloft will push out early
this morning, resulting in mostly clear skies throughout the
day. VFR is expected throughout with FEW250 the most in terms of
cloud cover until the final few hours where more clouds move in.
Winds remain NE to E at or below 10kts.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR/MVFR, -SHRA late. Wind SE 10-15kts.
THU...VFR, chc MVFR/-SHRA. Wind NW 10-15kts.
FRI...VFR, chc MVFR/-TSRA. Wind SW 10-15kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CTG
AVIATION...TDH