Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 260325

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1025 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

The short term concern remains timing of the cold front and
increasing northwest winds and lower RH in the wake of the front.

Fire weather concerns remain over west central MN into Thursday
afternoon as drier air works into the region behind the cold
front. We currently have upper 20s for lower RH across much of
that area for now. We did mention the increased fire danger over
the west for Thursday afternoon in the fire weather forecast.

Temperatures were slow to warm under the steep subsidence
inversion this afternoon. We may see readings mix to the lower 60s
over mainly the east Thursday afternoon as the front exits the

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

The longer term concerns remain fire weather potential Friday
afternoon across western Minnesota. Another frontal passage Friday
morning will bring in increasing northwest winds and lower
dewpoints to that region of the state once again. We will nee to
monitor model trends concerning dewpoints/RH. Showers will be
possible ahead of the frontal boundary/weak surface low. Moisture
will be limited but lower end PoPs look reasonable at this time.

Following this system we will see cooler temperatures through
Friday. Warmer air should be on the rebound into Sunday as the
upper flow pattern turns more southwest drawing in warmer/moist
more air from the south. We should see more widespread highs in
the 70s Sunday and continuing into early next week. Thunder threat
increase as well, as short waves work northeast in that flow
pattern into southern MN. At the present time, those chances look
best Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday with the passage of a cold


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1025 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Only change made to TAFs was to remove the VCSH mentions. The HRRR
has been trending drier with the precip along the front all night,
so removed what mentions we have. Timing for the FROPA still
looked good.

KMSP...It looks to be poor timing for the shift to northwest winds
as it will be occurring during the morning push. We look to go
from a 200 direction around to 330 over the course of about 2
hours. This 2 hour shift looks to begin around 12z or 13z.

FRI...VFR. Winds NW 15G25kts.
SAT...VFR. Winds N, bcmg E late 5 kts or less.
SUN...VFR. Winds SSE 15G25kts.




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