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000
FXUS63 KMPX 010827
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
327 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023

.DISCUSSION...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023

KEY MESSAGES:

- Blizzard conditions, including snowfall rates of 1-2 inches per
  hour, will end by daybreak.

- Strong warm air advection on Sunday may produce highs of at least
  50 degrees for points south and east of the Twin Cities.

- Another multi-faceted low pressure system will produce mixed wintry
  precipitation Tuesday through Wednesday.

- Below normal temperatures expected most of next week.

TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...As of early this morning, the low pressure
center of this powerful mid-latitude cyclone is located over
southern WI with its cold front extending SW over the mid-Mississippi
River Valley into the OK/TX Panhandle region. The deep negatively-
tilted upper level trough is aiding in a persistent band of heavy
snow from NW Wisconsin through the Twin Cities metro, producing
snowfall rates of 1-2 in/hr. The western edge, however, is steadily
shifting eastward, resulting in a stark difference in conditions from
where it is snowing to where it isn`t. Where snow has ended,
visibilities have rapidly improved to 6-10 miles with even some
breaks in the overcast coverage. As of 3am, have been able to clear
northern and western portions of the WFO MPX coverage area from
winter weather headlines, with the expectation that the remainder of
the counties in the Blizzard Warning will be able to be cleared from
the headlines by its scheduled 7am expiration, if not sooner. The low
till quickly shift into southern New England by later today as high
pressure moves across the Upper Midwest, allowing for sunshine by
late morning through the rest of the daylight hours. Clear skies will
remain in place through this evening, but clouds will return late
tonight into Sunday morning as a clipper-type system shifts east
along the international border. The leading-edge warm front of this
system will extend to the southeast, with just enough isentropic
lift and moisture to potentially briefly produce rain/snow showers
over western WI. Chances are low and QPF will be only a few
hundredths at best, so if this precipitation occurs, it will be of
little consequence. As the warm front lifts north and ridging aloft
glides through the region, much warmer temperatures are expected for
Sunday with highs in the 30s and 40s, potentially the lower 50s
along the IA border and around the Eau Claire area. A dry cold front
will pass through the region Monday, resulting in a negligible drop
in temperatures for parts of western and central MN but otherwise
very similar to Sunday.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...Another well-organized low pressure center,
also containing a wintry mix of precipitation and stronger winds, is
expected to impact the Upper Midwest starting Tuesday morning and
lasting through Wednesday afternoon. This system will have its origin
over CO/KS and, like the current system, be picked up by a large
upper level trof moving onshore the west CONUS coast. The system is
progged to shift northeast to near the Twin Cities by Wednesday
morning with central pressure below 990mb, then continue moving
northeast into southeast Canada by Thursday morning. The key factors
will again be its track, thermal gradient and any low-level warm
layers to cause p-types other than rain or snow. This system, much
like the current one, will also have a high moisture content, leading
to the potential for QPF in the 0.50-1.00" range, and potentially
accumulating snow for at least western and central MN. It is still
too early to determine specifics but this is where attention will be
turned as the current system winds down. Behind this midweek system,
high pressure will move expand over much of the central CONUS,
allowing for at least a couple days to dry out in the latter part of
the week. Temperatures will overall remain below normal for the
latter portion of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1122 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

IFR/LIFR conditions with heavy snow and blowing snow overnight, but
this will taper off from west to east and by morning most locations
will have VFR conditions. Northerly winds will decrease toward
morning, and take on a more southwest wind direction.

KMSP...
Heavy snow will continue through around 08Z, and then snow should
begin to taper off and should exit the region by 10 or 11Z. Northerly
winds will taper off on Saturday and become more southwest by
evening.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts becoming light/variable.
SUN...VFR. Wind S becoming W 10-15 kts.
MON...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Blizzard Warning until 7 AM CDT this morning for Anoka-Blue Earth-
     Brown-Carver-Chisago-Dakota-Faribault-Goodhue-Hennepin-Isanti-
     Le Sueur-Martin-McLeod-Meeker-Nicollet-Ramsey-Redwood-Renville-
     Rice-Scott-Sherburne-Sibley-Steele-Waseca-Washington-Watonwan-
     Wright.

     Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM CDT this morning for Freeborn.

WI...Blizzard Warning until 7 AM CDT this morning for Barron-Chippewa-
     Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JPC
AVIATION...JRB